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In development economics, the middle income trap is a situation where a country has developed until GDP per capita has reached a middle level of income, but the country does not develop further and it does not attain high income country status. [1] The term was introduced by the World Bank in 2007 who defined it as the "middle-income range" countries with gross national product per capita that has remained between $1,000 to $12,000 at constant (2011) prices. [2]
The term was coined by economists Indermit Gill and Homi Kharas in 2007 when they were working on the ground strategies for East Asian economics in the World Bank report "An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth". [3] [4]
According to the concept, a country in the middle-income trap has lost its competitive edge in the export of manufactured goods due to rising wages, but is unable to keep up with more developed economies in the high-value-added market. As a result, newly industrialized economies such as South Africa and Brazil have not, for decades, left what the World Bank defines as the 'middle-income range' since their per capita gross national product has remained between $1,000 to $12,000 at constant (2011) prices. [1] They suffer from low investment, slow growth in the secondary sector of the economy, limited industrial diversification and poor labor market conditions and, increasingly, aging populations. [5]
Sociologist Salvatore Babones and Political scientist Hartmut Elsenhans call the middle-income trap a "political trap" as economic methods to overcome it exist. However, few countries use them because of their political situation. They trace the causes of the trap to the structural problems and the inequalities generated in the early development process. According to them, the wealthy elites then follow their interests by bargaining for a strong currency which shifts the economy's structure towards the consumption of luxury goods and low-wage labor laws, which prevents the rise of mass consumption and mass income. They argue that countries can escape the middle-income trap by investing in physical and human infrastructure, enforcing social policies like higher minimum wages, and having a weak currency that makes exports competitive and stimulates domestic employment. [6] [7]
According to Asian Development Bank, avoiding the middle-income trap requires identifying strategies to introduce new processes and find new markets to maintain export growth. It is also essential to increase domestic demand because an expanding middle class can use its increasing purchasing power to buy high-quality, innovative products and help drive growth. [8] The biggest challenge is moving from resource-driven growth based on cheap labor and cheap capital to high productivity and innovation, which requires investments in infrastructure and education—building a high-quality education system that encourages creativity and supports breakthroughs in science and technology that can be applied back into the economy. [9] Diversifying exports is also considered important to escape the middle income trap. [10]
According to The Economist basing on data from the World Bank, from 1960 to 2022, only 23 economies have been said to have escaped the middle income trap, most notably the Four Asian Tigers of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, [11] and Taiwan, Seychelles in Africa, Poland in Central Europe, as well as Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. [12] [13]
Significant debates exist regarding the empirical validity of the "middle-income trap." [14]
Other economists either find that there is no middle income trap [15] or claim that debates about a "middle-income trap" appear anachronistic: middle-income countries have exhibited higher growth rates than all others since the mid-1980s. [16]
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is a regional development bank established on 19 December 1966, which is headquartered in 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong, Metro Manila 1550, Philippines. The bank also maintains 31 field offices around the world to promote social and economic development in Asia. The bank admits the members of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and non-regional developed countries. Starting with 31 members at its establishment, ADB now has 68 members.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector. Cotton, tobacco, wool, and meat are the main agricultural products, although only tobacco and cotton are exported in any quantity. According to Healy Consultants, Kyrgyzstan's economy relies heavily on the strength of industrial exports, with plentiful reserves of gold, mercury and uranium. The economy also relies heavily on remittances from foreign workers. Following independence, Kyrgyzstan was progressive in carrying out market reforms, such as an improved regulatory system and land reform. In 1998, Kyrgyzstan was the first Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country to be accepted into the World Trade Organization. Much of the government's stock in enterprises has been sold. Kyrgyzstan's economic performance has been hindered by widespread corruption, low foreign investment and general regional instability. Despite those issues, Kyrgyzstan is ranked 70th on the ease of doing business index.
In ancient times, Maldives were renowned for cowries, coir rope, dried tuna fish, ambergris (maavaharu) and coco de mer (tavakkaashi). Local and foreign trading ships used to load these products in the Maldives and bring them abroad.
The Four Asian Tigers are the developed Asian economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Between the early 1950s and 1990s, they underwent rapid industrialization and maintained exceptionally high growth rates of more than 7 percent a year.
The category of newly industrialized country (NIC), newly industrialized economy (NIE) or middle income country is a socioeconomic classification applied to several countries around the world by political scientists and economists. They represent a subset of developing countries whose economic growth is much higher than that of other developing countries; and where the social consequences of industrialization, such as urbanization, are reorganizing society.
The world economy or global economy is the economy of all humans in the world, referring to the global economic system, which includes all economic activities conducted both within and between nations, including production, consumption, economic management, work in general, financial transactions and trade of goods and services. In some contexts, the two terms are distinct: the "international" or "global economy" is measured separately and distinguished from national economies, while the "world economy" is simply an aggregate of the separate countries' measurements. Beyond the minimum standard concerning value in production, use and exchange, the definitions, representations, models and valuations of the world economy vary widely. It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of planet Earth.
The economy of Africa consists of the trade, industry, agriculture, and human resources of the continent. As of 2019, approximately 1.3 billion people were living in 53 countries in Africa. Africa is a resource-rich continent. Recent growth has been due to growth in sales, commodities, services, and manufacturing. West Africa, East Africa, Central Africa and Southern Africa in particular, are expected to reach a combined GDP of $29 trillion by 2050.
