Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is a proposed method of solar geoengineering (or solar radiation modification) to reduce global warming. This would introduce aerosols into the stratosphere to create a cooling effect via global dimming and increased albedo, which occurs naturally from volcanic winter. [1] It appears that stratospheric aerosol injection, at a moderate intensity, could counter most changes to temperature and precipitation, take effect rapidly, have low direct implementation costs, and be reversible in its direct climatic effects. [2] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that it "is the most-researched [solar geoengineering] method that it could limit warming to below 1.5 °C (2.7 °F)." [3] However, like other solar geoengineering approaches, stratospheric aerosol injection would do so imperfectly and other effects are possible, [4] particularly if used in a suboptimal manner. [5]
Various forms of sulfur have been shown to cool the planet after large volcanic eruptions. [6] Re-entering satellites are polluting the stratosphere. [7] However, as of 2021, there has been little research and existing aerosols in the stratosphere are not well understood. [8] So there is no leading candidate material. Alumina, calcite and salt are also under consideration. [9] [10] The leading proposed method of delivery is custom aircraft. [11]
An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. [12] Aerosols can be generated from natural or human causes. The term aerosol commonly refers to the mixture of particulates in air, and not to the particulate matter alone. [13] Examples of natural aerosols are fog, mist or dust. Examples of human caused aerosols include particulate air pollutants, mist from the discharge at hydroelectric dams, irrigation mist, perfume from atomizers, smoke, dust, sprayed pesticides, and medical treatments for respiratory illnesses. [14]
Several types of atmospheric aerosol have a significant effect on Earth's climate: volcanic, desert dust, sea-salt, that originating from biogenic sources and human-made. Volcanic aerosol forms in the stratosphere after an eruption as droplets of sulfuric acid that can prevail for up to two years, and reflect sunlight, lowering temperature. Desert dust, mineral particles blown to high altitudes, absorb heat and may be responsible for inhibiting storm cloud formation. Human-made sulfate aerosols, primarily from burning oil and coal, affect the behavior of clouds. [15] When aerosols absorb pollutants, it facilitates the deposition of pollutants to the surface of the earth as well as to bodies of water. [16] This has the potential to be damaging to both the environment and human health.Sources of natural aerosols include oceans, volcanoes, deserts, and living organisms. [17] [18] The ocean produces aerosols in two main ways. First, when wind blows over waves, it creates spray made up mostly of sea salt. Second, tiny ocean organisms—such as plankton—release dimethyl sulfide and other gases into the air which, in turn, react with other substances in the atmosphere, including water vapor, to form gaseous sulfate (sulfuric acid) aerosols. Both sea salt and sulfate aerosols help to form clouds by acting as “seeds” for water droplets, affecting cloud formation and Earth's energy balance.. While these ocean aerosols are widespread, there is still uncertainty about exactly how much they affect the atmosphere.
Volcanic eruptions release ash and gases into the air. Although the falls out of the atmosphere relatively quickly, sulfur dioxide can rise into the stratosphere, where it reacts with water vapor to form long-lived sulfate aerosols in the upper atmosphere. These reflect sunlight and temporarily cool the planet. After a large eruption, these particles can stay in the air for a year or more.
Natural aerosols cool the Earth. [19] When large volcanic eruptions occur, they can cause short-term global cooling of around half a degree or more, depending on the size of the eruption. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 caused global temperatures to drop by about 0.5 degrees Celsius for up to three years. [20] These events have played an important role in past climate variability.
Human activities, especially fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, emit aerosols directly and indirectly via gases that react in the atmosphere. [21] Common anthropogenic aerosols include sulfates, nitrates, black carbon (soot), and organic carbon. Among these, sulfates are the dominant cooling agent. Organic carbon aerosols also reflect light, while black carbon absorbs it, warming the air and darkening snow and ice.
The net effect of anthropogenic aerosols has been to mask global warming. From 1850 to 2014, they reduced global average surface temperature by about 0.66°C. This cooling is stronger in the more populous Northern Hemisphere. This uneven effect has altered rainfall patterns, including a weakening of tropical monsoons.
