A major tornado outbreak is currently ongoing through the Southern and Midwestern United States,beginning on April 1,2025. Several tornadoes have been reported and confirmed. On April 2,a tornado struck Owasso,Oklahoma,causing damage to homes.[2] A significant tornado struck Nevada,Missouri,removing roofs from homes and injuring at least one person.[3] An EF2 tornado struck Pilot Grove,Missouri,destroying a manufactured home and tossing cars. The tornado sirens in the town did not sound due to a malfunction,though no-one was hurt.[4] A large,multiple-vortex tornado moved through the city of Lake City in Arkansas,prompting the issuance of a tornado emergency.[5][6] At least one person was killed by a tornado that struck Advance and Delta in Missouri,leaving significant damage to homes.[7] In the early morning hours of April 3,the town of Selmer,Tennessee took a direct hit from a significant tornado,while another supercell produced a significant tornado near Slayden,Mississippi,prompting the issuance of another tornado emergency. Near La Grange,Tennessee,one person was killed and four others were injured when a tornado destroyed a mobile home.[8]
April 1 was denoted as having "potential too low" by the Storm Prediction Center on March 28,being explicitly described as "relative down day in terms of severe potential" while an upper-level system would be organizing for the next day.[9] However,on March 29,a 15% risk for severe weather was outlined over a small area of Nebraska,Iowa,Kansas,and Missouri,as the ECMWF model began showing a much stronger cyclone developing over the High Plains,resulting in the warm sector expanding further north and harboring higher atmospheric instability than the GFS model. The risk was introduced for the threat of isolated instances of hail with stronger storms that develop.[10]
On March 30,a larger risk area was outlined,including a larger portion of Iowa,northern Missouri,and western Illinois,as the threat of multiple instances of cyclogenesis fueling a threat for elevated convection,specifically producing large hail,would be present over a large warm front through the overnight hours.[11] The mid-day update expanded the slight risk into much of Oklahoma and parts of Texas and Arkansas due to a conditional severe threat through the overnight hours.[12]
The day before the event,multiple models had still been in disagreement over the extent of moisture over the Plains,but ensemble runs came to the solution that widespread dew points from the upper 50s to lower 60 degrees Fahrenheit were likely across the area;cooling in the middle levels of the atmosphere would lead to destabilization of the atmosphere,and strong mid-level lapse rates and forecasted hodographs were expected to focus on a primary risk for hail over Kansas and Nebraska,as well as from overnight elevated convection. Further south,a 5% risk for tornadoes was introduced over parts of Kansas,Missouri,and Oklahoma,as well as small parts of Arkansas and Texas,due to the conditional threat of supercell development before sunset potentially curtailed by cloud cover and a strong capping inversion.[13] As confidence increased in the presence of storms over east central Kansas,an Enhanced (3/5) risk was introduced in that day's mid-day outlook.[14]
Starting on March 28,2025,the Storm Prediction Center began monitoring the risk of a severe weather event on April 2. Following a lack of expected severe potential the previous day,strong moisture return and the development of an upper-level system was discussed,with a 15% risk for severe weather being outlined over much of the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.[9] The next day,as forecast models came into greater agreement about the mode and timing of the system,a 30% risk was introduced over parts of Arkansas,Missouri,Mississippi,Tennessee,Illinois,Indiana,and Ohio,with forecasters describing that confidence existed for "a widespread,potentially substantial severe event".[10] On March 30,the forecast was expanded to include parts of Texas,Louisiana,and Michigan in the risk area,as forecasted shear would support a primarily supercell-focused storm mode.[16]
Three days out from the event,on the morning of March 31,an enhanced (3/5) risk was outlined over an area overlapping the previous 30% zone,now also including small parts of Oklahoma,Iowa,and Alabama,while now covering the majority of Kentucky,Illinois,Arkansas,and Indiana. The system,now described as a negatively-tilted trough,was expected to produce a widespread outbreak of severe weather over the region. A large warm sector over the Great Lakes region,a powerful jet streak of 100kn (120mph;190km/h),and an intense cold front,were all expected to contribute to the event,with the forecast outlining the risk for significant tornadoes,strong wind,and large hail. A higher risk category for the forecast was discussed over the middle Mississippi Valley,fueled by the threat of "multiple long-lived significant supercells",but was ultimately decided against due to a lack of confidence in how the storm system would develop throughout the day.[17]
An outlook on April 1 introduced a moderate (4/5) risk over small parts of Mississippi,Arkansas,Tennessee,Missouri,Kentucky,Illinois,and Indiana,driven by the threat of "significant to intense tornadoes",as outlined in updated model guidance.[18] Due to significantly less uncertainty regarding the development of the storms,the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk (5/5) convective outlook over southern Illinois,eastern Missouri,western Kentucky and Tennessee,eastern Arkansas,and extreme northwest Mississippi for "multiple EF3+ tornadoes".[19]
