Pre-crime

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Pre-crime (or precrime) is the idea that the occurrence of a crime can be anticipated before it happens. The term was coined by science fiction author Philip K. Dick, and is increasingly used in academic literature to describe and criticise the tendency in criminal justice systems to focus on crimes not yet committed. Precrime intervenes to punish, disrupt, incapacitate or restrict those deemed to embody future crime threats. The term precrime embodies a temporal paradox, suggesting both that a crime has not yet occurred and that it is a foregone conclusion. [1] [ page needed ]

Contents

Origins of the concept

George Orwell introduced a similar concept in his 1949 novel Nineteen Eighty-Four using the term thoughtcrime to describe illegal thoughts which held banned opinions about the ruling government or intentions to act against it. A large part of how it differs from precrime is in its absolute prohibition of anti-authority ideas and emotions, regardless of the consideration of any physical revolutionary acts. However, Orwell was describing behaviour he saw in governments of his day as well as extrapolating on that behaviour, and so his ideas were themselves rooted in real political history and current events.

In Philip K. Dick's 1956 science fiction short story "The Minority Report", Precrime is the name of a criminal justice agency, the task of which is to identify and eliminate persons who will commit crimes in the future. The agency’s work is based on the existence of "precog mutants", a trio of "vegetable-like" humans whose "every incoherent utterance" is analyzed by a punch card computer. As Anderton, the chief of the Precrime agency, explains the advantages of this procedure: "in our society we have no major crimes ... but we do have a detention camp full of would-be criminals". He cautions about the basic legal drawback to precrime methodology: "We're taking in individuals who have broken no law." [2]

The concept was brought to wider public attention by Steven Spielberg's film Minority Report , loosely adapted from the story. The Japanese cyberpunk anime television series Psycho-Pass has a similar concept. [3]

In criminological theory

Precrime in criminology dates back to the positivist school in the late 19th century, especially to Cesare Lombroso's idea that there are "born criminals", who can be recognized, even before they have committed any crime, on the basis of certain physical characteristics. Biological, psychological and sociological forms of criminological positivisms informed criminal policy in the early 20th century. For born criminals, criminal psychopaths, and dangerous habitual offenders eliminatory penalties (capital punishment, indefinite confinement, castration etc.) were seen as appropriate. [4] [ full citation needed ] Similar ideas were advocated by the social defense movement and, more recently, by what is seen and criticized as an emerging "new criminology" [5] or "actuary justice". [6] The new "precrime" or "security society" requires a radically new criminology. [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]

Testing for pre-delinquency

Richard Nixon's psychiatrist, Arnold Hutschnecker, suggested, in a memorandum to the president, to run mass tests of "pre-delinquency" and put those juveniles in "camps". Hutschnecker, a refugee from Nazi Germany and a vocal critic of Hitler at the time of his exodus, [12] has rejected the interpretation of the memorandum that he advocated concentration camps: [13]

It was the term camp that was distorted. My use of it dates back to when I came to the United States in 1936 and spent the summer as a doctor in a children's camp. It was that experience and the pastoral setting, as well as the activities, that prompted my use of the word "camp."

In criminal justice practice

The frontline of a modern criminal justice system is increasingly preoccupied with anticipating threats, and is the antithesis of the traditional criminal justice system's focus on past crimes. [1] [ page needed ] Traditionally, criminal justice and punishment presuppose evidence of a crime being committed. This time-honored principle is violated once punishment is meted out "for crimes never committed". [14] An example of this trend in the first decade of the twenty-first century is "nachträgliche Sicherungsverwahrung" ('retrospective security detention'), which became an option in German criminal law in 2004. This "measure of security" can be decided upon at the end of a prison sentence on a purely predictive basis. [15] [ full citation needed ] In France, a similarly predictive measure was introduced in 2008 as "rétention de sûreté" (security detention). The German measure was viewed as violating the European Convention on Human Rights by the European Court of Human Rights in 2009. As of 2014, the German law was still partly active in Germany and new legislation was planned for continuing the pre-crime law under the new name "Therapieunterbringung" (detention for therapy).[ citation needed ]. A similar provision for indefinite administrative detention was found in Finnish law, but it was not enforced after the mid-1970s. [16] Precrime is most obvious and advanced in the context of counter-terrorism, though it is argued that, far from countering terrorism, precrime produces the futures it purports to prevent. [17]

In 2020, the Tampa Bay Times compared the Pasco County Sheriff's Office precrime detection program to the film Minority Report , citing pervasive monitoring of suspects and repeated visits to their homes, schools, and places of employment. [18]

Current techniques

Specialist software was developed in 2015 for crime-prediction by analysing data. [19]

This type of software allows law enforcement agencies to make predictions about criminal behavior and identify potential criminal hotspots based on crime data.

