Elbridge Colby

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Colby has to date claimed that he hopes for the US to scale back its support of Ukraine and to instead focus on China as America’s primary geopolitical threat. Yet there is good reason to disbelieve this claim. It is instead more probable that Colby is simply using China as a pretext to scale back US commitments more broadly.

Brian Hioe, in New Bloom Magazine, 28 July 2025. [38]

Despite his reputation as a China hawk, Colby does not describe the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or CCP general secretary Xi Jinping as "evil" and rejects a "cartoonish account" of China as "unstoppably rapacious", believing China to be a "rising power" with "a rational interest in expanding their sphere and believing themselves to be aggrieved and put upon". He supports treating China with respect and a "strong shield of disincentive", continuing by saying that his policy is "status quo. My strategy is not designed to suppress or humiliate China… I believe China could achieve a reasonable conception of the rejuvenation of the great Chinese nation, consistent with the achievement of my strategy. If you put all that together, that looks like somebody who is advocating for peace based on a realistic reading of the world." [31] He also believes the U.S. should not seek to change China's internal politics or ideological system as long as China does not seek regional hegemony. [35]

Colby supports deprioritizing North Korea, telling Yonhap News Agency in May 2024 that the "fundamental fact is that North Korea is not a primary threat to the U.S." and it "would not be rational to lose multiple American cities to just deal with North Korea". [39] He called on South Korea to take "overwhelming responsibility" for its own defense against North Korea, with the U.S. getting involved only if China gets involved. He also said United States Forces Korea should be focused on protecting South Korea from possible Chinese attacks instead of being "held hostage to dealing with the North Korean problem". He supports transferring wartime operational control from the U.S. to South Korea, while signaling his openness to South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons. He said the denuclearization of North Korea was an "impossibly far-fetched" idea, instead calling to focus on more "attainable" goals such as arms control focused on limiting the range of North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles. [40] He advocates for Japan to spend more on its military, telling The Nikkei in September 2024 that Japan should spend 3% of its GDP on military. [41]

Europe

If he [Colby] has his way — irrespective of what Trump does tomorrow or the day after — America will keep weaning itself from Europe and the Middle East, and eventually cease being a global leader to become a North American and Pacific power.

Andreas Kluth on Colby, in a Bloomberg opinion piece, July 2025. [28]

Colby believes aiding Ukraine during the Russian invasion of Ukraine jeopardizes America's focus on China. In 2023, he told Politico that "Ukraine should not be the focus. The best way to avoid war with China is to be manifestly prepared such that Beijing recognizes that an attack on Taiwan is likely to fail. We need to be a hawk to get to a place where we can be a dove. It's about a balance of power". [6] Colby later wrote that "it is in America's interest to avoid [Ukrainian defeat], but we must pursue that interest in a manner consistent with our highest priority of restoring a formidable denial defense along Asia's first island chain." [42] He opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO. [43] Colby instead supports European countries to commit more resources on countering Russia and bolstering their militaries, allowing the U.S. to shift its resources on Asia. [31] Colby has repeatedly expressed skepticism toward AUKUS and has reactively negatively to the deployment of a UK carrier strike group to the Indo-Pacific. [44] He believes European NATO members should spend around 3 to 4 percent of their GDP on defense and says the U.S. should be "prepared to use carrots and sticks to incentivize the right kind of behavior from our point of view" in regards to European countries. [45]

Middle East

Colby supports a reduction of U.S. military presence in the Middle East, a region which he described as "relatively unimportant" from a geopolitical standpoint. He supports withdrawing the U.S. military from the Persian Gulf, arguing the U.S. can counter Iran "more efficiently" by "bolstering the military capabilities of its partners in the region". He opposes direct military action against Iran, while arguing that containing an Iran with nuclear weapons "is an entirely plausible and practical objective. In an article written shortly before the 7 October Hamas-led attack on Israel, Colby called for a "reset" in America's relationship with Israel, saying America should "defer more to Israel's judgement about how to best manage its security challenges", and that while the US should be prepared to provide material and political support to Israel, it should understand that the US., which "cannot afford to be enmeshed in another Middle Eastern war, will take a supporting role." He later questioned the Biden administration's efforts to counter the Houthis in Yemen. [33]

Personal life

Colby is married to Susanna Colby. [46] He is Catholic. [47]