Forecasts for April 4
The day prior to the outbreak,the Storm Prediction Center outlined an Enhanced (3/5) risk over much of Arkansas and bordering regions of Oklahoma,Texas,and Missouri,as a surface cyclone was forecasted to develop over northeastern Texas or southeastern Oklahoma,which would move to the northeast,moving a warm sector into much of Arkansas and into far southern Missouri. Diurnal heating,alongside a growingly unstable atmosphere,strong shear,and forecasted storm-relative helicity values of 400m2s2 over the region,were forecasted to support supercells,potentially producing strong tornadoes. Elevated convection along a cold front moving over Texas was also forecasted to pose a threat for large hail.[20] A second outlook that day outlined a Moderate (4/5) risk over much of the same regions,with forecasters now outlining MLCAPE instability values between 2500 and 3500 j/kg over a frontal zone,which was expected to develop strong supercells capable of potentially strong tornadoes as the evening progressed. A conditional threat for strong,long-tracked tornadoes was also outlined ahead of the frontal zone. Despite weak forcing ahead of the frontal zone,strong MUCAPE instability values of 3000 to 4000 j/kg were forecasted to be conducive to the threat of discrete supercell development and the hazard of intense to violent tornadoes.[21]
April 2
A mid-level trough was positioned over the central United States and will move northeastward,while at the surface,a strong surface cyclone will move through the upper Mississippi Valley,accompanied by a jet streak ejection of 120 knots (140mph;220km/h),while a cold front moves through much of the region. A moist airmass will move into the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley region,which is expected to rapidly destabilize throughout the day while convection along the cold front remains ongoing. MLCAPE,a measure of atmospheric instability,is expected to reach 2500–3500 J/kg in the middle Mississippi Valley,while a rapid ejection of the mid-level jet will bring strong ascent into the warm sector,which will be conducive to intense storm development. The initiation of discrete storms is expected to occur east of the cold front inside of an unstable airmass,a region expected to,around 4 to 7p.m. CDT,harbor around 400m2s2 of storm-relative helicity in the first 3 kilometers of the atmosphere,alongside deep-layer shear of 60knots. These conditions will be conducive to the development of discrete tornadic supercells,the strongest of which were expected to be capable of producing intense (EF3–EF5) tornadoes. Multiple intense tornadoes were forecasted throughout the evening. More supercells,potentially producing tornadoes,were outlined as a risk in the southern Ozarks and lower Ohio River valley.[22]
More supercells,focused on the threat of strong winds exceeding 70mph (110km/h) and large hail exceeding 2in (5.1cm) were expected to develop in the region extending from Texas through the Great Lakes region,which were expected to develop bowing line segments producing further severe wind gusts as storms develop. Atmospheric recovery across the Red River valley in Texas may support further supercells producing large hail after the main event concludes in the region.[22]
Development of storms
Linear convection from the previous day persisted after midnight,with embedded supercells within the line posing a threat for tornadic activity due to the strongly sheared and destabilizing atmosphere over parts of Kansas and Missouri.[23] At 2a.m.,a surface-based cold front was still present,positioned from central Kansas towards Texas' southern plains,moving southeast. As moisture entered central Oklahoma,fueled by a strong southwesterly jet and steep mid-level lapse rates,the capped environment would erode,which would create an environment conducive towards surface convection,including supercells capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.[24] Later on,at 4:30a.m.,as the line had migrated further east ahead of the cold front,forecasters noted that the potential for embedded supercells capable of wind,hail,and tornadoes,was increasing over much of Missouri and bordering regions of Kansas,Arkansas,and Oklahoma.[25] Shortly before 7:00a.m.,storms had been moving across Oklahoma,with a storm in the northeastern part of the state attaining a super cellular structure,producing a brief tornadic debris signature in the vicinity of Tulsa and Rogers counties. The line of storms moved parallel to the cold front into a region with an atmospheric capping inversion,which reduced the threat of further organization.[26] Over central Missouri,a "somewhat messy storm mode" near the cold front moved towards an area marked by a relatively stable and capped atmosphere,which reduced the risk of severe hazards by 7:17a.m.[27]
Elevated storms had developed over parts of Ohio and Illinois,which produced a minor threat for hail and damaging winds throughout the later morning hours[28][29] Further south,in northeastern Texas and surrounding areas,storms had begun forming on a pre-frontal confluence in an area with a minor capping inversion and moderate instability levels around 2500j/kg. As these storms developed,the hazard of hail and strong tornadoes was noted by forecasters,despite the uncertainty of timing and ability to overcome the cap.[30]
