Galloping inflation (also jumping inflation) is one that develops at a rapid pace (dual or triple-digit annual rates), perhaps only for a brief period. [1] [2] Such form of inflation is dangerous for the economy as it mostly affects the middle and low-income classes of population. [3] [4] Importantly, galloping inflation can precipitate an economic depression. [5] Nevertheless, galloping inflation can still be accompanied by real economic growth. [6]
Galloping inflation is characterized by the rates of price growth that are higher than those of the moderate (creeping) inflation, [7] but lower than those of the hyperinflation. [8] There are no strictly defined parameters of galloping inflation due to the fact that inflationary processes manifest themselves differently in different types of economic systems. As a rule, galloping inflation is recognized as a price increase of 10–100% per year; sometimes there are other limits (10–50% or 20–100%). Paul A. Samuelson limited galloping inflation to 200% per year. [9]
In contrast to the moderate one, galloping inflation is increasingly difficult to manage for monetary authorities as this type of inflation constantly requires an adequate indexation of wages (and other benefits) and measures to contain prices. A characteristic feature of galloping inflation is high risks associated with fixing contracts at nominal prices. Contracts should either stipulate price increases or be nominated in a stable foreign currency. For example, in Russia, during the period of galloping inflation of 1990s, prices for goods and services were often nominated in US dollars.
From the macroeconomics point of view, the causes can be divided into: monetary (the result of an inefficient monetary policy), structural (changes in the economic system), and external (the influence of foreign states). [10]
Galloping inflation causes: [11]
Each of the above may further lead to hyperinflation, sovereign default on state debt, or currency denomination—the issuance of new national monetary units.
Galloping inflation is a more frequent economic phenomenon than hyperinflation and is periodically observed even in the most economically developed countries. In most of the latter, galloping inflation was observed in the post-war years (1945–1952) and in the 1970s due to the increase in prices for oil set by OPEC. Also, galloping inflation is typical for the countries with transition economies. [13] [14]
In the 2000s, the number of countries experiencing galloping inflation declined sharply.[ citation needed ]
In economics, hyperinflation is a very high and typically accelerating inflation. It quickly erodes the real value of the local currency, as the prices of all goods increase. This causes people to minimize their holdings in that currency as they usually switch to more stable foreign currencies. Effective capital controls and currency substitution ("dollarization") are the orthodox solutions to ending short-term hyperinflation; however there are significant social and economic costs to these policies. Ineffective implementations of these solutions often exacerbate the situation. Many governments choose to attempt to solve structural issues without resorting to those solutions, with the goal of bringing inflation down slowly while minimizing social costs of further economic shocks.
Keynesian economics are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. It is influenced by a host of factors that sometimes behave erratically and impact production, employment, and inflation.
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes national, regional, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output/GDP and national income, unemployment, price indices and inflation, consumption, saving, investment, energy, international trade, and international finance.
Stagflation refers to an economic condition characterized by a simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment. This phenomenon challenges traditional economic theories, which previously suggested that inflation and unemployment were inversely related, as depicted by the Phillips Curve. The term stagflation, a blend of "stagnation" and "inflation," was popularized by British politician Iain Macleod in the 1960s, during a period of economic distress in the United Kingdom. It gained broader recognition in the 1970s following a series of global economic shocks, particularly the 1973 oil crisis, which significantly disrupted supply chains and contributed to rising prices and slowing growth.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
In economics, deflation is a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. Deflation occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%. Inflation reduces the value of currency over time, but deflation increases it. This allows more goods and services to be bought than before with the same amount of currency. Deflation is distinct from disinflation, a slowdown in the inflation rate; i.e., when inflation declines to a lower rate but is still positive.
In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.
The economy of governments covers the systems for setting levels of taxation, government budgets, the money supply and interest rates as well as the labour market, national ownership, and many other areas of government interventions into the economy.
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since then, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.
An economic model is a theoretical construct representing economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and/or quantitative relationships between them. The economic model is a simplified, often mathematical, framework designed to illustrate complex processes. Frequently, economic models posit structural parameters. A model may have various exogenous variables, and those variables may change to create various responses by economic variables. Methodological uses of models include investigation, theorizing, and fitting theories to the world.
Alan Stuart Blinder is an American economics professor at Princeton University and is listed among the most influential economists in the world. He is a leading macro-economist, politically liberal, and a champion of Keynesian economics and policies.
Money creation, or money issuance, is the process by which the money supply of a country, or an economic or monetary region, is increased. In most modern economies, money is created by both central banks and commercial banks. Money issued by central banks is a liability, typically called reserve deposits, and is only available for use by central bank account holders, which are generally large commercial banks and foreign central banks. Central banks can increase the quantity of reserve deposits directly, by making loans to account holders, purchasing assets from account holders, or by recording an asset, such as a deferred asset, and directly increasing liabilities. However, the majority of the money supply used by the public for conducting transactions is created by the commercial banking system in the form of commercial bank deposits. Bank loans issued by commercial banks expand the quantity of bank deposits.
Modern monetary theory or modern money theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires. According to MMT, governments do not need to worry about accumulating debt since they can pay interest by printing money. MMT argues that the primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which acts as the only constraint on spending. MMT also argues that inflation can be controlled by increasing taxes on everyone, to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector.
Biflation is a state of the economy, in which the processes of inflation and deflation occur simultaneously in different parts of the economy. The term was first coined in 2003 by F. Osborne Brown, a senior financial analyst at Phoenix Investment Group, and has later been widely used in the media. During the biflation, there is a simultaneous rise in prices (inflation) for commodities bought out of the basic income (earnings), and a parallel fall in prices (deflation) for goods bought mainly on credit. Biflation may be seen in the CPI composition: some CPI components are in the inflationary territory, while others are facing deflationary pressure. As such, biflation reflects the complexity of the modern financial system.
The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis is an academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Keynes in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) with neoclassical economics.
Hyperinflation affected the German Papiermark, the currency of the Weimar Republic, between 1921 and 1923, primarily in 1923. The German currency had seen significant inflation during the First World War due to the way in which the German government funded its war effort through borrowing, with debts of 156 billion marks by 1918. This national debt was substantially increased by 50 billion marks of reparations payable in cash and in-kind under the May 1921 London Schedule of Payments agreed after the Versailles treaty.
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe is an ongoing period of currency instability in Zimbabwe which, using Cagan's definition of hyperinflation, began in February 2007. During the height of inflation from 2008 to 2009, it was difficult to measure Zimbabwe's hyperinflation because the government of Zimbabwe stopped filing official inflation statistics. However, Zimbabwe's peak month of inflation is estimated at 79.6 billion percent month-on-month, 89.7 sextillion percent year-on-year in mid-November 2008.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of its centrally-planned economy, the Russian Federation succeeded it under president Boris Yeltsin. The Russian government used policies of shock therapy to liberalize the economy as part of the transition to a market economy, causing a sustained economic recession. GDP per capita levels returned to their 1991 levels by the mid-2000s. The economy of Russia is much more stable today than in the early 1990s, but inflation still remains an issue. Historically and currently, the Russian economy has differed sharply from major developed economies because of its weak legal system, underdevelopment of modern economic activities, technological backwardness, and lower living standards.
Hyperinflation in Brazil occurred between the first three months of 1990. The monthly inflation rates between January and March 1990 were 71.9%, 71.7% and 81.3% respectively. As accepted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), hyperinflation is defined as a period of time in which the average price level of goods and services rise by more than 50% a month.
This glossary of economics is a list of definitions of terms and concepts used in economics, its sub-disciplines, and related fields.