Crime prediction software is criticised by academics and by privacy and civil liberties groups due to concerns about the lack of evidence for the technology's reliability and accuracy. [20]

Crime prediction algorithms often use racially skewed data in their analysis. This statistically leads law enforcement agencies to make decisions and predictions that unfairly target and label minority communities as at risk for criminal activity. [21]

A widely used criminal risk assessment tool called COMPAS (Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions) was developed in 1998. It was used by police and judges to predict the risk of recidivism amongst more than 1 million offenders. The software predicts the likelihood that a convicted criminal will reoffend within two years based upon data including 137 of the individual's physical features and past criminal records. [22]

A study published in Science Advances by two researchers found that groups of randomly chosen people could predict whether a past criminal would be convicted of a future crime with about 67 percent accuracy, a rate that was extremely similar to COMPAS. [23]

Although COMPAS does not explicitly collect data regarding race, a study testing its accuracy on more than 7,000 individuals arrested in Broward County, Florida showed substantial racial disparities in the software's predictions.

The results of the study showed that Black defendants who did not reoffend after their sentence were incorrectly predicted by COMPAS software to recidivate at a rate of 44.9%, as opposed to white defendants who were incorrectly predicted to reoffend at a rate of 23.5%. In addition, white defendants were incorrectly predicted to not be at risk of recidivism at a rate of 47.7%, as opposed to their Black counterparts who were incorrectly predicted to not reoffend at a rate of 28%. The study concluded that the COMPAS software appeared to overpredict recidivism risk towards Black individuals while underpredicting recidivism risk towards their white counterparts. [24]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">The Minority Report</span> 1956 science fiction novella by Philip K. Dick

"The Minority Report" is a 1956 science fiction novella by American writer Philip K. Dick, first published in Fantastic Universe. In a future society, three mutants foresee all crime before it occurs. Plugged into a great machine, these "precogs" allow a division of the police called Precrime to arrest suspects before they can commit any actual crimes. When the head of Precrime, John Anderton, is himself predicted to murder a man whom he has never heard of, Anderton is convinced a great conspiracy is afoot.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Restorative justice</span> Restitution with input from victims and offenders

Restorative justice is an approach to justice that aims to repair the harm done to victims. In doing so, practitioners work to ensure that offenders take responsibility for their actions, to understand the harm they have caused, to give them an opportunity to redeem themselves, and to discourage them from causing further harm. For victims, the goal is to give them an active role in the process, and to reduce feelings of anxiety and powerlessness. Restorative justice programs can also complement traditional methods, such as retributive justice, and it has been argued that some cases of restorative justice constitute punishment from the perspectives of some positions on what punishment is.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Juvenile delinquency</span> Illegal behavior by minors

Juvenile delinquency, also known as juvenile offending, is the act of participating in unlawful behavior as a minor or individual younger than the statutory age of majority. These acts would be considered crimes if the individuals committing them were older. The term delinquent usually refers to juvenile delinquency, and is also generalised to refer to a young person who behaves an unacceptable way.

Criminal psychology, also referred to as criminological psychology, is the study of the views, thoughts, intentions, actions and reactions of criminals and suspects. It is a subfield of criminology and applied psychology.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recidivism</span> Person repeating an undesirable behavior following punishment

Recidivism is the act of a person repeating an undesirable behavior after they have experienced negative consequences of that behavior, or have been trained to extinguish it. Recidivism is also used to refer to the percentage of former prisoners who are rearrested for a similar offense.

Articles related to criminology and law enforcement.

A sex offender is a person who has committed a sex crime. What constitutes a sex crime differs by culture and legal jurisdiction. The majority of convicted sex offenders have convictions for crimes of a sexual nature; however, some sex offenders have simply violated a law contained in a sexual category. Some of the serious crimes which result in a mandatory sex-offender classification are sexual assault, statutory rape, bestiality, child sexual abuse, incest, and rape.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lucia Zedner</span> British legal scholar

Lucia ZednerFBA is a British legal scholar. She is a professor of criminal justice at the University of Oxford and a senior fellow of All Souls College, Oxford.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Incapacitation (penology)</span> One of the functions of punishment

