Megaproject

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Itaipu Dam, an example of a 20th-century megaproject ItaipuAerea2AAL.jpg
Itaipu Dam, an example of a 20th-century megaproject
The Trans-Siberian Railway and other railways in the Asiatic part of the Russian Empire in 1900--an important 19th-century megaproject Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary b54 360-2.jpg
The Trans-Siberian Railway and other railways in the Asiatic part of the Russian Empire in 1900—an important 19th-century megaproject

A megaproject is an extremely large-scale investment project. [1] According to the Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, "Megaprojects are large-scale, complex ventures that typically cost $1 billion or more, take many years to develop and build, involve multiple public and private stakeholders, are transformational, and impact millions of people". [2] However, $1 billion is not a constraint in defining megaprojects; in some contexts a relative approach is needed, such as in developing countries, where a much smaller project (such as one with a $100 million budget) could constitute a megaproject. Therefore, a more general definition is "Megaprojects are temporary endeavours (i.e. projects) characterised by: large investment commitment, vast complexity (especially in organisational terms), and long-lasting impact on the economy, the environment, and society". [3]

Contents

Bent Flyvbjerg, a professor at the Saïd Business School of the University of Oxford says that globally, megaprojects make up 8 percent of total global GDP. [4] Megaprojects refer not only to construction projects but also decommissioning projects, which are projects that can reach multi-billion budgets, and have a high level of innovation and complexity, and are affected by a number of techno-socio-economic and organizational challenges. [5] [6]

The OFCCP Mega Construction Project (Megaproject) Program involves projects valued at over $35 million. [7]

Planning bias

Care in the project development process is required to reduce any possible optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation, as a curious paradox exists in which more and more megaprojects are being proposed despite their consistently poor performance against initial forecasts of budget, schedule, and benefits. [8]

Downsides

Megaprojects are often affected by corruption, leading to higher cost and lower benefit. [9]

According to the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), megaprojects are characterized both by "extreme complexity (both in technical and human terms) and by a long record of poor delivery". [1] Megaprojects attract a lot of public attention because of substantial impacts on communities, environment, and budgets, and the high costs involved. [10] Megaprojects can also be defined as "initiatives that are physical, very expensive, and public". [11]

Examples

Megaprojects include special economic zones, public buildings, power plants, dams, airports, hospitals, seaports, bridges, highways, tunnels, railways, wastewater projects, oil and natural gas extraction projects, aerospace projects, weapons systems, information technology systems, large-scale sporting events and, more recently, mixed use waterfront redevelopments; however, the most common megaprojects are in the categories of hydroelectric facilities, nuclear power plants, and large public transportation projects. Megaprojects can also include large-scale high-cost initiatives in scientific research and infrastructure, such as the sequencing of the human genome, a significant global advance in genetics and biotechnology.

According to Bent Flyvbjerg, "As a general rule of thumb, 'megaprojects' are measured in billions of dollars, 'major projects' in hundreds of millions, and 'projects' in millions and tens of millions." [4]

Rationale

The logic [ by whom? ] on which many of the typical megaprojects are built is collective benefits; for example electricity for everybody (who can pay), road access (for those that have cars), etc. They may also serve as a means to open frontiers. [12] Megaprojects have been criticised for their top-down planning processes and their ill effects on certain communities. Large scale projects often advantage one group of people while disadvantaging another, for instance, the Three Gorges Dam in China, the largest hydroelectric project in the world, [13] required the displacement of 1.2 million farmers. [14] [15] In the 1970s, the highway revolts in some Western nations saw urban activists opposing government plans to demolish buildings for freeway route construction, on the basis that such demolitions would unfairly disadvantage the urban working class and benefit commuters. [16] Anti-nuclear protests against proposed nuclear power plants in the United States and Germany prevented developments due to environmental and social concerns.[ citation needed ]

More recently,[ when? ] new types of megaprojects have been identified that no longer follow the old models of being singular and monolithic in their purposes, but have become quite flexible and diverse, such as waterfront redevelopment schemes that seem to offer something to everybody.[ clarification needed ][ citation needed ] However, just like the old megaprojects, the new ones also foreclose "upon a wide variety of social practices, reproducing rather than resolving urban inequality and disenfranchisement". [17] Because of their plethora of land uses "these mega-projects inhibit the growth of oppositional and contestational practices". [17] The collective benefits that are often the underlying logic of a mega-project, are here reduced to an individualized form of public benefit.

