Hertsmere (UK Parliament constituency)

Hertsmere
County constituency for the House of Commons
Boundary of Hertsmere in Hertfordshire
Location of Hertfordshire within England
County	Hertfordshire
Electorate	70,772 (December 2010) [1]
Major settlements	Borehamwood
Current constituency
Created	1983
Member of Parliament	Oliver Dowden (Conservative Party)
Seats	One
Created from	South Hertfordshire and South West Hertfordshire [2]

Hertsmere is a constituency ^{[n 1]} in Hertfordshire, England, represented in the House of Commons since 2015 by Oliver Dowden, who currently serves as deputy prime minister. ^{[n 2]}

Constituency profile

Just beyond the northwestern boundary of Greater London and with fast railway links into the capital, Hertsmere is a Parliamentary constituency in the Home Counties. The constituency is in the London Commuter Belt, largely inside London's orbital motorway, the M25, and within the London green belt, in the South-West of Hertfordshire. Political consultancy Electoral Calculus classifies the constituency's population as broadly Conservative 'kind yuppies'. ^[3] Hertsmere has the third-highest Jewish population of any UK Parliamentary constituency. ^[4]

According to the census for England and Wales, the population of the Hertsmere local authority area (which presently corresponds to the area of the Parliamentary constituency) has increased by 7.8%, from around 100,000 in 2011 to 107,800 in 2021. This is higher than the overall increase for England (6.6%), where the population grew by nearly 3.5 million to 56,489,800, but slightly lower than the increase for the East of England region that Hertsmere belongs to (8.3%). The fastest growing age group in Hertsmere is the over-65s, which has increased since 2011 by 17.6%, close to the overall rate of growth for this age group in England (20.1%). ^[5]

Parts of the constituency are among the most prosperous in Britain but 2015 data from the English Multiple deprivation index for the Borough of Hertsmere shows widely varying levels of deprivation, with overall deprivation levels – on a scale from 1 (the most deprived) to 32,844 (the least deprived) – ranging from 3,049 for Borehamwood Cowley Hill, the most deprived area in Hertfordshire and in the 10% most deprived nationally, to 32,695 for Bushey Heath, in the 1% least deprived. ^[6]

The constituency of Hertsmere has returned a Conservative Member of Parliament at every general election since its creation and has been a safe seat almost throughout, with majorities ranging from 3,075 in 1997 (the election in which Labour won 418 Parliamentary seats, the largest number ever held by a single party) to 21,313 in 2019 (when the Conservative Party won 317 seats and a Parliamentary majority of 85). A close result for second place occurred in 2010, with only 661 votes separating the Labour Party and Liberal Democrat candidates.

In the history of the constituency the Liberal Democrat vote share has fallen substantially, from a quarter of the vote and second place ahead of Labour in 1983, to less than half that and third place in 2019. In 2015 the party fell to fourth place.

Boundaries and composition

1983–1997

• The Borough of Hertsmere; and
• The City of St Albans ward of London Colney. ^[7]

The new county constituency was formed largely from the bulk of the abolished constituency of South Hertfordshire. It also included the area comprising the former Urban District of Bushey, transferred from South West Hertfordshire.

Map of current boundaries

1997–present

• The Borough of Hertsmere. ^[8]

Since 1997 the constituency has been coterminous with the borough of Hertsmere in southern Hertfordshire (before then it had also included the City of St Albans ward of London Colney, which was transferred to the St Albans constituency).

Hertsmere consists of the major towns and villages of Bushey, Radlett, Potters Bar and Borehamwood, elevated settlements above the headwaters of the River Colne which forms much of the northern border. Bushey borders Watford and the London Borough of Harrow to the west and south west, while Potters Bar borders Barnet and Broxbourne on the east. Borehamwood is just south-east of the centre, the largest town in the constituency — in the north and centre is Radlett, separated by two large villages and farms from St Albans to the north.

