Grey-zone (international relations)

Last updated June 25, 2024

The grey-zone (also grey zone, gray zone, and gray-zone) describes the space in between peace and war in which state and non-state actors engage in competition.

Definition

Use of the term grey-zone is widespread in national security circles, but there is no universal agreement on the definition of grey-zone, or even whether it is a useful term, with views about the term ranging from "faddish" or "vague", to "useful" or "brilliant".^[1]

The grey-zone is defined as "competitive interactions among and within state and non-state actors that fall between the traditional war and peace duality." by the United States Special Operations Command.^[2] A key element of operations within the grey-zone is that they remain below the threshold of an attack which could have a legitimate conventional military response (jus ad bellum).^[3]^[4] One paper defined it as "coercive statecraft actions short of war", and a "mainly non-military domain of human activity in which states use national resources to deliberately coerce other states".^[1] The Center for Strategic and International Studies defines the grey-zone as "the contested arena somewhere between routine statecraft and open warfare."^[5] British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace called the grey-zone "that limbo land between peace and war."^[6]

According to Vincent Cable, examples of grey-zone activities include undermining industrial value chains or oil and gas supplies, money laundering, and the use of espionage and sabotage.^[7] According to Lee Hsi-ming "gray zone conflict is characterized by using the threat of force to create fear and intimidation."^[8] US Navy admiral Samuel Paparo has termed gray zone activities "illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive" (ICAP) following the preferred term of Romeo Brawner Jr. ^[9]

History

The term grey-zone was coined by the United States Special Operations Command ^[10]^[11] and published in a 2015 white paper.^[12] The concept of the grey-zone is built on existing military strategies; however, information technology has created radical new spaces which have expanded what is possible. Modern hybrid warfare and political warfare operations primarily occur in the grey-zone.^[13]

In the late 2010s, China escalated to grey-zone warfare with Taiwan in an attempt to force unification with the smaller country.^[14] Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration has had to expand rapidly to meet the rising grey-zone challenge.^[15] China's grey-zone operations against Taiwan in the maritime domain are meant to establish presence while maintaining plausible deniability.^[16]

Concerns

It is generally believed that non-democratic states can operate more effectively in the grey-zone as they are much less limited by domestic law and regulation. It can also be very hard for democratic states to respond to grey-zone threats because their legal and military systems are geared towards seeing conflicts through the sense of war and peace with little preparation or consideration for anything in between. This can lead democratic states to either dramatically overreact or under-react when faced with a grey-zone challenge.^[17]

Relation with hybrid warfare

The concept of grey-zone conflicts or warfare is distinct from the concept of hybrid warfare,^[18] although the two are intimately linked as in the modern era states most often apply unconventional tools and hybrid techniques in the grey-zone.^[19] However many of the unconventional tools used by states in the grey-zone such as propaganda campaigns, economic pressure and the use of non-state entities do not cross over the threshold into formalized state-level aggression.^[17]

Related Research Articles

The Republic of China Armed Forces are the armed forces of the Republic of China (ROC) that once ruled Mainland China and now currently restricted to its territorial jurisdictions of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu Islands. They consist of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Military Police Force. The military is under the civilian control of the Ministry of National Defense, a cabinet-level agency overseen by the Legislative Yuan.

Information warfare (IW) is the battlespace use and management of information and communication technology (ICT) in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent. It is different from cyberwarfare that attacks computers, software, and command control systems. Information warfare is the manipulation of information trusted by a target without the target's awareness so that the target will make decisions against their interest but in the interest of the one conducting information warfare. As a result, it is not clear when information warfare begins, ends, and how strong or destructive it is.

In political science, a proxy war is as an armed conflict fought between two belligerents, wherein one belligerent is a non-state actor supported by an external third-party power. In the term proxy war, the non-state actor is the proxy, yet both belligerents in a proxy war can be considered proxies if both are receiving foreign military aid from a third party country. Acting either as a nation-state government or as a conventional force, a proxy belligerent acts in behalf of a third-party state sponsor. A proxy war is characterised by a direct, long-term, geopolitical relationship between the third-party sponsor states and their client states and non-state clients, thus the political sponsorship becomes military sponsorship when the third-party powers fund the soldiers and their matériel to equip the belligerent proxy-army to launch and fight and sustain a war to victory, and government power.

Military operations other than war (MOOTW) are military operations that do not involve warfare, combat, or the threat or use of violence. They generally include peacekeeping, peacebuilding, disaster response, humanitarian aid, military engineering, law enforcement, arms control, deterrence, and multilateralism.

