2023 Pakistani general election

2023 Pakistani general election

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All 336 seats in the National Assembly 169 seats needed for a majority
Leader Imran Khan Shehbaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari Party PTI PML(N) PPP Last election 31.82%, 149 seats 24.35%, 82 seats 13.03%, 54 seats Seats needed 20 87 115
Map of Pakistan with National Assembly constituencies
Incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif PML(N)

General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 90 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which was prematurely dissolved on 10 August 2023 by President Arif Alvi on the advice of the Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This means that the election must be held no later than 8 November 2023. ^{[1] [2]} However, on 5 August 2023, the results of the 2023 digital census were approved by the Council of Common Interests headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Therefore, elections will be delayed for several months, as new delimitations will be published on 14 December 2023, as announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). ^{[3] [4]}

The three major parties are Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) led by incumbent prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led by incumbent Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Background

2018 elections

Further information: 2018 Pakistani general election

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.

Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N. ^{[5] [6]} The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices. ^{[7] [8] [9]} However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election. ^[10] Some ^[11] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after. ^[12] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q). ^[13]

Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free. ^{[14] [15] [16]} A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls. ^[17] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013. ^{[18] [19]}

Electoral system

The 336 members of the National Assembly consist of 266 general seats elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies, ^[20] 60 seats reserved for women elected by proportional representation based on the number of general seats won by each party in each province, and ten seats reserved for non-Muslims elected through proportional representation based on the number of overall general seats won by each party.

The government had passed a bill that required the next general elections to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This was aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have plagued previous elections in Pakistan, but the opposition's opinion was that it would make it extremely easy for PTI to rig the elections in their favour through security loopholes. ^[21] In 2022 when the PTI-led government was ousted through a successful vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly, the 11 opposition parties, some of them being long-time rivals, formed a new government and passed the Elections Amendment Bill, which nullified the use of EVMs in the next general elections. Hence, EVMs will not be used in next general elections.

Timeline

In July 2023, the ECP invited political parties to submit applications for the allocation of electoral symbols. ^[22]

Parties

Further information: List of political parties in Pakistan

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.

Name			Claimed ideology(ies)	Leader	Voteshare in 2018	General seats won in 2018	Total seats in the 15th National Assembly
	PTI	Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف	Populism Islamic democracy Welfarism Anti-corruption Civic nationalism	Imran Khan	31.82%	116 / 272	149 / 342
	PML(N)	Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)	Conservatism Economic liberalism Federalism	Shehbaz Sharif	24.35%	64 / 272	82 / 342
	PPP	Pakistan Peoples Party پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی	Social democracy Secularism Nationalization Democratic socialism	Bilawal Bhutto Zardari	13.03%	43 / 272	54 / 342
	JUI-F	Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) جمیعت علماءِ اسلام (ف)	Islamism Conservatism	Fazl-ur-Rahman	4.85%	11 / 272	14 / 342
	JI	Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan جماعت اسلامی پاکستان	Islamism Social conservatism	Siraj ul Haq		1 / 272	1 / 342
	MQM(P)	Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان)	Liberalism Social liberalism Social democracy Muhajir nationalism Secularism	Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui	1.38%	6 / 272	7 / 342
	TLP	Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan تحریک لبیک پاکستان	Islamism	Saad Hussain Rizvi	4.21%	0 / 272	0 / 342
	GDA	Grand Democratic Alliance گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس	Regionalism	Pir Pagaro	2.37%	2 / 272	3 / 342
	ANP	Awami National Party عوامی نيشنل پارٹی	Pashtun nationalism Democratic socialism Secularism	Asfandyar Wali Khan	1.54%	1 / 272	1 / 342
	PML(Q)	Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam) پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم)	Conservatism Pakistani nationalism	Shujaat Hussain	0.97%	4 / 272	5 / 342
	BAP	Balochistan Awami Party بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی	Federalism Islamic democracy	Abdul Quddus Bizenjo	0.60%	4 / 272	5 / 342
	BNP(M)	Balochistan National Party (Mengal) بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل)	Baloch nationalism Democratic socialism Secularism	Akhtar Mengal	0.45%	3 / 272	4 / 342
	AML	Awami Muslim League Pakistan عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان	Islamism Populism	Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad	0.22%	1 / 272	1 / 342
	JWP	Jamhoori Wattan Party جمہوری وطن پارٹی	Baloch nationalism	Nawabzada Shahzain Bugti	0.04%	1 / 272	1 / 342

