Electorate opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Last updated

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2025 Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives.

Contents

Australian Capital Territory

Bean

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.1%29.1%15.7%11.9%4%1.3%59.5%40.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36%32.9%12.9%11%6.2%1%55.2%44.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—38%33%21%——8%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%32%18%——11%62%38%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—41%30%17%——12%63%37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.7%29.7%14.8%8.2%2.7%2.9%63%37%

Canberra

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP GRN
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.9%25.1%21.3%9.9%2.6%1.2%59.8%40.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—41.4%24.6%21.4%8%3.7%0.8%64.3%35.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—48%26%19%——7%67%33%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%19%24%——12%66%34%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—44%26%23%——7%62%38%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.9%24.7%21.8%5.2%1.7%1.8%62.2%37.8%

Fenner

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.5%28.7%18.5%5.6%4.6%2.1%61.1%38.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—42.2%30%15.1%6.2%5.3%1.1%59.8%40.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—37%31%16%——16%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%34%13%——13%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—45%29%19%——7%66%34%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48.3%27.8%16.8%2.7%—4.4%65.7%34.3%

New South Wales

Banks

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.2%32.2%10.7%6.2%4.8%3.9%52.5%47.5%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—44.4%29.9%10.5%6.3%6.7%2.1%54.8%45.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%32%7%——12%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—49%33%5%——14%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 45.2%35.3%8.8%2.9%1%6.9%53.2%46.8%

Barton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.9%32.3%13.5%8.1%3.9%3.2%56.3%43.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—38.5%33.8%13.2%6.8%5.8%1.9%55.4%44.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%33%14%——13%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—45%36%8%——11%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 50.4%26.2%12.5%4.8%—6.1%65.5%34.5%

Bennelong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.7%31%12.8%4.4%5.2%5.8%48.6%51.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.8%29.4%11.2%6.3%5.9%3.4%45.4%54.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—46%33%13%——8%46%54%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%36%11%——12%49%51%
21 May 2022 Election 41.4%37.7%11.4%1.7%—7.8%51%49%

Berowra

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—44.1%23.8%14.8%4.8%8.4%4%55.8%44.2%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—48.4%24%12.6%4.9%8.4%1.6%58.7%41.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%29%10%——13%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—48%28%11%——13%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 49.1%22.2%15.6%3.2%2.9%7%59.8%40.2%

Blaxland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.1%30.5%12%10.1%3.8%4.5%56.5%43.5%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.1%29.9%14.2%8.1%5.8%2.9%57.7%42.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%35%10%——13%56%44%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%31%10%——18%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 55%27%6.4%5.4%—6.3%64.9%35.1%

Bradfield

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.4%27.7%20.4%8.8%3.1%0.7%50.1%49.9%
3 Feb 2025Climate 200 [6] 1,047±3%40%—————48%52%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——43%———————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—41.7%23.9%19.7%10.1%4.1%0.5%51.9%48.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—47%—16%6%—32%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—50%—16%6%—27%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—51%—22%11%—15%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.1%24%17.5%9.3%1.6%2.6%54.2%45.8%

Calare

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
NAT IND ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.2%21%16%13.3%6.7%0.8%56.2%43.8%
22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—46.2%18.1%15.1%13.0%6.8%0.7%59.7%40.3%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——33%———————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—53%—23%—6%18%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—47%—20%—4%29%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—46%—18%—8%28%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47.7%20.4%15.1%8.4%4.6%3.8%59.7%40.3%

Chifley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.3%29.3%9.8%11.4%4.9%3.3%58.2%41.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.5%27.8%10.2%9.9%6.5%2%59.4%40.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%34%—9%—16%54%46%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%30%—13%—13%59%41%
21 May 2022 Election 52.7%24.7%6.2%5.8%1.9%8.7%63.5%36.5%

Cook

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP GRN
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—49.4%25.1%10.1%8.2%4.2%2.9%60.2%39.8%—
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—52.5%23.9%8.4%8.2%5.7%1.4%62.9%37.1%—
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—55%25%6%——14%63%37%—
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—57%25%6%——12%64%36%—
13 Apr 2024 2024 by-election 62.7%—16.5%—5.7%15.2%71.3%—28.8%
21 May 2022 Election 55.3%25%9.9%5.1%—4.5%62.4%37.6%—

