2020s commodities boom

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The 2020s commodities boom refers to the rise of many commodity prices in the early 2020s following the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 recession initially made commodity prices drop, but lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks, and dovish monetary policy limited supply and created excess demand causing a commodity super cycle rise. [1] [ better source needed ]

Contents

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine worsened the bottlenecks, creating the 2022–2023 Russia–European Union gas dispute and the 2021 United Kingdom natural gas supplier crisis, contributing to the 2021–2023 global energy crisis. As Russia and Belarus are major fertilizer exporters and natural gas is a primary component in many fertilizers, fertilizer prices rose accordingly, exacerbating the 2022–2023 food crises. [2]

The previous commodity super cycle was the 2000s commodities boom, which was attributed to emerging markets, especially that of China, providing a high demand for raw materials.

Food

Global food shortages already existed due to the COVID-19 pandemic when, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia blockaded the Port of Odesa, preventing grain exports. [3] Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Eastern Europe because of its fertile soil and exports of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. [4]

Turkey and the United Nations brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine, allowing the controlled export of grain through the Port to the Black Sea, though shipments have yet to reach prewar levels. [5]

Natural gas is in most fertilizers, and fertilizer prices rose due to the Russia–European Union gas dispute, contributing to the food crises. [6]

Oats

Hectares of oats are down in North America [ clarification needed ] along with droughts in the United States is limiting supply. Demand is up around the world for oats and 38.5% in one year for East Asia. [7] [8]

Orange juice

Orange juice prices have been close to an all-time high in 2022 because of Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Citrus greening disease has been causing damage to citrus trees in the United States since 1998 when it was discovered, dropping the orange production by half. [9] [10] [11]

Eggs

Bird flu outbreaks 2020–2023 H5N8 outbreak and the 2020–2023 H5N1 outbreak has affected the number of egg laying hens and output. [12]

Rice

India put an export ban on white rice in July 2023, and placed an export tax on parboiled rice exports in August 2023. India is the largest exporter of rice and other counties that export a lot of rice their export prices climbed along with India. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to feel the biggest impact from the export control measures. [13]

Cocoa

West Africa, a top producing region of cocoa was hit by strong Harmattan winds that lead to drier climates. [14] The region produces 3/4 of all cocoa beans. [15]

Lumber

Lumber prices Lumber prices chart.webp
Lumber prices

Lumber prices increased with the hot housing market. Potential new American tariffs of 17.99% on Canadian lumber also sent the price higher. Those tariffs were finalized lower to 11.64% by the Biden administration. [16] New contracts that allow semi trucks to haul contracts instead of just rail cars starting August 8, 2022, potentially contributing to normalization of prices in the second half of 2022. [17] Mortgage interest rates rising with inflation is another reason for cooling housing demand and consequently lumber as well. [18]

Natural gas

Natural gas prices in Europe and United States
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National Balancing Point NBP (UK) natural gas prices
Europe TTF natural gas prices
United States Henry Hub natural gas prices Natural gas prices Europe and US.webp
Natural gas prices in Europe and United States
   National Balancing Point NBP (UK) natural gas prices
  Europe TTF natural gas prices
  United States Henry Hub natural gas prices
Japan / Korea PLATTS LNG price Japan - Korea PLATTS Natural Gas Price.webp
Japan / Korea PLATTS LNG price

Natural gas prices have increased around the world. In Europe, Russia has invaded Ukraine and Europe is very dependent on Russia for natural gas via pipelines. Russia has economically weaponized natural gas and reduced flows on pipelines like the Nord Stream 1. Natural gas prices had been increasing worldwide before the invasion of Ukraine and increased substantially thereafter; in some areas, the price of gas has increased more than tenfold. [19] [20]

Natural gas recently became more of a global market with liquefied natural gas and LNG ships maturing in size with Qatar being a world leader in exporting LNG. [21] This globalization of this fungible commodity has caused the prices to shadow each other more in different markets. Previously, natural gas was more difficult to ship, and required pipeline infrastructure, which generally can only be emplaced on land, or for relatively short distances undersea. With the increased use of LNG, gas can be shipped by sea, albeit with the requirement of specialized port facilities.

