2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election

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2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election
  2019 18 March 20232027 
Registered3,516,719
 
Nominee Dikko Umaru Radda Garba Yakubu Lado
Party APC PDP
Running mate Faruk Lawal Jobe Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua

Governor before election

Aminu Bello Masari
APC

Elected Governor

Dikko Umaru Radda
APC

The 2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election took place on 18th March, 2023, to elect the Governor of Katsina State, concurrent with the elections of the Katsina State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. [1] [2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11th March date—that was held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. [3] Incumbent APC Governor Aminu Bello Masari was termed-limited and cannot seek for re-election for a third term.

Contents

Party primaries were scheduled between 4th April and 9th June, 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Senator for Katsina South Garba Yakubu Lado on 25th May while the All Progressives Congress nominated former SMEDAN Director-General Umar Dikko Radda on 26 May. [4] [5]

Electoral system

The Governor of Katsina State was elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Katsina State is a highly populated, northwestern state mainly inhabited by two ethnic groups Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy that is faced by rising insecurity, desertification, and low education rates.

Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Bello Masari won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees. At the beginning of his term, Bello Masari said his administration would focus on security, agriculture, water resource management, and education. [6] In terms of his performance, Bello Masari was praised for increasing his government's diversity but was heavily criticized for his response to rising insecurity. [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]

Primary elections

The primary election took place between 4th April and 3rd June, 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9th June. [2] [12] According to some activists from the state's northern senatorial district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the north to produce the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Katsina governors have come from either the Central or South senatorial districts. [13] On the other hand, groups from Katsina South Senatorial District are pushing for the office to be retained by their district by claiming that Katsina Central Senatorial District produced the governor for four terms and thus Katsina South should as well. [14]

All Progressives Congress

In early April, 2022 articles suggested that the state APC zoned its nomination to the Katsina Central Senatorial District, but this claim was swiftly denied by Bello Masari media aide who said no decision on zoning had been made by the party. [15]

Pre-primary analysis centered around which candidate would receive Bello Masari's endorsement or tacit support. [14] On the primary date, the candidates contested an indirect primary at the Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina that ended with former federal agency head Umar Dikko Radda emerging as the APC nominee after results showed him narrowly defeating Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and Abbas Umar Masanawa with about 29% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Dikko Radda praised the primary organizers and called for unity with his former opponents. [5] [16] Inuwa initially publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda; [17] however, he later decried the results amid mass defections of his supporters to the NNPP. [18] Post-primary analysis noted the potential bribery of delegates during the primary along with the internal party crisis as Inuwa and others kicked while Dikko Radda had threatened to remove officeholders that did not support him. [19] Dikko Radda initially picked Yusuf Aliyu Musawa as his running mate but Aliyu Musawa withdrew and was replaced by Faruk Lawal Jobe in mid-August. [20] In October, Inuwa defected to the PDP. [21]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

   Umar Dikko Radda (28.32%)
   Abbas Umar Masanawa (24.40%)
   Ahmed Musa Dangiwa (12.31%)
  Other candidates (10.25%)
APC primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
APC Umar Dikko Radda 506 28.32%
APC Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa 44224.73%
APC Abbas Umar Masanawa 43624.40%
APC Ahmed Musa Dangiwa 22012.31%
APC Faruk Lawal Jobe 713.97%
APC Mannir Yakubu 653.64%
APC Abubakar Sadiq Yar'adua 321.80%
APC Umar Abdullahi Tsauri 80.45%
APC Abdulkarim Dauda 70.39%
Total votes1,787 100.00%
Turnout 1,805100.00%

People's Democratic Party

On the primary date, the four candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Garba Yakubu Lado—former Senator and the party's 2019 nominee—winning the nomination after results showed him defeating runner-up Salisu Yusuf Majigiri by a 44% margin. In his acceptance speech, Lado praised the primary organizers and thanked the delegates while Yusuf Majigiri publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda. [4]

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Muttaqha Rabe Darma: former Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (defected prior to the primary to the APC)