Cowper

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT IND ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.6%29.8%15.3%11.1%7.5%0.7%48.4%51.6%
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [6] 980±3%35%—————47%53%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——42%———————
22 Jan - 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—37.1%25.1%16.8%12.8%7.2%1.1%50.9%49.1%
29 Oct - 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%—26%—5%26%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—38%—23%—11%28%47%53%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—37%—18%—9%36%48%52%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.5%26.3%14%8.1%5.9%6.3%52.3%47.7%

Cunningham

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.2%27.3%19.7%7.3%5.1%3.3%60%40%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.5%29.4%17.8%7.6%5.8%1.8%58.4%41.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%28%16%——12%63%37%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%29%16%——14%60%40%
21 May 2022 Election 40.1%25%21.7%5.1%—8.1%64.7%35.3%

Dobell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.6%34.7%10.9%11.8%4.5%2.7%52.1%47.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.6%34.7%9%13.4%6.4%2%50.7%49.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%38%7%——14%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%34%13%——15%51%49%
21 May 2022 Election 42.9%33.7%8.6%7.5%—7.4%56.5%43.5%

Eden-Monaro

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—32.6%35.8%10.8%9%7%4.6%50.7%49.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—30.4%37%9.8%10.6%8.9%3.3%48.4%51.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—39%37%7%——17%54%46%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%38%7%——19%53%47%
21 May 2022 Election 42.6%33%9.2%4.3%2%8.9%58.2%41.8%

Farrer

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—48.5%18.9%9.5%13.1%7.2%2.8%63.6%36.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—49.5%19.5%9%10.5%9.2%2.2%63.5%36.5%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—47%17%9%——27%65%35%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—51%19%7%——23%66%34%
21 May 2022 Election 52.3%19%9.1%6.3%3.2%10.2%66.4%33.7%

Fowler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP IND LIB GRN ONP OTH IND ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—31.6%26.9%23.1%9.7%7.3%1.5%52.7%47.3%—
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—32.1%22%26.9%11.9%5.4%1.6%—55.8%44.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—22%—23%7%—47%66%34%—
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—26%—27%7%—40%61%—39%
21 May 2022 Election 36.1%29.5%17.2%4.9%3.6%8.9%51.6%48.4%—

Gilmore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.8%31.7%10.6%9.8%8%1.1%49.1%50.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.6%29.3%9.5%12.1%8.3%1.3%47.2%52.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%32%6%——17%45%55%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%29%9%——18%44%56%
21 May 2022 Election 42%36%10.2%4.2%4%3.6%50.2%49.8%

Grayndler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP GRN
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—44.5%23.4%19.1%6.5%3.9%2.6%63%37%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—46.9%21.7%19.4%5.8%4.7%1.5%63.8%36.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%21%25%——6%66%34%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—46%26%20%——7%63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 53.6%22%16%2.1%1.5%4.7%67.1%33%

Greenway

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.6%35.6%11%6.2%6.6%3%53.8%46.2%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.9%37%10.6%7.4%8.3%1.9%51.4%48.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%41%8%——11%52%48%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—42%37%8%——13%55%45%
21 May 2022 Election 48.3%29.8%7.1%2.7%1.6%10.6%61.5%38.5%

Hughes

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.5%24.4%17.2%10.4%5.8%2.7%53.9%46.1%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.3%24.5%15.4%8.9%7.4%1.4%56.3%43.7%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%31%—10%—16%53%47%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%35%—8%—13%51%49%
21 May 2022 Election 43.5%22.5%17.5%6.3%2.7%7.4%57%43%

Hume

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.8%22.3%11.8%7.7%12.8%2.7%59.1%40.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—46.7%20.2%11.8%11.6%8.2%1.6%61.9%38.1%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%24%——5%23%60%40%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%27%——6%23%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 43.1%19.9%16.4%7.4%5%8.3%57.7%42.3%

Hunter

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP NAT ONP GRN IND OTH ALP NAT
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.2%30.8%16.2%10.2%7.3%2.2%52.2%47.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—30.6%33.5%15.3%8.7%9.7%2.2%49.1%50.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—31%30%—9%—30%49%51%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%31%—8%—25%51%49%
21 May 2022 Election 38.5%27.4%10%8.9%7.5%7.7%54%46%

Kingsford Smith

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.5%29.9%16%5.4%5.1%2%60.1%39.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.8%31.8%15.6%5.4%5.9%1.4%58.1%41.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%35%16%——9%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%33%17%——10%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 47.9%28.7%16.8%3.1%—3.5%64.5%35.5%

