Japanese general election, 2012

For a breakdown of results by single-member district and proportional block, see Results of the Japanese general election, 2012.

Japanese general election, 2012

←  2009 16 December 2012 2014  →
←  outgoing members members elected  →
All 480 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan 241 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	59.32% (9.96%)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Shinzō Abe Yoshihiko Noda Shintaro Ishihara Party Liberal Democratic Democratic Restoration Leader since 26 September 2012 29 August 2011 17 November 2012 Leader's seat Yamaguchi-4th Chiba-4th Tokyo PR Last election 119 seats, 26.73% 308 seats, 42.41% New party Seats won 294 57 54 Seat change 176 173 43 Popular vote 16,624,457 9,268,653 12,262,228 Percentage 27.62% 15.49% 20.38% Swing 0.89% 26.92% N/A   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Natsuo Yamaguchi Yoshimi Watanabe Yukiko Kada Party Komeito Your Tomorrow Leader since 8 September 2009 8 August 2009 28 November 2012 Leader's seat Not contesting (Councillor) Tochigi-3rd Not contesting (Governor of Shiga) Last election 21 seats, 11.45% 5 seats, 4.27% New party Seats won 31 18 9 Seat change 10 10 52 Popular vote 7,116,474 5,245,586 3,423,915 Percentage 11.83% 8.72% 5.69% Swing 0.38% 4.45% N/A   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Kazuo Shii Mizuho Fukushima Muneo Suzuki Party Communist Social Democratic New Party Daichi Leader since 24 November 2000 15 November 2003 28 December 2011 Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR Not contesting (Councillor) Not contesting Last election 9 seats, 7.03% 7 seats, 4.27% 1 seat, 0.62% Seats won 8 2 1 Seat change 1 3 2 Popular vote 3,689,159 1,420,790 346,848 Percentage 6.13% 2.36% 0.58% Swing 0.90% 1.91% 0.04%
districts and PR districts won by respective parties
Prime Minister before election Yoshihiko Noda Democratic Elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Liberal Democratic

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A general election was held in Japan on 16 December 2012. Voters gave the Liberal Democratic Party a landslide victory, ejecting the Democratic Party from power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.

Voting took place in all representatives' constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. This was the 46th general election of members of the House of Representatives(第46回衆議院議員総選挙,dai-yonjūrokkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) in Japan since 1869.

In July 2012 it was reported that the deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada had approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the house of representatives and holding the election in January 2013. ^[1] An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax. ^[2] It was reported that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay the Japan public debt, ^{[3] [4] [5] [6] [7]} the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats. ^{[8] [9]}

Background

The LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the 2009 election, the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of the Japanese election system, DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enabling Yukio Hatoyama to become prime minister. Since then, Japan has had two other prime ministers, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda. On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time. He cited the lack of funds to carry on the functions of government and the need for an emergency budget.

Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties. ^[10] The former Governor of Tokyo Shintarō Ishihara announced the renamed and re-formed of the Sunrise Party on 14 November 2012 Ishihara co-leading with Takeo Hiranuma. ^[11] On 17 November 2012 Mayor of Osaka Tōru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Governor Shintarō Ishihara announced the merger of the Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party as a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election. ^[12] It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo. ^[13]

On 23 November, Mayor of Nagoya Takashi Kawamura, former state minister Shizuka Kamei and former farm minister Masahiko Yamada joined forces together to launch Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party as another "third pole" national political party. ^[14] On 28 November, the Governor of Shiga Yukiko Kada in Ōtsu announced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and equal gender party known as the Tomorrow Party of Japan becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrent the DPJ splitter group, People's Life First president Ichirō Ozawa dissolved the party and merged into the Tomorrow Party. Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party and Japan Future Party are negotiating to merge parties to further counter the major parties and the pro-nuclear parties. ^[15] On 27 November Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party officially announced they would merge with Tomorrow, with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same." ^[16]

Polling

Graph of poll results since 2009
Democratic   Liberal Democratic   New Komeito   Communist   Social Democratic   Your Party   Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP   No Party Source: NHK
Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings

