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The 2023 Kaduna State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kaduna State, concurrent with elections to the Kaduna State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. [1] [2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. [3] Incumbent APC Governor Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.
Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former House of Representatives member Isa Ashiru on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated Uba Sani—Senator for Kaduna Central—on 26 May. [4] [5] In August, Jonathan Asake—a former House of Representatives member and former Southern Kaduna Peoples Union President—won the nomination of the Labour Party in a rerun primary. [6]
The Governor of Kaduna State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Kaduna State is a large, diverse northwestern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, inter-ethnic violence, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state. [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a slight solidification of the Kaduna APC's control as el-Rufai won re-election with over 55% of the vote and the party retained its House of Assembly majority. Federally, the APC regained two of the three Senate seats it lost due to defections and won eleven of the sixteen House of Representatives seats. For the presidency, Kaduna was won by APC nominee Muhammadu Buhari with about 60% but swung slightly towards the PDP. The 2019 elections also showed the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the PDP while the latter two regions stuck with the APC.
Ahead of el-Rufai's second term, his administration stated focuses included government reform, forging a positive business environment, unity, education, and urban development. [12] In terms of his performance, el-Rufai was praised for proper budgeting, expanding free education, a proactive response to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, urban infrastructure development, and raising pensions. [13] [14] [15] [16] However, he faced criticism for alleged anti-Christian sentiment in the state government, rising insecurity and el-Rufai's irresponsible statements on it, and labour disputes along with authoritarian-esque actions including the arrest of journalists and the infiltration of Amnesty International Nigeria. [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June. [2] [26] According to some candidates and community groups, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kaduna South Senatorial District to have the next governor as the only governor from the south did not finish his term. However, no major party zoned their nomination. Another informal convention mandated different religion tickets with one running mate being Christian while the other was Muslim; however, el-Rufai discarded this tradition in 2019 and neither party committed to a return to the tradition.
By early 2022, reports emerged that el-Rufai was looking to endorse a member of his core inner circle to succeed him with names like former commissioner Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, Senator Uba Sani, and Deputy Governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe being floated as the major potential candidates. [27] In early 2022, reports came out that the el-Rufai's endorsement process had culminated in Sani emerging as his pick while Abdullahi was to run to replace Sani in the Senate and Balarabe would become Sani's running mate. [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] While both Abdullahi and Balarabe accepted the process and dropped their gubernatorial ambitions, other candidates like former House of Representatives member Sani Sha'aban objected to the endorsement process and labeled it as undemocratic and illegitimate. [34] [35] [36] [37]
In the days before the primary, disputes emerged over the delegate list as Sani's opponents—Bashir Abubakar and Sha'aban—accused el-Rufai of imposing delegates without proper congresses and called for national party intervention. [44] [45] However, the congress appeals committee upheld the delegate elections and labeled the exercise as "successful." [46] Pre-primary analysis stated that although Sha'aban expected support from politicians close to his in-law President Muhammadu Buhari, it was "safe to project" Sani would win. [47] On primary day, the three candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Sani's wide victory after results showed him over 96% of the delegates' votes. [5] After the votes were collated, Sani thanked delegates, el-Rufai, and his opponents in his acceptance speech but both Abubakar and Sha'aban wholeheartedly rejected the results. [5] [48] [49] The weeks after the primary were dominated by the search for Sani's running mate; the first part of el Rufai's plan went well with Abdullahi winning the senatorial primary but opposition emerged to Balarabe continuing as the deputy gubernatorial nominee. Previous informal convention was against same religion tickets and the pick of Balarabe would be the second consecutive APC ticket in violation of the convention as both Sani and Balarabe are Muslim; Christian groups lobbied against another Muslim-Muslim ticket and noted that such a ticket would be untimely amid a rise in religious tension and violence. [50] Despite the outcry, Sani picked Balarabe as his running mate on 4 July. [51] [52] In response, observers expressed worry over religious equality and tensions if the APC ticket won while some groups called for asked voters to reject Sani. [53] [54] Meanwhile, Sha'aban filed a lawsuit against Sani's nomination based on allegedly improper primary conduct; however, the case was dismissed by a Federal High Court in November 2022 and the Supreme Court in February 2023. [55] [56]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
APC | Uba Sani | 1,149 | 96.07% | |
APC | Bashir Abubakar | 37 | 3.09% | |
APC | Sani Sha'aban | 10 | 0.84% | |
Total votes | 1,196 | 100.00% | ||
Invalid or blank votes | 39 | N/A | ||
Turnout | 1,235 | 99.20% | ||