Lindsay

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—43.2%28.8%10.3%9.6%4.8%3.2%55.4%44.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.3%28.5%9.5%11.9%5.1%1.7%56.4%43.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%29%7%——16%59%41%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—48%28%9%——15%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 46.7%31.7%8%5.9%—7.6%56.3%43.7%

Lyne

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.1%20.9%14%8.3%12.9%2.8%58.9%41.1%
Late February 2025Climate 200 [6] 867±3%39%———————
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—44.7%20.2%12%7.9%12.5%2.7%61%39%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%22%—8%—30%62%38%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—39%20%—11%—30%62%38%
21 May 2022 Election 43.5%21.5%7.9%7.9%10.5%8.8%63.8%36.2%

Macarthur

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35%33.4%12.2%11.6%4.8%3%52.6%47.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.6%33.1%12.8%9.9%4.9%1.7%53.2%46.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—32%41%—12%—15%48%52%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%35%—15%—12%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 45.9%30.5%8%7.7%—7.9%58.5%41.5%

Mackellar

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
5–7 March 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.7%34%14.2%8.1%3.5%0.5%51.6%48.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.7%34.5%13.6%8.9%4.8%0.4%53.8%46.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%—13%3%—40%49%51%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—43%—11%7%—39%53%47%
5 February 2024uComms [b] [10] 602±3.85%35.3%30.4%13.2%5.8%—4.5%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 41.4%38.1%8.3%6.1%2.7%3.5%52.5%47.5%

Macquarie

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—32.7%36.5%12.7%10.1%5.7%2.6%50.6%49.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.3%37.2%9.5%10.9%6.3%1.8%49.9%50.1%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—35%39%8%——18%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—30%37%19%——13%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 43%34.6%9.6%5.2%—7.7%57.8%42.2%

McMahon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
9 Apr 2025 (released)Compass Polling [11] [12] 1,003—19%20%——41%———
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.8%33.6%9.6%8.3%5.2%5.5%54%46%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—37.7%34.1%9.4%8.6%6.6%3.6%53.5%46.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%36%11%——12%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%35%8%——12%56%44%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—44%32%8%——17%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 48%28.3%5.8%5.4%—12.4%59.5%40.5%

Mitchell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—50.1%23.9%12.8%5.3%3.6%4.3%60%40%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—53.3%23.5%10.8%4.9%5.9%1.6%62.1%37.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—56%25%10%——9%63%37%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—55%25%10%——10%63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 52.6%25.5%11.8%3%—7.1%60.7%39.3%

New England

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND GRN ONP OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—46%19.7%11%8.5%13.1%1.7%61.9%38.1%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—46.9%18.4%13.9%9%10.3%1.4%62.2%37.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—46%19%—8%—27%64%36%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%17%—5%—37%64%35%
21 May 2022 Election 52.5%18.6%10.7%7.7%4.7%5.9%66.4%33.6%

Newcastle

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.2%25.8%19.8%8.1%5.3%2.9%61.2%38.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—41.1%26.7%17.1%8.4%5.1%1.6%61.1%38.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%26%19%——11%63%37%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%28%15%——15%63%37%
21 May 2022 Election 44.1%24.4%20.1%4.5%—6.9%68%32%

Page

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND GRN ONP OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.9%20.7%14.5%9.7%10.7%2.5%58.2%41.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.1%18.1%16.2%10.2%10.1%2.4%59.4%40.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%22%—10%—24%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—42%21%—9%—28%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 45.6%18.7%13.1%8.5%5.4%8.7%60.7%39.3%

Parkes

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—46.5%18.5%16.2%7%6.4%5.3%64.3%35.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—47.5%19.4%15.3%7.1%7.3%3.5%64.3%35.7%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%19%—5%—33%67%33%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—43%18%—5%—33%67%33%
21 May 2022 Election 49.3%20.2%7.5%4.7%2.5%15.8%67.8%32.2%

Parramatta

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.837.3%12.6%5.1%5.8%3.5%52.6%47.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34%38.1%12.5%5.2%8.1%2.1%51.3%48.7%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%36%14%——10%52%48%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%40%9%——11%52%48%
21 May 2022 Election 40.7%35%9%2.4%—13%54.6%45.4%