Piped natural gas

Piped natural gas prices
Hawaii
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Boston
San Diego
US average Piped natural gas prices United States.webp
Piped natural gas prices
   Hawaii
   Boston
   San Diego
  US average

Piped natural gas prices have been rising steadily throughout the U.S. since 2020 but California has experienced exceptionally higher prices because of bad weather, a pipe explosion on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline, unscheduled maintenance, and the Aliso Canyon gas leak at the storage facility in the past, so it stores less now. [22]

Crude oil and petroleum products

Brent Crude
West Texas Intermediate Brent vs WTI crude oil.webp
Diesel fuel (left)
Gasoline (left)
Crude oil price (WTI) (right) Gas prices.webp
   Diesel fuel (left)
   Gasoline (left)

Crude oil prices dropped dramatically during the first months of the COVID Pandemic (WTI went negative for a day) and production was cut in anticipation of a prolonged slowdown. Demand soon exceeded supply because of loose monetary policy causing a global energy crisis and prices to rise. [23] Russia's invasion of Ukraine also resulted in price increases due to sanctions and trade restrictions.

Jet fuel

Jet fuel kerosene price Jet Fuel Kerosene Price.webp
Jet fuel kerosene price
Jet fuel vs oil prices Jet fuel vs oil prices.webp
Jet fuel vs oil prices

Kerosene jet fuel refining has to compete with Diesel fuel and gasoline at the refineries when refining petroleum products. [24] Jet fuel topped $5 a gallon in 2022.

Kerosene heating oil #1

Kerosene heating oil was approaching $4 per gallon in March 2022. The EIA stopped reporting the data in March 2022. [25] [26] [27]

Kerosene #1 heating oil price Kerosene wholesale price.webp
Kerosene #1 heating oil price

Diesel heating oil #2

Diesel heating oil went from around $2 before the pandemic to almost $5 a gallon in 2022. The prices have peaked and are falling in 2022.[ citation needed ]

Diesel #2 heating oil price No. 2 Heating oil.webp
Diesel #2 heating oil price

RBOB gasoline

RBOB gasoline prices RBOB Gasoline Prices.webp
RBOB gasoline prices

RBOB stands for Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending and is refined from crude oil and blended with 10% ethanol fuel. The price of RBOB closely follows the price of crude oil. RBOB plus the excise taxes on fuel reflect the price paid at the pump for gasoline. [28] [29] [30]

Electricity

Electricity prices rose in the United States through 2021 and 2022 mostly from the increase in natural gas prices which makes up the 35% of electricity generated in the United States. [31] [ verification needed ][ additional citation(s) needed ]

Lithium

Lithium prices Lithium prices.webp
Lithium prices

The price of lithium carbonate started to rise in 2021 after slumping in 2020 and peaked in early 2022 close to $80,000 per ton. Demand for electric vehicles around the world is the primary cause for the price rise. In 2021, electric vehicle sales doubled to 6.6 million from 2020. [32]

Copper

Price of copper Price of Copper.webp
Price of copper

The price of copper rose through 2021 and peaked close to $5 per pound in Q2 2022 before retreating. Copper demand is expected to double from 25 million metric tonnes in 2022 to over 50 MMT by the year 2035. [33] The pandemic significantly increased the long-term equilibrium volatility of returns in the copper futures market, nearly doubling it. [34]

Nickel

Nickel prices 2018-2022 Nickel Prices.webp
Nickel prices 2018–2022

In March 2022 nickel prices spiked higher over fear of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as Russia produced 15.2% of world nickel in 2021. [35]

Tin

Prices of tin were up 79% in 2021 because of high demand for circuit boards. [36]

Tin prices 2008-2022 Tin Prices.webp
Tin prices 2008–2022

Titanium

Titanium price Titanium price.webp
Titanium price

Demand for titanium is high because defense spending increases on and resulting from the Russo-Ukrainian War, parts for aircraft makers and defense contractors; additionally, automotive industry demand for titanium dioxide pigments remains high.[ citation needed ]

Rolled steel

Hot-rolled steel prices hit close to $2,000 per ton in 2021. [37]

Rolled steel price Rolled steel price.webp
Rolled steel price

Palladium

Palladium prices Palladium Prices.webp
Palladium prices

Palladium is used widely in catalytic converters to curb harmful emissions from car exhaust. Russia produces 40% of all palladium in the world, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has rattled the palladium market. [38]

Rhodium

Rhodium daily price 1992-2022 Rhodium daily Price 1992-2022.webp
Rhodium daily price 1992–2022

Rhodium is used widely in automotive catalytic converters. Many countries have agreed to the Paris climate accord to cut car emissions and have higher standards for exhaust.

