Birthday effect

Last updated

The birthday effect (sometimes called the birthday blues, especially when referring specifically to suicide) is a statistical phenomenon where an individual's likelihood of death appears to increase on or close to their birthday. The birthday effect has been seen in studies of general populations in England and Wales, [1] Switzerland, [2] [3] Ukraine, [4] and the United States, [5] [6] as well as in smaller populations such as Major League Baseball players. [7] Studies do not consistently show this effect; some studies find that men's and women's mortality rates diverge in the run-up to the birthday, [5] while others find no significant gender effect. [8] [9] Suggested mechanisms for the effect include alcohol consumption, psychological stress relating to the birthday, increased suicide risk, terminally ill patients attempting to hold on until their birthday, an increased mortality salience, or a physiological cycle that causes the body to weaken annually. It has also been suggested that it may be a statistical artifact, perhaps as a result of anomalies in reporting, but the birthday effect has also been seen in studies that control for known reporting anomalies. [5] [7]

Contents

Studies

Gabby Hartnett is one of the statistically unusual number of MLB players to have died on his birthday. GabbyHartnettGoudeycard.jpg
Gabby Hartnett is one of the statistically unusual number of MLB players to have died on his birthday.

With the introduction of statistical software that can process large datasets easily, a number of state- or country-wide studies have been carried out to investigate whether birthdays have any effect on mortality. The first large-scale study used the records of 2,745,149 Californians who died between 1969 and 1990. After correcting for confounding factors such as seasonality in deaths, elective surgery, and people born on February 29, there was a significant increase in deaths in the week before the individual's birthday for men, and in the week after the birthday for women – in both cases, mortality did not peak on the birthday, but close to it. This effect was consistent across age and race cohorts. [5]

A similar study among 12,275,033 Swiss found the highest mortality on the actual birthday (17% greater than the expected value), and the effect was largest for those over 80; [2] another study on Swiss data found a 13.8% excess and was able to link this to specific causes: heart attack and stroke (predominant in women) and suicides and accidents (predominant in men), as well as an increase in cancer deaths. [3] Among 25 million Americans who died between 1998 and 2011, 6.7% more people than expected die on their birthday, and the effect was most pronounced at weekends and among the young – among 20 to 29 year olds, the excess was over 25%. [6] An even greater excess was found in the population of Kyiv, where between 1990 and 2000 there were 44.4% more deaths than expected among men on their birthdays and 36.2% more than expected among women. [4] Smaller biographical studies have also shown a birthday effect within subpopulations, such as among Major League Baseball (MLB) players [7] and people with entries in the Encyclopedia of American History. [5]

Focusing on suicide deaths alone, large studies have found evidence for a peak in suicides on or just after a birthday in Denmark [10] and Hungary, [11] but not in Bavaria [12] or Taiwan. [12]

However, other studies have not found such a correlation. A study using the populations of Denmark and Austria (a total of 2,052,680 deaths over the time period) found that although people's life span tended to correlate with their month of birth, there was no consistent birthday effect, and people born in autumn or winter were more likely to die in the months further from their birthday. [8] A study of all cancer deaths in Germany from 1995 to 2009 found no evidence of a birthday effect, although it did find a related Christmas effect. [9] A small study by Leonard Zusne found birthday effects among both male and female cohorts, where women were more likely to die immediately before a birthday and men more likely to die immediately after, but that when averaged together there was no birthday effect among the population as a whole. [13] The same was found for a study of mortality data in England and Wales, where there was a statistically significant birthday effect among each subgroup (men and women; never married, married, divorced and widowed) but it was not seen in the population as a whole. [1]

A study found that the risk of suicide may be greater for males on their birthday. [14]

Possible explanations

Alcohol

Birthday celebrations are often associated with large increases in alcohol consumption. Binge drinking can increase an individual's risk of death through alcohol intoxication, accidents and drunk driving, as well as by exacerbating existing conditions and increasing suicide risk. [4] [11] In the US where the legal minimum drinking age is 21, there is a very large mortality rate excess on the 21st birthday and the day immediately following, almost entirely attributable to an increase in accidents. [15] [16]

Psychosomatic and psychological

Two mutually contradictory explanations have been put forward that rely on psychosomatic effects. On the one hand, a birthday provides a fixed date to focus on, allowing the terminally ill to hold on until the day itself. On the other hand, a birthday also reminds the individual of mortality and offers an occasion to look back on life. [5] [17] According to the terror management theory, this causes stress which can accelerate death. The uneven mortality rate distribution between men and women, and between more and less successful baseball players, suggests that both may play a role in the birthday effect: people who have focused on the public sphere of life (for example, career-driven people or professional athletes) might be reminded that their glory days have passed, while those who lived more in the private sphere (such as stay-at-home parents and amateur sports players) are more aware of what they will lose in death and try to hold on. [5] [7] [17] Related is the "broken promise effect", whereby a person suffering suicidal ideation will wait until a birthday or other significant event to see whether their circumstances will improve. [11]

