2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election

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2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election
Flag of Lithuania.svg
  2020 13 October 2024

All 141 seats in the Seimas
71 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
TS–LKD Gabrielius Landsbergis 50
LVŽS Ramūnas Karbauskis 19
DSVL Saulius Skvernelis 17
LRLS Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen 13
LSDP Vilija Blinkevičiūtė 13
LP Aušrinė Armonaitė 10
DP Andrius Mazuronis 8
LLRA–KŠS Valdemar Tomaševski 2
LRP Jonas Pinskus 2
LT Artūras Zuokas 0
Independents 4

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Lithuania by 13 October 2024, [1] [2] with a second round two weeks thereafter.

Contents

Electoral system

The Seimas has 141 members, elected to a four-year term in parallel voting, with 71 members elected in single-seat constituencies and 70 members elected by proportional representation. [3] The voting in the elections is open to all citizens of Lithuania who are at least 18 years old.

Parliament members in the 71 single-seat constituencies are elected in a majority vote, with a run-off held within 15 days, if necessary. The remaining 70 seats are allocated to the participating political parties using the largest remainder method. Parties normally need to receive at least 5% (7% for multi-party electoral lists) of the votes to be eligible for a seat. Candidates take the seats allocated to their parties based on the preference lists submitted before the election and adjusted by preference votes given by the voters. [3]

Background

Changes to the constitution and new electoral code

After passing amendment of Constitution's article № 56 in April 2022, to be eligible for election, candidates must be at least 21 years old on the election day, not under allegiance to a foreign state and permanently reside in Lithuania, [4] while previously, candidates needed to be at least 25 years old on the election day. Persons serving or due to serve a sentence imposed by the court 65 days before the election are not eligible. Also, judges, citizens performing military service, and servicemen of professional military service and officials of statutory institutions and establishments may not stand for election. [3] In addition, a person who has been removed from office through impeachment may be elected after 10 year period after impeachment. [5] [6]

On 23 June 2022 the Electoral Code was passed. The Code replaced various elections' acts and introduced several changes to the parliamentary elections. Firstly, it gave possibility to establish more than one worldwide constituency. Secondly, it removed a ban of political parties' agitation on Saturdays (e. g. one day prior elections). [7]

Impeached politicians that will be eligible for reelection

PoliticianPartyImpeachment dateEligibility for standing date
President of the Republic Rolandas Paksas Independent6 April 20046 April 2014
Member of Seimas Linas Karalius  [ lt ] National Resurrection Party 11 November 201011 November 2020
Member of Seimas Neringa Venckienė The Way of Courage 19 June 201419 June 2024

Boundary changes

In 2023, single-member constituencies were redrawn. Most boundary changes took part in Klaipėda, Kaunas, Vilnius and their suburbs. [8] [9]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election. 2024 Lithuanian Parliamentary Election Poll.svg
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Lithuanian parliamentary election.