Declined

Results

Candidates' vote share

   Garba Yakubu Lado (67.64%)
   Salisu Yusuf Majigiri (23.49%)
  Other candidates (8.86%)
PDP primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
PDP Garba Yakubu Lado 740 67.64%
PDP Salisu Yusuf Majigiri 25723.49%
PDP Ahmed Aminu Yar’Adua 534.84%
PDP Shehu Inuwa Imam 444.02%
Total votes1,094 100.00%
Invalid or blank votes4N/A
Turnout 1,098Unknown

Minor parties

Campaign

Post-primary analysis focused on the respective strengths of Radda and Lado but also noted the divides within the state APC that Radda had to contend with. [40] As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the strength of the APC's incumbency, APC members aggrieved by contentious party primaries, and Lado's southern origin along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Muhammad Nura Khalil (NNPP), Imrana Jino (PRP), and Ibrahim Zakkari (SDP). [41] [42] [43] One of these factors—fallout from the APC primary, dominated much of the pre-campaign period as politicians like Khalil and Lado met with APC primary runner-up Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and attempted to woo him into their parties; in response, the APC sent its vice presidential nominee Kashim Shettima and others to convince Inuwa to support Radda. [44] [45] However, the Shettima visit failed to prevent Inuwa's defection as he joined the PDP in mid-October with APC sources noting that the defection was likely to hurt the party in the general election. [46] [47] On the other hand, Lado also faced internal issues as a split emerged in the state PDP in early November as his camp attempted to remove state party chair Yusuf Salisu Majigiri, who's backed by former Governor Ibrahim Shema. Lado and his allies accused Salisu Majigiri of supporting the APC and journalists noted rumors that Salisu Majigiri planned to suspend Lado from the party. [48] Although Lado was suspended, Salisu Majigiri claimed that he had already stepped down as party chairman due to his candidacy for the House of Representatives; in an attempt to avoid further rifts, acting party chairman Salisu Lawal Uli ended Lado's suspension but it was too late as Lado's faction claimed Magaji Lawal was the rightful party chairman. [49] [50] [51] To worsen the situation for the PDP, Shema reportedly met with Radda in a move that fueled rumors that his bloc may tacitly support the APC nominee. [52]

The PDP party crisis continued into the new year, as analysts labeled the scandals as actively hurtful to Lado's campaign by January 2023. [53] In a Daily Trust article from mid-January, the crisis was labeled as the Lado's biggest issue while the largest problem of the Dikko Radda campaign was the unpopularity of incumbent APC administrations. [54] The month also hosted two debates, the first one conducted by Media Trust Group on 14 January and attended by Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, Lado, and Zakari; [55] while the second debate was organized by BBC Hausa on 22 January and only Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, and Lado were invited to participate. Held at the Local Government Service Commission in the city of Katsina, the BBC debate reviewed topics ranging from education to security. [56] After the debates, the APC continued its attempts to woo Shema into the party, with the state government even withdrawing its corruption case against Shema in a move criticized as politically motivated. [57]

The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Katsina State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 46.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 45.6% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.6%. The result—considered a surprise as Katsina is Buhari's hame state, led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race. Campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election from Vanguard noted that the APC had retained most downballot offices and appeared to be in a strong position. [58] On the other hand, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Lado to win due to the presidential election results and Masari's unpopularity. [59]

Election debates

2022 Katsina State gubernatorial election debates
DateOrganisers   P Present [lower-alpha 1]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 2]  
 NI Not invited  A Absent invitee 
APC NNPP PRP PDP SDP Other partiesRef.
14 January Media Trust Group P
Dikko Radda
P
Khalil
P
Jino
P
Lado
P
Zakari
NI
Multiple
[55]
22 January BBC Hausa P
Dikko Radda
P
Khalil
P
Jino
P
Lado
NINI
Multiple
[56]

Projections

SourceProjectionAs of
Africa Elects [lower-alpha 3] [60] Lean Lado17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence [lower-alpha 4] [59]
Lado2 March 2023

Conduct

Electoral timetable

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election. [61] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries. [62]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022 [lower-alpha 5] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023 [lower-alpha 6] – Final day of the official campaign period

Pre-election

Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily insecure areas. [65]