Following its review of parliamentary representation in Hertfordshire, the Boundary Commission recommended no changes to constituency boundaries for the 2010 general election. The seat contains these electoral wards:

• Aldenham East, Aldenham West, Borehamwood Brookmeadow, Borehamwood Cowley Hill, Borehamwood Hillside, Borehamwood Kenilworth, Bushey Heath, Bushey North, Bushey Park, Bushey St James, Elstree, Potters Bar Furzefield, Potters Bar Oakmere, Potters Bar Parkfield, Shenley. ^{[9] [10]}

From 2023

In 2021 the Boundary Commission for England, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, published draft changes to constituency boundaries which came into force in 2023. To bring the population of the constituency within 5% of the new 'electoral quota' of 73,393, the commission proposed that the borough ward of Bushey North, currently in the Hertsmere constituency, join the Watford constituency and the Welwyn Hatfield borough ward of Northaw and Cuffley, which is currently included in the Broxbourne constituency, join Hertsmere. ^[11] The change reduces the population of the constituency by approximately 7%: the new Hertsmere constituency contains an electorate of approximately 73,133. ^[12] On 8 November 2022, the final draft of the Boundary Commission's proposals was published, following consultation. The revised Hertsmere CC (County Constituency) is as proposed in the previous draft and will become effective from the next general election, due no later than 28 January 2025. ^{[13] [14]}

Members of Parliament

This safe Conservative constituency was created in 1983 from the former seat of South Hertfordshire. Cecil Parkinson, who had entered Parliament in 1970 and had previously represented South Hertfordshire, was MP from the seat's creation until his retirement in 1992. He was a close ally of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and had run her successful 1983 election campaign. ^[15] Parkinson stepped down from government on the day of Thatcher's resignation as Conservative Party leader. ^[16]

James Clappison held the seat for five electoral terms, from 1992 until his decision to stand down from parliament at the 2015 general election. ^[17]

The seat was subsequently won by Oliver Dowden. ^[18]

Election		Member [19]	Party
	1983	Cecil Parkinson	Conservative
	1992	James Clappison	Conservative
	2015	Oliver Dowden	Conservative

Elections

Elections in the 2020s

Next general election: Hertsmere

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Josh Tapper [20]
	Liberal Democrats	Emma Matanle [21]
	Reform UK	Darren Selkus [22]

Elections in the 2010s

General election 2019: Hertsmere ^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Oliver Dowden	32,651	62.5	+1.4
	Labour	Holly Kal-Weiss	11,338	21.7	−7.0
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Barrett	6,561	12.6	+7.3
	Green	John Humphries	1,653	3.2	+1.3
Majority			21,313	40.8	+8.4
Turnout			52,203	70.6	−0.6
	Conservative hold		Swing	+4.2

General election 2017: Hertsmere ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Oliver Dowden	31,928	61.1	+1.8
	Labour	Fiona Smith	14,977	28.7	+6.3
	Liberal Democrats	Joe Jordan	2,794	5.3	−0.2
	UKIP	David Hoy	1,564	3.0	−9.7
	Green	Sophie Summerhayes	990	1.9	New
Majority			16,951	32.4	−4.5
Turnout			52,389	71.2	+3.3
	Conservative hold		Swing	−2.2

General election 2015: Hertsmere ^{[25] [26]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Oliver Dowden	29,696	59.3	+3.3
	Labour	Richard Butler [27]	11,235	22.4	+3.6
	UKIP	Frank Ward	6,383	12.7	+9.1
	Liberal Democrats	Sophie Bowler	2,777	5.5	−11.9
Majority			18,461	36.9	−0.3
Turnout			50,091	67.9	+3.2
	Conservative hold		Swing	-0.2

General election 2010: Hertsmere ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Clappison	26,476	56.0	+2.8
	Labour	Sam Russell	8,871	18.8	−8.4
	Liberal Democrats	Anthony Rowlands	8,210	17.4	−1.0
	UKIP	David Rutter	1,712	3.6	New
	BNP	Daniel Seabrook	1,397	3.0	New
	Green	Arjuna Krishna-Das	604	1.3	New
Majority			17,605	37.2	+11.2
Turnout			47,270	64.7	+1.7
	Conservative hold		Swing	+5.6

Elections in the 2000s

General election 2005: Hertsmere ^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Clappison	22,665	53.2	+5.4
	Labour	Kelly Tebb	11,572	27.2	−8.8
	Liberal Democrats	Jonathan Davies	7,817	18.4	+3.2
	Socialist Labour	James Dry	518	1.2	+0.2
Majority			11,093	26.0	+14.2
Turnout			42,572	63.0	+2.7
	Conservative hold		Swing	+7.1

General election 2001: Hertsmere ^[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Clappison	19,855	47.8	+3.5
	Labour	Hilary Broderick	14,953	36.0	−2.2
	Liberal Democrats	Paul Thompson	6,300	15.2	+2.4
	Socialist Labour	James Dry	397	1.0	New
Majority			4,902	11.8	+5.7
Turnout			41,505	60.3	−13.7
	Conservative hold		Swing	+2.9

