The state has been described as America's "ground zero" for climate change, global warming and sea level rise, because "the majority of its population and economy is concentrated along low-elevation oceanfront."[2][3][4][5][6]
Florida residents think climate change is happening at higher rates than the national average. As of March 2023, about two-thirds of the state believes in anthropogenic climate change, up from 55% in April 2020.[7][8] However, the state remains politically divided: while Democrats have reached a general consensus on the issue, only half of Republicans agree and support teaching about climate change in schools.[9] Some communities in Florida have begun implementing climate change mitigation approaches; however, statewide initiatives have been hampered by the politicization of climate change in the United States, focusing on resilience rather than full scale mitigation and adaptation.[10]
Impact of sea level rise
Sea level rise of 1m effect on south eastern USA.South eastern USA population density and low elevation coastal zones.Wildfire, Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge, 2009
Flooding during high tides occurs in Miami Beach. The city is spending $500M on elevated roadways, seawalls, and pumping systems, as part of its Sea Level Rise Strategy.[11][12][13][14] GIS mapping of areas subject to flooding during high tides, storm surges, and major storm events is available.[15]
In Key Largo and Big Pine Key, $517,000 is being spent to raise one mile of roads, as a "Sea Level Rise Pilot Project".[16]
A "Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool is used by the Florida Department of Transportation, MPOs, local governments, and regional planning agencies to assess potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on transportation facilities."[17]
A 2018 Florida International University study says that sea level rise will inundate the mangroves of the Florida Everglades.[19] The stored carbon in the Everglades has been valued at between $2 billion and $3.4 billion.[20][21][22] "As the ocean pushes westward and north into the Everglades and the Biscayne Aquifer," the water supply of Miami will be impacted.[23][24][25] The loss of mangroves and wetlands due to sea level rise will also impact commercial fisheries.[23]
A change in hurricane frequency or intensity is of concern for Floridians. The Climate Change Center at Florida State University and Climate.gov say the science is inconclusive regarding hurricane frequency or intensity. However, rainfall rates will increase according to most climate models, and the storm surge associated with hurricanes will increase with rising sea levels.[26][27]
President Donald Trump viewing Hurricane Irma damage, Naples
After Hurricane Irma in 2017, which occurred just weeks after Hurricane Harvey, Governor Rick Scott did not attribute the possible changes in hurricane patterns to climate change.[28]
There is some evidence that hurricanes may slow down their rate of forward advance, like Hurricane Dorian, which spent a day and a half over Grand Bahama Island on its way to Florida.[29][30][31]
A category 5 hurricane is of most concern in the Tampa Bay area, and climate related sea level rise of as little as six inches would exacerbate its impact.[32]
According to the Fifth National Climate Assessment published in 2023, coastal states including California, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are experiencing "more significant storms and extreme swings in precipitation".[33]
Governor Charlie Crist signed several executive orders related to climate change upon taking office. These executive orders included tailpipe emission limits for cars sold in Florida, called for reductions in the state's greenhouse gas emissions, and mandated a minimum of 20 percent renewable energy by 2020 for Florida's electric utilities. The Public Service Commission rejected six new coal-fired power plants under Crist.[34]
Governor Rick Scott "denied the idea of anthropogenic global warming" during his first election in 2010.[28] Use of the term "climate change" was discouraged during his administration. He also eliminated mandates to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and appointed climate skeptics to posts such as the Public Service Commission.[2][35] Scott vetoed $750,000 budgeted for pumping water out of Miami Beach, on the grounds that the money didn't provide "a clear statewide return for the investment,"[35] and did not reply directly when asked if he would support efforts to protect Miami's water supply.[25] Scott was sued by a group of children aged 10–20 for his positions on climate.[36]