Party polling for the 180 proportional seats

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Undecided or declined
			DPJ	LDP	JRP	LF ↓ TPJ	NKP	JCP	YP	SDP
Asahi Shimbun	15–16 November 2012	44%	16%	23%	6%	1%	3%	2%	2%	1%
Yomiuri Shimbun	16–17 November 2012	43%	13%	22%	13%	—	—	—	—	—
Asahi Shimbun	17–18 November 2012	46%	15%	23%	16%	—	4%	—	—	—
Kyodo News	17–18 November 2012	43%	10.8%	23%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	23–25 November 2012	—	10%	25%	14%	2%	6%	—	2%	—
Kyodo News	24–25 November 2012	45%	8.4%	18.7%	10.3%	2%	4%	—	3%	—
Asahi Shimbun	24–25 November 2012	41%	13%	23%	9%	2%	4%	—	3%	—
Nikkei Business Daily	28 November 2012	—	13%	23%	15%	5%	4%	—	—	—
Kyodo News	1–2 December 2012	—	9.3%	18.4%	10.4%	3.5%	4.8%	—	—	—
Asahi Shimbun	1–2 December 2012	41%	15%	20%	9%	3%	4%	3%	3%	1%
Yomiuri Shimbun	30 Nov.-2 Dec 2012	—	13%	19%	13%	5%	—	—	5%	—
NHK	7–9 December 2012	—	10%	21%	11%	—	—	—	—	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	7–9 December 2012	—	12%	29%	11%	3%	—	—	—	—
Asahi Shimbun	8–9 December 2012	43%	14%	22%	8%	2%	5%	4%	2%	—
Kyodo News	12–13 December 2012	40%	11%	23%	10%	—	—	—	—	—

PM polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered
		Noda DPJ	Abe LDP	Ishihara JRP
Kyodo News	3–4 November 2012	29.3%	40%	—
Asahi Shimbun	15–16 November 2012	31%	33%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	16–17 November 2012	31%	37%	—
Kyodo News	17–18 November 2012	32.1%	35%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	23–25 November 2012	19%	29%	22%
Kyodo News	24–25 November 2012	30%	33.9%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	30 Nov.-2 Dec 2012	21%	28%	—
NHK	7–9 December 2012	19%	28%	—
Kyodo News	8–9 December 2012	31%	39%	—
Kyodo News	12–13 December 2012	29%	34%	—

Pre-election composition

As of official announcement (kōji [=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on 4 December ^[17] – note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (16 November), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.

↓
139	107	1	233
LDP & NKP	Other opposition	V	Incumbent government (DPJ & PNP)

Results

Seating after the election.

   LDP (294)

   DPJ/Club of Independents (57)

   Restoration (54)

   Kōmeitō (31)

   YP (18)

   Tomorrow (9)

   JCP (8)

  Independents (5)

   SDP/Shimin Rengō (2)

   PNP (1)

   NPD (1)

LDP	NKP	DPJ	JRP	YP	T P J	J C P	O t h
294	31	57	54	18	9	8	9

↓
325	155
Prospective LDP–NKP Coalition	Oppositions and Independents

e  •  d  Summary of the 16 December 2012 Japanese House of Representatives election results ^[18]

