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All 40 seats in the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador 21 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 55.2% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election, held on November 30, 2015, elected members of the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador. The Progressive Conservative Party which had governed since 2003 election, was defeated by the Liberal Party, which won a majority in the new assembly. [2] [3] [4] [5]
The election had been scheduled for October 13, 2015, under Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly Act, mandating a fixed election day on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election. However, the House of Assembly amended the act in June 2015, to delay the election until November 30, 2015, so that the election campaign would not overlap with the federal election scheduled on October 19, 2015. [6]
Following the result of the election no party with the word "Conservative" in its name formed the government in either a provincial or federal jurisdiction in Canada for the first time since 1943. [7] [8]
At the time --with 55.2% of eligible voters casting a ballot -- this election had the lowest turnout of any provincial election since confederation. This record was broken in 2021 when only 48.24% of eligible voters cast a ballot. [9]
Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen. [10] On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012. [11] [12] Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013, Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party. [13] [14] [15]
On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader. [16] On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier. [17] Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014, and chose Paul Davis as its leader. [18] [19] [20] [21] Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014. [22]
In June 2015, Premier Davis announced that a general election would be held in November, after the October federal election. Many veteran PC MHAs who had served in Danny Williams' cabinet did not seek re-election. [56] On November 5, Davis visited the lieutenant governor to request that the House of Assembly be dissolved. The election would be held on November 30.
The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66 per cent support among decided voters at the outset [57] and 67 per cent support in a poll released just one week before election day. [58]
Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province, [59] although others suggested that this was unlikely. [60] Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested, [59] and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them. [60]
In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs. [61] [62]
The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile, who took fully 96.5 per cent of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes. [63]
This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.
Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | Dissol. | 2015 | Change | ||||||
Liberal | 114,271 | 57.15 | +38.1 | 6 | 16 | 31 | +15 | ||
Progressive Conservative | 60,413 | 30.22 | -25.9 | 37 | 29 | 7 | -22 | ||
New Democratic | 23,906 | 11.96 | -12.6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -1 | ||
Independents | 1,344 | 0.67 | +0.5 | ±0 | ±0 | 0 | ±0 | ||
Total | 199,934 | 100.00 | – | 48 | 48 | 40 | 0 |
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (June 2016) |
31 | 7 | 2 |
Liberal | Progressive Conservative | NDP |
The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However, in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%) while in 2015 they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%). By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes. 6 liberal candidates won over 80% of the popular vote in their respective ridings and 4 of these 6 candidates were later appointed to the Executive Council.