Pre-primary analysis labeled Isa Ashiru—a former MHR and the party's 2019 nominee—as the frontrunner but noted his opponents had a chance for an upset. [47] On the primary date, one major candidate (former Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed) withdrew while the other six candidates continued to an indirect primary that ended in Isa Ashiru emerging as the SDP nominee after results showed Ashiru winning over 56% of the delegates' votes. [4] However, controversy rose after the primary when it was alleged that Ashiru had colluded with Kaduna PDP Chairman Felix Hyat to manipulate the delegate list in Ashiru's favour in exchange for Hyat becoming Ashiru's running mate. [73] Despite this alleged plan, Ashiru announced former commissioner John Ayuba as his running mate in June; noting the regional balance as Ayuba is from Kaduna South while Ashiru is from Kaduna North. [74] In July, Baba-Ahmed defected to the LP to become its vice-presidential nominee. [75]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
PDP | Isa Ashiru | 414 | 56.71% | |
PDP | Muhammad Sani Sidi | 260 | 35.62% | |
PDP | Mukhtar Ramalan Yero | 28 | 3.84% | |
PDP | Mohammed Sani Abbas | 15 | 2.05% | |
PDP | Haruna Yunusa Saeed | 11 | 1.51% | |
PDP | Shehu Sani | 2 | 0.27% | |
Total votes | 730 | 100.00% | ||
Invalid or blank votes | 30 | N/A | ||
Turnout | 760 | Unknown | ||
As the general election campaign began in June 2022, pundits focused on the major candidates' search for running mates. Due to geopolitical dynamics and the state's religious diversity, informal convention states that a nominee from Kaduna Central or North districts should pick a running mate from Southern Kaduna and vice versa along with balancing the ticket religiously by picking a ticket with one Muslim and one Christian. As both the PDP and the APC nominated Muslims from the Central and North districts, they were expected to select a southern Christian running mate. While Ashiru followed the convention by picking John Ayuba—a Christian from Zangon Kataf LGA, the APC again violated the religious part of the convention by renominating incumbent Deputy Governor Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe—a Muslim from Sanga LGA. As the national APC also violated the anti-same religion ticket convention by nominating the Bola Tinubu-Kashim Shettima slate and el-Rufai faced constant criticism of his handling of inter-religious tensions, analysts noted the likely significance of religious identity in the Kaduna election. However, Ayuba's selection was not without controversy either as youth groups lamented his age of 68. [87]
As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the el-Rufai administration's urban renewal projects, APC members aggrieved by the contentious party primary, Sani's senate performance, expected PDP dominance in Southern Kaduna, and PDP internal disputes along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Jonathan Asake (LP), Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi (NNPP), and Hayatuddeen Lawal Makarfi (PRP). [88] [89] Further analysis by November surmised that the two strongest minor party nominees—Asake and Othman Hunkuyi—could split the formerly PDP base, potentially allowing Sani to win with a plurality. [90]
With the election nearing, BBC Hausa organized a debate on 18 January 2023 and invited Sani, Asake, Othman Hunkuyi, and Ashiru to participate. [lower-alpha 1] While Asake did not attend, the other three had a heated debate on topics ranging from agriculture to security. [91] In February, focus mainly switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kaduna State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 40.8% of the vote to defeat Bola Tinubu (APC) at 29.4%, Peter Obi (LP) at 21.7%, and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.8%. Considered a slight surprise, the result led to increased focus on the gubernatorial race due to the significant margin of victory for Abubakar and PDP success in the state's National Assembly elections. Gubernatorial campaign analysis from after the presidential election noted shock from APC figures that pushed the party to call on Islamic clerics to market voting for its Muslim-Muslim ticket as a "religious obligation" while other pundits emphasized that Asake's path to victory came from sweeping Christian voters if the Muslim voters split between Sani and Ashiru. At the same time, other observers like Jaafar Jaafar doubted Asake's chances of victory and reiterated that Asake's strength among formerly PDP supporting southern communities could allow Sani to win by splitting the old PDP base. [92] [93] [94] [95]
Date | Organisers | P Present [lower-alpha 2] S Surrogate [lower-alpha 3] NI Not invited A Absent invitee W Invitation withdrawn | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADP | APC | LP | NNPP | PDP | Other parties | Ref. | ||
18 January | BBC Hausa | W [lower-alpha 1] Sha'aban | P Sani | A Asake | P Othman Hunkuyi | P Ashiru | NI Multiple | [91] |
Source | Projection | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
Africa Elects [lower-alpha 4] [97] | Lean Ashiru | 17 March 2023 | |
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence [lower-alpha 5] [98] | Ashiru | 2 March 2023 | |
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election. [99] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries. [100]
Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily-insecure areas. [103]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
AA | Timothy Sherman Adamu | |||
ADP | Yusuf Jibril | |||
APP | Yahaya Musa Kallah | |||
ADC | Caleb Zagi | |||
APM | Yahaya Alhassan | |||
APC | Uba Sani | |||
APGA | Andrew Abui Duya | |||
LP | Jonathan Asake | |||
New Nigeria Peoples Party | Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi | |||
NRM | Salihu Abubakar Gambo | |||
PDP | Isa Ashiru | |||
PRP | Hayatuddeen Lawal | |||
SDP | Adamu Abubakar Idris | |||
YPP | Yaya Sanin Yaya | |||
Total votes | 100.00% | |||
Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
Turnout | ||||
The results of the election by senatorial district.
Senatorial District | Uba Sani APC | Jonathan Asake LP | Isa Ashiru PDP | Others | Total Valid Votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | ||
Kaduna Central Senatorial District [lower-alpha 8] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kaduna North Senatorial District [lower-alpha 9] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kaduna South Senatorial District [lower-alpha 10] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
The results of the election by federal constituency.