Paterson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB ONP GRN IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36%37.2%11.8%9.3%3.9%1.9%50.6%49.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—31.3%38.9%14.1%7.4%6.8%2.5%46.4%53.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—34%45%—14%—7%46%54%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—32%42%—9%—17%46%54%
21 May 2022 Election 40.7%36.7%8.2%7.6%—6.9%53.3%46.7%

Reid

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.3%38.5%12.9%5.8%5.7%2.7%51.3%48.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.8%38.3%11.8%8%5.1%1.8%51.5%48.5%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%44%7%——9%50%50%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%39%16%——7%55%45%
21 May 2022 Election 41.6%37.9%9.4%3.1%2%6%55.2%44.8%

Richmond

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN NAT IND ONP OTH ALP NAT
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—26.1%19.4%28.4%9.4%10.4%6.3%53.7%46.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—25.4%22.7%31.3%9.2%5.6%5.7%53.4%46.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—36%21%27%——17%60%40%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—31%18%22%——29%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 28.8%25.3%23.4%5.6%4.1%12.9%58.2%41.8%

Riverina

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.6%20.9%16.8%8.6%6.2%4.9%60.8%39.2%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—44.6%21.6%13.4%8.5%7.2%4.7%60.8%39.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%23%—10%—26%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—45%26%—7%—22%59%41%
21 May 2022 Election 46.6%20.5%8.2%6.4%—15.6%64.9%35.2%

Robertson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.4%32.5%11.8%7.5%7.1%2.6%50.1%49.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.6%32.2%9.4%9.1%7.9%1.9%48.1%51.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%33%10%——12%47%53%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—43%33%11%——13%49%51%
21 May 2022 Election 40%37.7%10%3.8%—8.5%52.3%47.7%

Shortland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.6%34%12%8.8%7.4%3.2%53%47%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—33.2%35.8%8.9%10.8%8.3%3%50%50%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%41%7%——11%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—37%37%12%——15%53%47%
21 May 2022 Election 40%32.1%9.9%6.4%2.6%9.1%55.8%44.2%

Sydney

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—44.5%23.9%20.2%4.9%4.2%2.4%63.3%36.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—46.3%24.3%19.5%4.8%3.8%1.3%62.6%37.4%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%23%21%——12%63%37%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—52%18%23%——6%70%30%
21 May 2022 Election 50.8%23%19.7%1.8%—4.7%66.7%33.3%

Warringah

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
IND LIB ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
5–7 March 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—33%41%7%7%—12%WinLoss
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.9%31.5%15.5%9.3%2.4%0.4%59.6%40.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37%31.9%16.4%11%3.2%0.6%59.2%40.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909——36%17%7%—40%55%45%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976——37%17%10%—36%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 44.8%33.4%8.4%7.4%2.1%3.9%61%39%

Watson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.8%29.7%12.6%10.7%3.8%3.4%57.3%42.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.1%28.1%13.9%7.4%5.4%3.1%60.2%39.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%38%11%——11%54%46%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%30%14%——17%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 51.9%26.6%9.6%4.9%—7.2%65.1%34.9%

Wentworth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
9 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [c] [13] [14] 1,015—32.9%32.5%12.2%———58%42%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%WinLoss
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35%29.3%20.7%12%2.3%0.6%53.6%46.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.4%28.1%20.7%13.1%3.2%0.6%55%45%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—38%—17%8%—37%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%—17%9%—33%55%45%
5 Feb 2024uComms [b] [10] 643±3.85%35.5%32.1%13.1%10%—2.9%57%43.0%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.5%35.8%10.9%8.3%1%3.6%54.2%45.8%

Werriwa

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—30.7%36.2%11.1%9%4.6%8.5%49.4%50.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—32.7%37.6%11%9.1%4.4%5.2%49.4%50.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%38%8%——17%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—39%35%7%——19%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 39.9%30.7%6.7%5.1%—17.7%55.8%44.2%

Whitlam

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
6 Apr 2025Ben Britton disendorsed as Liberal candidate and replaced by Nathaniel Smith [15]
3 Apr 2025 Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson withdraws and endorses the Liberals [16]
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35%33.2%11.4%11.3%5.5%3.6%52.9%47.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—33.8%35%10.2%12.2%5.8%2.9%50.6%49.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—37%33%12%——17%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—36%34%15%——16%54%46%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45%28.2%10.8%6.9%—9.1%60.1%39.9%