General election

Results

2023 Katsina State gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%
A Muhammad Bara'u Tanimu
AA Garba Sani Dankani
ADP Murtala Ahmed
ADC Ibrahim Trader Aminu
APC Dikko Umar Radda
BP Kabir Kado
LP Ibrahim Abu-Musawa
New Nigeria Peoples Party Muhammad Nura Khalil
NRM Ishaka Abdullahi
PDP Garba Yakubu Lado
PRP Imran Jaafaru Jino
SDP Ibrahim Babangida Zakari
ZLP Ibrahim Tukur Saude Ingawa
Total votes100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Umar Dikko Radda
APC
Garba Yakubu Lado
PDP
OthersTotal Valid Votes
VotesPercentageVotesPercentageVotesPercentage
Katsina Central Senatorial District [lower-alpha 7]
(Katsina Zone)
TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Katsina North Senatorial District [lower-alpha 8]
(Daura Zone)
TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Katsina South Senatorial District [lower-alpha 9]
(Funtua Zone)
TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Umar Dikko Radda
APC
Garba Yakubu Lado
PDP
OthersTotal Valid Votes
VotesPercentageVotesPercentageVotesPercentage
Bakori/Danja Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 10] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Batagarawa/Charanchi/Rimi Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 11] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Batsari/Safana/Danmusa Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 12] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Bindawa/Mani Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 13] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Daura/Sandamu/Mai'Adua Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 14] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Dutsin-Ma/Kurfi Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 15] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Faskari/Kankara/Sabuwa Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 16] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Funtua/Dandume Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 17] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Jibia/Kaita Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 18] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Katsina Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 19] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Ingawa/Kankia/Kusada Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 20] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Malumfashi/Kafur Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 21] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Mashi/Dutsi Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 22] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Matazu/Musawa Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 23] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Zango/Baure Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 24] TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Umar Dikko Radda
APC
Garba Yakubu Lado
PDP
OthersTotal Valid VotesTurnout Percentage
VotesPercentageVotesPercentageVotesPercentage
Bakori TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Batagarawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Batsari TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Baure TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Bindawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Charanchi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dan Musa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dandume TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Danja TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Daura TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dutsi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Dutsin-Ma TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Faskari TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Funtua TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Ingawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Jibia TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kafur TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kaita TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kankara TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kankia TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Katsina TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kurfi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Kusada TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mai'Adua TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Malumfashi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mani TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Mashi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Matazu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Musawa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Rimi TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Sabuwa TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Safana TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Sandamu TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Tsagem TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Zango TBD  % TBD  % TBD  % TBD  %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %

See also

Notes

  1. Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee attending the event.
  2. Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  3. AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  4. EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  5. The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties. [63]
  6. The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March. [64]
  7. Comprising the local government areas of Batagarawa, Batsari, Charanchi, Dan Musa, Dutsin-Ma, Jibia, Kaita, Katsina, Kurfi, Rimi, and Safana.
  8. Comprising the local government areas of Baure, Bindawa, Daura, Dutsi, Ingawa, Kankia, Kusada, Mai'Adua, Mani, Mashi, Sandamu, and Zango.
  9. Comprising the local government areas of Bakori, Dandume, Danja, Faskari, Funtua, Kafur, Kankara, Malumfashi, Matazu, Musawa, and Sabuwa.
  10. Comprising the local government areas of Bakori and Danja.
  11. Comprising the local government areas of Batagarawa, Charanchi, and Rimi.
  12. Comprising the local government areas of Batsari, Dan Musa, and Safana.
  13. Comprising the local government areas of Bindawa and Mani.
  14. Comprising the local government areas of Daura, Mai'Adua, and Sandamu.
  15. Comprising the local government areas of Dutsin-Ma and Kurfi.
  16. Comprising the local government areas of Faskari, Kankara, and Sabuwa.
  17. Comprising the local government areas of Dandume and Funtua.
  18. Comprising the local government areas of Jibia and Kaita.
  19. Comprising the local government area of Katsina.
  20. Comprising the local government areas of Ingawa, Kankia, and Kusada.
  21. Comprising the local government areas of Kafur and Malumfashi.
  22. Comprising the local government areas of Dutsi and Mashi.
  23. Comprising the local government areas of Matazu and Musawa.
  24. Comprising the local government areas of Baure and Zango.

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References

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