The 1540 drought in Europe was a climatic event in Europe. The affected region extended from western France to Poland and from Tuscany (Central Italy) to northern Germany. The affected countries were England, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Switzerland, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, western Russia, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Hungary, North and Central Italy, southern Spain. More than 300 contemporary chroniclers from 14 countries recorded the frequency and intensity of rainfall, as well as the numerous consequences of the drought.[1][2]
According to the chronicle of winegrower Hans Stolz, the weather in Guebwiller (Guebwliler), France, was largely dry from 10 February to mid-June after a moderately cold January. There was some rain at the beginning of March. April and May were almost entirely sunny and very warm. From the end of June to 4 August, there was sweltering heat without a drop of rain. In August and September, it rained several times, but only lightly. From October to the end of December, the weather was similar to that in April, with no frost or snowfall. Similar results are provided by the daily records of the Polish scientist and theologian Marcin Biem in Kraków.[2]
Data and methods
The high-resolution reconstruction of temperature and precipitation conditions is based primarily on data and methods from historical climatology. Temperature conditions are based on a study by Petr Dobrovolny and co-authors about monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500.[3]
These are mainly based on phenological observations, i.e. the recording of annually recurring growth phenomena in cultivated plants such as flowering, leaf budding and fruit ripening, especially those of vines (phenology). In 2013, a climate history study showed that the temperature in the summer of 1540 was probably higher than that in the hot summer of 2003.[4]
The summer of 1540 was an outlier in terms of climate during the Little Ice Age, as the following four summers were cold. Isolated hot summers were relatively common in Central Europe between 1350 and 1719, occurring after periods of severe soil drying during hot, dry springs.[5] By contrast, such summers were remarkably rare between 1720 and 1987.[6]
Spatial distribution of 1540 documentary data related to the occurrence of drought. Dots: documentary data evidence (chronicler reports, official letters, rogation ceremonies for rain etc.) of drought (red) and abundance of precipitation (blue; in southern Italy the abundance of precipitation was only during spring).
On the basis of historical records Wetter et al. (2014)[7] derived that during an eleven-month period there was little rain in Europe, possibly qualifying as a megadrought.[8] These conclusions however were questioned by Büntgen et al. (2015)[9] on the basis of additional data (tree rings).
Orth et al. (2016)[10] concluded that in summer 1540 the mean temperature was above the 1966–2015 mean and with a probability of 20% exceeded that of the 2003 summer; however, the study's mean reconstruction suggests that the summer of 2003 was still overall hotter across much of Europe.
The assumption of a megadrought in the year 1540 is primarily supported by more than 300 contemporary chronicles from across Europe, which consistently describe the effects of prolonged drought and heat, such as a significant precipitation deficit, extremely low levels of major rivers, widespread wildfires, the lowering of groundwater levels (resulting in the drying up of wells), as well as severe consequences for agriculture and livestock farming. Particularly reliable sources include the extensive weather diary of Marcin Biem, the rector of the University of Kraków, whose records allow for the statistical reconstruction of precipitation levels in the Kraków region for the year 1540.[11] Until his death on November 19, 1540, he kept a weather diary that was unique for the time.[12]
In contrast, a study published in 2015, based on the analysis of growth rings of various European tree species (dendrochronology, also known as tree-ring dating), concluded that the conducted analyses did not provide evidence of an exceptional drought period throughout 1540.[13] In their reply, the authors of the aforementioned study (Wetter et al.) pointed out that growth rings may sometimes incompletely or belatedly reflect hot and dry extremes, emphasizing the fact that discrepancies between instrumentally determined and dendrochronological data have often occurred in recent times during climatic "outliers" (the "divergence problem").[14][15]
A publication from 2016 assumes that the average summer temperature in 1540 exceeded the corresponding average values of the 1966 to 2015 time series and, with a 20 percent probability, even surpassed the heatwave of the summer of 2003.[16] In this context, the existing uncertainties regarding the available data, which hinder reliable temperature reconstructions for short-term anomalies during the last millennium, were also mentioned.