Incapacitation in the context of criminal sentencing philosophy is one of the functions of punishment. It involves capital punishment, sending an offender to prison, or possibly restricting their freedom in the community, to protect society and prevent that person from committing further crimes. Incarceration, as the primary mechanism for incapacitation, is also used as to try to deter future offending.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pre-trial detention</span> Detention after arrest and charge until a trial

Pre-trial detention, also known as jail, preventive detention, provisional detention, or remand, is the process of detaining a person until their trial after they have been arrested and charged with an offence. A person who is on remand is held in a prison or detention centre or held under house arrest. Varying terminology is used, but "remand" is generally used in common law jurisdictions and "preventive detention" elsewhere. However, in the United States, "remand" is rare except in official documents and "jail" is instead the main terminology. Detention before charge is commonly referred to as custody and continued detention after conviction is referred to as imprisonment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Prison</span> Facility where people are kept as punishment for a crime

A prison, also known as a jail, gaol, penitentiary, detention center, correction center, correctional facility, remand center, hoosegow, or slammer, is a facility where people are imprisoned under the authority of the state, usually as punishment for various crimes. Prisons are most commonly used within a criminal-justice system by authorities: people charged with crimes may be imprisoned until their trial; those who have pleaded or been found guilty of crimes at trial may be sentenced to a specified period of imprisonment.

A preventive state is a type of sovereign state or policy enacted by a state in which people deemed potentially dangerous are apprehended, and have their freedom restricted, before being able to commit a crime. Insofar as it differs from passive attempts to prevent criminal behaviour, it has been referred to by Eric S. Janus as "radical prevention". Its opposite is the punitive state, or any punitive methods, under which criminals are punished after a criminal act has been committed. To the extent that punitive methods often involve incarceration, thereby preventing further crimes being committed by the individual, they can also be considered preventive; the penological theory justifying this is incapacitation. Michael L. Rich further defines as the "perfect preventive state" a situation in which targeted criminal conduct is made impossible by the mandates of government.

In the United States, the practice of predictive policing has been implemented by police departments in several states such as California, Washington, South Carolina, Alabama, Arizona, Tennessee, New York, and Illinois. Predictive policing refers to the usage of mathematical, predictive analytics, and other analytical techniques in law enforcement to identify potential criminal activity. Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jurimetrics</span> Application of quantitative metrics to law

Jurimetrics is the application of quantitative methods, especially probability and statistics, to law. In the United States, the journal Jurimetrics is published by the American Bar Association and Arizona State University. The Journal of Empirical Legal Studies is another publication that emphasizes the statistical analysis of law.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Criminal justice reform in the United States</span> Reforms seeking to address structural issues in criminal justice systems of the United States

Criminal justice reform seeks to address structural issues in criminal justice systems such as racial profiling, police brutality, overcriminalization, mass incarceration, and recidivism. Reforms can take place at any point where the criminal justice system intervenes in citizens’ lives, including lawmaking, policing, sentencing and incarceration. Criminal justice reform can also address the collateral consequences of conviction, including disenfranchisement or lack of access to housing or employment, that may restrict the rights of individuals with criminal records.

The risk-needs-responsivity model is used in criminology to develop recommendations for how prisoners should be assessed based on the risk they present, what programs or services they require, and what kinds of environments they should be placed in to reduce recidivism. It was first proposed in 1990 based on the research conducted on classifications of offender treatments by Lee Sechrest and Ted Palmer, among other researchers, in the 1960s and 70s. It was primarily developed by Canadian researchers James Bonta, Donald A. Andrews, and Paul Gendreau. It has been considered the best model that exists for determining offender treatment, and some of the best risk-assessment tools used on offenders are based on it.

Grant Duwe is an American criminologist and research director at the Minnesota Department of Corrections, as well as a non-visiting scholar at Baylor University's Institute for Studies of Religion. Duwe holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Kansas and a Ph.D. in Criminology and Criminal Justice from Florida State University.

Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) is a case management and decision support tool developed and owned by Northpointe used by U.S. courts to assess the likelihood of a defendant becoming a recidivist.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Predictive policing</span> Use of predictive analytics to direct policing

Predictive policing is the usage of mathematics, predictive analytics, and other analytical techniques in law enforcement to identify potential criminal activity. A report published by the RAND Corporation identified four general categories predictive policing methods fall into: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime.

