Next Japanese general election

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Next Japanese general election
Flag of Japan.svg
  2024 By 27 October 2028

All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Ishiba Shigeru 20241001 (cropped).jpg
Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg
Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda TBD
Party LDP CDP Ishin
Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 1 December 2024
Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th N/A
Last election191 seats148 seats38 seats
Current seats19114838
Seats neededIncrease2.svg42Increase2.svg85Increase2.svg195

 
Yuichiro Tamaki on May 31, 2024.jpg
Tetsuo Saito 20211004 (cropped).jpg
Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg
Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Tetsuo Saito Tarō Yamamoto
Party DPP Komeito Reiwa
Leader since11 September 20209 November 20241 April 2019
Leader's seat Kagawa 2nd Hiroshima 3rd Did not stand [a]
Last election28 seats24 seats9 seats
Current seats28249
Seats neededIncrease2.svg205Increase2.svg209Increase2.svg234

 
Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg
Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg
Naoki Hyakuta cropped 2 Naoki Hyakuta and Kiyoaki Kawanami 20171029.jpg
Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta
Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ
Leader since18 January 2024 [b] 30 August 20231 September 2023
Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand [a] N/A
Last election8 seats3 seats3 seats
Current seats833
Seats neededIncrease2.svg225Increase2.svg230Increase2.svg230

2024 Japan General Election (blank).svg
Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength

Incumbent Prime Minister

TBD



The 51st general election of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 176 proportional blocks. [1]

Contents

Background

The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Libereal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. [2]

The election will likely take place after:

Electoral system

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average Party Identification Polling for the Next Japanese General Election.svg
LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average

Notes

  1. 1 2 A Member of the House of Councillors.
  2. As the party's chairperson.

Related Research Articles

A member of parliament (MP) is the representative in parliament of the people who live in their electoral district. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, this term refers only to members of the lower house since upper house members often have a different title. The terms congressman/congresswoman or deputy are equivalent terms used in other jurisdictions. The term parliamentarian is also sometimes used for members of parliament, but this may also be used to refer to unelected government officials with specific roles in a parliament and other expert advisers on parliamentary procedure such as the Senate parliamentarian in the United States. The term is also used to the characteristic of performing the duties of a member of a legislature, for example: "The two party leaders often disagreed on issues, but both were excellent parliamentarians and cooperated to get many good things done."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Diet</span> National legislature of Japan

The National Diet is the national legislature of Japan. It is composed of a lower house, called the House of Representatives, and an upper house, the House of Councillors. Both houses are directly elected under a parallel voting system. In addition to passing laws, the Diet is formally responsible for nominating the Prime Minister. The Diet was first established as the Imperial Diet in 1890 under the Meiji Constitution, and took its current form in 1947 upon the adoption of the post-war constitution. Both houses meet in the National Diet Building in Nagatachō, Chiyoda, Tokyo.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">House of Representatives (Japan)</span> Lower house of the National Diet of Japan

The House of Representatives is the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. The House of Councillors is the upper house. The composition of the House is established by Article 41 and Article 42 of the Constitution of Japan. The House of Representatives has 465 members, elected for a four-year term. Of these, 176 members are elected from 11 multi-member constituencies by a party-list system of proportional representation, and 289 are elected from single-member constituencies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">House of Councillors</span> Upper house of the National Diet of Japan

The House of Councillors is the upper house of the National Diet of Japan. The House of Representatives is the lower house. The House of Councillors is the successor to the pre-war House of Peers. If the two houses disagree on matters of the budget, treaties, or the nomination of the prime minister, the House of Representatives can insist on its decision. In other decisions, the House of Representatives can override a vote of the House of Councillors only by a two-thirds majority of members present.