The psychosomatic/psychological model would also explain the similar increase in cancer deaths around holidays such as Christmas, [9] and is supported by the fact that such phenomena appear to be dependent on culture – there is a Passover effect among the Jewish community (which moves with the festival), and a Mid-Autumn Festival effect among the Chinese. [5] [17]

Physiological

It has been suggested that, like the 24-hour circadian rhythm, the body also has a yearly "circannual" biological rhythm. Vaiserman et al. have suggested that the climatic conditions at birth act as a zeitgeber that triggers internal stress and increases the chance of death. [4]

Statistical

It is possible when processing death certificates to confuse the date of birth and date of death fields, which would increase the apparent number of certificates in which these coincide. [5] Additionally, where the exact date is not known, the 1st and 15th of the month are often used as placeholders. [18] These will cause an excess of births and deaths recorded on these dates. However studies also find changes in the mortality rate in the days immediately before and after, which are unlikely to be caused by data processing anomalies, suggesting that statistical artifacts alone cannot explain the birthday effect. [5]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alcoholism</span> Problematic excessive alcohol consumption

Alcoholism is, broadly, any drinking of alcohol that results in significant mental or physical health problems. Because there is disagreement on the definition of the word alcoholism, it is not a recognized diagnostic entity, and the use of alcoholism terminology is discouraged due to its heavily stigmatized connotations. Predominant diagnostic classifications are alcohol use disorder (DSM-5) or alcohol dependence (ICD-11); these are defined in their respective sources.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Life expectancy</span> Measure of average lifespan in a given population

Life expectancy is a statistical measure of the estimate of the span of a life. The most commonly used measure is life expectancy at birth (LEB), which can be defined in two ways. Cohort LEB is the mean length of life of a birth cohort and can be computed only for cohorts born so long ago that all their members have died. Period LEB is the mean length of life of a hypothetical cohort assumed to be exposed, from birth through death, to the mortality rates observed at a given year. National LEB figures reported by national agencies and international organizations for human populations are estimates of period LEB.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Infant mortality</span> Death of children under the age of 1

Infant mortality is the death of an infant before the infant's first birthday. The occurrence of infant mortality in a population can be described by the infant mortality rate (IMR), which is the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per 1,000 live births. Similarly, the child mortality rate, also known as the under-five mortality rate, compares the death rate of children up to the age of five.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">French paradox</span> Observation that amount heart diseases French people have is much less than is expected

The French paradox is an apparently paradoxical epidemiological observation that French people have a relatively low incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), while having a diet relatively rich in saturated fats, in apparent contradiction to the widely held belief that the high consumption of such fats is a risk factor for CHD. The paradox is that if the thesis linking saturated fats to CHD is valid, the French ought to have a higher rate of CHD than comparable countries where the per capita consumption of such fats is lower.

The long-term heavy consumption of alcohol can cause severe detrimental effects. Health effects associated with alcohol intake in large amounts include an increased risk of developing an alcohol use disorder, malnutrition, chronic pancreatitis, erectile dysfunction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, gastritis, stomach ulcers, alcoholic liver disease, certain types of dementia, and several types of cancer. In addition, damage to the central nervous system and peripheral nervous system can occur from chronic heavy alcohol consumption. There is also an increased risk for accidental injuries, for example, those sustained in traffic accidents and falls. Studies show that individuals with heavy substance use have a much higher risk of having other disorders. A cross-sectional observational study found evidence that people who used substances had the highest risk for five of the disorders studied. However, even light and moderate alcohol consumption increase the risk for developing certain types of cancer. Among women, light drinkers have a four percent increase risk of breast cancer, while moderate drinkers have a 23 percent increase in risk of the disease.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alcohol and cardiovascular disease</span> Effects of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular health

Excessive alcohol intake is associated with an elevated risk of alcoholic liver disease (ALD), heart failure, some cancers, and accidental injury, and is a leading cause of preventable death in industrialized countries. Some studies have suggested that one drink per day may have cardiovascular benefits. However, these studies are controversial, and the common view is that no level of alcohol consumption improves health. There is far more evidence for the harmful effects of alcohol than for any beneficial effects. It is also recognized that the alcohol industry may promote the unsubstantiated benefits of moderate drinking.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alcohol and cancer</span> Relationship between cancer and the consumption of alcohol

Alcohol causes cancers of the oesophagus, liver, breast, colon, oral cavity, rectum, pharynx, and larynx, and probably causes cancers of the pancreas. Consumption of alcohol in any quantity can cause cancer. The more alcohol is consumed, the higher the cancer risk, and no amount can be considered safe. Alcoholic beverages were classified as a Group 1 carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 1988.