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Pakistani general election

In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

In August 2023, the ECP imposed a total ban on entrance and exit polls including those on official digital media accounts of electronic and print media outlets. ^[23]

National Assembly voting intention

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	MMA [lower-alpha 1]	TLP	Other	Ind.	Lead	Margin of error	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters [lower-alpha 2]
NA	10 August 2023	The National Assembly is dissolved by President Arif Alvi on the advice of Shehbaz Sharif. [24]
N/A	5 August 2023	Khan is arrested after an Islamabad trial court finds him guilty of "corrupt practices" and sentences him to three years in prison. He is technically disqualified from holding public office for five years. [25]
N/A	9-12 May 2023	Khan is arrested for his alleged role in the Al-Qadir Trust case, triggering protests, and is then released. [26] [27]
Iris Communications	5 April 2023	PDF	45%	22%	13%	2%	6%	13%		23%	N/A	3,000	12%
2022 By-Elections	16 October 2022		49.6%	13.1%	12.4%	7.0%	3.8%	5.5%		36.5%	N/A	1,179,656	13,440
PA	17 July 2022	PTI wins Punjab provincial by-election
IPOR (IRI)	3 June 2022	PDF	39%	33%	12%	7%	4%	5%		6%	±2 - 3%	2,003	25%
NA	11 April 2022	Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
	10 April 2022	Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI)	21 March 2022	PDF	35%	33%	19%	6%	4%	3%		2%	±2 - 3%	3,509	16%
Gallup Pakistan	31 January 2022	PDF	34%	33%	15%	6%	3%	9%		1%	±3 - 5%	5,688	33%
IPOR (IRI)	9 January 2022	PDF	31%	33%	17%	3%	3%	11%	1%	2%	±2 - 3%	3,769	11%
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	36%	38%	13%	4%	3%	6%		2%	±3.22%	2,003	32%
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	33%	38%	15%	3%	3%	8%		5%	±2.95%	2,024	26%
IPOR (IRI)	30 June 2020	PDF	24%	27%	11%	3%	2%	33%		3%	±2.38%	1,702	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	31%	28%	15%	5%	21%			3%	±3 - 5%	~1,400	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	43%	27%	15%	1%	1%	11%	1%	16%	±2.05%	3,991	22%
NA	17 August 2018	Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	31.8%	24.3%	13.0%	4.8%	4.2%	10.3%	11.5%	7.5%	N/A	53,123,733	N/A

Punjab

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PML(N)	PPP	TLP	Other	Ind.	Lead	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters [lower-alpha 2]
Iris Communications	5 April 2023	PDF	51%	35%	6%	6%	3%		16%	N/A	11%
PA	14 January 2023	The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called.
Oct 2022 By-elections	16 October 2022		49.0%	42.5%		7.0%	1.5%		6.3%	351,267	6,483
Jul 2022 By-elections	17 July 2022	[28]	46.8%	39.5%		5.54%	7.85%		7.3%	2,240,465	1.59
NA	11-12 April 2022	Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI)	21 March 2022	PDF	34%	42%	6%	2%	16%		8%	~1,900	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan	31 January 2022	PDF	35%	43%	7%	3%	9%	3%	8%	~3,100	31%
IPOR (IRI)	9 January 2022	PDF	31%	46%	5%	3%	15%		15%	2,035	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	26%	39%	5%	2%	27%	1%	13%	1,089	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	33.6%	31.7%	5.4%	5.7%	4.8%	18.8%	1.9%	33,218,101	N/A

Sindh

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	PPP	MQM(P)	MMA	Other	Ind.	Lead	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters [lower-alpha 2]
PA	11 August 2023	The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Kamran Tessori on the advice of Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah. [29]
Iris Communications	5 April 2023	PDF	29.5%	34.1%	10.2%	26.1%			4.6%	3,000	12%
Sindh By-elections	16 October 2022		50.0%	25.6%	12.5%	0.15	11.8%		24.4%	146,470	1,493
NA-245 By-election	21 August 2022	[30]	48.85%	21.87%			23.51	5.77	26.98%	60,760	0.70%
NA	11-12 April 2022	Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI)	21 March 2022	PDF	17%	44%	5%	34%			27%	~810	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan	31 January 2022	PDF	30%	34%	3%	3%	28%	2%	4%	~1,300	39%
IPOR (IRI)	9 January 2022	PDF	13%	44%	7%	36%			31%	867	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	13%	22%	1%	3%	61%		9%	467	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	14.5%	38.4%	7.7%	6.1%	25.9%	7.4%	23.6%	10,025,437	N/A