The weather conditions of 1540 present a paradoxical situation since this exceptional year occurred during the Little Ice Age, which lasted approximately from the early 15th to the mid-19th century. However, the question raised by some studies focuses more on whether this singular event could serve as a "blueprint" for future climatic developments in this geographical context.[11] According to several scientific studies, there has been a clear tendency worldwide towards the formation of warm and dry climates in recent decades.[17] With further warming, the disappearance of existing climate zones and the establishment of new ones in Central Europe will likely occur,[18] similar to what happened at least to some extent almost 500 years ago.
Description
German-language chronicle kept by the winegrower Hans Stolz from Guebwiller (France) for 1540: "Anno 1540 January [from 10th Jan to 9th Feb] was rather cold. February was warm and dry until the end. In March it rained for three days. Then ice was found every morning, but days were warm. April was completely without rain or snow, Likewise, May was sunny and dry, June was dry, except that some rain fell in the end [...]. July [10 July to 9th Aug] was terribly hot and dry throughout so that water became scarce and expensive."
According to the chronicle of winemaker Hans Stoltz of Guebwiller (Gebweiler) today in France, it was largely dry from 10 February until mid-June, following a moderately cold winter. There was some rain at the beginning of March. April and May were sunny and very warm almost all the time, and from the end of June to 4 August it was scorching hot with no rain at all. August and September saw several rainy days, but only a little rain fell. From October to the end of December, the weather was comparable to April with no frost nor snow.[19]
The Swiss historian Christian Pfister described the events of 1540 in a newspaper interview:[20]
For eleven months, there was practically no rain, temperatures were five to seven degrees [Celsius] [9–13°F] above the normal values for the 20th century, in many places summer temperatures must have exceeded 40°C (104°F). Many forests in Europe went up in flames, choking smoke darkened the sun, not a single thunderstorm was reported in the summer of 1540. Water was already scarce in May, wells and springs dried up, mills stood still, people starved, livestock was slaughtered. Estimates are that in 1540 half a million people died, mostly from dysentery.
Everything began in northern Italy, with a winter that felt like a July. Not a single drop fell from October 1539 to early April 1540. Then the drought advanced north. ... July brought such a frightful ember-like heat that churches made prayers while the Rhine, Elbe and Seine could be waded through without getting one's feet wet. Where there was still water, the warm broth acquired a green colour, and dead fish floated belly-up. Water levels in Lake Constance sank to record low levels, and Lindau actually became connected to the mainland. Soon the surface water had completely evaporated, soils broke up, some dry cracks were so wide that a foot would fit into them. ...
The first grapes were already ripe by 12 August, in Alsace fruit trees bloomed a second time, in Lindau it was actually enough for a second cherry harvest. At Lake Constance and in Bayreuth wine eventually became cheaper than water, and in Limoges winemakers were harvesting roasted grapes, from which they obtained sherry-like wine, which ... made one quickly drunk.[20][21]
From the city of Münden there is a description of how in the year 1540 the ducal wine from the vineyard at Questenberg[de] was "so excellent" that it was preferred to foreign wine.[22]
In the Swiss village of Goldiwil[de], "desperate people went over 500m[1,600ft] up and down in elevation every day, only to fill a few barrels of water in Lake Thun".[23]
Temperatures
Long-term annual temperature trends and anomalies in Central Europe from 1500 to 1999. Deviations from the mean 1961-1990 (°C). Standard error prior to 1760 +/- 0.37 °C)
Monthly and seasonal temperatures in terms of differences from the 1961–1990 period in Germany, Switzerland, and the Czech Lands were estimated from temperature indices based on plant phenological observations in conjunction with detailed weather reports.[24] The following phenological observations taken from the survey of sources[2] are given in Gregorian style. The cherry trees were in full bloom around 10 April. The cherries ripened at the end of May. The vines finished flowering before 10 June. The first ripe grapes were picked in Zurich a month later, indicating a 4–5 week lead in vegetation. By the beginning of August, the grapes were ripe in many vineyards, but many berries had dried out. This is why many vine growers waited for more abundant rainfall in September before harvesting.[25] In July temperatures of over 40°C were possibly reached.[26] At the beginning of September, the cherry trees blossomed for a second time and in October even the vines in Lindau on Lake Constance blossomed again. Ripe cherries were picked a second time around this time. On “Christmas” (4 January 1541), some grown-ups in Basel demonstratively swam across the Rhine which suggests that water temperatures were still bearable due to the almost persistent warmth in autumn and early winter. Estimated annual temperatures were by far the highest between 1501 and 2000.
