Next Japanese general election

Last updated

Next Japanese general election
Flag of Japan.svg
  2024 By 27 October 2028

All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Ishiba Shigeru 20241001 (cropped).jpg
Yosuke Suzuki with Yoshihiko Noda 2024-10-20(3) (cropped).jpg
Hirofumi Yoshimura and Fujita Fumitake.png
Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda Hirofumi Yoshimura
Fumitake Fujita
Party LDP CDP Ishin
Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 1 December 2024
Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th N/A [a]
Osaka 12th
Last election191 seats148 seats38 seats
Current seats19114838
Seats neededIncrease2.svg42Increase2.svg85Increase2.svg195

 
Yuichiro Tamaki 2025-02-08(2) (cropped).jpg
Tetsuo Saito 20211004 (cropped).jpg
Taro Yamamoto 2022-6-26(1)(cropped).jpg
Leader Yuichiro Tamaki Tetsuo Saito Tarō Yamamoto
Party DPP Komeito Reiwa
Leader since4 December 20249 November 20241 April 2019
Leader's seat Kagawa 2nd Hiroshima 3rd Did not stand [b]
Last election28 seats24 seats9 seats
Current seats28249
Seats neededIncrease2.svg205Increase2.svg209Increase2.svg224

 
Tomoko Tamura 2024-10-26(4) (cropped).jpg
Sohei Kamiya 2023-2-19(1) (cropped).jpg
Naoki Hyakuta cropped 2 Naoki Hyakuta and Kiyoaki Kawanami 20171029.jpg
Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta
Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ
Leader since18 January 2024 [c] 30 August 20231 September 2023
Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand [b] Did not stand [b]
Last election8 seats3 seats3 seats
Current seats833
Seats neededIncrease2.svg225Increase2.svg230Increase2.svg230

2024 Japan General Election (blank).svg
Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength

Incumbent Prime Minister

Shigeru Ishiba
LDP



General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 11 proportional blocks (176 seats). [1]

Contents

The 2024 general election resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government based upon a Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the Prime Minister dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the House of Representatives passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the House of Representatives and House of Councillors.

Background

The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. [2]

Electoral system

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Political parties

PartiesLeader(s)IdeologySeatsStatus
Last electionCurrent
Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba Conservatism
Japanese nationalism
191 / 465
191 / 465
Governing coalition
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Yoshihiko Noda Liberalism
148 / 465
148 / 465
Opposition
Japan Innovation Party Hirofumi Yoshimura
Fumitake Fujita
Conservatism
Right-wing populism
38 / 465
38 / 465
Democratic Party For the People Motohisa Furukawa Conservatism
28 / 465
28 / 465
Komeito Tetsuo Saito Social conservatism
Buddhist democracy
24 / 465
24 / 465
Governing coalition
Reiwa Shinsengumi Tarō Yamamoto Progressivism
Left-wing populism
9 / 465
9 / 465
Opposition
Japanese Communist Party Tomoko Tamura Communism
8 / 465
8 / 465
Sanseitō Sohei Kamiya Right-wing populism
Ultraconservatism
3 / 465
3 / 465
Conservative Party of Japan Naoki Hyakuta Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
3 / 465
3 / 465
Social Democratic Party Mizuho Fukushima Social democracy
1 / 465
1 / 465
Independents and others
12 / 465
12 / 465
Mixed [d]

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average Party Identification Polling for the Next Japanese General Election.svg
LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average

Notes

  1. Currently serves as the Governor of Osaka Prefecture.
  2. 1 2 3 A Member of the House of Councillors.
  3. As the party's chairperson.
  4. Of the 12 independents, six are in government through caucusing with the LDP, while six are in the opposition (four in Yūshi no Kai, two not in any caucus).

References

  1. "選挙の種類". 総務省.
  2. "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News. 28 October 2024.