Alcohol has a number of effects on health. Short-term effects of alcohol consumption include intoxication and dehydration. Long-term effects of alcohol include changes in the metabolism of the liver and brain, several types of cancer and alcohol use disorder. Alcohol intoxication affects the brain, causing slurred speech, clumsiness, and delayed reflexes. Alcohol consumption can cause hypoglycemia in diabetics on certain medications, such as insulin or sulfonylurea, by blocking gluconeogenesis. There is an increased risk of developing an alcohol use disorder for teenagers while their brain is still developing. Adolescents who drink have a higher probability of injury including death.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Men's health</span>

Men's health is a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being, as experienced by men, and not merely the absence of disease. Differences in men's health compared to women's can be attributed to biological factors, behavioural factors, and social factors.

Health in the United Kingdom refers to the overall health of the population of the United Kingdom. This includes overall trends such as life expectancy and mortality rates, mental health of the population and the suicide rate, smoking rates, alcohol consumption, prevalence of diseases within the population and obesity in the United Kingdom. Three of these, smoking rates, alcohol consumption and obesity are above the OECD average.

The impact of alcohol on aging is multifaceted. Evidence shows that alcoholism or chronic alcohol consumption can cause both accelerated (or premature) aging – in which symptoms of aging appear earlier than normal – and exaggerated aging, in which the symptoms appear at the appropriate time but in a more exaggerated form. The effects of alcohol use disorder on the aging process include hypertension, cardiac dysrhythmia, cancers, gastrointestinal disorders, neurocognitive deficits, bone loss, and emotional disturbances especially depression. On the other hand, research also shows that drinking moderate amounts of alcohol may protect healthy adults from developing coronary heart disease. The American Heart Association cautions people not to start drinking, if you are not already drinking.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human sex ratio</span> Ratio of males to females in a population

The human sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a population in the context of anthropology and demography. In humans, the natural sex ratio at birth is slightly biased towards the male sex. It is estimated to be about 1.05 or 1.06 or within a narrow range from 1.03 to 1.06 males per female. The gender probability for a baby in pregnancy is 50:50.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Binge drinking</span> Form of excessive alcohol intake

Binge drinking, or heavy episodic drinking, is drinking alcoholic beverages with an intention of becoming intoxicated by heavy consumption of alcohol over a short period of time, but definitions vary considerably.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Influence of seasonal birth in humans</span>

Seasonal variation in human birth rate has been found to be a nearly universal phenomenon. Also, birth seasonality has been found to be correlated with certain physiological and psychological traits of humans and animals. Evidence for seasonality in humans is limited.

The relationship between alcohol and breast cancer is clear: drinking alcoholic beverages, including wine, beer, or liquor, is a risk factor for breast cancer, as well as some other forms of cancer. Drinking alcohol causes more than 100,000 cases of breast cancer worldwide every year. Globally, almost one in 10 cases of breast cancer is caused by women drinking alcoholic beverages. Drinking alcoholic beverages is among the most common modifiable risk factors.

Health in Russia deteriorated rapidly following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and particularly for men, as a result of social and economic changes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glasgow effect</span> Phenomenon of lower life expectancy and poor health in Glasgow, Scotland

The Glasgow effect refers to the lower life expectancy of residents of Glasgow compared to the rest of the United Kingdom and Europe. The phenomenon is defined as an "[e]xcess mortality in the West of Scotland (Glasgow) after controlling for deprivation." Although lower income levels are generally associated with poor health and a shorter lifespan, epidemiologists have argued that poverty alone does not appear to account for the disparity found in Glasgow. Equally deprived areas of the UK such as Liverpool and Manchester have higher life expectancies, and the wealthiest ten percent of the Glasgow population have a lower life expectancy than the same group in other cities. One in four men in Glasgow will die before his sixty-fifth birthday.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Indigenous health in Australia</span> Medical condition

Indigenous health in Australia examines health and wellbeing indicators of Indigenous Australians compared with the rest of the population. Statistics indicate that Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders are much less healthy than other Australians. Various government strategies have been put into place to try to remediate the problem; there has been some improvement in several areas, but statistics between Indigenous Australians and the rest of the Australian population still show unacceptable levels of difference.

The Widowhood effect is the increase in the probability of a person dying in a relatively short period after a long-time spouse has died and has also been called "dying of a broken heart". Being widowed increases the likelihood of developing severe mental disorders along with psychological and other physical illnesses.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alcohol and pregnancy</span> Medical condition

Alcohol use in pregnancy includes use of alcohol at any time during gestation, including the time before a mother-to-be is aware that she is pregnant. Alcohol use at some point during pregnancy is common and appears to be rising in prevalence in the United States.