Federal Constituency | Uba Sani APC | Jonathan Asake LP | Isa Ashiru PDP | Others | Total Valid Votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | ||
Birnin Gwari/Giwa Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 11] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 12] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Igabi Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 13] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Ikara/Kubau Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 14] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Jema'a/Sanga Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 15] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kachia/Kagarko Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 16] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kaduna North Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 17] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kaduna South Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 18] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kaura Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 19] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Kauru Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 20] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Lere Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 21] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Makarfi/Kudan Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 22] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Sabon Gari Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 23] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Soba Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 24] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Zangon Kataf/Jaba Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 25] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Zaria Federal Constituency [lower-alpha 26] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
The results of the election by local government area.
LGA | Uba Sani APC | Jonathan Asake LP | Isa Ashiru PDP | Others | Total Valid Votes | Turnout Percentage | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | Votes | Percentage | |||
Birnin Gwari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Chikun | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Giwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Igabi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Jaba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Jema'a | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kachia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kaduna North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kaduna South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kagarko | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kajuru | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kaura | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kauru | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kubau | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Kudan | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Lere | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Makarfi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Sabon Gari | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Sanga | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Soba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Zangon Kataf | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Zaria | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
Uba Sani is a Nigerian engineer and politician who is the current governor of Kaduna State since 2023. He previously served as the Senator representing Kaduna Central senatorial district from 2019 to 2023.
Hadiza Sabuwa Balarabe is a Nigerian politician and medical doctor who has served as deputy governor of Kaduna State since 2019. She is the first female deputy governor of the state and was elected during the 2019 Nigerian gubernatorial elections held in March, under the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress and re-elected in 2023.
The 2015 Kaduna State gubernatorial election occurred on April 11, 2015. Nasir el-Rufai of the APC took a clear lead against the incumbent governor and PDP, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero candidate in the election. The APC candidate won in 17 LGAs, while the PDP claimed the other six.
The 2019 Kaduna State gubernatorial election occurred on March 9, 2019. APC candidate Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai defeated main opposition party PDP's candidate, Isah Ashiru, to emerge winner of the contest. APC was said to have won 14 LGAs, PDP nine.
The 2019 Plateau State gubernatorial election in Nigeria occurred on March 9, 2019. Incumbent APC Governor Simon Lalong won re-election for a second term, defeating PDP Jerry Useni and several minor party candidates.
The 2019 Kano State gubernatorial election occurred on March 9, 2019. APC candidate Abdullahi Umar Ganduje won re-election for a second term, defeating PDP Abba Kabir Yusuf and other 53 candidates.
The 2021 Anambra State gubernatorial election took place on 6 November 2021, to elect the Governor of Anambra State. Incumbent APGA Governor Willie Obiano was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. APGA nominee, former Central Bank Governor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, retained the office for APGA with a 24% win over PDP nominee, former Transcorp CEO Valentine Ozigbo.
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The 2023 Sokoto State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Sokoto State, concurrent with elections to the Sokoto State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly. The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent PDP Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.
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Isa Ashiru Kudan is a Nigerian politician from Kudan, Nigeria. He is a business man and holds the traditional title of Sarkin Bai of Zazzau Emirate. He is the governorship candidate of Peoples Democratic Party for 2023 in Kaduna State, Nigeria. He was previously the House of Representatives of Nigeria representing Kudan/Makarfi Federal Constituency from 2007 to 2015, and Member representing Kudan Constituency at Kaduna State House of Assembly.
The 2023 Nigerian Senate elections in Kaduna State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 federal Senators from Kaduna State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. The elections will coincide with the 2023 presidential election, as well as other elections to the Senate and elections to the House of Representatives; with state elections being held two weeks later. Primaries were held between 4 April and 9 June 2022.
Nasir el-Rufai, returns to the top 5 ranking for the month of January, after enjoying good mention in year 2019. We acknowledge his commitment to improving the education sector in the Northwest state, especially the recent declaration of free education for public primary and secondary schools in the state.
Governor Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna State also took proactive steps after the first case of the COVID-19 disease surfaced in the country.
As the Chief Security Officer of the state, Governor El-Rufai has disappointingly continued to speak in ways and manners unexpected of him. We note with concern, statements credited to the governor concerning the alleged culpability of leaders of Southern Kaduna to the effect that they are only interested in collecting brown envelopes and when they don't get it, orchestrate the killing of their people. We reckon that the statement, if truly was made by El-Rufai, was most irresponsible and insensitive of a leader who is desirous of a lasting solution to the carnage, and the killing field the Southern part of the state is fast becoming.
We are appalled by the lack of tact and human feelings in Governor el-Rufai's handling of the cases of mass abduction of students in the state...We also note the recent faceoff between Governor Nasir el-Rufai and the leadership of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), his mass sack of all nurses under grade level 14 in the services of the state government and threats to sack lecturers at the state university for daring to join the strike ordered by the NLC to protest the mass sack of workers in the state. With the episode of last week, we are afraid that el-Rufai has either slided ingloriously into dictatorship or he is simply showing his true colours as a man who cannot stand opposition.