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References

  1. 1 2 McCulloch, Jude; Wilson, Dean (2016). Pre-crime: Pre-emption, precaution and the future. London and New York: Routledge. ISBN   9781315769714.
  2. ↑ Dick, Philip K. (2002). Minority Report . London: Gollancz. pp. 1–43.
  3. ↑ Wood, Mark A. (10 May 2018). "Algorithmic tyranny: Psycho-Pass, science fiction and the criminological imagination". Crime, Media, Culture. 15 (2): 323–339. doi:10.1177/1741659018774609. S2CID   149669592.
  4. ↑ Radzinowicz, Leon; Hood, Roger (1986). A History of English Criminal Law and Its Administration from 1750. London: Sweet & Maxwell. pp. 231–387.
  5. ↑ Feeley, Malcolm M.; Simon, Jonathan (November 1992). "The new penology: Notes on the emerging strategy of corrections and its implications". Criminology. 30 (4): 449–474. doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1992.tb01112.x.
  6. ↑ Feeley, Malcolm; Simon, Jonathan (1994). "Actuarial justice: The emerging new criminal law". In Nelken, David (ed.). The Futures of Criminology. London: Sage Publications. ISBN   9780803987159.
  7. ↑ Fitzgibbon, Diana Wendy (2004). Collett, Steve (ed.). Pre-emptive Criminalization: Risk Control and Alternative Futures. "ICCJ Monographs: Issues in Community and Criminal Justice" series. London: National Association of Probation Officers / Institute of Criminology and Criminal Justice. ISBN   9780901617194.
  8. ↑ Zedner, Lucia (2007). "Pre-crime and post-criminology?". Theoretical Criminology. 11 (2): 261–281. doi:10.1177/1362480607075851. S2CID   143498733.
  9. ↑ Zedner, Lucia (2009). Security. New York / London: Routledge. pp. 72 ff. ISBN   9780415391764.
  10. ↑ Zedner, Lucia (1 September 2010). "Pre-crime and pre-punishment: A health warning". Criminal Justice Matters. 81 (1): 24–25. doi:10.1080/09627251.2010.505409. ISSN   0962-7251.
  11. ↑ Zedner, Lucia (2014). "Preventive Detention of the Dangerous". In Ashworth, Andrew; Zedner, Luica; Tomlin, Patrick (eds.). Prevention and the Limits of the Criminal Law. Oxford University Press. pp. 144–170.
  12. ↑ Goode, Erica (3 January 2001), "Arnold Hutschnecker, 102, Therapist to Nixon", The New York Times , retrieved 24 February 2014
  13. ↑ Hutschnecker, Arnold (15 October 1998). "Nixon-era Plan for Children Didn't Include Concentration Camps". The New York Times . Retrieved 24 February 2014.
  14. ↑ Anttila, Inkeri (1975). Incarceration for Crimes Never Committed. Helsinki: Research Institute of Legal Policy. ISBN   9789517040266. Criticised the measure of security detention.
  15. ↑ Boetticher & Feest (2008), p. 263 sq.
  16. ↑ "EDILEX | Suomen johtava lakitietopalvelu ammattilaisille". Archived from the original on 8 February 2017.
  17. ↑ McCulloch, Jude; Pickering, Sharon (11 May 2009). "Pre-crime and Counter-terrorism: Imagining Future Crime in the 'War on Terror'". British Journal of Criminology. 49 (5): 628–645. doi:10.1093/bjc/azp023. ISSN   0007-0955.
  18. ↑ McGrory, Kathleen; Bedi, Neil (3 September 2020). "Targeted". Tampa Bay Times . Retrieved 6 September 2020.
  19. ↑ Baraniuk, Chris (11 March 2015). "Pre-crime software recruited to track gang of thieves".
  20. ↑ Coats, Kenneth. "The Future of Policing Using Pre-Crime Technology". Forbes. Retrieved 21 January 2021.
  21. ↑ Rieland, Randy. "Artificial Intelligence Is Now Used to Predict Crime. But Is It Biased?". Smithsonian . Retrieved 21 January 2021.
  22. ↑ Dressel, Julia; Farid, Hany (17 January 2018). "The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism". Science Advances . 4 (1): eaao5580. Bibcode:2018SciA....4.5580D. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao5580. PMC   5777393 . PMID   29376122.
  23. ↑ Chokshi, Niraj (19 January 2018). "Can Software Predict Crime? Maybe So, but No Better Than a Human". The New York Times . Retrieved 21 January 2021.
  24. ↑ Dressel, Julia; Farid, Hany (17 January 2018). "The accuracy, fairness, and limits of predicting recidivism". Science Advances. 4 (1): eaao5580. Bibcode:2018SciA....4.5580D. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao5580. PMC   5777393 . PMID   29376122.
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