Governor Ron DeSantis established an Office of Resiliency and Coastal Protection.[37] DeSantis was noted for actually speaking the word "climate change" in his statement: "This idea of – quote – 'climate change' has become politicized. My environmental policy is just to try to do things that benefit Floridians."[37] However, DeSantis has not make climate mitigation, renewable energy, or greenhouse gas reduction a policy priority.[38][39] In January 2020, DeSantis was given a D grade by the Sierra Club of Florida "for his work on environmental protection and sustainability."[39]
Florida's Republican candidates in local, state, and national office have emphasized risk mitigation and resilience for dealing with climate-related impacts, rather than climate mitigation efforts to prevent climate change.[35][39]
By contrast, South Florida Republicans, such as Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez, Representative Carlos Curbelo, and former Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, have said that "man-made climate change is real and needs to be taken seriously."[28]
Florida State Senator José Javier Rodriguez has attempted to draw attention to the problem of sunny day flooding by wearing black rainboots during legislative sessions.[40]
In May 2024, Republican governor Ron DeSantis signed into law, removal of eight of fifteen references to climate change from state laws, removing greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a priority for energy policy, banning construction of offshore wind turbines off Florida's coasts, weakening regulations on natural gas pipelines, and preventing cities from banning appliances like gas stoves.[41]
Public opinion
The "Energy Poll", conducted by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin, found that 63% of Floridians in March 2012 believed climate change occurs. The same survey conducted in 2016 saw the number rise to 81%.[35] An October 2020 survey conducted by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) found that over two-thirds of Florida residents expressed concerns about the impact of climate change on the state's future.[42]
In 2023, the FAU's "Florida Climate Resilience Survey" found that 65% of respondents, including 49% of Republicans, believe that climate change is predominantly the result of human activity.[43]
Impact on transportation
Electric vehicle charging station, Miami
The Florida Department of Transportation has studied how to use greenhouse gas calculation tools as part of the transportation planning processes, and analyzes transportation infrastructure for impacts of sea level rise.[44][17]
Impact on mangroves
Mangroves are threatened in the Everglades, due to sea level rise.[45] However, the range of mangroves is extending northwards as storms spread the mangrove seed-like propagules. There has been no hard freeze that kills mangroves in Northeast Florida for 30 years.
Mangroves are especially important for carbon sequestration, and have been referred to as "blue carbon." The stored carbon in the mangroves of the Everglades has been estimated to be worth between $2 billion and $3.4 billion.[46]
Mangroves are also useful for flood control and storm protection. At the Tolomato Matanzas Research Reserve, mangroves create a flood barrier during storms, thereby protecting trees. Mangroves also produce soil, which helps maintain the height of the coastline.[47]
Economically destructive red tides are expected to continue as a result of pollution and warming water.[11]
Impact on human health
Florida and the U.S. Southeast region face many health-related threats due to tropical storms, sea level rise, extreme heat, and drought.[48]
Flooding and Tropical Cyclones
Florida is a low-lying state and is estimated to be the state in the U.S. with the largest population and proportion of population living in the low-elevation coastal zone.[49]Sea level rise threatens to increase flooding. Of an estimated 590,000 people in South Florida vulnerable to sea level rise, it is estimated that 125,000 are socially vulnerable and 55,000 are medically vulnerable.[50]
Tropical cyclones like hurricanes can threaten health in a variety of ways: flooding, strong winds, hazards in the recovery period after a storm, evacuation and displacement, and mental health impacts.