With this election PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). With 7 of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won 3 of 42 seats. [64]
In the 2011 election the NDP placed second in total votes and won 5 seats (a record-high for the party) however since the election 2 NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only 2 of the 3 remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election and these 2 MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning 2 of 40 seats (5%). However, NDP leader McCurdy was defeated in his district. [65]
The district with the highest turnout was Cape St. Francis (71.68%). The district with the lowest turnout was Torngat Mountains (39.50%). [66]
This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (June 2016) |
Party Name | St. John's | St. John's Metro | Avalon/Burin | Central | Western | Labrador | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parties winning seats in the legislature: | |||||||||
Progressive Conservative | Seats: | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
Popular Vote: | 19.81% | 54.74% | 29.71% | 34.51% | 13.50% | 18.90% | 30.22% | ||
Liberal | Seats: | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 | |
Popular Vote: | 50.27% | 36.97% | 61.80% | 55.76% | 79.19% | 63.41% | 57.15% | ||
New Democratic | Seats: | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
Popular Vote: | 29.92% | 8.29% | 8.19% | 7.17% | 7.31% | 17.69% | 11.96% | ||
Parties that won no seats in the legislature | |||||||||
Independent | Popular Vote: | 0.30% | 2.56% | 0.67% | |||||
Bold incumbents indicate cabinet members and party leaders are italicized. The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Mount Scio 46.81% turnout | Rhonda Churchill Herder 1,104 27.4% | Dale Kirby 1,899 47.1% | Sean Panting 1,030 25.5% | Dale Kirby St. John's North | ||||||
St. John's Centre 47.58% turnout | Kathie Hicks 490 10.6% | Lynn Sullivan 1,923 41.7% | Gerry Rogers 2,195 47.6% | Gerry Rogers | ||||||
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 56.40% turnout | Joshua Collier 478 8.1% | Paul Antle 2,365 40.2% | Lorraine Michael 3,035 51.6% | George Murphy† St. John's East | ||||||
St. John's West 55.63% turnout | Dan Crummell [67] 1,364 26.8% | Siobhan Coady [67] 2,342 46.0% | Earle McCurdy [67] 1,384 27.2% | Dan Crummell | ||||||
Virginia Waters-Pleasantville 56.55% turnout | Beth Crosbie 1,826 32.5% | Bernard Davis 2,528 45.0% | Bob Buckingham 1,259 22.4 | Lorraine Michael‡ Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi | ||||||
Waterford Valley 55.13% turnout | Alison Stoodley 792 14.6% | Tom Osborne 3,588 65.9% | Alison Coffin 1,062 19.5% | John Dinn Kilbride | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Tom Osborne St. John's South | ||||||||||
Windsor Lake 52.59% turnout | Ryan Cleary 970 20.2% | Cathy Bennett 3,182 66.3% | Don Rowe 647 13.5% | Cathy Bennett Virginia Waters |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Cape St. Francis 71.68% turnout | Kevin Parsons 4,086 66.3% | Geoff Gallant 1,613 26.2% | Mark Gruchy 460 7.5% | Kevin Parsons | ||||||
Conception Bay South 55.03% turnout | Barry Petten 2,360 47.7% | Steve Porter 2,187 44.2% | Jeanne Clarke 398 8.0% | Rex Hillier‡ | ||||||
Mount Pearl North 63.09% turnout | Steve Kent 3,120 51.5% | Randy Simms 2,571 42.4% | Cameron Mercer-Maillet 370 6.1% | Steve Kent | ||||||
Mount Pearl-Southlands 56.58% turnout | Jim Lester 2,318 42.9% | Paul Lane 2,559 47.4% | Roy Locke 522 9.7% | Paul Lane Mount Pearl South | ||||||
Conception Bay East – Bell Island 55.46% turnout | David Brazil 3,463 59.2% | Danny Dumaresque 1,582 27.1% | Bill Kavanagh 803 13.7% | David Brazil | ||||||