Air pollution regulations have reduced sulfate emissions in Europe and North America since the 1980s, and more recently in China. These reductions have improved air quality but diminish the cooling influence of aerosols, contributing to accelerated warming.
Mikhail Budyko is believed to have been the first, in 1974, to put forth the concept of artificial solar radiation management with stratospheric sulfate aerosols if global warming ever became a pressing issue. [22] Such controversial climate engineering proposals for global dimming have sometimes been called a "Budyko Blanket". [23] [24] [25]
In 2009, a Russian team tested aerosol formation in the lower troposphere using helicopters. [26] In 2015, David Keith and Gernot Wagner described a potential field experiment, the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx), using stratospheric calcium carbonate [27] injection, [28] but as of October 2020 the time and place had not yet been determined. [29] [30] SCoPEx is in part funded by Bill Gates. [31] [32] Sir David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the government of the United Kingdom, stated that SCoPEX and Gates' plans to dim the sun with calcium carbonate could have disastrous effects. [33]
In 2012, the Bristol University-led Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) project planned on a limited field test to evaluate a potential delivery system. The group received support from the EPSRC, NERC and STFC to the tune of £2.1 million [34] and was one of the first UK projects aimed at providing evidence-based knowledge about solar radiation management. [34] Although the field testing was cancelled, the project panel decided to continue the lab-based elements of the project. [35] Furthermore, a consultation exercise was undertaken with members of the public in a parallel project by Cardiff University, with specific exploration of attitudes to the SPICE test. [36] This research found that almost all of the participants in the poll were willing to allow the field trial to proceed, but very few were comfortable with the actual use of stratospheric aerosols. A campaign opposing geoengineering led by the ETC Group drafted an open letter calling for the project to be suspended until international agreement is reached, [37] specifically pointing to the upcoming convention of parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2012. [38]
Various forms of sulfur were proposed as the injected substance, as this is in part how volcanic eruptions cool the planet. [6] Precursor gases such as sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide have been considered. According to estimates, "one kilogram of well placed sulfur in the stratosphere would roughly offset the warming effect of several hundred thousand kilograms of carbon dioxide." [39] One study calculated the impact of injecting sulfate particles, or aerosols, every one to four years into the stratosphere in amounts equal to those lofted by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, [40] but did not address the many technical and political challenges involved in potential solar geoengineering efforts. [41] Use of gaseous sulfuric acid appears to reduce the problem of aerosol growth. [11] Materials such as photophoretic particles, metal oxides (as in Welsbach seeding, and titanium dioxide), and diamond are also under consideration. [42] [43] [44]
Various techniques have been proposed for delivering the aerosol or precursor gases. [1] The required altitude to enter the stratosphere is the height of the tropopause, which varies from 11 kilometres (6.8 mi/36,000 ft) at the poles to 17 kilometers (11 mi/58,000 ft) at the equator.
The latitude and distribution of injection locations has been discussed by various authors. While a near-equatorial injection regime will allow particles to enter the rising leg of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, several studies have concluded that a broader, and higher-latitude, injection regime will reduce injection mass flow rates and/or yield climatic benefits. [49] [50] Concentration of precursor injection in a single longitude appears to be beneficial, with condensation onto existing particles reduced, giving better control of the size distribution of aerosols resulting. [51] The long residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may require a millennium-timescale commitment to aerosol injection [52] if aggressive emissions abatement is not pursued simultaneously.
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Welsbach seeding is a patented solar radiation modification method, involving seeding the stratosphere with small (10 to 100 micron) metal oxide particles (thorium dioxide, aluminium oxide). The purpose of the Welsbach seeding would be to "(reduce) atmospheric warming due to the greenhouse effect resulting from a greenhouse gases layer," by converting radiative energy at near-infrared wavelengths into radiation at far-infrared wavelengths, permitting some of the converted radiation to escape into space, thus cooling the atmosphere. The seeding as described would be performed by airplanes at altitudes between 7 and 13 kilometres.