Alliances and parties		Local constituency vote			PR block vote			Total seats		+/−
		Votes [19]	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats	Total	%	(pre- election)	(last election)
	Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Jimintō	25,643,309	43.01	237	16,624,457	27.79	57	294	61.25	176	175
	New Komeito Party (NKP) Kōmeitō	885,881	1.49	9	7,116,474	11.90	22	31	6.46	10	10
	Prospective LDP–NKP Coalition	26,529,190	44.49	246	23,740,931	39.69	79	325	67.71	186	185
	Democratic Party (DPJ) Minshutō	13,598,773	22.81	27	9,268,653	15.49	30	57	11.88	173	251
	Restoration Party (JRP) Ishin no Kai	6,942,353	11.64	14	12,262,228	20.50	40	54	11.25	43	—
	Your Party (YP) Minna no Tō	2,807,244	4.71	4	5,245,586	8.77	14	18	3.75	10	10
	Tomorrow Party (TPJ) Mirai no Tō	2,992,365	5.02	2	3,423,915	5.72	7	9	1.88	52	—
	Communist Party (JCP) Kyōsantō	4,700,289	7.88	0	3,689,159	6.17	8	8	1.67	1	1
	Social Democratic Party (SDP) Shakai Minshutō	451,762	0.76	1	1,420,790	2.38	1	2	0.42	3	5
	People's New Party (PNP) Kokumin Shintō	117,185	0.20	1	70,847	0.12	0	1	0.21	2	2
	New Party Daichi (NPD) Shintō Daichi	315,604	0.53	0	346,848	0.58	1	1	0.21	2	0
	Happiness Realization Party (HRP) Kōfuku Jitsugentō	102,634	0.17	0	216,150	0.36	0	0	0.00	0	0
	Others	62,697	0.11	0	134,781	0.23	0	0	0.00	0	0
	Total opposition parties	32,090,906	53.82	49	36,078,957	60.31	101	150	31.25	180	249
	Independents	1,006,468	1.69	5	–			5	1.04	4	1
Totals		59,626,564	100.00%	300	59,819,888	100.00%	180	480	100.00	1*	0
Turnout		59.32%			59.31%			*(vacant seats)

Vote in 300 single-member districts LDP (contesting 288)   43.01% DPJ (contesting 264)   22.81% JRP (contesting 151)   11.64% JCP (contesting 299)   7.88% TPJ (contesting 111)   5.02% YP (contesting 65)   4.71% NKP (contesting 9)   1.49% SDP (contesting 33)   0.76% NPD (contesting 7)   0.53% PNP (contesting 2)   0.20% NPN (contesting 1)   0.11% HRP (contesting 20) & 5 others   0.17% 49 independents   1.69%

300 single-member district seats LDP   79.00% DPJ   9.00% JRP   4.67% NKP   3.00% YP   1.33% TPJ   0.67% SDP   0.33% PNP   0.33% Independents   1.67%

Vote in 11 multi-member proportional districts/"blocks" LDP (contesting 11)   27.79% JRP (contesting 11)   20.50% DPJ (contesting 11)   15.49% NKP (contesting 11)   11.90% YP (contesting 11)   8.77% JCP (contesting 11)   6.17% TPJ (contesting 11)   5.72% SDP (contesting 11)   2.38% NPD (contesting 1)   0.58% HRP (contesting 11)   0.36% NRP (contesting 2)   0.22% PNP (contesting 1)   0.12%

180 proportional seats LDP   31.67% JRP   22.22% DPJ   16.67% NKP   12.22% YP   7.78% JCP   4.44% TPJ   3.89% SDP   0.56% NPD   0.56%

Total (480) lower house seats LDP   61.25% DPJ   11.88% JRP   11.25% NKP   6.46% YP   3.75% TPJ   1.88% JCP   1.67% SDP   0.42% NPD   0.21% PNP   0.21% Independents   1.04%

Post-election

Overview of results

As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 294 seats and their allies the New Komeito Party won 31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule the House of Councillors. ^{[20] [21]} The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behind China. ^[20] Despite this landslide victory, Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP. ^{[22] [23]}

On the other hand, the election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party, which lost three-quarters ^[24] of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of the Cabinet lost their seats, the most ever in an election. Naoto Kan, who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well. ^[25] Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post-World War II era. As a result, Yoshihiko Noda resigned from his post as party president. ^[24]

The Tomorrow Party of Japan, which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party emerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left parties Social Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party continued to decline in strength and relevance.

The voter turnout of 59.3% was the lowest since the Second World War. ^[24]

Reactions and analysis

The Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on the Senkaku Islands dispute, leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue. ^[21] Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that their "objective is to stop the challenge" from China with regards to ownership of the islands. ^[26] The re-election of the liberal conservative LDP has raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours — China and South Korea — will become strained, given the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasization of Japan's war crimes committed during the Second World War and their intention to amend the country's pacifist constitution to give more power to the Self-Defense Forces. ^{[27] [28] [29]} Abe is also in favour of retaining nuclear energy in the country. ^[20]

In response to the election, the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 1%, while the yen fell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months. ^[30] Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months. ^[31]

United States President Barack Obama spoke to Abe by telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties. ^[32]