In the United States, drowning is the leading cause of flooding-related death, particularly due to powerful storm surges.[51] Storms can directly threaten lives and also cause power outages due to winds and/or flooding. In Florida, power outages after Hurricane Irma were associated with higher mortality in nursing home residents.[52]
Evacuation and displacement due to a storm can impact health. During the evacuation process, people can lose or forget medication and devices such as hearing aids or dentures and may have difficulty filling prescriptions.[53]
Recovery after a major storm can involve heavy construction and exposure to hazardous materials in floodwaters such as sewage, chemicals, and sharp or broken objects.[54] Dampness after flooding can facilitate mold growth, which is common after flooding in Florida; Florida's hot and humid climate creates favorable conditions for mold growth even in the absence of flooding.[55]
Compared to less developed areas of the world, threats of infectious, respiratory, and diarrheal diseases are low in high income/ developed countries like the U.S. but are more prevalent following flooding events.[51]
Longer-term health impacts include impacts on mental health and pregnancy outcomes. Flooding puts people at higher risk of mental health challenges such as post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression.[56] A study of Hurricane Charley in Florida found that exposure to higher wind speeds increased risk of preterm birth.[57]
Extreme Heat
The impacts on health of climate change fueled extreme heat are anticipated to be minimal due to Florida's already warm climate that means that much of the population is acclimatized, or adjusted, to heat and most buildings have air conditioning installed.[58] However, extreme heat may still be a threat to older adults, homeless populations, and people who spend time outdoors such as workers in industries such as agriculture and tourism, as well as tourists themselves.[58][59] In summer 2023, Orlando, which contains theme parks such as Disney World, saw its first-ever heat warning from the National Weather Service and saw spikes in heat-related distress calls, more than double than the number five years prior.[60]
Wildfires
Wildfire
While Florida doesn’t make headlines for wildfires as much as other U.S. states like California and Colorado, it too is vulnerable to wildfires, which can have many health impacts, such as on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems.[61] Florida wildfires are most frequent under hot and dry conditions and many fires in the state are prescribed burns or are sparked by military activities.[50] Conditions of future drought and temperature rise may increase wildfire potential in the state.[50]
Mosquito-borne diseases
An Aedes aegypti mosquito on a leaf. CC BY-SA 4.0 by Wee Hong
Southern Florida already has a high suitability for mosquito-borne diseases because it is habitable for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that carry viruses like those that cause Zika, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever.[50] Future climate change projections predict that much of the Southeastern U.S. will be vulnerable to mosquito-borne diseases, particularly southern Florida which may become suitable to year-round disease transmission.[50]
Population Vulnerability
A considerable proportion of Florida’s population has characteristics that may make them more vulnerable to health impacts or that may pose barriers to accessing healthcare; approximately 21.6% of Florida's population is over the age of 65, 21.0% are foreign born, 12.7% live below the federal poverty level, and approximately 13.9% of the population does not have health insurance.[62]
Impact of climate change on real estate in coastal areas
color-coded shaded relief map generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. For the view on the right, elevations below 5 meters (16 feet) above sea level have been colored dark blue, and lighter blue indicates elevations below 10 meters (33 feet).Sign thanking linemen and first responders after Hurricane Michael, Chattahoochee 2019
In 2017, the real estate website Zillow wrote that if climate predictions were correct, by 2100 "One in eight Florida homes would be under water, accounting for nearly half of the lost housing value nationwide." This calculation was based on comparing NOAA maps for a 6-foot sea level rise with the Zillow database of homes.[63]
Real estate website Curbed has presented a table with impacted cities in Florida, homes at risk, and dollar estimates. Curbed has estimated that "Roughly 64,000 homes—including 12,000 in Miami Beach, a nexus of real estate investment—will face chronic flooding," and has described how changes are needed in National Flood Insurance Program.[64] AP cites data from climate risk analytics firm Jupiter Intelligence indicating that "extreme flooding could go from affecting 5% to 86% of Miami-Dade's residential real estate supply by 2030."[65]
A 2018 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, titled: Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate stated that Florida is the state with the most homes at risk from climate change: "about 1 million homes (more than 10% of the state's current residential properties)."[66]