Fourth-generation warfare (4GW) is conflict characterized by a blurring of the distinction between war and politics, and of the distinction between combatants and civilians.

In warfare, a theater or theatre is an area in which important military events occur or are in progress. A theater can include the entirety of the airspace, land, and sea area that is—or that may potentially become—involved in war operations.

The Republic of China Army (ROCA), also known as the ROC Army and unofficially as the Taiwanese Army, is the largest branch of the Republic of China Armed Forces. An estimated 80% of the ROC Army is located on Taiwan, while the remainder are stationed on the Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, Dongsha and Taiping Islands.

The Coast Guard Administration of the Ocean Affairs Council (CGA) is charged with maintaining law and order, protecting the resources of the territorial waters of the Republic of China (Taiwan), which surrounds Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu Islands, Green Island, Orchid Island, Pratas Island (Tungsha/Dongsha), and Nansha Islands as well as providing a first line of defense along coastal areas against smugglers and illegal immigrants. The CGA is considered a civilian law enforcement agency under the administration of the Ocean Affairs Council of the Executive Yuan, though during emergencies it may be incorporated as part of the Republic of China Armed Forces.

Mountain warfare or alpine warfare is warfare in mountains or similarly rough terrain. The term encompasses military operations affected by the terrain, hazards, and factors of combat and movement through rough terrain, as well as the strategies and tactics used by military forces in these situations and environments.

Seth G. Jones is an academic, political scientist, author, and former senior official in the U.S. Department of Defense. Jones is most renowned for his work on defense strategy, the defense industrial base, irregular warfare, and counterterrrorism. Much of his published work and media interviews are on defense strategy; Chinese, Russian, and Iranian conventional and irregular capabilities and actions; and terrorist and insurgent groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. He is currently a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

China Coast Guard (CCG) is the maritime security, search and rescue, and law enforcement service branch of the People's Armed Police of China. The Coast Guard is an armed gendarmerie force, and its cutters are armed. Although the majority of its activities are ordinary law enforcement, it has gained notoriety for its role in political border clashes in the South China Sea and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Hybrid warfare is a theory of military strategy, first proposed by Frank Hoffman, which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare, and cyberwarfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare, regime change, and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or retribution. The concept of hybrid warfare has been criticized by a number of academics and practitioners due to its alleged vagueness, its disputed constitutive elements, and its alleged historical distortions.

Full spectrum diplomacy is a combination of traditional, government-to-government diplomacy with the many components of public diplomacy as well as the integration of these two functions with other instruments of statecraft. The term was coined by John Lenczowski, founder and president of The Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. in his book Full Spectrum Diplomacy and Grand Strategy: Reforming the Structure and Culture of U.S. Foreign Policy which was released in May, 2011.

Informatized warfare of China is the implementation of information warfare (IW) within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and other organizations affiliated or controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Laid out in the Chinese Defence White Paper of 2008, informatized warfare includes the utilization of information-based weapons and forces, including battlefield management systems, precision-strike capabilities, and technology-assisted command and control (C4ISR). However, some media and analyst reports also uses the term to describe propaganda and influence operations efforts of the Chinese state.

Anti-access/area denial is a military strategy to control access to and within an operating environment. In an early definition, anti-access refers to those actions and capabilities, usually long-range, designed to prevent an opposing force from entering an operational area. Area denial refers to those actions and capabilities, usually of shorter range, designed to limit an opposing force's freedom of action within the operational area. In short, A2 affects movement to a theater, while AD affects movement within a theater. A2/AD typically refers to a strategy used by a weaker opponent to defend against an opponent of superior skill, although a stronger opponent can also use A2/AD.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Political warfare</span> Use of political means to compel an opponent with hostile intent

Political warfare is the use of hostile political means to compel an opponent to do one's will. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience, including another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations ("PsyOps"), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations.

The Chinese Maritime Militia, also called the Fishery Militia (渔政民兵), is a naval militia of the People's Republic of China (PRC). It is the smallest of the three maritime forces used in Chinese sea patrol operations, next to the China Coast Guard (CCG) and the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

"Three warfares" is an official political and information non-kinetic warfare strategy of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) employing media or public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare. Promulgated as work regulations, the "three warfares" was set forth in the amended Political Work Regulations of the PLA in 2003.