South Africa produces 80–90% of Rhodium each year. Russia is the second largest producer of rhodium but it is around 1%. The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa caused the country to enact lockdown restrictions in March 2020 and again in December 2020 – March 2021. This affected the supply of Rhodium causing the price to increase. [39] [40]

Gold

Price of gold 1915-2022 Price of gold.webp
Price of gold 1915–2022

Gold started to increase in price at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as stocks sunk initially; gold is commonly seen as a safe haven from inflation and stock volatility. Gold crossed the $2,000 mark for the first time in August 2020 and again in March 2022. [41] [42]

Iron ore

Iron ore price 2010-2022 Iron Ore price.webp
Iron ore price 2010–2022

China is the number one consumer of iron ore, importing 80% of all internationally traded iron ore. The price has been very volatile because of curbs the CCP has placed on the steel industry to meet emission standards. Australia, Brazil, and China are the top three producers of iron ore. [43]

Cotton

Cotton prices 2009-2022 Cotton prices.webp
Cotton prices 2009–2022

In the Western United States there have been persistent droughts in the 2020s hurting cotton yields among other agricultural products. [44]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Petroleum</span> Naturally occurring combustible liquid

Petroleum or crude oil, also referred to as simply oil, is a naturally occurring yellowish-black liquid mixture of mainly hydrocarbons, and is found in geological formations. The name petroleum covers both naturally occurring unprocessed crude oil and petroleum products that consist of refined crude oil.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fossil fuel</span> Fuel formed over millions of years from dead plants and animals

A fossil fuel is a carbon compound- or hydrocarbon-containing material such as coal, oil, and natural gas, formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of prehistoric organisms, a process that occurs within geological formations. Reservoirs of such compound mixtures can be extracted and burned as a fuel for human consumption to provide heat for direct use, to power heat engines that can propel vehicles, or to generate electricity via steam turbine generators. Some fossil fuels are further refined into derivatives such as kerosene, gasoline and diesel.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">OPEC</span> Intergovernmental oil organization

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is an organization enabling the co-operation of leading oil-producing and oil-dependent countries in order to collectively influence the global oil market and maximize profit. It was founded on 14 September 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members. The organization, which currently comprises 12 member countries, accounted for an estimated 30 percent of global oil production. A 2022 report further details that OPEC member countries were responsible for approximately 38 percent of it. Additionally, it is estimated that 79.5 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are located within OPEC nations, with the Middle East alone accounting for 67.2 percent of OPEC's total reserves.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natural gas prices</span> Wholesale prices in the market of natural gas

Natural gas prices, as with other commodity prices, are mainly driven by supply and demand fundamentals. However, natural gas prices may also be linked to the price of crude oil and petroleum products, especially in continental Europe. Natural gas prices in the US had historically followed oil prices, but in the recent years, it has decoupled from oil and is now trending somewhat with coal prices.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Price of oil</span> Spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil

The price of oil, or the oil price, generally refers to the spot price of a barrel of benchmark crude oil—a reference price for buyers and sellers of crude oil such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, OPEC Reference Basket, Tapis crude, Bonny Light, Urals oil, Isthmus, and Western Canadian Select (WCS). Oil prices are determined by global supply and demand, rather than any country's domestic production level.

Demand destruction is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity, such as energy products, induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply. In the context of the oil industry, "demand" generally refers to the quantity consumed, rather than any measure of a demand curve as used in mainstream economics. In economics, demand destruction refers to a permanent or sustained decline in the demand for a certain good in response to persistent high prices or limited supply. Because of persistent high prices, consumers may decide that it is not worth purchasing as much of that good, or seek out alternatives as substitutes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Energy policy of Russia</span>

Russia's energy policy is presented in the government's Energy Strategy document, first approved in 2000, which sets out the government's policy to 2020. The Energy Strategy outlines several key priorities: increased energy efficiency, reducing the impact on the environment, sustainable development, energy development and technological development, as well as improved effectiveness and competitiveness. Russia's greenhouse gas emissions are large because of its energy policy. Russia is rich in natural energy resources and is one of the world's energy superpowers. Russia is the world's leading net energy exporter, and was a major supplier to the European Union until the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. Numerous scholars posit that Russia uses its energy exports as a foreign policy instrument towards other countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Energy in Russia</span>

The Energy in Russia is an area of the national economy, science, and technology of the Russian Federation, encompassing energy resources, production, transmission, transformation, accumulation, distribution, and consumption of various types of energy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Japan Crude Cocktail</span> Informal nickname given to the pricing index of Crude Oil

The Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) is the informal nickname given to the pricing index of Crude Oil used in most East Asian countries. The JCC is the average price of customs-cleared crude oil imports into Japan and is published by the Petroleum Association of Japan. The official name of the JCC is the Japan Customs-cleared Crude Oil Price. The valuation of the JCC closely reflects the market state of supply and demand. Clear fluctuations in JCC pricing can be linked to distinct events such as the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis and the 2011 Fukushima Disaster.