Selected publications

References

  1. https://x.com/USDPColby/status/1912139894832365845?t=xoqyjdPjjcpqIciHnTWJ_w&s=19
  2. "Elbridge Colby | the Marathon Initiative". March 26, 2021.
  3. Colby, Elbridge (2024). アジア・ファースト―新・アメリカの軍事戦略[Asia First: The New American Military Strategy] (in Japanese). Bungeishunjū. p. 74. ISBN   9784166614684.
  4. "A Pentagon Nomination Fight Reveals the New Rules of Trump's Washington". The New York Times . March 17, 2025.
  5. 1 2 3 "Biographies: Elbridge A. Colby". U.S. Department of Defense.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Heilbrunn, Jacob (April 11, 2023). "Elbridge Colby Wants to Finish What Donald Trump Started". Politico . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  7. 1 2 "Elbridge Colby". The Nixon Seminar. June 6, 2022.
  8. "Elbridge A. Colby". U.S. Department of Defense.
  9. Tau, Byron (April 8, 2015). "GOP Foreign Policy Factions Tussle for Sway in Jeb Bush Campaign Team". Wall Street Journal . ISSN   0099-9660 . Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  10. 1 2 Colby, Elbridge (March 2, 2022). "Defense Strategy and a Strategy of Denial?". Institute for National Strategic Studies.
  11. Mattis, Jim. "Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America" (PDF). United States of America Department of Defense. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 5, 2021. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  12. Mehta, Aaron (January 19, 2018). "National Defense Strategy released with clear priority: Stay ahead of Russia and China". Defense News. January 19, 2018.
  13. "CNAS Welcomes Elbridge Colby as Director of the Defense Program". www.cnas.org. Retrieved July 1, 2023.
  14. "Elbridge Colby | The Marathon Initiative". April 14, 2023. Retrieved July 1, 2023.
  15. "The 10 Best Books of 2021". Wall Street Journal . December 1, 2021. ISSN   0099-9660 . Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  16. "Trump makes defense, Doge and Latin America envoy picks for administration". The Guardian . December 23, 2024. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  17. Jaffe, Greg (March 17, 2025). "A Pentagon Nomination Fight Reveals the New Rules of Trump's Washington". The New York Times. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  18. "MAGA takes aim at the Republican hawks". Politico . February 21, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  19. "Trump's Pick for Key Pentagon Role Faces Off With GOP Hawks". Foreign Policy . March 5, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  20. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5237883-senate-confirms-elbridge-colby-pentagon/
  21. Palmer, Ewan (April 9, 2025). "Mitch McConnell vote sparks MAGA fury: "Pathetic"". Newsweek. Retrieved April 12, 2025.
  22. Sevastopulo, Demetri; Fisher, Lucy (May 7, 2025). "US wants UK military to focus more on Europe and away from Asia". Financial Times . Retrieved June 25, 2025.
  23. Sevastopulo, Demetri (June 11, 2025). "Pentagon launches review of Aukus nuclear submarine deal". Financial Times . Retrieved June 25, 2025.
  24. Foy, Henry; Sevastopulo, Demetri; Lewis, Leo (June 20, 2025). "Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defence spending". Financial Times . Retrieved June 25, 2025.
  25. Hioe, Brian (July 27, 2025). "Does Elbridge Colby Hope to Refocus the US on China? Or To Justify Isolationism?". New Bloom Magazine. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  26. "The Trump administration's shifting explanation of Ukraine weapons pause". ABC News. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  27. "Trump says U.S. will send more weapons to Ukraine, after halting some shipments - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. July 9, 2025. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  28. 1 2 Kluth, Andreas (July 9, 2025). "The Deep Thinker Rising Through a Shallow Pentagon". Bloomberg.
  29. "Pentagon says US will play a minimal role in Ukraine's security guarantee". POLITICO. August 20, 2025. Retrieved August 21, 2025.
  30. Helmore, Edward (August 23, 2025). "Pentagon has blocked Ukraine from striking deep inside Russia – report". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Ahmari, Sohrab (July 2, 2024). "Elbridge Colby: "I am signalling to China that my policy is status quo"". New Statesman . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  32. Colby, Elbridge; Robert, Kevin (March 21, 2023). "The Correct Conservative Approach to Ukraine Shifts the Focus to China". Time .
  33. 1 2 Kassel, Matthew (November 13, 2024). "Rumored for a Trump posting, Elbridge Colby's dovish views on Iran stand out". Jewish Insider . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  34. 1 2 "Trump's Foreign-Policy Influencers". Foreign Policy . December 26, 2024. Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  35. 1 2 Lo, Kinling (December 5, 2021). "Trump-era hawk wants US to 'prepare for limited war' with China over Taiwan". South China Morning Post . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  36. Hioe, Brian (July 27, 2025). "Does Elbridge Colby Hope to Refocus the US on China? Or To Justify Isolationism?". New Bloom Magazine. Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  37. Moriyasu, Ken (March 5, 2025). "Taiwan should spend 10% of GDP on defense, Pentagon No. 3 pick Colby says". Nikkei Asia . Retrieved March 5, 2025.
  38. Hioe, Brian (July 28, 2025). "Does Elbridge Colby Hope to Refocus the US on China? Or To Justify Isolationism". New Bloom Magazine.
  39. Song, Sang-ho (May 8, 2024). "Ex-Pentagon official stresses need for war plan rethink, swift OPCON transfer, USFK overhaul". Yonhap News Agency . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  40. Reddy, Shreyas (December 23, 2024). "Trump taps China hawk who has deemphasized North Korea for key defense post". NK News . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  41. Johnson, Jesse (December 23, 2024). "Trump's Pentagon policy pick pushed for Japan to spend 3% of GDP on defense". The Japan Times . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  42. Colby, Elbridge (July 14, 2023). "How We Can Help Ukraine While Genuinely Prioritizing Asia". Time .
  43. Ismay, John (December 23, 2024). "Trump Names His Picks for Top Pentagon Roles". The New York Times . Archived from the original on December 23, 2024. Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  44. "Pentagon policy chief's rogue decisions have irked US allies and the Trump administration". Politico . July 8, 2025. Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  45. Dettmer, Jamie (May 17, 2024). "Trump ally has tough love for Europe". Politico . Retrieved December 23, 2024.
  46. "Chairman Wicker Leads SASC Hearing on Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Nominee Elbridge Colby". U.S. Senator Roger Wicker. March 4, 2025. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  47. "Catholic Strategist Promotes Stewardship Approach to Foreign Policy | National Catholic Register". www.ncregister.com. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  48. Mathews, Jessica T. (December 14, 2021). "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict". Foreign Affairs. 101 (January/February 2022).
Elbridge Colby
Elbridge A. Colby (2).jpg
Official portrait, 2025
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Assumed office
April 15, 2025 [1]