Flyvbjerg argues that policymakers are attracted to megaprojects for four reasons:

Economics

Proponents of infrastructure-based development advocate for funding large-scale projects to create long-term economic benefits. Investing in megaprojects in order to stimulate the general economy has been a popular policy measure since the economic crisis of the 1930s. Recent examples are the 2008–2009 Chinese economic stimulus program, the 2008 European Union stimulus plan, and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Megaprojects often raise capital based on expected returns—though projects often go overbudget and over time, and market conditions like commodity prices can change. [18] Concern at cost overruns is often expressed by critics of megaprojects during the planning phase. Bent Flyvbjerg has noted the existence of incentives to overstate income, underestimate costs, and exaggerate future social and economic benefits due to lack of accountability and risk-sharing mechanisms. [19] If the megaproject is delivered in a country with relevant corruption the likelihood and magnitude of having overbudgets increases. [20]

One of the most challenging aspects of megaprojects is obtaining sufficient funding. Alan Altshuler and David Luberoff have found that creative and politically adept political leadership is required to secure resources as well as generate public support, mollify critics, and manage conflict through many years of planning, authorization and implementation. [21] Other challenges faced by those planning megaprojects include laws and regulations that empower community groups, contested information and methodologies, high levels of uncertainty, avoiding impacts on neighborhoods and the environment, and attempting to solve a wicked problem. [22]

See also

Related Research Articles

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Benchmarking is the practice of comparing business processes and performance metrics to industry bests and best practices from other companies. Dimensions typically measured are quality, time and cost.

Value engineering (VE) is a systematic analysis of the functions of various components and materials to lower the cost of goods, products and services with a tolerable loss of performance or functionality. Value, as defined, is the ratio of function to cost. Value can therefore be manipulated by either improving the function or reducing the cost. It is a primary tenet of value engineering that basic functions be preserved and not be reduced as a consequence of pursuing value improvements. The term "value management" is sometimes used as a synonym of "value engineering", and both promote the planning and delivery of projects with improved performance

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Planning fallacy</span> Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed

The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned. The bias affects predictions only about one's own tasks. On the other hand, when outside observers predict task completion times, they tend to exhibit a pessimistic bias, overestimating the time needed. The planning fallacy involves estimates of task completion times more optimistic than those encountered in similar projects in the past.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuclear decommissioning</span> Process of dismantling a nuclear facility

Nuclear decommissioning is the process leading to the irreversible complete or partial closure of a nuclear facility, usually a nuclear reactor, with the ultimate aim at termination of the operating licence. The process usually runs according to a decommissioning plan, including the whole or partial dismantling and decontamination of the facility, ideally resulting in restoration of the environment up to greenfield status. The decommissioning plan is fulfilled when the approved end state of the facility has been reached.

<i>Rationality and Power</i> Book by Bent Flyvbjerg

Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice is a 1998 book by Bent Flyvbjerg, published by the University of Chicago Press. The book focuses on "the application of critical theory to urban and community development". Flyvbjerg here deploys the methodology for doing social science, which he developed in Making Social Science Matter (2001). Upon publication, the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research called Rationality and Power, "a notable addition to the literature," the reviewer adding, "I cannot think of a better account of how power relations are embodied in local governance."

A cost overrun, also known as a cost increase or budget overrun, involves unexpected incurred costs. When these costs are in excess of budgeted amounts due to a value engineering underestimation of the actual cost during budgeting, they are known by these terms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Boston Transportation Planning Review</span> 1972 transit review of the Boston area

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Bent Flyvbjerg is a Danish economic geographer. He was the First BT Professor and Inaugural Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University's Saïd Business School and is the Villum Kann Rasmussen Professor and Chair of Major Program Management at the IT University of Copenhagen. He was previously Professor of Planning at Aalborg University, Denmark and Chair of Infrastructure Policy and Planning at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He is a fellow of St Anne's College, Oxford.

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Project assurance or programme assurance is a discipline that seeks to provide an independent and objective oversight of the likely future performance of major projects for those responsible for sanctioning, financing or insuring such undertakings. The discipline has emerged as a response to consistent problems in major projects and the need to provide confidence for project or programme stakeholders of technologically advanced, high capital or high risk projects.

Benefits Realization Management (BRM) is one of the many ways of managing how time and resources are invested into making desirable changes.

<i>Megaprojects and Risk</i>

Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition is a 2003 book by Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, published by Cambridge University Press. According to chief economist and director of transportation policy at Infrastructure Management Group, Inc., Porter K. Wheeler, "this book makes an important contribution to understanding the infrastructure development process worldwide, with focus on megaprojects." The New Scientist wrote upon publication, "Love them or loathe them, megaprojects capture the imagination. [This] damning analysis concentrates on a series of financial nightmares that should bring even the most casual reader out in a sweat."