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PTI	MMA	ANP	PML(N)	PPP	Other	Ind.	Lead	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters [lower-alpha 2]
Iris Communications	5 April 2023	PDF	58.4%	9.0%	10.1%	10.1%	12.4%			48.3%	3,000	11%
PA	18 January 2023	The Provincial Assembly is dissolved and a provincial snap election is called.
KPK By-elections	16 October 2022		53.3%	41.9%				4.8%		11.4%	445,604	6,994
PK-7 By-election	26 June 2022	[31]	52%	44%				2%		8%	33,573	2%
NA-33 By Election	17 April 2022		48.8%	42.8%				8.4%		6%	43,148	537
NA	11-12 April 2022	Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI)	21 March 2022	PDF	38%	23%	8%	13%	8%	10%		15%	~600	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
Gallup Pakistan	31 January 2022	PDF	44%	13%	6%	21%	8%	7%	1%	23%	~970	28%
IPOR (IRI)	9 January 2022	PDF	44%	17%	11%	11%	7%	10%		27%	641	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
IPOR (IRI)	11 November 2020	PDF	34%	8%	3%	12%	4%	26%		21%	331	N/A [lower-alpha 3]
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	39.3%	18.9%	9.3%	10.7%	7.5%	3.5%	10.8%	20.4%	6,611,287	N/A

Balochistan

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	BNP	PTI	NP	BAP	MMA	Other	Ind.	Lead	Sample size	Undecideds & Non-voters [lower-alpha 2]
PA	12 August 2023	The Provincial Assembly is dissolved by Governor Abdul Wali Kakar on the advice of Chief Minister Abdul Quddus Bizenjo. [32]
Iris Communications	5 April 2023	PDF	21.0%	16.0%	16.0%	11.1%	35.8%			5%	3,000	19%
2018 Elections	25 July 2018	ECP	9.04%	6.05%	4.91%	24.44%	15.28	23.33%	16.95%	9.16%	1,899,565	82,178

Government approval rating

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the federal government in Islamabad or the Prime Minister’s overall performance since 18 August 2018.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Approve	Neutral	Disapprove	DK/NA	Strongly approve	Approve	Neutral	Disapprove	Strongly disapprove	DK/NA	Net	Margin of error	Sample size
Gallup Pakistan	21 February 2023		32%	N/A	65%	3%	11%	21%	N/A	27%	38%	3%	-33%	±3 - 5%	1,760
NA	11 April 2022	Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
	10 April 2022	Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
Gallup Pakistan	4 April 2022	PDF	46%	N/A	54%	N/A	N/A						-8%	±3 - 5%	~800
Gallup Pakistan	31 January 2022	PDF	36%	14%	48%	3%	15%	21%	14%	18%	30%	3%	-12%	±3 - 5%	5,688
Gallup Pakistan	4 September 2021	PDF	48%	N/A	45%	7%	N/A						+3%	±3 - 5%	~1,200
Gallup Pakistan	19 August 2020	PDF	38%	30%	31%	2%	22%	16%	30%	13%	18%	2%	+7%	±3 - 5%	1,662
IPOR (IRI)	13 August 2020	PDF	38%	N/A	54%	7%	16%	22%	N/A	17%	37%	7%	-16%	±2.18%	2,024
Gallup Pakistan	15 February 2020	PDF	32%	N/A	66%	1%	8%	24%	N/A	19%	47%	1%	-34%	±3 - 5%	1,208
Gallup Pakistan	30 September 2019	PDF	45%	N/A	53%	2%	15%	32%	N/A	16%	37%	2%	-8%	±3 - 5%	1,237
Gallup Pakistan	24 June 2019	PDF	45%	N/A	53%	2%	21%	24%	N/A	32%	21%	2%	-8%	±3 - 5%	~1,400
Gallup Pakistan	29 December 2018	PDF	51%	N/A	46%	3%	13%	38%	N/A	26%	20%	3%	+5%	±2 - 3%	~1,141
IPOR (IRI)	1 December 2018	PDF	47%	N/A	27%	26%	17%	30%	N/A	18%	9%	26%	+20%	±2.17%	2,041
Pulse Consultant	28 November 2018	HTML	51%	N/A	30%	19%	N/A						+21%	±2.07%	2,019
IPOR (IRI)	22 November 2018	PDF	56%	N/A	40%	5%	16%	40%	N/A	28%	12%	5%	+16%	±2.05%	3,991

See also

• 2023 Punjab provincial election
• 2023 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial election
• 2023 Sindh provincial election
• 2023 Balochistan provincial election

Notes

1. Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
2. This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
3. This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References

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