Discrete phase-type distribution

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The discrete phase-type distribution is a probability distribution that results from a system of one or more inter-related geometric distributions occurring in sequence, or phases. The sequence in which each of the phases occur may itself be a stochastic process. The distribution can be represented by a random variable describing the time until absorption of an absorbing Markov chain with one absorbing state. Each of the states of the Markov chain represents one of the phases.

Geometric distribution probability distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the geometric distribution is either of two discrete probability distributions:

Stochastic process mathematical object usually defined as a collection of random variables

In probability theory and related fields, a stochastic or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a family of random variables. Historically, the random variables were associated with or indexed by a set of numbers, usually viewed as points in time, giving the interpretation of a stochastic process representing numerical values of some system randomly changing over time, such as the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule. Stochastic processes are widely used as mathematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. They have applications in many disciplines including sciences such as biology, chemistry, ecology, neuroscience, and physics as well as technology and engineering fields such as image processing, signal processing, information theory, computer science, cryptography and telecommunications. Furthermore, seemingly random changes in financial markets have motivated the extensive use of stochastic processes in finance.

In the mathematical theory of probability, an absorbing Markov chain is a Markov chain in which every state can reach an absorbing state. An absorbing state is a state that, once entered, cannot be left.

Contents

It has continuous time equivalent in the phase-type distribution .

A phase-type distribution is a probability distribution constructed by a convolution or mixture of exponential distributions. It results from a system of one or more inter-related Poisson processes occurring in sequence, or phases. The sequence in which each of the phases occur may itself be a stochastic process. The distribution can be represented by a random variable describing the time until absorption of a Markov process with one absorbing state. Each of the states of the Markov process represents one of the phases.

Definition

A terminating Markov chain is a Markov chain where all states are transient, except one which is absorbing. Reordering the states, the transition probability matrix of a terminating Markov chain with transient states is

Markov chain mathematical system

A Markov chain is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.

where is a matrix and . The transition matrix is characterized entirely by its upper-left block .

Definition. A distribution on is a discrete phase-type distribution if it is the distribution of the first passage time to the absorbing state of a terminating Markov chain with finitely many states.

Characterization

Fix a terminating Markov chain. Denote the upper-left block of its transition matrix and the initial distribution. The distribution of the first time to the absorbing state is denoted or .

Its cumulative distribution function is

for , and its density function is

for . It is assumed the probability of process starting in the absorbing state is zero. The factorial moments of the distribution function are given by,

In probability theory, the factorial moment is a mathematical quantity defined as the expectation or average of the falling factorial of a random variable. Factorial moments are useful for studying non-negative integer-valued random variables, and arise in the use of probability-generating functions to derive the moments of discrete random variables.

where is the appropriate dimension identity matrix.

In linear algebra, the identity matrix, or sometimes ambiguously called a unit matrix, of size n is the n × n square matrix with ones on the main diagonal and zeros elsewhere. It is denoted by In, or simply by I if the size is immaterial or can be trivially determined by the context. Less frequently, some mathematics books use U or E to represent the identity matrix, meaning "unit matrix" and the German word Einheitsmatrix respectively.

Special cases

Just as the continuous time distribution is a generalisation of the exponential distribution, the discrete time distribution is a generalisation of the geometric distribution, for example:

See also

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