Precipitation
Four chroniclers in the Swiss Plateau kept records of precipitation events, including, in some cases, the perceived abundance. The Swiss reformer and scientist Heinrich Bullinger summarised that, in Zurich, 'it never rained for a whole day or night between February and the end of September'.[27]
The number of days with precipitation (≥1mm) in the Swiss Plateau, as determined from this evidence, is 81% below the 20th-century average. Precipitation amounts estimated using a model in spring, summer and autumn were significantly lower than 20th century minimums. Assuming average conditions in winter, annual precipitation was around a quarter of the 20th century average value. The value for Krakow, 900km away, is of the same order of magnitude.[25]
City fires
In the year 1540, there was an unusually high number of city fires, surpassed only during the height of the Thirty Years' War, in a year without major war damages. In Einbeck, the Krummes Wasser, a stream flowing through the city, was likely dried up. On "Annentag" (the day of Saint Anne), July 26,[28] a fire broke out, and the entire city was destroyed in the Einbeck city fire, with between 100 and 500 people dying. There are records of 32 additional city fires in German territory for the year 1540. The fires occurred during a time of political and religious conflicts surrounding the Reformation. In many cases, arson was suspected as the cause of the conflagrations, allegedly motivated by anti-Protestant sentiments. Vagabonds and beggars were often scapegoated, leading to a genuine paranoia regarding arsonists. The year 1540 also became known as the "Mordbrenner-Jahr" (year of arsonists).[29]
↑ Pfister, Christian; Wanner, Heinz (2021). Klima und Gesellschaft in Europa: die letzten tausend Jahre (1. Auflageed.). Bern: Haupt Verlag. ISBN978-3-258-08182-3.
↑ Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Carrer, Marco; Krusic, Paul J.; Hayes, Michael; Esper, Jan (July 2015). "Commentary to Wetter et al. (2014): Limited tree-ring evidence for a 1540 European 'Megadrought'". Climatic Change. 131 (2): 183–190. Bibcode:2015ClCh..131..183B. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1423-1.
↑ Pfister, Christian; Wetter, Oliver; Brázdil, Rudolf; Dobrovolný, Petr; Glaser, Rüdiger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Zorita, Eduardo; Alcoforado, Maria-Joao; Barriendos, Mariano; Bieber, Ursula; Burmeister, Karl H.; Camenisch, Chantal; Contino, Antonio; Grünewald, Uwe; Herget, Jürgen; Himmelsbach, Iso; Labbé, Thomas; Limanówka, Danuta; Litzenburger, Laurent; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Nordli, Øyvind; Pribyl, Kathleen; Retsö, Dag; Riemann, Dirk; Rohr, Christian; Siegfried, Werner; Spring, Jean-Laurent; Söderberg, Johan; Wagner, Sebastian; Werner, Johannes P. (July 2015). "Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015". Climatic Change. 131 (2): 191–198. Bibcode:2015ClCh..131..191P. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1429-8.
