Monetary inflation

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Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply of a country (or currency area). Depending on many factors, especially public expectations, the fundamental state and development of the economy, and the transmission mechanism, it is likely to result in price inflation, which is usually just called "inflation", which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. [1] [2]

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There is general agreement among economists that there is a causal relationship between monetary inflation and price inflation. But there is neither a common view about the exact theoretical mechanisms and relationships, nor about how to accurately measure it. This relationship is also constantly changing, within a larger complex economic system. So there is a great deal of debate on the issues involved, such as how to measure the monetary base and price inflation, how to measure the effect of public expectations, how to judge the effect of financial innovations on the transmission mechanisms, and how much factors like the velocity of money affect the relationship. Thus, there are different views on what could be the best targets and tools in monetary policy.

However, there is a general consensus on the importance and responsibility of central banks and monetary authorities in setting public expectations of price inflation and in trying to control it.

Currently, most central banks follow a monetarist or Keynesian approach, or more often a mix of both. There is a trend of central banks towards the use of inflation targeting. [2]

Quantity theory

The monetarist explanation of inflation operates through the Quantity Theory of Money, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of circulation, P is the price level and T is total transactions or output. As monetarists assume that V and T are determined, in the long run, by real variables, such as the productive capacity of the economy, there is a direct relationship between the growth of the money supply and inflation.

The mechanisms by which excess money might be translated into inflation are examined below. Individuals can also spend their excess money balances directly on goods and services. This has a direct impact on inflation by raising aggregate demand. Also, the increase in the demand for labour resulting from higher demands for goods and services will cause a rise in money wages and unit labour costs. The more inelastic the aggregate supply in the economy, the greater the impact on inflation.

The increase in demand for goods and services may cause a rise in imports. Although this leakage from the domestic economy reduces the money supply, it also increases the supply of money on the international markets thus applying downward pressure on the exchange rate. This may cause imported inflation.

Modern Monetary Theory

Modern Monetary Theory, like all derivatives of the Chartalist school, emphasizes that in nations with monetary sovereignty, a country is always able to repay debts that are denominated in its own currency. However, under modern-day monetary systems, the supply of money is largely determined endogenously. But exogenous factors like government surpluses and deficits play a role and allow government to set inflation targets. Yet, adherents of this school note that monetary inflation and price inflation are distinct, and that when there is idle capacity, monetary inflation can cause a boost in aggregate demand which can, up to a point, offset price inflation. [3]

Austrian view

The Austrian School maintains that inflation is any increase of the money supply (i.e. units of currency or means of exchange) that is not matched by an increase in demand for money, or as Ludwig von Mises put it:

In theoretical investigation there is only one meaning that can rationally be attached to the expression Inflation: an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term, so as to include fiduciary media as well), that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the need for money (again in the broader sense of the term), so that a fall in the objective exchange-value of money must occur. [4]

Given that all major economies currently have a central bank supporting the private banking system, money can be supplied into these economies by means of bank credit (or debt). [5] Austrian economists believe that credit growth propagates business cycles (see Austrian Business Cycle Theory).

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Knut Wicksell</span> Swedish economist (1851–1926)

Johan Gustaf Knut Wicksell was a Swedish economist of the Stockholm school. He was professor at Uppsala University and Lund University.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Money creation</span> Process by which the money supply of an economic region is increased

Money creation, or money issuance, is the process by which the money supply of a country, or an economic or monetary region, is increased. In most modern economies, money is created by both central banks and commercial banks. Money issued by central banks is a liability, typically called reserve deposits, and is only available for use by central bank account holders, which are generally large commercial banks and foreign central banks.

The Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) is an economic theory developed by the Austrian School of economics seeking to explain how business cycles occur. The theory views business cycles as the consequence of excessive growth in bank credit due to artificially low interest rates set by a central bank or fractional reserve banks. The Austrian business cycle theory originated in the work of Austrian School economists Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Hayek won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1974 in part for his work on this theory.

In macroeconomics, the classical dichotomy is the idea, attributed to classical and pre-Keynesian economics, that real and nominal variables can be analyzed separately. To be precise, an economy exhibits the classical dichotomy if real variables such as output and real interest rates can be completely analyzed without considering what is happening to their nominal counterparts, the money value of output and the interest rate. In particular, this means that real GDP and other real variables can be determined without knowing the level of the nominal money supply or the rate of inflation. An economy exhibits the classical dichotomy if money is neutral, affecting only the price level, not real variables. As such, if the classical dichotomy holds, money only affects absolute rather than the relative prices between goods.

The real economy concerns the production, purchase and flow of goods and services within an economy. It is contrasted with the financial economy, which concerns the aspects of the economy that deal purely in transactions of money and other financial assets, which represent ownership or claims to ownership of real sector goods and services.

Modern monetary theory or modern money theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires. According to MMT, governments do not need to worry about accumulating debt since they can pay interest by printing money. MMT argues that the primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which acts as the only constraint on spending. MMT also argues that inflation can be controlled by increasing taxes on everyone, to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector.

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Macroeconomic theory has its origins in the study of business cycles and monetary theory. In general, early theorists believed monetary factors could not affect real factors such as real output. John Maynard Keynes attacked some of these "classical" theories and produced a general theory that described the whole economy in terms of aggregates rather than individual, microeconomic parts. Attempting to explain unemployment and recessions, he noticed the tendency for people and businesses to hoard cash and avoid investment during a recession. He argued that this invalidated the assumptions of classical economists who thought that markets always clear, leaving no surplus of goods and no willing labor left idle.

Market monetarism is a school of macroeconomics that advocates that central banks use a nominal GDP level target instead of inflation, unemployment, or other measures of economic activity, with the goal of mitigating demand shocks such those experienced in the 2007–2008 financial crisis and during the post-pandemic inflation surge. Market monetarists criticize the fallacy that low interest rates always correspond to easy money. Market monetarists are sceptical about fiscal stimulus, noting that it is usually offset by monetary policy.

References

  1. Michael F. Bryan, On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation, clevelandfed.org Archived 2008-08-19 at the Wayback Machine
  2. 1 2 Jahan, Sarwat. "Inflation Targeting: Holding the Line". International Monetary Funds, Finance & Development. Retrieved 28 December 2014.
  3. Éric Tymoigne and L. Randall Wray, "Modern Money Theory 101: A Reply to Critics," Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper No. 778 (November 2013).
  4. The Theory of Money and Credit, Mises (1912 [1981], p. 272)
  5. The Economics of Legal Tender Laws, Jörg Guido Hülsmann (includes detailed commentary on central banking, inflation and FRB)