Officials in the Florida Keys found that it would take 75 million dollars to save three miles of road serving about two dozen homes. A December 2019 New York Times article describing the decisions facing Monroe County was titled, "Florida Keys Deliver a Hard Message: As Seas Rise, Some Places Can't Be Saved."[67] Some small islands in the Keys may disappear altogether.[68]
Climate gentrification is increasing real estate values in parts of Miami that are at higher elevation, and decreasing values in lower-elevation areas.[69] By 2017, two poor black neighborhoods of Miami which are located on higher ground, Little Haiti and Liberty City, started becoming more attractive to investors.[70][69][71] Home prices appreciated more slowly in 2018 in Miami Beach and lower-lying areas of Miami-Dade County.[72]
One flood assessment company describes the South Florida housing market as being kept afloat by "systemic fraudulent nondisclosure" of flood risks to property.[73][74] A bill passed by the US House of Representatives to require real estate agents to disclose flood risks had not made it through the Senate as of February 2019.[73]
Florida's climate change education standard states: "Identify, analyze, and relate the internal (earth system) and external (astronomical) conditions that contribute to global climate change." The standard falls short of the Next Generation Science Standards, which have been adopted by 20 states and the District of Columbia. The human-caused elements of climate change and role of human activity are treated "as an aside," according to a leader with the Alliance for Climate Education.[75]
Local climate mitigation efforts
Miami-Dade County has built seawalls,[76] implemented an Urban CO2 Reduction Plan,[77] and participates in the South Florida Regional Climate Compact.[78] Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has pledged to make the city carbon neutral by 2050.[42]
Pensacola has formed a Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Task Force which meets monthly.[79][80][81]
Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer was "one of the nation's first mayors to sign onto the Climate Mayors' Pledge." Orlando plans to convert its city vehicle fleet to alternative fuels by 2030.[82]
Sarasota's Climate Adaption and Mitigation Center has been funded to work on "a curated database of peer-reviewed science to inform decision-making in academia, government and the private sector."[83]
In North Central Florida, where climate change denial is stronger, climate change efforts were starting to be visible in 2020 in Gainesville, Alachua County, St. Augustine and Jacksonville.[84]
In Broward County's Oakland Park, drainage installed with a FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant prevented damage to 400 homes during Hurricane Irma.[85]
Coral Gables Mayor Jim Cason has said, "We're working hard to create solutions until we inevitably must retreat."[86]
South Florida climate adaptation strategies
Climate journalism
The South Florida Sun Sentinel, Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, along with WLRNPublic Media, have formed a collaboration to cover climate change issues. The collaboration provides news and feature coverage, and a website created by its editorial boards titled: The Invading Sea, Florida and the Climate Crisis.[87][88]
Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact
The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact is a partnership between Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach Counties. Its goal is "to work collaboratively to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, implement adaptation strategies, and build climate resilience."[78]
Integrative Collaborative on Climate and Energy (ICCE)
The Florida Center for Environmental Studies at Florida Atlantic University has formed an Integrative Collaborative on Climate and Energy (ICCE) focused on issues of climate adaptation in Florida's urban and natural systems. Partners include the Florida Climate Initiative, the University of South Florida, and various government agencies.[89]
Miami-Dade County Climate Programs
Miami has been described as "ground zero" for climate change and sea level rise."[90] The Miami-Dade County Office of Resilience has implemented climate programs and a Climate Action Plan,[91][92] and there is a Sea Level Rise Committee.[93] Protecting the water supply and the Biscayne Aquifer is a priority.[23][24][25]
The Everglades is a natural region of flooded grasslands in the southern portion of the U.S. state of Florida, comprising the southern half of a large drainage basin within the Neotropical realm. The system begins near Orlando with the Kissimmee River, which discharges into the vast but shallow Lake Okeechobee. Water leaving the lake in the wet season forms a slow-moving river 60 miles (97 km) wide and over 100 miles (160 km) long, flowing southward across a limestone shelf to Florida Bay at the southern end of the state. The Everglades experiences a wide range of weather patterns, from frequent flooding in the wet season to drought in the dry season. Throughout the 20th century, the Everglades suffered significant loss of habitat and environmental degradation.