Northern Territory

Lingiari

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.2%32.1%14.2%9.9%6%2.5%54.6%45.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—37.5%28.7%14.3%10.3%6.6%2.7%57.2%42.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—33%38%9%——21%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—30%36%12%——22%47%53%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—30%33%8%——29%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.6%34.7%11.0%5.4%3.0%9.4%51.0%49.0%

Solomon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
27 Feb - 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.2%29.9%15.1%7.6%5.1%8.1%55.7%44.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—32.3%32.8%15.6%8.9%4.8%5.6%53%47%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—45%29%14%——12%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—46%26%13%——25%62%38%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—38%28%14%——19%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.5%25%14.8%5.4%—15.4%59.4%40.6%

Queensland

Blair

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—31.6%32.4%12.5%14.2%4.2%4%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—32.7%32.9%11.7%15.8%4.5%2.5%50.8%49.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—34%28%15%——23%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—34%30%16%——19%56%44%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 35%28.9%12.6%10%—13.5%55.2%44.8%

Bonner

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.7%27.3%15.6%8.6%5.2%1.6%53.6%46.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.8%28.3%14.4%7.3%5.4%0.9%54.4%45.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—47%32%12%——9%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—46%27%17%——10%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.8%29.6%16.8%5.6%—3.3%53.4%46.6%

Bowman

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.1%26%12.4%11%4.9%3.5%55.8%44.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.5%25.1%10.8%10.7%6.1%1.9%58.5%41.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—52%30%11%——8%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%27%13%——16%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.4%29.2%13%7.7%—7.6%55.5%44.5%

Brisbane

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
20 Mar 2025uComms [d] [17] [18] [19] 1,184—32.1%23.2%24.2%——20.5%52%48%—
—44%56%
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [22] 600—36.4%29.5%18.1%—9.7%6.3%47.0%53.0%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.4%31.3%25%3.1%2.9%2.3%—44.9%55.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35.7%30%23.7%4.3%4.4%1.9%—46.3%53.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%25%31%——7%55%45%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—39%22%29%——10%52%48%—
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—41%29%22%——8%50%50%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.7%27.3%27.2%2.2%—5.6%53.7%46.3%—

Capricornia

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.3%23.8%21.2%7.8%5.1%2.7%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—41.2%25.6%20.6%6.2%5.3%1.1%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%26%—5%—23%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%27%—7%—24%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.4%28.1%14.6%5.9%3.4%8.7%56.6%43.4%

Dawson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.9%21.6%18.5%8.4%4.6%3.9%61.1%38.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.3%23.6%18.3%6.9%3.8%2.2%61.9%38.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—52%24%—8%—16%64%36%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%26%—8%—21%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.3%24.5%13.3%7.2%—11.7%60.4%39.6%

Dickson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
10 Apr 2025 (released)Freshwater Strategy [f] [23] ————————57%43%
10 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [c] [23] ————————48.3%51.7%
9–10 Apr 2025uComms [g] [23] 854—37.6%24.2%10.9%—12.0%4.6%48%52%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.7%28.8%12.7%8.6%7.8%2.4%52.5%47.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—41.3%28.2%12.3%8.8%8.2%1.2%53.9%46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%33%6%——12%56%44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%30%9%——19%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%31.7%13%5.4%3.9%4%51.7%48.3%

Fadden

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.7%23.2%10.8%14.3%5.7%3.3%58.4%41.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—47.2%21.8%10.6%11.5%6.6%2.2%61.1%38.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—45%25%10%——19%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%25%11%——22%58%42%
15 July 2023 By-election 49.1%22.1%6.2%8.9%2.7%11.1%63.4%36.7%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.6%22.4%10.7%8.7%4.2%9.5%60.6%39.4%

Fairfax

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.2%22.2%12.3%12.9%7.7%3.7%57.4%42.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.3%21.2%12.8%11.2%7.3%2.2%59.8%40.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%22%9%——24%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%24%9%——25%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 44.9%21.9%13.4%6.6%2.1%11.2%59%41.1%

Fisher

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.6%21.2%13.1%14.4%6.4%3.3%58.2%41.8%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [6] —±3%43%—————Win—Loss
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.2%23.3%12%12%5.7%1.9%59.2%40.8%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%25%8%——17%62%38%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%25%11%——20%59%41%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.3%23.3%13.8%9.3%—9.3%58.7%41.3%—