Parliamentary election poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

PollsterFieldwork datesSample size TS–LKD LVŽS DP LSDP LP LRLS LLRA−KŠS LRP TTS LT DSVL NA Lead
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 March 2024 [lower-alpha 1] 1,00913.711.33.621.17.39.67.85.67.4
Baltijos tyrimai 15–25 March 20241,11511.815.47.423.22.66.52.85.22.812.16.57.8
Vilmorus 15–23 March 20241,00111.014.87.030.34.19.42.35.214.315.5
Baltijos tyrimai 22 February – 5 March 20241,02112.711.35.822.34.34.83.24.73.215.34.57.0
Spinter tyrimai 18–25 February 20241,01715.310.04.521.45.48.48.06.46.1
Vilmorus 8–17 February 20241,00217.613.67.329.62.57.01.75.113.612.0
Baltijos tyrimai 19–29 January 20241,02112.013.77.422.34.85.85.24.113.72.78.6
Spinter tyrimai 19–26 January 2024 [lower-alpha 2] 1,01215.110.82.922.95.68.29.75.97.8
Baltijos tyrimai 15–30 December 20231,01714.113.47.121.04.47.93.35.02.03.917.1-3.9
Spinter tyrimai 15–23 December 2023 [lower-alpha 3] 1,01215.913.83.224.03.89.12.92.93.88.9-8.1
Vilmorus 22 November – 2 December 20231,00012.612.55.932.74.65.91.95.13.612.3-20.1
Spinter tyrimai 17–29 November 20231,01515.412.721.95.210.53.24.14.06.3-6.5
Baltijos tyrimai 16–27 November 20231,01811.515.57.023.42.88.42.85.72.814.8-7.9
Vilmorus 9–19 November 202312.612.14.432.13.09.02.03.63.74.210.6-19.5
Baltijos tyrimai 23 October – 7 November 20231,01311.914.19.725.92.89.91.44.61.43.513.6-11.8
Spinter tyrimai 17–28 October 20231,01116.310.024.05.411.45.23.23.48.5-7.7
Vilmorus 12–21 October 2023 [lower-alpha 4] 1,00315.011.84.629.13.87.62.53.84.33.312.1-14.1
Spinter tyrimai 18–26 September 20231,01315.39.44.722.85.712.63.55.08.9-7.5
Vilmorus 14–23 September 20231,00319.212.44.531.93.77.41.73.92.84.09.3-14.7
Baltijos tyrimai 24 August – 5 September 20231,01612.512.87.521.83.99.52.93.51.25.018.9-2.9
Spinter tyrimai 20–29 July 20231,00917.412.13.819.64.210.73.33.912.4-2.2
Vilmorus 17–19 July 20231,00316.012.65.231.04.36.91.63.92.12.612.3-15.0
Spinter tyrimai 19–28 June 20231,01212.89.74.018.47.011.53.25.811.4-5.6
Baltijos tyrimai 14–29 June 20231,02011.811.57.823.23.59.04.25.52.82.918.6-4.6
Baltijos tyrimai 12–29 May 20231,00911.213.06.223.24.19.54.32.70.95.019.1-4.1
Spinter tyrimai 19–26 May 20231,00913.112.55.420.75.59.73.45.19.4-7.6
Vilmorus 17–21 May 20231,00013.015.46.229.83.97.01.62.61.44.413.5-14.4
Baltijos tyrimai 20 April – 5 May 20231,02613.49.79.125.83.59.73.42.31.93.217.2-8.6
Spinter tyrimai 18–27 April 20231,01416.613.72.723.53.89.83.810.1-6.7
Vilmorus 14–22 April 20231,00015.613.13.928.84.18.02.33.62.63.312.9-13.2
Spinter tyrimai 17–27 March 20231,01616.512.03.018.15.89.56.111.5-1.6
Vilmorus 9–18 March 20231,00015.114.04.328.23.97.12.02.83.24.213.4-13.1
2023 municipal elections 5 March 20231,169,17416.29.23.6717.453.556.955.332.472.60.926.68-1.25
Baltijos tyrimai 15–28 February 2023 [lower-alpha 5] 1,00314.210.08.918.33.47.44.83.62.34.718.3-Tie
Spinter tyrimai 18–27 February 20231,01216.712.35.517.25.87.83.913.9-0.5
Vilmorus 9–18 February 20231,00016.114.95.124.45.15.31.73.52.43.816.2-8.2
Baltijos tyrimai 19–31 January 2023 [lower-alpha 6] 1,02315.79.77.919.43.67.12.82.81.43.719.8-0.4
Spinter tyrimai 18–27 January 20231,01016.413.14.617.66.88.93.017.3-0.3
Spinter tyrimai 15–24 December 20221,01019.88.83.017.84.58.63.914.5-2.0
Vilmorus 8–15 December 20221,00016.712.76.025.03.69.31.82.71.93.415.3-8.3
Baltijos tyrimai 17 November – 2 December 2022 [lower-alpha 7] 1,02612.211.37.316.23.89.53.02.62.18.618.9-2.7
Spinter tyrimai 18–29 November 20221,01318.812.53.616.94.18.35.012.1-1.9
Vilmorus 10–19 November 20221,00017.110.55.624.32.58.12.93.41.29.513.1-7.2
Baltijos tyrimai 26 October – 8 November 2022 [lower-alpha 8] 1,02615.712.48.017.73.77.52.63.22.28.016.1-1.6
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 October 20221,01121.510.43.617.85.48.88.011.2-3.7
Vilmorus 11–16 October 20221,00218.710.15.823.72.78.61.44.41.97.511.4-3.5
Spinter tyrimai 20–30 September 20221,01018.710.15.817.66.19.77.510.1-1.1