Biscayne National Park is a national park of the United States located south of Miami, Florida, in Miami-Dade County. The park preserves Biscayne Bay and its offshore barrier reefs. Ninety-five percent of the park is water, and the shore of the bay is the location of an extensive mangrove forest. The park covers 172,971 acres and includes Elliott Key, the park's largest island and northernmost of the true Florida Keys, formed from fossilized coral reef. The islands farther north in the park are transitional islands of coral and sand. The offshore portion of the park includes the northernmost region of the Florida Reef, one of the largest coral reefs in the world.
Everglades National Park is a national park of the United States that protects the southern twenty percent of the original Everglades in Florida. The park is the largest tropical wilderness in the United States and the largest wilderness of any kind east of the Mississippi River. An average of one million people visit the park each year. Everglades is the third-largest national park in the contiguous United States after Death Valley and Yellowstone. UNESCO declared the Everglades & Dry Tortugas Biosphere Reserve in 1976 and listed the park as a World Heritage Site in 1979, and the Ramsar Convention included the park on its list of Wetlands of International Importance in 1987. Everglades is one of only three locations in the world to appear on all three lists.
The 1929 Bahamas hurricane was a high-end Category 4 tropical cyclone whose intensity and slow forward speed led to catastrophic damage in the Bahamas in September 1929, particularly on Andros and New Providence islands. Its erratic path and a lack of nearby weather observations made the hurricane difficult to locate and forecast. The storm later made two landfalls in Florida, killing eleven but causing comparatively light damage. Moisture from the storm led to extensive flooding over the Southeastern United States, particularly along the Savannah River. Across its path from the Bahamas to the mouth of the Saint Lawrence River, the hurricane killed 155 people.
The Florida mangroves ecoregion, of the mangrove forest biome, comprise an ecosystem along the coasts of the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys. Four major species of mangrove populate the region: red mangrove, black mangrove, white mangrove, and the buttonwood. The mangroves live in the coastal zones in the more tropical southern parts of Florida; mangroves are particularly vulnerable to frosts. Mangroves are important habitat as both fish nursery and brackish water habitats for birds and other coastal species.
The environment of Florida in the United States yields an array of land and marine life in a mild subtropical climate. This environment has drawn millions of people to settle in the once rural state over the last hundred years. Florida's population increases by about 1,000 residents each day. Land development and water use have transformed the state, primarily through drainage and infill of the wetlands that once covered most of the peninsula.
There are a number of environmental issues in Florida. A large portion of Florida is a biologically diverse ecosystem, with large wetlands in the Everglades. Management of environmental issues related to the everglades and the larger coastal waters and wetlands have been important to the history of Florida and the development of multiple parts of the economy of Florida, including the influential agricultural industry. This biodiversity leaves much of Florida's ecological ecosystem vulnerable to invasive species and human sources of industrial pollution and waste.
Before drainage, the Everglades, a region of tropical wetlands in southern Florida, were an interwoven mesh of marshes and prairies covering 4,000 square miles (10,000 km2). The Everglades is both a vast watershed that has historically extended from Lake Okeechobee 100 miles (160 km) south to Florida Bay, and many interconnected ecosystems within a geographic boundary. It is such a unique meeting of water, land, and climate that the use of either singular or plural to refer to the Everglades is appropriate. When Marjory Stoneman Douglas wrote her definitive description of the region in 1947, she used the metaphor "River of Grass" to explain the blending of water and plant life.
A national push for expansion and progress toward the latter part of the 19th century stimulated interest in draining the Everglades, a region of tropical wetlands in southern Florida, for agricultural use. According to historians, "From the middle of the nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, the United States went through a period in which wetland removal was not questioned. Indeed, it was considered the proper thing to do."