Flynn

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.8%25.7%22.1%6.2%6.2%3.1%57%43%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—38.2%27.3%19.2%6.6%6.6%2.1%56.5%43.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%32%—5%—18%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%30%—9%—21%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.9%33.5%12.2%4.3%4.1%9%53.8%46.2%

Forde

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.9%25.1%11.4%14.2%7.2%5.2%54.3%45.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—38.9%26%13.3%12%6.3%3.3%54.8%45.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%26%16%——21%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—35%30%15%——21%51%49%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.9%28%9.9%8%3.1%14.1%54.2%45.8%

Griffith

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
GRN LNP ALP ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [22] 600—31.3%38.6%22.6%—1.5%5.9%———
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—30.5%29.8%32.5%4%1.8%1.4%45.2%—54.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—30.7%29.3%31.9%3.5%3.6%1%47.1%—52.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—34%29%26%——10%59%41%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—38%31%20%——11%58%42%—
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—29%30%30%——1259%41%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 34.6%30.7%28.9%3.3%—2.4%60.5%39.5%—

Groom

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LNP IND ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—43.6%19.3%12.1%14.9%8.4%1.7%61.2%—38.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.3%18.2%13.6%14.4%7.3%1.2%62.9%—37.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—46%24%——7%24%55%45%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%27%——5%24%53%47%—
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—45%20%—7%—28%55%45%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.7%18.7%15.4%9.6%5.85%6.7%56.9%43.1%—

Herbert

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—45%23.6%10.3%9%6.8%5.2%58.6%41.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.2%21.1%9.8%11.8%7.8%4.3%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%23%9%——19%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—46%27%8%——19%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 47%21.6%8.2%5.3%4.3%13.7%61.8%38.2%

Hinkler

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP IND ONP GRN OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.9%22.9%11%15%7.2%2%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.2%20.2%15.8%13.4%6.1%1.4%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%29%——7%15%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%29%——6%20%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1%23.3%13.1%8.7%5.5%7.3%60.1%39.9%

Kennedy

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
KAP LNP ALP GRN IND OTH KAP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217——27.5%15.6%7.8%2.6%46.5%65.2%34.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732——33%14.3%7.7%2.9%42.2%60.7%39.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909——27%19%8%—45%58%42%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976——32%22%6%—40%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.7%28.2%16.1%6.4%3.2%4.4%63.1%36.9%

Leichhardt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.1%26.1%12.5%11.8%5.3%7.1%53.3%46.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.5%27.5%12.2%13.5%5.6%3.6%53.5%46.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%30%9%——20%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—34%31%6%——29%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.7%27.6%10%7.4%—18.3%53.4%46.6%

Lilley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.4%30.8%16.4%6.6%5%2.8%57.9%42.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—36.8%32.6%15.2%7.5%6%1.9%55.7%44.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%34%17%——5%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—39%31%22%——8%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.8%29.8%17.1%4.1%—7.2%60.5%39.5%

Longman

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.3%27.6%13.3%9.5%4.6%6.7%54.4%45.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.9%26.6%14.6%8.6%6%4.4%56.3%43.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—42%31%—10%—16%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%32%—9%—18%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.2%31.5%8.3%7.2%—14.9%53.1%46.9%

Maranoa

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP ONP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—48.6%14.8%24.8%5.9%3.5%2.4%67.7%—32.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—51.8%16.9%18.3%5.9%4.8%2.2%72%—28%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—54%14%—4%—29%73%27%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—52%14%—4%—30%72%28%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 56.3%15.3%11.9%4.9%—11.7%72.1%27.9%—

McPherson

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.5%23%13.4%12%5.6%4.5%56.8%43.2%—
Late Feb 2025Climate 200 [6] —±3%42%—————Win—Loss
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——42%————————
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—44.9%22.8%14.1%10.3%5.3%2.7%58.4%41.6%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%27%7%——18%61%39%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%27%10%——20%58%42%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.6%22%15.4%7.2%—11.8%59.3%40.7%—

Moncrieff

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—43.2%22.5%11.9%12.2%4.9%5.3%58.5%41.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—45.7%22.6%12.6%10.7%5.3%3.1%59.4%40.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%22%11%——18%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%27%9%——20%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.9%20.8%12.1%7.1%—14.1%61.2%38.8%