Baltijos tyrimai 16−27 September 2022 [lower-alpha 9] 1,02413.410.68.320.03.67.04.23.42.48.915.7-4.3
Vilmorus 15–24 September 20221,00018.911.65.922.42.86.41.95.42.88.612.3-2.5
Spinter tyrimai 25 August – 2 September 20221,00619.110.83.612.77.89.86.414.5-4.6
Baltijos tyrimai August 2022 [lower-alpha 10] 15.010.66.418.33.19.42.72.21.18.720.1-1.8
Baltijos tyrimai 12–28 July 20221,02115.87.46.520.02.59.93.32.21.812.716.9-3.1
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 July 20221,01316.510.93.614.86.69.47.016.5-Tie
Vilmorus 15–23 July 20221,00317.411.66.120.83.98.71.33.61.86.816.2-3.4
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 June 20221,01519.79.54.216.45.28.07.517.0-2.7
Vilmorus 9–18 June 20221,00318.111.54.722.54.27.61.14.32.28.114.7-4.4
Baltijos tyrimai 16–28 May 20221,02115.47.36.817.13.78.52.92.53.010.720.9-3.8
Spinter tyrimai 18–27 May 20221,01320.38.65.118.76.58.16.812.8-1.6
Vilmorus 12–18 May 20221,00119.99.16.125.84.38.71.62.52.519.1-5.9
Spinter tyrimai 20–28 April 20221,00720.110.26.113.96.59.36.414.8-5.3
Baltijos tyrimai 13–27 April 20221,00914.76.66.319.02.99.53.81.01.010.722.0-3.0
Open Agency/Norstat 15–22 April 2022 [lower-alpha 11] 1,00023.411.84.516.66.57.12.51.32.05.512.4-6.8
Spinter tyrimai 17–25 March 20221,00719.39.76.215.15.58.96.915.8-3.5
Baltijos tyrimai 10–24 March 20221,00013.37.57.718.04.210.75.02.10.99.818.8-0.8
Vilmorus 10–19 March 20221,00519.010.76.923.02.38.21.34.03.519.8-3.2
Baltijos tyrimai 22 February – 3 March 20221,01716.68.78.817.14.19.53.71.40.78.819.5-2.4
Spinter tyrimai 17–25 February 20221,01017.39.69.417.66.58.65.912.5-0.3
Vilmorus 3–8 February 20221,00515.812.88.626.93.27.71.53.617.8-9.1
Baltijos tyrimai 24 January – 4 February 20221,02211.913.413.423.94.510.54.51.51.511.9-13.5
Spinter tyrimai 17–29 January 20221,01016.911.28.714.97.99.65.811.9-2.0
Spinter tyrimai 13–25 December 20211,01217.010.66.617.27.411.35.711.3-0.2
Open Agency/Norstat 10–18 December 2021 [lower-alpha 12] 1,00224.68.97.517.84.69.82.40.94.910.5-6.8
Vilmorus 10–18 December 20211,00017.513.79.932.03.810.91.25.5-14.5
Baltijos tyrimai 16 November – 2 December 20211,00915.515.07.825.74.111.23.32.62.610.1-10.2
Spinter tyrimai 11–28 November 20211,01516.513.49.019.48.09.03.05.0-2.9
Vilmorus 18–27 November 20211,00019.317.68.727.34.79.43.24.5-8.0
Baltijos tyrimai 17 October – 5 November 20211,00414.114.110.326.73.110.94.32.02.310.4-12.7
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 October 20211,01517.413.29.819.57.411.44.4-2.1
Vilmorus 15–22 October 20211,00016.716.19.828.94.610.82.25.2-12.2
Baltijos tyrimai 17 September – 3 October 20211,00415.515.17.825.74.111.23.42.72.710.2-10.2
Spinter tyrimai 17–26 September 20211,00918.613.89.421.28.010.13.0-2.6
Vilmorus 9–16 September 20211,00321.617.49.429.63.010.12.02.5-8.0
Spinter tyrimai 24–31 August 20211,01418.917.39.518.68.310.94.5-0.3
Baltijos tyrimai 20–31 August 20211,00615.717.37.425.95.09.15.52.58.6-8.6
Vilmorus 29 July – 5 August 20211,00019.523.28.723.64.48.12.64.0-0.4
Spinter tyrimai 17–28 June 20211,00320.822.86.315.38.510.92.7-2.0
Vilmorus 9–18 June 20211,00020.225.98.922.85.010.31.43.4-5.7
Baltijos tyrimai 20 May – 2 June 20211,01817.322.011.920.05.412.94.95.1-2.0
Spinter tyrimai 18–28 May 20211,01123.022.07.610.98.612.62.7-1.0
Vilmorus 11–21 May 20211,00424.526.87.316.95.810.22.15.1-2.3
Spinter tyrimai 19–28 April 20211,00623.723.17.48.29.012.53.6-0.6
Vilmorus 8–17 April 20211,00129.226.56.711.76.99.11.07.0-2.7
Spinter tyrimai 17–23 March 20211,01123.521.17.48.69.812.83.93.0-2.4
Spinter tyrimai 17–26 February 20211,01425.618.35.86.511.812.94.54.3-7.3
Spinter tyrimai 18–27 January 20211,01327.216.168.511.812.64.22.4-11.1
Spinter tyrimai 10–20 December 20201,00723.319.78.17.811.712.14.6-3.6
Baltijos tyrimai 6–30 November 20201,00422.719.010.59.411.312.94.71.92.54.2-3.7
2020 parliamentary election 1,174,84325.7718.079.779.599.457.054.973.282.362.06-7.7

Notes

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References

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