2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State

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2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State
←  2019 25 February 2023 [lower-alpha 1] 2027 →
Opinion polls
Registered1,056,862
Turnout16.38%
  Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg Peter Obi.png Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png
Nominee Atiku Abubakar Peter Obi Bola Tinubu
Party PDP LP APC
Home state Adamawa Anambra Lagos
Running mate Ifeanyi Okowa Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed Kashim Shettima
Popular vote68,81849,97542,572
Percentage41.62%30.23%25.75%
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State by LGA.png
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State by Federal Constituency.png
2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State by Senatorial District.png
LGA results

Tinubu:     30–40%     40–50%
Obi:     40–50%     50–60%

Contents

Abubakar:     40–50%     50–60%
President before election

Muhammadu Buhari
APC

Elected President

Bola Tinubu
APC

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria. [1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Bayelsa State is a small state in the South South mainly populated by Ijaw peoples; although its oil reserves make it one of the most resource-rich states in the nation, Bayelsa has faced challenges in security and environmental degradation in large part due to years of systemic corruption and illegal oil bunkering.

Politically, the state's early 2019 elections were categorized as the continuation of the PDP's dominance albeit with the APC making considerable gains by gaining one senate and two House of Representatives seats. The APC also gained ground in the assembly election and Bayelsa also was the state that swung the most towards Buhari in the presidential election, although that could be chalked up to former Governor Goodluck Jonathan no longer being PDP nominee. Later in 2019, the swing towards the APC dramatically increased as its gubernatorial nominee David Lyon won by a large margin but Diri was declared victor after Lyon was disqualified before the inauguration.

Polling

Polling organisation/clientFieldwork
date		Sample
size		 Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (5980497975) (Cropped).png Peter Obi.png Atiku Abubakar-2010 (cropped).jpg OthersUndecidedUndisclosedNot voting
Tinubu
APC 		Obi
LP 		Kwankwaso
NNPP 		Abubakar
PDP
BantuPage January 2023N/A9%27%2%13%–13%20%16%
Nextier
(Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)		27 January 2023N/A11.4%62.9%–20.0%–5.7%––
SBM Intelligence for EiE
(Bayelsa crosstabs of national poll)		22 January-6 February 2023N/A9%41%–47%–2%––

Projections

SourceProjectionAs of
Africa Elects [lower-alpha 2] [2] Lean Obi24 February 2023
Dataphyte [lower-alpha 3] [3]
Tinubu:20.87%11 February 2023
Obi:45.03%
Abubakar:28.05%
Others:6.05%
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence [lower-alpha 4] [4] 		Abubakar17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence [lower-alpha 5] [5] Abubakar15 December 2022
ThisDay [lower-alpha 6] [6]
Tinubu:20%27 December 2022
Obi:30%
Kwankwaso:–
Abubakar:40%
Others/Undecided:10%
The Nation [lower-alpha 7] [7] [8] Abubakar12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Bayelsa State
PartyCandidateVotes%
A Christopher Imumolen
AA Hamza al-Mustapha
ADP Yabagi Sani
APP Osita Nnadi
AAC Omoyele Sowore
ADC Dumebi Kachikwu
APC Bola Tinubu
APGA Peter Umeadi
APM Princess Chichi Ojei
BP Sunday Adenuga
LP Peter Obi
NRM Felix Johnson Osakwe
New Nigeria Peoples Party Rabiu Kwankwaso
PRP Kola Abiola
PDP Atiku Abubakar
SDP Adewole Adebayo
YPP Malik Ado-Ibrahim
ZLP Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes100.00%
Invalid or blank votesN/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial district Bola Tinubu
APC		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votes
Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Bayelsa Central Senatorial District [lower-alpha 8] 18,43821.72%34,56040.70%30,05635.40%4130.49%1,4391.69%84,906
Bayelsa East Senatorial District [lower-alpha 9] 15,13335.79%14,90535.26%10,80125.55%870.21%1,3513.20%42,277
Bayelsa West Senatorial District [lower-alpha 10] 9,00123.60%19,35350.74%9,11823.91%400.10%6301.65%38,142
Totals42,57225.75%68,81841.62%49,97530.23%5400.33%3,4202.07%165,325

