Hurricane Pali

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Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
Disc Plain black.svg Tropical cyclone
Solid black.svg Subtropical cyclone
ArrowUp.svg Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

In late December 2015, a long-lived and powerful westerly wind burst—a feature commonly associated with strong El Niño events—triggered the formation of Tropical Depression Nine-C in the central North Pacific, along with its twin, Tropical Cyclone Ula, in the central South Pacific. Tropical Depression Nine-C quickly dissipated by the start of 2016, leaving behind a large area of moisture across the equatorial Pacific. [1] [11] [12] The persistent, powerful westerly wind burst spurred cyclogenesis within a persistent, low-latitude, west-to-east-oriented surface trough that spanned between 1.0°N and 3.0°N latitude as far east as 155.0°W longitude, resulting in the formation of a weak area of low pressure on January 6, at the extremely low latitude of 1.9°N. [1] The disturbance developed in an area of high wind shear, which kept the system from quickly organizing. The low and the trough drifted northward, as the subtropical ridge spanning the region was significantly weakened by a passing extratropical storm in the North Pacific. Deep convection then developed near the low and also along a broad portion of the trough; however, thunderstorms failed to concentrate around the center of the disturbance. Fueled by unusually high sea surface temperatures, estimated at 29.5 °C (85.1 °F), deep convection increased and gradually organized around the low, and the system gradually coalesced into a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on January 7, at a latitude of 3.3°N. This marked the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone on record in the Central Pacific, surpassing 1989's Tropical Storm Winona by six days. [8] A ridge aloft centered directly above the system enhanced its poleward anticyclonic outflow, enabling the development of deep convection around its center, and soon afterward, the system strengthened into a tropical storm, which received the name Pali, becoming the earliest tropical cyclone recorded in the northeastern Pacific. [1] [15]

Pali continued intensifying through the first half of January 8 and nearly reached Category 1 hurricane strength, with maximum 1-minute sustained winds reaching 70 mph (110 km/h), but easterly vertical wind shear caused by the ridge aloft increased and disrupted its center, causing the storm to start weakening and curve northwestward. [1] Steady weakening continued through January 9, as Pali's deep convection was displaced to the west of its low-level circulation center and intermittently pulsed, later leading to a sharp decrease in the storm's intensity. [1] By the end of that day, Pali barely maintained tropical storm strength, with the storm's 1-minute sustained winds registering at 40 mph (65 km/h). The lack of persistent deep convection resulted in Pali being a weaker system, but this permitted the storm to be more resistant to the easterly wind shear, causing its forward motion to decrease significantly. [1] The ridge of high pressure weakened and retreated southward on January 10, which caused the vertical wind shear to gradually diminish. Afterward, Pali started re-intensifying, with persistent deep convection redeveloping near its center and within the storm's western quadrant. This shift in steering currents also caused Pali to slowly turn eastward. Pali almost completely stalled during this time, due to the absence of significant steering currents. [1] On January 11, the ridge of high pressure moved directly over Pali, leading to the reestablishment of poleward outflow above the storm and the eventual development of southwesterly flow aloft, enabling the storm's convection to slowly increase in coverage and organization within all quadrants, and also establishing a northeastward movement. [1] At 00:00 UTC on January 12, light vertical wind shear and high sea surface temperatures enabled Pali to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the earliest hurricane on record in the northeast Pacific basin, beating the previous record set by Hurricane Ekeka in 1992, by 19 days. Around the same time, the storm began curving towards the southeast, as a deep ridge developed to the north. The storm also displayed a well-defined eye by 18:00 UTC that day. [1] Pali continued strengthening while travelling southward, and early on January 13, Pali reached its peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane, with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 978 millibars (28.9 inHg). [1] [16]

During the next few days, Pali rapidly weakened while turning back towards the south-southwest, due to steady increases in southerly vertical wind shear and the loss of Coriolis force. The storm's weakening trend began on January 13 and accelerated through the next day, as Pali moved back towards the area from where it had formed. The storm's eye became indistinguishable by 06:00 UTC on January 13, as the system continued to weaken. [1] Vertical wind shear exceeded 25 mph (40 km/h) by early January 14. Further decay in the organization of the storm's deep convection caused Pali to be downgraded into a remnant low late on January 14, with the system barely being distinguishable within the surface trough where it had spent its entire life, [1] [17] and the storm's center dissipated by 00:00 UTC on January 15. However, Pali's remnants continued to persist for a while, before dissipating later that day. [18] [19] Pali completed a broad and looping track, dissipating approximately 50 nmi (58 mi; 93 km) from where it had initially developed. [1] While weakening, Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.6°N, making it the second-lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, behind Tropical Depression Nine-C, which attained a minimum latitude of 2.2°N just two weeks prior. [1] [11] [12]