The Gerasimov Doctrine, named after the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov, is a pseudo-military doctrine created by the Western media and some Russian analysts. It is based on Gerasimov’s views about U.S. contemporary warfare, putting interstate conflict and warfare on a par with political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other non-military activities. It became known after Mark Galeotti coined the term in his blog "In Moscow Shadows" and the invasion and annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Some Western analysts were convinced that the Russian actions reflected the "Gerasimov Doctrine" helping to spread the term and making it a buzzword.

New generation warfare or NGW is a Russian theory of unconventional warfare which prioritizes the psychological and people-centered aspects over traditional military concerns, and emphasizes a phased approach of non-military influence such that armed conflict, if it arises, is much less costly in human or economic terms for the aggressor than it otherwise would be. It was first enunciated in 2013 by Valery Gerasimov as part of his Gerasimov Doctrine.

References

1 2 Dobbs, Thomas; Fallon, Garth; Fouhy, Sarah (9 September 2020). Grey Zone. The Forge (Report). Australian Defence College. Archived from the original on 8 April 2022. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
↑ Kapusta, Philip. "The Gray Zone" (PDF). www.soc.mil. United States Special Operations Command. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 September 2021. Retrieved 18 February 2021.
↑ "Challenging the Grey Zone". www.law.upenn.edu. University of Pennsylvania Law School. Archived from the original on 20 November 2021. Retrieved 18 February 2021.
↑ Morris, Lyle J.; Mazarr, Michael J.; Hornung, Jeffrey W.; Pezard, Stephanie; Binnendijk, Anika; Kepe, Marta. "Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone" (PDF). www.rand.org. RAND. Retrieved 18 February 2021.
↑ Schaus, John; Federici, Joseph; Sheppard, Lindsey. "Gray Zone Project". www.csis.org. CSIS. Archived from the original on 28 December 2021. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
↑ Nicholls, Dominic. "SAS ordered to start disrupting Russian meddling around the world". news.yahoo.com. The Telegraph. Retrieved 21 March 2021.
↑ Korolev, Alexander (2023). "Political and Economic Security in Eurasia: English School Perspective". China and Eurasian powers in a Multipolar World Order 2.0: Security, Diplomacy, Economy and Cyberspace. Mher Sahakyan. New York: Routledge. p. 11. ISBN 978-1-003-35258-7. OCLC 1353290533.
↑ Su-wei, Wu; Chin, Jonathan. "Embrace innovation, admiral says". taipeitimes.com. Taipei Times. Retrieved 17 June 2023.
↑ "New US Indo-Pacific commander takes aim at China". Taipei Times . 2024-05-06. Retrieved 2024-05-06.
↑ Troeder, Elizabeth G. (2019). A Whole-of-Government Approach to Gray Zone Warfare (Report). Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College.
↑ "Gray Zone". specialforcestraining.info. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
↑ Kapusta, Philip (2015-09-09). "White Paper – The Gray Zone" (PDF). specialforcestraining.info. United States Special Operations Command . Retrieved 2024-01-09.
↑ Dowse, Andrew; Bachmann, Sascha-Dominik. "Explainer: what is 'hybrid warfare' and what is meant by the 'grey zone'?". theconversation.com. The Conversation. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
↑ LEE, YIMOU; LAGUE, DAVID; BLANCHARD, BEN. "China launches 'gray-zone' warfare to subdue Taiwan". www.reuters.com. Reuters. Retrieved 18 February 2021.
↑ Chien-pang, Liu; Kui-hsiang, Wen; Lim, Emerson. "Taiwan coast guard ships add new livery to distinguish them from China's". focustaiwan.tw. Focus Taiwan. Retrieved 17 February 2021.
↑ Chan, Eric (2 June 2021). "Escalating Clarity without Fighting: Countering Gray Zone Warfare against Taiwan (Part 2)". globaltaiwan.org. The Global Taiwan Institute. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
1 2 Belo, Dani; Carment, David. "Grey-Zone Conflict: Implications for Conflict Management". www.cgai.ca. CGAI. Retrieved 24 February 2021.
↑ Stoker, Donald; Whiteside, Craig (Winter 2020). "Blurred Lines: Gray-Zone Conflflict and Hybrid War—Two Failures of American Strategic Thinking". Naval War College Review. 73 (1): 1–37.
↑ Carment, David; Belo, Dani. "Gray-zone Conflict Management: Theory, Evidence, and Challenges". www.airuniversity.af.edu. Air Force University. Retrieved 18 February 2021.