Elections in the 1990s

General election 1997: Hertsmere ^[31]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Clappison	22,305	44.3	-12.5
	Labour	Beth Kelly	19,230	38.2	+14.5
	Liberal Democrats	Ann Gray	6,466	12.8	-6.1
	Referendum	James Marlow	1,703	3.4	New
	UKIP	Rodney Saunders	453	0.9	New
	Natural Law	Nigel Kahn	191	0.4	New
Majority			3,075	6.1	-27.0
Turnout			50,348	74.0	-6.9
	Conservative hold		Swing	-13.5

General election 1992: Hertsmere ^{[32] [33]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Clappison	32,133	56.8	+0.2
	Labour	David Souter	13,398	23.7	+4.1
	Liberal Democrats	Zerbanoo Gifford	10,681	18.9	−4.9
	Natural Law	Diana Harding	373	0.7	New
Majority			18,735	33.1	+0.3
Turnout			56,585	80.9	+5.5
	Conservative hold		Swing	−2.1

Elections in the 1980s

General election 1987: Hertsmere ^[34]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Cecil Parkinson	31,278	56.6	+3.4
	Liberal	Laurence Brass	13,172	23.8	-1.8
	Labour	Frank Ward	10,835	19.6	+0.4
Majority			18,106	32.8	+5.2
Turnout			55,285	75.4	+1.7
	Conservative hold		Swing	+2.6

General election 1983: Hertsmere ^[35]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Cecil Parkinson	28,628	53.2
	Liberal	Zerbanoo Gifford	13,758	25.6
	Labour	Ian Reed	10,315	19.2
	Independent Communist	Ronald Parkinson	1,116	2.1
Majority			14,870	27.6
Turnout			53,817	73.7
	Conservative win (new seat)

See also

• List of parliamentary constituencies in Hertfordshire

Notes

1. A county constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
2. As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.

References

1. "Electorate Figures – Boundary Commission for England". 2011 Electorate Figures. Boundary Commission for England. 4 March 2011. Archived from the original on 6 November 2010. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
2. "'Hertsmere', June 1983 up to May 1997". ElectionWeb Project. Cognitive Computing Limited. Archived from the original on 12 March 2016. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
3. "Electoral Calculus".
4. "UK Polling Report".
5. "How the population changed in Hertsmere: Census 2021". Census 2021. UK Office of National Statistics. 28 June 2022. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
6. "Hertsmere Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2015" (PDF). Hertsmere Borough Council. 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
7. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1983". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
8. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 1995". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
9. "2015 proposed map" (PDF).
10. "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007". www.legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 February 2019.
11. "Boundary review 2023: Which seats will change?". commonslibrary.parliament.uk. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
12. "Hertsmere: New Boundaries 2023 Calculation". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 2 November 2022.
13. "constituency map for proposed Hertsmere CC" (PDF). Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
14. "Revised proposals for new Parliamentary constituency boundaries in the Eastern region". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 9 November 2022.
15. Beattie, Jason (25 January 2016). "Late Cecil Parkinson was a hero to Tories - but a missing dad to girl he wouldn't love". Daily Mirror. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
16. "Obituary: Cecil Parkinson". BBC News. 25 January 2015. Retrieved 1 November 2022.
17. Ikonen, Charlotte (3 July 2014). "Hertsmere MP James Clappison to stand down at next election". Watford Observer.
18. Rambhai, Jyoti (8 May 2015). "Oliver Dowden retains Conservative seat in Hertsmere". Watford Observer.
19. Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "H" (part 3)
20. "Hertsmere Labour Twitter" . Retrieved 21 March 2024.
21. "Emma Matanle unveiled as Lib Dem candidate for Hertsmere". Watford Observer. March 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
22. "Find My PPC (Eastern England)" (PDF). Reform UK . Retrieved 15 December 2023.
23. "Hertsmere Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
24. "Declaration of Result of Poll" (PDF). Acting Returning Officer. 9 June 2017. Retrieved 13 June 2017.
25. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
26. "Statement Of Persons Nominated And Notice Of Poll". Acting Returning Officer. 9 April 2015. Retrieved 14 April 2015.
27. "UK ELECTION RESULTS: Hertsmere 2015".
28. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
29. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
30. "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
31. "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
32. "Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
33. "UK General Election results April 1992". Richard Kimber's Political Science Resources. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
34. "Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
35. "Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.

51°40′N0°16′W / 51.667°N 0.267°W / 51.667; -0.267