Topsail-Paradise 57.58% turnout | Paul Davis 3,381 58.3% | Rex Hillier 2,137 36.9% | Chris Bruce 281 4.8% | Paul Davis Topsail |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde 49.02% turnout | Tomas Shea 529 9.1% | Steve Crocker 4,952 85.0% | David Coish 304 5.2% | Ed Cole (Ind.) 38 0.7% | Steve Crocker Trinity-Bay de Verde | |||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Sam Slade§ Carbonear-Harbour Grace | ||||||||||
Ferryland 62.34% turnout | Keith Hutchings 3,093 49.8% | Jeff Marshall 2,550 41.1% | Mona Rossiter 564 9.1% | Keith Hutchings | ||||||
Harbour Grace-Port de Grave 59.50% turnout | Glenn Littlejohn 2,289 36.3% | Pam Parsons 3,877 61.5% | Kathleen Burt 133 2.1% | Glenn Littlejohn Port de Grave | ||||||
Harbour Main 56.31% turnout | Curtis Buckle 1,998 34.9% | Betty Parsley 2,253 39.4% | Raymond Flaherty 1,381 24.2% | Ted Noseworthy 85 1.5% | Tom Hedderson† | |||||
Placentia-St. Mary's 61.71% turnout | Judy Manning 1,751 30.5% | Sherry Gambin-Walsh 3,789 66.0% | Peter Beck 197 3.4% | Felix Collins† |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Bonavista 57.80% turnout | Glen Little 1,436 27.0% | Neil King 3,504 65.8% | Adrian Power 116 2.2% | Johanna Ryan Guy (Ind.) 269 5.1% | Glen Little Bonavista South | |||||
Burin-Grand Bank 53.60% turnout | Terence Fleming 441 8.8% | Carol Anne Haley 3,962 79.4% | Ambrose Penton 590 11.8% | Darin King† Grand Bank | ||||||
Placentia West-Bellevue 59.10% turnout | Calvin Peach 1,931 33.7% | Mark Browne 3,645 63.7% | Bobbie Warren 146 2.6% | Calvin Peach Bellevue | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Clyde Jackman† Burin-Placentia West | ||||||||||
Terra Nova 57.29% turnout | Sandy Collins 2,422 42.8% | Colin Holloway 2,476 43.7% | Bert Blundon 763 13.5 | Sandy Collins Terra Nova | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Ross Wiseman† Trinity North |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Baie Verte-Green Bay 55.90% turnout | Kevin Pollard 2,197 39.4% | Brian Warr 3,130 56.1% | Matt Howse 253 4.5% | Kevin Pollard Baie Verte-Springdale | ||||||
Exploits 56.16% turnout | Clayton Forsey 2,489 47.0% | Jerry Dean 2,654 50.2% | Bridget Henley 148 2.8% | Clayton Forsey | ||||||
Fogo Island-Cape Freels 48.20% turnout | Eli Cross 1,387 27.6% | Derrick Bragg 3,516 69.9% | Rebecca Stuckey 128 2.5% | Eli Cross Bonavista North | ||||||
Gander 47.40% turnout | Ryan Menchion 351 7.5% | John Haggie 3,151 67.7% | Lukas Norman 1,152 24.8% | Vacant | ||||||
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 67.66% turnout | Tracey Perry 1,830 49.1% | Bill Carter 1,405 37.7% | Mildred Skinner 494 13.2% | Tracey Perry | ||||||
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 54.32% turnout | Mark Whiffen 1,061 22.8% | Al Hawkins 2,534 54.6% | Meaghan Keating 141 3.0% | Rex Barnes (Ind.) 908 19.6% | Susan Sullivan† Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans | |||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Ray Hunter† Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South | ||||||||||
Lewisporte-Twillingate 58.44% turnout | Derrick Dalley 2,686 44.5% | Derek Bennett 3,254 53.9% | Hillary Bushell 99 1.6% | Wade Verge† Lewisporte | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Derrick Dalley The Isles of Notre Dame |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Burgeo-La Poile 57.73% turnout | Georgia Darmonkow 93 2.2% | Andrew Parsons 3,998 96.5% | Kelly McKeown 53 1.3% | Andrew Parsons | ||||||
Corner Brook 45.03% turnout | Neville Wheaton 779 16.6% | Gerry Byrne 3,121 66.7% | Holly Pike 781 16.7% | Vaughn Granter Humber West | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Stelman Flynn§ Humber East | ||||||||||
Humber - Gros Morne 64.85% turnout | Graydon Pelley 983 16.2% | Dwight Ball 4,610 76.0% | Mike Goosney 474 7.8% | Jim Bennett₰ St. Barbe | ||||||