The 2000s commodities boom or the commodities super cycle was the rise of many physical commodity prices during the early 21st century (2000–2014), following the Great Commodities Depression of the 1980s and 1990s. The boom was largely due to the rising demand from emerging markets such as the BRIC countries, particularly China during the period from 1992 to 2013, as well as the result of concerns over long-term supply availability. There was a sharp down-turn in prices during 2008 and early 2009 as a result of the credit crunch and European debt crisis, but prices began to rise as demand recovered from late 2009 to mid-2010.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russia in the European energy sector</span>

Russia supplies a significant volume of fossil fuels to other European countries. In 2021, it was the largest exporter of oil and natural gas to the European Union, (90%) and 40% of gas consumed in the EU came from Russia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natural gas in China</span> Overview of natural gas use in China

Between 2009 and 2014, gas consumption, production, and imports in China have grown dramatically, with two-digit growth. According to CNPC, the installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in the country is expected to reach around 138 million-154 million kilowatts in 2025, and further grow to 261 million-308 million kilowatts by 2030.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natural gas in Russia</span>

In 2021 Russia was the world's second-largest producer of natural gas, producing an estimated 701 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year, and the world's largest natural gas exporter, shipping an estimated 250 bcm a year. In 2022 the export market was significantly downsized, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russia reducing exports after countries refused to pay in rubles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange</span> Russian commodity exchange

The Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) is a Russian commodity exchange incorporated in 2008. It has offices in Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Irkutsk.

A global energy crisis began in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, with much of the globe facing shortages and increased prices in oil, gas and electricity markets. The crisis was caused by a variety of economic factors, including the rapid post-pandemic economic rebound that outpaced energy supply, and escalated into a widespread global energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The price of natural gas reached record highs, and as a result, so did electricity in some markets. Oil prices hit their highest level since 2008.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021–2023 inflation surge</span> Ongoing global inflation above target

Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a worldwide surge in inflation began in mid-2021 and lasted until mid-2022. Many countries saw their highest inflation rates in decades. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related economic dislocation, supply chain disruptions, the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in 2020 and 2021 by governments and central banks around the world in response to the pandemic, and price gouging. Preexisting factors that may have contributed to the surge included housing shortages, climate impacts, and government budget deficits have also been cited as factors. Recovery in demand from the COVID-19 recession had, by 2021, revealed significant supply shortages across many business and consumer economic sectors. The inflation rate in the United States and the eurozone peaked in the second half of 2022 and sharply declined in 2023. Despite a worldwide decline, some economists have speculated that higher consumer prices are unlikely to return pre-pandemic levels and may remain elevated. Economists state that for prices to return to pre-pandemic levels a deflationary period would be required, which is usually associated with recession. However, as of August 2024, some average consumer prices in the United States have fallen as consumers have reduced spending while the economy continues to grow.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine</span> Financial crisis beginning after the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions

The economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in late February 2022, in the days after Russia recognized two breakaway Ukrainian republics and launched an invasion of Ukraine. The subsequent economic sanctions have targeted large parts of the Russian economy, Russian oligarchs, and members of the Russian government. Russia responded in kind. A wave of protests and strikes occurred across Europe against the rising cost of living.

During 2022 and 2023 there were food crises in several regions as indicated by rising food prices. In 2022, the world experienced significant food price inflation along with major food shortages in several regions. Sub-Saharan Africa, Iran, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Iraq were most affected. Prices of wheat, maize, oil seeds, bread, pasta, flour, cooking oil, sugar, egg, chickpea and meat increased. Many factors have contributed to the ongoing world food crisis. These include supply chain disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2023 global energy crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and floods and heatwaves during 2021. Droughts were also a factor; in early 2022, some areas of Spain and Portugal lost 60–80% of their crops due to widespread drought.

The 2021–2022 global energy crisis has caused varying effects in different parts of the world.

As part of the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian War, on 3 December 2022, the European Union (EU) agreed to cap the price of natural gas in order to reduce the volatility created by Russia in the gas market.

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