References

  1. 1 2 Anderson, M (1975). "Relationship between month of birth and month of death in the elderly". British Journal of Preventive & Social Medicine. 29 (3): 151–156. doi:10.1136/jech.29.3.151. PMC   478908 . PMID   1191883.
  2. 1 2 Bovet, J; Spagnoli, J; Sudan, C (1997). "[Mortality and birthdays]". Sozial- und Präventivmedizin (in French). 42 (3): 151–161. doi:10.1007/bf01300566. PMID   9334087. S2CID   45657303.
  3. 1 2 Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; et al. (2012). "Death has a preference for birthdays – an analysis of death time series". Annals of Epidemiology. 22 (8): 603–606. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.04.016. PMID   22658822.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Vaiserman, Alexander; Grigoryev, Pavel; Belaya, Irina; Voitenko, Vladimir (2003). "Variation of mortality rate during the individual annual cycle". Biogerontology. 4 (4): 221–225. doi:10.1023/A:1025168932058. PMID   14501186. S2CID   22678145.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Phillips, David; Van Voorhees, Camilla; Ruth, Todd (1992). "The Birthday: Lifeline or Deadline?". Psychosomatic Medicine. 54 (5): 532–542. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.103.5726 . doi:10.1097/00006842-199209000-00001. PMID   1438656. S2CID   12190316.
  6. 1 2 Peña, Pablo (2015). "A not so happy day after all: Excess death rates on birthdays in the U.S". Social Science & Medicine. 126: 59–66. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.12.014. PMID   25528555.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 Abel, Ernest; Kruger, Michael (2009). "Mortality Salience of Birthdays on Day of Death in the Major Leagues". Death Studies. 33 (2): 175–184. doi:10.1080/07481180802138936. PMID   19143110. S2CID   8439436.
  8. 1 2 Doblhammer, Gabrielle (1999). "Longevity and month of birth: Evidence from Austria and Denmark". Demographic Research. 1 (3): &#91, 22&#93, p. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.1999.1.3 . PMID   12178151.
  9. 1 2 3 Medenwald, Daniel; Kuss, Oliver (2014). "Deaths and major biographical events: a study of all cancer deaths in Germany from 1995 to 2009". BMJ Open. 4 (4): e004423. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004423. PMC   3987729 . PMID   24694623.
  10. ↑ Jessen, Gert; Jensen, Børge (1999). "Postponed Suicide Death? Suicides around Birthdays and Major Public Holidays". Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior. 29 (3): 272–283. doi:10.1111/j.1943-278X.1999.tb00302.x. PMID   10531639. S2CID   23575686.
  11. 1 2 3 Zonda, Tamás; Bozsonyi, Károly; Veres, Előd; Kmetty, Zoltán (2010). "The Effect of Birthday on the Fluctuation of Suicides in Hungary (1970–2002)" (PDF). Review of Sociology. 20 (2): 96–105. PMID   20458134.
  12. 1 2 Reulbach, Udo; Biermann, Teresa; Markovic, Katrin; Kornhuber, Johannes; Bleich, Stefan (2007). "The myth of the birthday blues: a population-based study about the association between birthday and suicide". Comprehensive Psychiatry. 48 (6): 554–557. doi:10.1016/j.comppsych.2007.06.006. PMID   17954141.
  13. ↑ Zusne, Leonard (1987). "Some Factors Affecting the Birthday-Deathday Phenomenon". OMEGA: Journal of Death and Dying. 17 (1): 9–26. doi:10.2190/RR4D-4W0L-5QAK-X4YX. S2CID   144694845.
  14. ↑ Williams A, While D, Windfuhr K, Bickley H, Hunt IM, Shaw J, et al. (2011). "Birthday blues: examining the association between birthday and suicide in a national sample". Crisis. 32 (3): 134–42. doi:10.1027/0227-5910/a000067. PMID   21616762.
  15. ↑ Carpenter, Christopher; Dobkin, Carlos (1 January 2009). "The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age". American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 1 (1): 164–182. doi:10.1257/app.1.1.164. PMC   2846371 . PMID   20351794.
  16. ↑ Carpenter, Christopher; Dobkin, Carlos (1 January 2009). "The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age (Web Appendix A and B)" (PDF). American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 1 (1): 164–182. doi:10.1257/app.1.1.164. PMC   2846371 . PMID   20351794.
  17. 1 2 3 Blakeslee, Sandra (22 September 1992). "Birthdays: a Matter Of Life and Death". New York Times. Retrieved 7 April 2016.
  18. ↑ Abel, Ernest; Kruger, Michael (2006). "Heaping in Anniversary Reaction Studies: A Cautionary Note". Omega: Journal of Death and Dying. 54 (1): 59–65. doi:10.2190/V752-6773-1KMW-3334. PMID   17844772. S2CID   24371210.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.