Merged District | ||||||||||
Dwight Ball Humber Valley | ||||||||||
Humber-Bay of Islands 52.56% turnout | Ronald Jesseau 564 10.3% | Eddie Joyce 4,622 84.5% | Conor Curtis 282 5.2% | Eddie Joyce Bay of Islands | ||||||
St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows 52.65% turnout | Ford Mitchelmore 404 8.3% | Chris Mitchelmore 4,359 89.3% | Genevieve Brouillette 117 2.4% | Chris Mitchelmore The Straits-White Bay North | ||||||
St. George's-Humber 49.68% turnout | Greg Osmond 708 15.2% | Scott Reid 3,618 77.5% | Shane Snook 341 7.3% | Scott Reid St. George's-Stephenville East | ||||||
Stephenville-Port au Port 51.24% turnout | Tony Cornect 1,273 25.3% | John Finn 3,262 64.8% | Bernice Hancock 499 9.9% | Tony Cornect Port au Port |
Electoral district | Candidates | Incumbent | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PC | Liberal | NDP | Other | |||||||
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 49.30% turnout | Jason MacKenzie 48 3.2% | Lisa Dempster 1,405 93.0% | Jennifer Deon 57 3.8% | Lisa Dempster | ||||||
Labrador West 53.60% turnout | Nick McGrath 712 21.5% | Graham Letto 1,453 43.8% | Ron Barron 1,152 34.7% | Nick McGrath | ||||||
Lake Melville 47.97% turnout | Keith Russell 850 28.6% | Perry Trimper 1,840 62.0% | Arlene Michelin-Pittman 280 9.4% | Keith Russell | ||||||
Torngat Mountains 39.50% turnout | Sharon Vokey 23 2.7% | Randy Edmunds 779 92.6% | Mark Sharkey 39 4.6% | Randy Edmunds |
Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015. [68]
Progressive Conservative
| Liberal New Democratic Party |
Polling Firm | Date of Polling | Link | Progressive Conservative | Liberal | New Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forum Research | November 29, 2015 | 31 | 54 | 15 | |
Abacus Data | November 22–24, 2015 | 22 | 64 | 13 | |
Forum Research | November 24, 2015 | 29 | 52 | 19 | |
Corporate Research Associates | November 5–22, 2015 | 22 | 67 | 10 | |
MQO | November 5–11, 2015 | 17 | 74 | 9 | |
Forum Research | November 6, 2015 | 21 | 65 | 13 | |
Abacus Data | October 30–November 4, 2015 | 19 | 66 | 15 | |
Corporate Research Associates | August 11–September 2, 2015 | 27 | 48 | 25 | |
Abacus Data/VOCM | June 17–21, 2015 | 21 | 53 | 25 | |
Corporate Research Associates | May 11–June 1, 2015 | 27 | 50 | 22 | |
Corporate Research Associates | February 9–March 2, 2015 | 31 | 56 | 13 | |
Abacus Data | February 17–25, 2015 | 32 | 57 | 9 | |
Corporate Research Associates | November 5–30, 2014 | 29 | 60 | 10 | |
MQO | October 20–25, 2014 | 28 | 62 | 11 | |
Corporate Research Associates | August 7–September 1, 2014 | 26 | 58 | 15 | |
Abacus Data/VOCM | July 28–August 1, 2014 | 34 | 48 | 16 | |
Corporate Research Associates | May 12–31, 2014 | 29 | 53 | 16 | |
Corporate Research Associates | February 11– March 4, 2014 | 33 | 53 | 13 | |
Abacus Data/VOCM | January 27–30, 2014 | 34 | 49 | 15 | |
Corporate Research Associates | November 7–30, 2013 | 29 | 52 | 19 | |
MQO | October 22–26, 2013 | [82] | 29 | 52 | 18 |
Corporate Research Associates | August 8–31, 2013 | 26 | 41 | 33 | |
Corporate Research Associates | May 8–30, 2013 | 27 | 36 | 37 | |
Corporate Research Associates | February 11–March 8, 2013 | 38 | 22 | 39 | |
MQO | January 21–27, 2013 | [83] | 36 | 28 | 35 |
Corporate Research Associates | November 13-December 1, 2012 | [84] | 46 | 23 | 31 |
Corporate Research Associates | August 9–September 2, 2012 | 45 | 22 | 33 | |
Environics Research Group | June 19–29, 2012 | 35 | 26 | 38 | |
Corporate Research Associates | May 10–June 4, 2012 | 49 | 18 | 33 | |
Corporate Research Associates | February 13–29, 2012 | HTML | 54 | 18 | 28 |
Corporate Research Associates | November 9–29, 2011 | 60 | 13 | 26 | |
Election 2011 | October 11, 2011 | – | 56.1 | 19.1 | 24.6 |
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