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal constituency Bola Tinubu
APC		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votes
Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Brass/Nembe Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 11] 6,68933.68%8,54343.02%4,08020.54%400.20%5082.56%19,860
Ogbia Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 12] 8,44437.67%6,36228.38%6,72129.98%470.21%8433.76%22,417
Sagbama/Ekeremor Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 13] 9,00123.60%19,35350.74%9,11823.91%400.10%6301.65%38,142
Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 14] 7,65032.22%11,28047.51%4,40018.53%1900.80%2240.94%23,744
Yenagoa/Kolokuna/Opokuma Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 15] 10,78817.64%23,28038.06%25,65641.95%2230.36%1,2151.99%61,162
Totals42,57225.75%68,81841.62%49,97530.23%5400.33%3,4202.07%165,325

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area Bola Tinubu
APC		 Atiku Abubakar
PDP		 Peter Obi
LP		 Rabiu Kwankwaso
NNPP		OthersTotal valid votesTurnout (%)
Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Brass [9] 3,68429.70%6,20950.06%2,27318.32%250.20%2131.72%12,40413.86%
Ekeremor [10] 4,39824.00%9,11349.73%4,48924.49%160.09%3101.69%18,32613.71%
Kolokuma/Opokuma [11] 4,13724.63%8,97253.42%3,39520.21%340.20%2591.54%16,79726.65%
Nembe [12] 3,00540.30%2,33431.30%1,80724.24%150.20%2953.96%7,4567.81%
Ogbia [13] 8,44437.67%6,36228.38%6,72129.98%470.21%8433.76%22,41720.89%
Sagbama [14] 4,60323.23%10,24051.68%4,62923.36%240.12%3201.61%19,81617.13%
Southern Ijaw [15] 7,65032.22%11,28047.51%4,40018.53%1900.80%2240.94%23,74413.50%
Yenagoa [16] 6,65114.99%14,30832.25%22,26150.18%1890.43%9562.15%44,36521.41%
Totals42,57225.75%68,81841.62%49,97530.23%5400.33%3,4202.07%165,32516.38%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Due to disruptions on Election Day, INEC postponed voting in 141 polling units to 26 February.
  2. ↑ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  3. ↑ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  4. ↑ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  5. ↑ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
  6. ↑ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
  7. ↑ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
  8. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma, Southern Ijaw, and Yenagoa.
  9. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Brass, Ogbia, and Nembe.
  10. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
  11. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Brass and Nembe.
  12. ↑ Comprising the local government area of Ogbia.
  13. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Ekeremor and Sagbama.
  14. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Southern Ijaw.
  15. ↑ Comprising the local government areas of Kolokuma/Opokuma and Yenagoa.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bayelsa State</span> State of Nigeria

Bayelsa is a state in the South South region of Nigeria, located in the core of the Niger Delta. Bayelsa State was created in 1996 and was carved out from Rivers State, making it one of the newest states in the federation. The capital, Yenagoa, is susceptible to high risk of annual flooding. It shares a boundary with Rivers State to the east and Delta State to the north across the Niger River for 17 km and the Forçados River for 198 km, with the waters of the Atlantic Ocean dominating its southern borders. It has a total area of 10,773 square kilometres (4,159 sq mi). The state comprises eight local government areas: Ekeremor, Kolokuma/Opokuma, Yenagoa, Nembe, Ogbia, Sagbama, Brass and Southern Ijaw. The state is the smallest in Nigeria by population as of the 2006 census. Being in the Niger Delta, Bayelsa State has a riverine and estuarine setting, with bodies of water within the state preventing the development of significant road infrastructure.

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The 2023 Bayelsa State gubernatorial election took place on 11 November 2023 to elect the Governor of Bayelsa State. Incumbent PDP Governor Douye Diri won reelection. The primaries were scheduled for between 27 March and 17 April 2022.

The 2019 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Bayelsa State was held on February 23, 2019, to elect members of the House of Representatives to represent Bayelsa State, Nigeria.

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References

  1. ↑ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust . Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  2. ↑ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects . Retrieved 25 February 2023.
  3. ↑ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack . Dataphyte . Retrieved 11 February 2023.
  4. ↑ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  5. ↑ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  6. ↑ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay . 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
  7. ↑ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation . Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  8. ↑ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  9. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BRASS LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "EKEREMOR LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  11. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "BREAKDOWN OF RESULTS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FOR BAYELSA STATE: KOLOKUMA/OPUKUMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  12. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "NEMBE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  13. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "OGBIA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  14. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SAGBAMA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  15. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "SOUTHERN IJAW LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  16. ↑ Channels TV [@channelstv] (27 February 2023). "YENAGOA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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