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References

  1. 1 2 "Megaproject: The Effective Design and Delivery of Megaprojects in the EU". European Cooperation in Science and Technology.
  2. Flyvbjerg, Bent (2017). The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management. Oxford University Press. p. 2. ISBN   978-0198732242.
  3. Brookes, Naomi J.; Locatelli, Giorgio (2015-10-01). "Power plants as megaprojects: Using empirics to shape policy, planning, and construction management" (PDF). Utilities Policy. 36: 57–66. doi:10.1016/j.jup.2015.09.005. S2CID   8165155.
  4. 1 2 3 Flyvbjerg, Bent (7 Apr 2014). "What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview". Project Management Journal. 45 (2): 6–19. arXiv: 1409.0003 . Bibcode:2014arXiv1409.0003F. doi:10.1002/pmj.21409. S2CID   153469512. SSRN   2424835.
  5. Invernizzi, Diletta Colette; Locatelli, Giorgio; Brookes, Naomi J. (October 2017). "Managing social challenges in the nuclear decommissioning industry: A responsible approach towards better performance". International Journal of Project Management. 35 (7): 1350–1364. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.12.002.
  6. Invernizzi, Diletta Colette; Locatelli, Giorgio; Grönqvist, Marcus; Brookes, Naomi J. (2019-01-28). "Applying value management when it seems that there is no value to be managed: the case of nuclear decommissioning". International Journal of Project Management. 37 (5): 668–683. doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2019.01.004. ISSN   0263-7863. S2CID   115941020. Archived from the original on 1 Feb 2019. Alt URL
  7. "Office of Federal Contractor Compliance Programs: Mega Construction Project Program".
  8. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition (Cambridge UK, Cambridge University Press, 2003). ISBN   0-521-00946-4
  9. Locatelli, Giorgio; Mariani, Giacomo; Sainati, Tristano; Greco, Marco (2017-04-01). "Corruption in public projects and megaprojects: There is an elephant in the room!". International Journal of Project Management. 35 (3): 252–268. doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.09.010 .
  10. "Project Delivery Defined". Federal Highway Administration. Prior to the enactment of SAFETEA-LU in August 2005, projects with over $1 billion in construction costs were designated as "Mega Projects". SAFETEA-LU has lowered the monetary threshold from an estimated total cost of $1 billion to $500 million or greater, and the term "Mega Project" has since been eliminated and replaced with the term "Major Project."
  11. Alan Altshuler and David Luberoff, Mega-Projects: The Changing Politics of Urban Public Investment (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2003). ISBN   0-8157-0129-2
  12. "The Political Economy of Very Large Space Projects". Journal of Evolution and Technology. November 1999. Retrieved 16 November 2015.
  13. "Three Gorges breaks world record for hydropower generation". Xinhua. 1 January 2014. Archived from the original on January 2, 2015. Retrieved 2 January 2015.
  14. "Millions forced out by China dam". BBC News. 2007-10-12. Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  15. Julie Chao (2001-05-15). "Relocation for Giant Dam Inflames Chinese Peasants". National Geographic. Retrieved 2008-01-20.
  16. Gillham, Oliver; MacLean, Alex (2002), The Limitless City: A Primer on the Urban Sprawl Debate, Island Press, ISBN   978-1-55963-833-3
  17. 1 2 Lehrer, U.; Laidley, J. (2008). "Old Mega-projects Newly Packaged? Waterfront Redevelopment in Toronto". International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. 32 (4): 786–803. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2427.2008.00830.x.
  18. "Crude Oil's Fall Pressures Energy Megaprojects". Wall Street Journal. 8 Dec 2014.
  19. Flyvberg, B., Bruzelius, N., Rothengatter, W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  20. Locatelli, Giorgio; Mariani, Giacomo; Sainati, Tristano; Greco, Marco (2017-04-01). "Corruption in public projects and megaprojects: There is an elephant in the room!". International Journal of Project Management. 35 (3): 252–268. doi: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.09.010 .
  21. Altshuler, Alan and David Luberoff. Mega-Projects: The Changing Politics of Urban Public Investment. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2003.
  22. Plotch, Philip Mark. What’s Taking So Long? Identifying the Underlying Causes of Delays in Planning Transportation Megaprojects in the United States. Journal of Planning Literature. Available online January 8, 2015.