An electoraldistrict, sometimes called a constituency, riding, or ward, is a subdivision of a larger state created to provide its population with representation in the larger state's legislature. That body, or the state's constitution or a body established for that purpose, determines each district's boundaries and whether each will be represented by a single member or multiple members. Generally, only voters (constituents) who reside within the district are permitted to vote in an election held there. District representatives may be elected by a first-past-the-post system, a proportional representative system, or another voting method. They may be selected by a direct election under universal suffrage, an indirect election, or another form of suffrage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Elections in Japan</span>

The Japanese political process has two types of elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2005 Japanese general election</span>

General elections were held in Japan on 11 September 2005 for all 480 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Diet. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi called the election almost two years before the end of the term taken from the previous elections in 2003, after bills to privatize Japan Post were voted down in the upper house, despite strong opposition from within his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">New Party Daichi</span> Political party in Japan

The New Party Daichi is a Japanese political party. The party works based on jurisdiction and administrative divisions. The party's leader is Muneo Suzuki, a member of the House of Councillors who formerly caucused with the Nippon Ishin no Kai and was a Representative for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2001 Japanese House of Councillors election</span>

House of Councillors elections were held in Japan on 29 July 2001. They were the first national elections since Junichiro Koizumi became Prime Minister after Yoshiro Mori resigned in April 2001. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its election allies, were the major winner, provided Koizumi a strong mandates to move forward with his reform policies. The ruling coalition performed well, and regain their majority in the House of Councillors.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Japanese general election</span>

General elections were held in Japan on August 30, 2009 to elect the 480 members of the House of Representatives. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) defeated the ruling coalition in a landslide, winning 221 of the 300 constituency seats and receiving 42.4% of the proportional block votes for another 87 seats, a total of 308 seats to only 119 for the LDP.

Electoral districts go by different names depending on the country and the office being elected.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tokyo proportional representation block</span> Proportional representation constituency for the House of Representatives in the Diet of Japan

The Tōkyō proportional representation block, or more formally the proportional representation tier "Tokyo Metropolis electoral district", is one of eleven proportional representation (PR) "blocks", multi-member constituencies for the House of Representatives in the Diet of Japan. It consists solely of the prefecture of Tokyo making it one of two blocks covering only one prefecture, the other being Hokkaido. Following the introduction of proportional voting Tokyo elected 19 representatives by PR in the 1996 general election, and 17 since the election of 2000 when the total number of PR seats was reduced from 200 to 180.

Sekihairitsu is a method used in the proportional representation (PR) constituencies ("blocks") for the Japanese House of Representatives to determine the order of candidates placed on the same list position by their party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Winner-take-all system</span> System favoring larger parties over smaller ones

A winner-take-all electoral system is one where a voting bloc can win all seats in a legislature or electoral district, denying representation to any political minorities. Such systems are used in many major democracies. Such systems are sometimes called "majoritarian representation", though this term is a misnomer, as most such systems do not always elect majority preferred candidates and do not always produce winners who received majority of votes cast in the district, and they allow parties to take a majority of seats in the chamber with just a minority of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Japanese House of Councillors election</span>

House of Councillors elections were held in Japan on Sunday 10 July 2016 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years. As a result of the election, the Liberal Democratic Party–Komeito coalition gained ten seats for a total of 145, the largest coalition achieved since the size of the house was set at 242 seats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Japanese general election</span>

General elections were held in Japan on 31 October 2021, as required by the constitution. Voting took place in all constituencies in order to elect members to the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. As the constitution requires the cabinet to resign in the first Diet session after a general election, the elections will also lead to a new election for Prime Minister in the Diet, and the appointment of a new cabinet, although ministers may be re-appointed. The election was the first general election of the Reiwa era.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Japanese House of Councillors election</span>

House of Councillors elections were held in Japan on 21 July 2019 to elect 124 of the 245 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the then 710-member bicameral National Diet, for a term of six years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Japanese general election</span>

General elections were held in Japan on 27 October 2024 due to the early dissolution of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet, by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Voting took place in all constituencies, including proportional blocks, to elect all 465 members of the House of Representatives.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2025 Japanese House of Councillors election</span>

The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by 27 July 2025 to elect 124, half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years.

References

  1. "選挙の種類". 総務省.
  2. "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News. 2024-10-28.