Office of Net Assessment

The Office of Net Assessment ^[1] (ONA) is an agency of the United States Department of Defense created in 1973 by Richard Nixon to serve as the Pentagon's "internal think tank" that "looks 20 to 30 years into the military's future, often with the assistance of outside contractors, and produces reports on the results of its research". ^[2] The office was downgraded when it restored by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in 2025 after being abolished earlier in the year by him. ^{[3] [4]}

Function

According to Defense Directive 5111.11, the Director shall develop and coordinate net assessments of the standing, trends, and future prospects of U.S. military capabilities and military potential in comparison with those of other countries or groups of countries in order to identify emerging or future threats or opportunities for the United States. ^{[5] [6]} Paul Bracken explains that it is important to have a good grasp of net assessment because it is an "important part of the language spoken by leaders in the higher levels of DOD" and officers who lack familiarity "will be at a disadvantage in communicating with the civilian leadership". ^[7]

List of directors

The Director of Net Assessment was the principal staff assistant and advisor to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense on net assessment. Andrew Marshall was named its first director, a position he continued to hold under succeeding administrations. ^[8] In October 2014, Marshall announced plans to retire in January 2015. ^[9] He was replaced by Jim Baker in May 2015. ^{[10] [11]}

• Andrew Marshall, 1973 – January 2, 2015
• James H. Baker, May 14, 2015 – March 13, 2025

Notable staff

Staff members have included:

• David S. Yost
• Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr., formerly the president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
• Larry Seaquist, recently a member of Washington State's House of Representatives

References

1. "Net Assessment: United States". Worldview.stratfor.com. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
2. "Director of Net Assessment". Washington Post . Archived from the original on November 10, 2013. Retrieved March 17, 2014.
3. Lamothe, Dan; Robertson, Noah; Nakashima, Ellen (October 24, 2025). "Hegseth restores, downgrades Pentagon Office of Net Assessment". The Washington Post. ISSN   0190-8286.
4. Insinna, Valerie (March 13, 2025). "Hegseth 'disestablishing' Office of Net Assessment, Pentagon's strategic analysis specialists". Breaking Defense. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
5. Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC), "Defense Directive 5111.11", December 23, 2009.
6. "Director of Net Assessment". August 28, 2010. Archived from the original on August 28, 2010. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
7. Bracken, Paul (Spring 2006). "Net Assessment: A Practical Guide" (PDF). Parameters. 36: 90–100. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 30, 2018. Retrieved March 17, 2014.
8. Whitlock, Craig (December 4, 2013). "Yoda still standing: Office of Pentagon futurist Andrew Marshall, 92, survives budget ax". Washington Post .
9. "Marshall to Retire from Net Assessment Office in January | Defense News | defensenews.com". Archived from the original on October 23, 2014. Retrieved October 20, 2014.
10. "DoD Announces Appointment of James Baker as Director of the Office of". U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
11. "Jim Baker, Director of the Office of Net Assessment". Linkedin.com. Retrieved March 26, 2019.