Voiding of election

On 25 March 2013 the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts. ^{[33] [34]} The decision is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court, ^[35] and, if it's upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results. ^[35] Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner. ^[34]

See also

• List of Districts of the House of Representatives of Japan

References

1. "Okada eyes Jan. dissolution of lower house". Yomiuri Shimbun. Jiji Press. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 14 November 2012. 
2. Harlan, Chico (18 August 2012). "In Japan, new taxes levy political toll on Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda". The Washington Post. Retrieved 20 August 2012. 
3. http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/c04cont.htm
4. http://www.nbr.org/research/activity.aspx?id=178
5. Schuman, Michael (6 April 2011). "A hard look at Japan's debt problem". Time. Retrieved 22 March 2018. 
6. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/economy/business/AJ201205110051
7. "Japan's Debt Sustains a Deflationary Depression". Bloomberg. 
8. http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201212250101
9. http://www.mansfieldfdn.org/backup/polls/pdf/martin_commentary.pdf
10. "Japan's 'third pole". Japantimes.co.jp. 2012-11-16. Retrieved 2012-12-20. 
11. "New political party to be named 'Tachiagare Nippon' (Stand up Japan)" Archived 5 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine .
12. Japan Today/Associated Press, "Ishihara, Hashimoto announce 'third force' in Japanese politics", Japan Today, 18 November 2012
13. Johnston, Eric, "Nippon Ishin no Kai: Local but with national outlook", Japan Times , 3 October 2012, p. 3
14. "New Kawamura-led party joins election fray". Yomiuri Shimbun. 24 November 2012. Retrieved 28 November 2012. 
15. "Shiga's Kada readies party; Ozawa joins". Japantimes.co.jp. 2012-11-28. Retrieved 2012-12-20. 
16. "2 Parties Merge With Japan Future". Ajw.asahi.com. Retrieved 2012-12-20. 
17. Yomiuri Shimbun: House of Representatives election 2012
18. General election results final. Yomiuri Shimbun . 17 December 2012.
19. Decimals from fractional votes (ambunhyō) rounded to full numbers
20. Nagano, Yuriko; Demick, Barbara (16 December 2012). "Japan conservatives win landslide election victory". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 16 December 2012. 
21. "Japan election: LDP's Shinzo Abe vows tough China line". BBC. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 16 December 2012. 
22. Fackler, Martin (16 December 2012). "Japan Election Returns Power to Old Guard". The New York Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
23. Yoshida, Reiji (17 December 2012). "LDP aware voters just punished DPJ". Japan Times. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
24. Brinsley, John; Reynolds, Isabel (17 December 2012). "Two-Party Japan Democracy Undone in 39 Months as DPJ Falls". Bloomberg. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
25. "LDP flattens DPJ in bruising return to power". Japan Times. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
26. Ryall, Julian; Irvine, Chris (16 December 2012). "Japan election winner fires early warning to China". The Daily Telegraph. London. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
27. "'The Senkaku islands are our territory': Japanese nationalists return to power in a landslide victory". National Post. Associated Press. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 18 December 2012. 
28. Dickie, Mure (16 December 2012). "Rightwing revival raises regional dilemmas". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
29. Nakamoto, Michiyo; Dickie, Mure; Soble, Jonathan (16 December 2012). "LDP crushes rivals in Japanese poll". Financial Times. Retrieved 18 December 2012. (subscription required)
30. "Japan elections: Shares rise and yen weakens on Abe win". BBC News. 17 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
31. "JGB 20-year yield hits 8-month high after Japan election". Reuters. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 17 December 2012. 
32. "Readout of the President's Call with Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe of Japan". Whitehouse.gov. 2012-12-17. Retrieved 2012-12-18. 
33. Yomiuri: Court rules lower house poll invalid / Vote disparity in Hiroshima 'too wide' (english)
34. The Mainichi: Hiroshima court rules Dec. election invalid over vote disparity (english)
35. Sekiguchi, Toko (25 March 2013). "Hiroshima Court Rules Election Invalid". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 22 March 2018. 

External links

• Election results (NHK World)
• Detailed results (Yomiuri Shimbun) (Japanese)