Moreton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.5%33.2%19.1%6.4%3.5%2.4%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.1%35.1%18.5%5.6%5.3%1.4%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%36%16%——5%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—39%35%17%——9%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.4%33.3%20.8%3.6%—4.9%59.1%40.9%

Oxley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.9%30.5%14.3%9.3%3.8%2.2%57.7%42.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—38.1%31.5%14.2%9.1%5.7%1.5%56.2%43.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%29%17%——13%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%32%11%——14%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.9%28.7%14.3%5.8%—5.3%61.6%38.4%

Petrie

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.7%30%12.3%8.1%4.9%4.1%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—41.3%28.6%11.4%10%6.5%2.1%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—47%33%9%——11%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—47%31%11%——11%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%30%11.4%5.3%—9.8%54.4%45.6%

Rankin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LNP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LNP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.3%31.3%12.9%12.7%3.6%3.2%54.5%45.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37%31.6%12.4%12%5%2.1%54.5%45.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—42%31%16%——11%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%31%9%——20%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44%29%10.7%8%—8.4%59.1%40.9%

Ryan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP GRN ALP ONP IND OTH GRN LNP ALP
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [22] 600—39.6%27.4%21.9%—7.1%3.9%51.6%48.3%—
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37%27.1%26.5%3%2.1%4.4%51.9%48.1%—
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.1%26.1%27.1%3.9%4.1%1.8%—47.6%52.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%33%21%——8%54%46%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—41%27%20%——12%49%51%—
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—37%26%26%——11%53%47%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38.5%30.2%22.3%2.3%—6.8%52.7%47.4%—

Wide Bay

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.4%20.4%19.2%9%8.4%2.6%60.5%39.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.8%20.2%13.6%9.3%11.2%1.9%60.6%39.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—49%24%—7%—20%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%23%—10%—24%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.5%21.3%10.2%9.5%7.2%8.4%61.3%38.7%

Wright

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP ONP GRN IND OTH LNP ALP ONP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.4%18.3%23.3%10.1%3.4%3.5%66.1%—33.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8732—46.3%20.7%18%9.6%3.6%1.8%63.2%36.8%—
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—46%21%—7%—26%64%36%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%19%—11%—28%62%38%—
21 May 2022 Election 43.2%21.4%14.3%11.4%—9.8%60.9%39.1%

South Australia

Adelaide

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.1%31.3%18.3%5.8%4.1%2.4%58.1%41.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—33.7%32.8%19.9%5.7%6.4%1.6%55.7%44.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—46%32%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—38%32%17%——13%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%32%20.1%3%—4.9%61.9%38.1%

Barker

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND NAT OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—47.3%22.6%7.2%13.5%8.4%—1.1%61.7%38.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—49.5%19.3%8%11.9%9.9%—1.4%64.1%35.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—47%15%5%———33%68%32%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—50%16%10%———23%67%33%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 53.2%20.9%7.4%6.6%4.8%2.4%4.7%66.6%33.4%

Boothby

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.1%31.9%15.8%10%4.5%1.7%52.7%47.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—38%28.9%13.2%13.2%5.6%1.2%50.6%49.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%37%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—39%36%17%——7%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 38%32.3%15.2%7.5%2%5%53.3%46.7%

Grey

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.1%22%12.6%7.7%13.4%2.2%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—42.9%19.1%15.1%9.4%10.6%2.9%59.6%40.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—46%20%—8%—26%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%23%—8%—25%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.3%21.4%12.5%6.8%6.3%7.7%60.1%39.9%

Hindmarsh

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.5%34%13.9%8.4%5.4%2.8%53.9%46.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—34.3%35.6%13.2%7.7%7%2.3%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—39%37%14%——10%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—41%37%10%——12%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.2%32.7%13.9%3.9%—7.3%59%41.1%

Kingston

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.4%28.1%13%9.8%6.7%2.1%58.9%41.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.8%28.8%13%10.4%9.1%2%56.7%43.3%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%33%12%——11%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%29%12%——15%62%38%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 49.2%25.9%12.4%4.9%2.71%4.9%66.4%33.7%

Makin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39%33.1%12%9.3%3.7%3%55.3%44.7%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.1%33.8%11.4%9.5%7.1%2%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%33%10%——15%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—39%34%15%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.3%31.4%11.4%4.7%—6.1%60.8%39.2%