Elf Monate fiel damals so gut wie kein Regen, die Temperatur lag fünf bis sieben Grad über den Normalwerten des 20. Jahrhunderts, verbreitet muss die Temperatur im Hochsommer über 40 Grad geklettert sein. Unzählige Waldgebiete in Europa gingen in Flammen auf, beißender Rauch trübte das Sonnenlicht, im ganzen Sommer 1540 wurde kein einziges Gewitter registriert. Schon im Mai wurde das Wasser knapp, Brunnen und Quellen fielen trocken, die Mühlen standen still, die Leute hungerten, das Vieh wurde notgeschlachtet. In Europa starben in jenem Jahr schätzungsweise eine Million Menschen, die meisten an Ruhr. Alles begann in Norditalien, mit einem Winter, der sich wie ein Juli anfühlte. Kein Tropfen fiel von Oktober 1539 bis Anfang April 1540. Dann griff die Dürre auf den Norden über. ... Der Juli brachte eine solche fürchterliche Gluthitze, dass die Kirchen Bittgebete aussandten, während Rhein, Elbe und Seine trockenen Fußes durchwatet werden konnten. Dort, wo noch Wasser floss, färbte sich die warme Brühe grün, Fische trieben darin kieloben. Der Bodenseepegel sank auf Rekordniveau, Lindau war sogar mit dem Festland verbunden. Bald verdunstete das Oberflächenwasser vollständig, die Böden platzten auf, manche Trockenrisse waren so groß, dass ein Fuß darin Platz fand. Die ersten Trauben waren schon am 12. August reif, im Elsass blühten bald die Obstbäume erneut, in Lindau reichte es sogar für eine zweite Kirschernte. Am Bodensee und in Bayreuth war Wein irgendwann billiger als Wasser, und in Limoges ernteten die Winzer geröstete Trauben, aus denen sie sherryähnlichen Wein gewannen, der sehr schnell betrunken machte.
↑ Christian Pfister, The “Black Swan” of 1540: Aspects of a European Megadrought (PDF), in: Claus Leggewie, Franz Mauelshagen (eds.), Climatic Change in Europe, Brill Leiden, 2018, pp 156-196, DOI:10.1163/9789004356825_007
↑ Pfister nennt in When Europe Was Burning den 4. August als Tag des Brandes. Seine Quellenangabe ist nicht nachvollziehbar. Wahrscheinlich handelt es sich um einen Irrtum, andere Quellen nennen übereinstimmend den 26. Juli, zum Beispiel Andreas Heege (2005), "26. Juli 1540, 18.00 – 22.00 Uhr: Martin Luther, »Hans Worst«und der Stadtbrand von Einbeck", open access, Mitteilungen der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Archäologie des Mittelalters und der Neuzeit, vol.16, doi:10.11588/dgamn.2005.0.18473 Oder Cornel Zwierlein (2011), "5. Klima und Brandkonjunkturen", Der gezähmte Prometheus: Feuer und Sicherheit zwischen Früher Neuzeit und Moderne, Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht, pp.102–110, ISBN9783525317082
↑ Christian Pfister (March 2017), Gerrit Jasper Schenk (ed.), "When Europe Was Burning: The Multi-season Mega-drought of 1540 and Arsonist Paranoia", Historical Disaster Experiences, Transcultural Research – Heidelberg Studies on Asia and Europe in a Global Context, Springer, pp.155–185, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-49163-9_8, ISBN9783319491639
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![German-language chronicle kept by the winegrower Hans Stolz from Guebwiller (France) for 1540: "Anno 1540 January [from 10th Jan to 9th Feb] was rather cold. February was warm and dry until the end. In March it rained for three days. Then ice was found every morning, but days were warm. April was completely without rain or snow, Likewise, May was sunny and dry, June was dry, except that some rain fell in the end [...]. July [10 July to 9th Aug] was terribly hot and dry throughout so that water became scarce and expensive." Hans Stolz Tagebuch Guebwiller 1540.png](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/81/Hans_Stolz_Tagebuch_Guebwiller_1540.png/250px-Hans_Stolz_Tagebuch_Guebwiller_1540.png)
![The Schwedenfass [de]
in the Staatlicher Hofkeller Wurzburg [de]
was created to host the "once-in-a-millennium wine" of 1540 Residence Wurzburg - Wine cellar 2.JPG](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/Residence_W%C3%BCrzburg_-_Wine_cellar_2.JPG/250px-Residence_W%C3%BCrzburg_-_Wine_cellar_2.JPG)