This high-end EF0 tornado touched down in an open field, causing minor damage to power poles, trees, and small outbuildings along its path. The tornado then damaged empty grain bins and some trees before lifting.[32]
Eight train cars were knocked over, a few homes had roof damage, numerous businesses suffered varying degrees of damage and widespread tree damage occurred.[33]
The tornado began southwest of Pilot Grove, causing minor damage to an outbuilding before traveling northeast into town. It caused roof damage to homes, destroyed a manufactured home, and uprooted trees onto another home. The tornado intensified to low-end EF2 strength near a newly built barndominium, severely damaging it, and then causing widespread damage to homes, outbuildings, and power poles. The tornado weakened as it moved northward, with limited damage observed near I-70, where it dissipated.[34]
This tornado touched down south of Berryman and moved northeastward, causing mainly minor EF0 tree damage as it approached Route 8. As the tornado approached Floyd, it intensified to EF1 intensity, snapping trees. It also inflicted minor damage to mobile homes, snapped a power pole, and damaged more trees. The tornado then rapidly intensified and reached high-end EF3 intensity as it crossed Route 185 between Ebo and Latty, leveling a home. Another home nearby suffered low-end EF3 damage with the entire top half of the home removed and multiple exterior walls knocked down, and trees and power poles were snapped. The tornado then quickly weakened to EF1 intensity before gradually weakening as it continued northeastward, snapping trees and tree branches before dissipating. [35][36]
This tornado initially touched down near Pierron, heavily damaging or destroying multiple outbuildings at EF1 intensity. Moving northeastward the tornado intensified to high-end EF1 strength northeast of the town, snapping numerous trees before further intensifying to high-end EF2 strength south of Stubblefield. Mobile homes were destroyed, a home with only interior walls standing, multiple garages were destroyed, and more trees were snapped. Other outbuildings suffered moderate damage, and another home also suffered minor damage. The tornado then weakened significantly to EF0 strength and passed south of Greenville, snapping tree branches and inflicting minor damage to homes and outbuildings as it continued northeastward past Smithboro. Northwest of Mulberry Grove, the tornado restrengthened to EF1 intensity, destroying multiple outbuildings. The tornado then steadily weakened after that, causing only very minor tree damage before dissipating near Shafter. One person was injured. Preliminary information.[35][36]
1 death – A strong tornado caused significant damage to numerous structures, including in the community of Delta. It snapped power poles and snapped or uprooted trees as well.[40]
A high-end EF1 tornado struck New Goshen, ripping most roofing off many structures. A large garage was heavily damaged, with some of its walls entirely picked up and tossed.[42]
A strong tornado caused damage to several barns and outbuildings, including one barn that was completely destroyed. Two churches suffered significant damage, severely injuring a family inside one of the structures. Trees and power poles were damaged.[44]
One barn was destroyed and three others lost their roofs. One silo was destroyed and another was damaged. A home sustained roof and gutter damage. Trees were snapped, and power poles were downed.[50]
A large,multiple-vortex wedge tornado of at least EF3 intensity prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency as it passed near Lake City late on April 2. The tornado initially formed east of Jonesboro. It tracked northeast,destroying five homes and narrowly missing the city of Monette. The Westside Consolidated School District reported that one of its facilities had sustained damage from the storms,and therefore cancelled classes the day following the tornado.[6] The Fox Forecast Center,part of FOX Weather,stated that winds in the tornado likely exceeded 200mph (320km/h),based on video by storm chaser Brandon Copic of electrical transformers exploding.[51] This area had previously been hit by an EF4 tornado in December 2021.[52]
A large and destructive wedge tornado struck the towns of Slayden,Mississippi and Grand Junction,Tennessee,prompting the issuance of the second tornado emergency of the outbreak early on April 3. Debris was reportedly lofted 20,000 feet (6,100m) into the air.[53]
A large tornado of at least EF3 intensity prompted the issuance of a PDS tornado warning as it struck the city of Selmer,killing at least one person.[54]
Non-tornadic effects
Winter storm
In La Moure,North Dakota,a COCORAHS observer reported a 48-hour snowfall total of 12in (30cm) between April 2 and 3.[55]
↑ National Weather Service in Springfield, Missouri (April 2, 2025). NWS Damage Survey for 04/02/2025 Tornado (Report). Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
↑ National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas (April 3, 2025). Public Information Statement (Report). Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
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