An emerging market is a market that has some characteristics of a developed market, but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become developed markets in the future or were in the past. The term "frontier market" is used for developing countries with smaller, riskier, or more illiquid capital markets than "emerging". As of 2006, the economies of China and India are considered to be the largest emerging markets. According to The Economist, many people find the term outdated, but no new term has gained traction. Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion. Emerging market economies’ share of global PPP-adjusted GDP has risen from 27 percent in 1960 to around 53 percent by 2013. The ten largest emerging economies by nominal GDP are 4 of the 9 BRICS countries along with Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Poland. The inclusion of South Korea, Poland, and sometimes Taiwan are questionable given they are no longer considered emerging markets by the IMF and World Bank If we ignore those three, the top ten would include Argentina and Thailand.
BRIC is a term describing the foreign investment strategies grouping acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The separate BRICS organisation would go on to become a political and economic organization largely based on such grouping. The grouping has been rendered as "the BRICs", "the BRIC countries", "the BRIC economies", or alternatively as the "Big Four".
The term "Hindu rate of growth" was coined by the Indian economist Raj Krishna in 1978. It refers to the annual growth rate of India's economy before the economic reforms of 1991, which averaged 4% from the 1950s to the 1980s. Advocates of liberalisation often use this term. However, modern neoliberal economists criticise the term, as they believe that the low growth rate was caused by the failed five-year plan model and economic mismanagement. Dirigiste policies often include indicative planning, state-directed investment, and the use of market instruments to incentivize market entities to fulfill state economic objectives. Eighth Five Year Plan was for managing the transition from a centrally planned economy to market led economy through indicative planning.
The Asian Century is the projected 21st-century dominance of Asian politics and culture, assuming certain demographic and economic trends persist. The concept of Asian Century parallels the characterisation of the 19th century as Britain's Imperial Century, and the 20th century as the American Century.
The economy of the Middle East is very diverse, with national economies ranging from hydrocarbon-exporting rentiers to centralized socialist economies and free-market economies. The region is best known for oil production and export, which significantly impacts the entire region through the wealth it generates and through labor utilization. In recent years, many of the countries in the region have undertaken efforts to diversify their economies.
The Chinese Century is a neologism suggesting that the 21st century may be geoeconomically or geopolitically dominated by the People's Republic of China, similar to how the "American Century" refers to the 20th century and the "British Century" to the 19th. The phrase is used particularly in association with the idea that the economy of China may overtake the economy of the United States to be the largest in the world. A similar term is China's rise or rise of China.
Income in India discusses the financial state in India. With rising economic growth and India's income is also rising rapidly. As an overview, India's per capita net national income or NNI was around Rs. 98,374 in 2022-23. The per-capita income is a crude indicator of the prosperity of a country. In contrast, the gross national income at constant prices stood at over 128 trillion rupees. According to a 2021 report by the Pew Research Center, India has roughly 1.2 billion lower-income individuals, 66 million middle-income individuals, 16 million upper-middle-income individuals, and barely 2 million in the high-income group. According to The Economist, 78 million of India's population are considered middle class as of 2017, if defined using the cutoff of those making more than $10 per day, a standard used by the India's National Council of Applied Economic Research. According to the World Bank, 93% of India's population lived on less than $10 per day, and 99% lived on less than $20 per day in 2021.
The economy of East Asia comprises 1.6 billion people living in six different countries and regions. The region includes several of the world's largest and most prosperous economies: Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, and Macau. It is home to some of the most economically dynamic places in the world, being the site of some of the world's most extended modern economic booms, including the Taiwan miracle (1950–present) in Taiwan, Miracle on the Han River (1974–present) in South Korea, Japanese economic miracle (1950–1990) and the Chinese economic miracle (1983–2010) in China.
While beginning in the United States, the Great Recession spread to Asia rapidly and has affected much of the region.
The Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) is an Asian think tank focused on identifying effective development strategies for Asia and the Pacific, and on providing support to ADB member countries in managing development challenges. It was established in Tokyo in 1996 as a subsidiary of Asian Development Bank, with initial and subsequent financing from the Government of Japan. ADBI is located on the 8th floor of the Kasumigaseki Building in Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda, Tokyo. ADBI was ranked 1st in the world among government-affiliated think tanks in the 2020 Global Go To Think Tanks Index Report by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program of the University of Pennsylvania.
Salvatore Babones is an American sociologist, and an associate professor at the University of Sydney.
The Philippines' history with the World Bank started in 1945 when they became one of the first members of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). Their first project with the Bank came in 1957 with the Binga Power Project. Since then, the Philippines has received $2.14 billion of disbursed loans from the IBRD. The Philippines is in the constituency entitled EDS 15, comprising Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago, and headed by Executive Director Fabio Kanczuk.
The economy of South Asia comprises 2 billion people living in eight countries. The Indian subcontinent was historically one of the richest regions in the world, comprising 25% of world GDP as recently as 1700, but experienced significant de-industrialisation and a doubling of extreme poverty during the colonial era of the late 18th to mid-20th century. In the post-colonial era, South Asia has grown significantly, with India advancing because of economic liberalisation from the 1980s onwards, and extreme poverty now below 15% in the region. South Asia has been the fastest-growing region of the world since 2014.