Wetland conservation is aimed at protecting and preserving areas of land including marshes, swamps, bogs, and fens that are covered by water seasonally or permanently due to a variety of threats from both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Some examples of these hazards include habitat loss, pollution, and invasive species. Wetland vary widely in their salinity levels, climate zones, and surrounding geography and play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and support human communities. Wetlands cover at least six percent of the Earth and have become a focal issue for conservation due to the ecosystem services they provide. More than three billion people, around half the world's population, obtain their basic water needs from inland freshwater wetlands. They provide essential habitats for fish and various wildlife species, playing a vital role in purifying polluted waters and mitigating the damaging effects of floods and storms. Furthermore, they offer a diverse range of recreational activities, including fishing, hunting, photography, and wildlife observation.
Coastal flooding occurs when dry and low-lying land is submerged (flooded) by seawater. The range of a coastal flooding is a result of the elevation of floodwater that penetrates the inland which is controlled by the topography of the coastal land exposed to flooding. The seawater can flood the land via several different paths: direct flooding, overtopping or breaching of a barrier. Coastal flooding is largely a natural event. Due to the effects of climate change and an increase in the population living in coastal areas, the damage caused by coastal flood events has intensified and more people are being affected.
Tidal flooding, also known as sunny day flooding or nuisance flooding, is the temporary inundation of low-lying areas, especially streets, during exceptionally high tide events, such as at full and new moons. The highest tides of the year may be known as the king tide, with the month varying by location. These kinds of floods tend not to be a high risk to property or human safety, but further stress coastal infrastructure in low lying areas.
Climate change in Louisiana encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of Louisiana.
Climate change has had large impacts on the ecosystems and landscapes of the US territory Puerto Rico. According to a 2019 report by Germanwatch, Puerto Rico is the most affected by climate change. The territory's energy consumption is mainly derived from imported fossil fuels.
Climate change in South Carolina encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of South Carolina.
Climate changein the Caribbean poses major risks to the islands in the Caribbean. The main environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a rise in sea level, stronger hurricanes, longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons. As a result, climate change is expected to lead to changes in the economy, environment and population of the Caribbean. Temperature rise of 2°C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by four to five times in the Bahamas and three times in Cuba and the Dominican Republic. A rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin America and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29–32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas is expected to be the most affected because at least 80% of the total land is below 10 meters elevation.
Climate change is having serious impacts in the Philippines such as increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, sea level rise, extreme rainfall, resource shortages, and environmental degradation. All of these impacts together have greatly affected the Philippines' agriculture, water, infrastructure, human health, and coastal ecosystems and they are projected to continue having devastating damages to the economy and society of the Philippines.
Due to its geographical and natural diversity, Indonesia is one of the countries most susceptible to the impacts of climate change. This is supported by the fact that Jakarta has been listed as the world's most vulnerable city, regarding climate change. It is also a major contributor as of the countries that has contributed most to greenhouse gas emissions due to its high rate of deforestation and reliance on coal power.
Climate change in North Carolina is of concern due to its impacts on the environment, climate, people, and economy of North Carolina. "Most of the state has warmed one-half to one degree (F) in the last century, and the sea is rising about one inch every decade." North Carolina, along with the rest of the Southeastern United States, has warmed less than the rest of the country.
Climate gentrification is a subset of climate migration, in which certain lower-socioeconomic communities are displaced in place of housing for more wealthy communities. Areas affected by this phenomenon are typically coastal cities, islands, and other vulnerable areas that are susceptible to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other climate-related disasters.
Carter, L.; A. Terando; K. Dow; K. Hiers; K.E. Kunkel; A. Lascurain; D. Marcy; M. Osland; P. Schramm (2018). "Southeast". In Reidmiller, D.R.; C.W. Avery; D.R. Easterling; K.E. Kunkel; K.L.M. Lewis; T.K. Maycock; B.C. Stewart (eds.). Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II (Report). Washington, DC, USA: U.S. Global Change Research Program. pp.872–940. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH19.—this chapter of the National Climate Assessment covers Southeast states (Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana).
"Climate Change and Florida"(PDF). United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation. September 1997. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
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