Impacts

In the 19th session of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)'s Tropical Cyclone Committee, in July 2021, Kiribati reported that Hurricane Pali had severe impacts in Kiribati. While Pali caused a significant amount of property damage, the exact amount of damage was not given in the report to the WMO. [2] Pali caused a cargo ship to run aground on the coast of Kiribati, killing four people. [3] Additionally, Pali's storm surge combined with the Spring Tide and the El Niño-induced above-average sea level, producing major coastal flooding in Kiribati, which caused significant damage to the island nation's coastal infrastructure. [4] [20]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ All values for sustained wind estimates are sustained over 1 minute, unless otherwise specified.

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Derek Wroe; Sam Houston (December 13, 2018). Hurricane Pali (PDF) (Report). Tropical Cyclone Report. Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center . Retrieved July 4, 2019.
  2. 1 2 Review of the Cyclonic Seasons 2019/2020, 2020/2021: Kiribati. RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee Nineteenth Session. World Meteorological Organization. July 25, 2021.
  3. 1 2 Committee for Development Policy: 20th Plenary Session (PDF) (Report). United Nations Committee for Development. March 16, 2018. p. 13. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  4. 1 2 Geospatial application in Kiribati (PDF) (Report). Intergovernmental Consultative Committee. October 16, 2017. p. 5. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
  5. ↑ Neal Dorst (June 2, 2016). "G1) When is hurricane season?". In Chris Landsea; Neal Dorst (eds.). Frequently Asked Questions. 4.11. Archived from the original on August 9, 2019. Retrieved August 9, 2019.{{cite book}}: Unknown parameter |agency= ignored (help)
  6. 1 2 National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division (May 26, 2020). "Pacific hurricane best track (HURDAT)" (Database). 2. United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on March 19, 2021. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  7. 1 2 "Hurricane Pali Recap, Earliest Central Pacific Hurricane on Record". The Weather Company . June 14, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  8. 1 2 Bob Henson (January 7, 2016). "Rare January Depression in Central Pacific; Atlantic Subtropical Storm Next Week?". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on March 25, 2017. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 "Hurricane Pali". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. NASA Earth Observatory. January 12, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  10. ↑ Scott Sistek (January 12, 2016). "Hurricane Pali sets record for being earliest; closest to equator". Komonews. Archived from the original on August 10, 2016. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  11. 1 2 3 Sam Houston; Tom Birchard (December 22, 2016). Tropical Depression Nine-C (Report). Tropical Cyclone Report. Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 20, 2018. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  12. 1 2 3 Erdman, John (January 1, 2016). "Tropical Depression Nine-C Dissipates; Caps Off a Record Central Pacific Hurricane Season". The Weather Company . Retrieved January 6, 2016.
  13. ↑ Lee Grenci (January 12, 2016). "Could Pali Cross The Equator?". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on January 15, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  14. ↑ Jeff Masters (January 13, 2016). "Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on January 15, 2016. Retrieved January 14, 2016.
  15. ↑ Bob Henson (January 8, 2016). "Warm, Wet Year for U.S.; Record Heat in South Africa; Tropical Storm Pali Intensifies". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on March 25, 2017. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  16. ↑ Bob Burke (January 12, 2016). Hurricane Pali Advisory Number 22. prh.noaa.gov (Report). Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  17. ↑ Robert Ballard (January 14, 2016). Tropical Depression Pali Discussion Number 30. prh.noaa.gov (Report). Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 3, 2018. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  18. ↑ Robert Ballard (January 15, 2016). Remnants of Pali Advisory Number 31. prh.noaa.gov (Report). Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  19. ↑ "Pali (was 1C – Central Pacific)". NASA. January 15, 2016. Retrieved March 24, 2021.
  20. ↑ Disaster and Climate Risk Assessment: Kiribati: Outer Islands Transport Infrastructure Investment Project (PDF) (Report). Asian Development Bank. December 18, 2019. p. 22. Retrieved September 23, 2021.
Hurricane Pali
Pali 2016-01-13 0030Z.jpg
Hurricane Pali at peak intensity, over the Central Pacific on January 13
Tropical cyclones of the 2016 Pacific hurricane season
2016 Pacific hurricane season summary map.png

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