The method was patented by Hughes Aircraft Company in 1991, US patent 5003186. [53] Quote from the patent: "This invention relates to a method for the reduction of global warming resulting from the greenhouse effect, and in particular to a method which involves the seeding of the earth's stratosphere with Welsbach-like materials." This is not considered to be a viable option by current geoengineering experts.[ citation needed ]
A study in 2020 looked at the cost of SAI through to the year 2100. It found that relative to other climate interventions and solutions, SAI remains inexpensive. However, at about $18 billion per year per degree Celsius of warming avoided (in 2020 USD), a solar geoengineering program with substantial climate impact would lie well beyond the financial reach of individuals, small states, or other non-state potential rogue actors. [54] The annual cost of delivering a sufficient amount of sulfur to counteract expected greenhouse warming is estimated at $5–10 billion US dollars. [54]
SAI is expected to have low direct financial costs of implementation, [55] relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.
Early studies suggest that stratospheric aerosol injection might have a relatively low direct cost. One analysis estimated the annual cost of delivering 5 million tons of an albedo enhancing aerosol to an altitude of 20 to 30 km is at US$2 billion to 8 billion, an amount which they suggest would be sufficient to offset the expected warming during the next century. [56] In comparison, the annual cost estimates for climate damage or emission mitigation range from US$200 billion to 2 trillion. [56]
A 2016 study found the cost per 1 W/m2 of cooling to be between 5–50 billion USD/yr. [57] Because larger particles are less efficient at cooling and drop out of the sky faster, the unit-cooling cost is expected to increase over time as increased dose leads to larger, but less efficient, particles by mechanism such as coalescence and Ostwald ripening. [58] Assume RCP8.5, -5.5 W/m2 of cooling would be required by 2100 to maintain 2020 climate. At the dose level required to provide this cooling, the net efficiency per mass of injected aerosols would reduce to below 50% compared to low-level deployment (below 1W/m2). [59] At a total dose of -5.5 W/m2, the cost would be between 55–550 billion USD/yr when efficiency reduction is also taken into account, bringing annual expenditure to levels comparable to other mitigation alternatives.
The advantages of this approach in comparison to other solar geoengineering methods include:
It is uncertain how effective any solar geoengineering technique would be, due to the difficulties modeling their impacts and the complex nature of the global climate system. Certain efficacy issues are specific to stratospheric aerosols.
Solar geoengineering in general poses various problems and risks. However, certain problems are specific to or more pronounced with stratospheric sulfide injection. [91]
Most of the existing governance of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is from that which is applicable to solar radiation management more broadly. However, some existing legal instruments would be relevant to stratospheric sulfate aerosols specifically. At the international level, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP Convention) obligates those countries which have ratified it to reduce their emissions of particular transboundary air pollutants. Notably, both solar radiation management and climate change (as well as greenhouse gases) could satisfy the definition of "air pollution" which the signatories commit to reduce, depending on their actual negative effects. [111] Commitments to specific values of the pollutants, including sulfates, are made through protocols to the CLRTAP Convention. Full implementation or large scale climate response field tests of stratospheric sulfate aerosols could cause countries to exceed their limits. However, because stratospheric injections would be spread across the globe instead of concentrated in a few nearby countries, and could lead to net reductions in the "air pollution" which the CLRTAP Convention is to reduce so they may be allowed.
The stratospheric injection of sulfate aerosols would cause the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer to be applicable due to their possible deleterious effects on stratospheric ozone. That treaty generally obligates its Parties to enact policies to control activities which "have or are likely to have adverse effects resulting from modification or likely modification of the ozone layer." [112] The Montreal Protocol to the Vienna Convention prohibits the production of certain ozone depleting substances, via phase outs. Sulfates are presently not among the prohibited substances.
In the United States, the Clean Air Act might give the United States Environmental Protection Agency authority to regulate stratospheric sulfate aerosols. [113]