Mayo

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
CA LIB ALP GRN ONP OTH CA LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217——28.8%16.3%12.7%3.5%38.6%62.1%37.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—31.5%30.5%17.2%11.7%7.2%1.9%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909——29%20%9%—42%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976——35%20%9%—37%59%41%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040——29%23%17%—31%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 31.4%27%18.1%11.8%4.1%7.6%62.3%37.7%

Spence

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38%28.6%12.5%15.5%3%2.4%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.6%28.4%12.3%16.4%4.5%1.8%55.1%44.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—36%29%16%——19%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—35%26%12%——28%58%42%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 62.9%25.6%11.4%10.9%—8.4%62.9%37.1%

Sturt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.3%29.5%15.2%6.4%5.5%3.1%51.5%48.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—42.7%28.6%14.7%5.2%7.2%1.6%59.6%40.4%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——36%———————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%33%14%——11%50%50%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—41%30%11%——18%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%30.7%16.4%2.6%—7.2%50.5%49.6%

Tasmania

Bass

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.2%26.6%13.3%11%9.9%3.1%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.8%27.8%12.3%9.9%11.2%11.9%52.1%47.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%27%12%——17%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—40%25%13%——22%52%48%
21 May 2022 Election 39.7%28.6%11.1%5%4.7%10.8%51.4%48.6%

Braddon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.7%25.3%10.5%9.3%9.7%4.5%55.7%44.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—41.6%22.1%12.9%8.9%11.1%16.3%58.1%41.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—46%22%—7%—25%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%21%—10%—25%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.1%22.5%7.8%6.7%4.3%14.5%58%42%

Clark

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
IND ALP LIB GRN ONP OTH IND ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—43.5%21.2%16.5%14.4%4%0.3%64.8%35.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—40.1%22.8%17.9%15.4%3.3%0.4%56%44%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909——27%10%13%—51%68%32%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976——18%22%13%—47%72%28%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 45.5%18.8%15.9%13.5%2.6%3.8%70.8%29.2%

Franklin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
9–10 Apr 2025Enterprise Marketing and Research Service [24] 4304.71%38%19%13%—20% [h] ———
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.6%29.2%18.1%6%6.5%6.7%57.1%42.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.1%30.7%14.5%8.2%6.4%4.1%56%44%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%31%18%——9%63%37%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—36%29%13%——22%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 36.7%26.7%17.4%2.9%—16.4%63.7%36.3%

Lyons

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN JLN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
10 Apr 2025 (released)uComms [i] [25] [26] 712—29.5%27.2%14.6%5.8%4.1%——50.9%49.1%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.7%28%11.7%—10%6.8%5.9%47.5%52.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—38.1%26.5%10.8%—12.5%6.8%5.3%45.6%54.4%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%26%9%———24%46%54%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—41%25%9%———24%46%54%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—37%28%13%———23%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 37.2%29.0%11.4%10.9%5.4%—6.1%50.9%49.1%

Victoria

Aston

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.7%28.2%13.8%6.2%6.5%4.6%52.7%47.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.5%29%12.8%7%6.8%1.9%53.7%46.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—47%33%11%——9%54%46%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—47%30%11%——11%56%44%
1 Apr 2023 2023 by-election 39.1%40.9%10.1%—7.0%2.9%46.4%53.6%
21 May 2022 Election 43.1%32.6%12.1%3.1%—9.2%52.8%47.2%

Ballarat

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.4%28.2%14.6%9.9%6.4%2.6%58.3%41.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35%29.2%15.5%9.3%8.2%2.8%56.4%43.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%35%7%——13%56%44%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—37%33%17%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 Election 44.7%27.1%14.6%3.6%2.1%7.9%63%37%

Bendigo

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.5%28.5%13.5%10.1%9.5%2%57.1%42.9%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.3%30.1%13.2%10.5%9.3%2.6%54.8%45.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%34%12%——14%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—37%33%12%——18%55%45%
21 May 2022 Election 43%26.6%14.1%5.5%4.3%6.5%62.1%37.9%

Bruce

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.1%34.5%12.8%9%4.3%5.4%52.4%47.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.1%35.2%11.9%8.9%5.4%4.6%51.7%48.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—39%38%10%——12%52%48%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%38%10%——14%51%49%
21 May 2022 Election 41.5%30.3%9.7%4.8%—13.8%56.6%43.4%

Calwell

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.6%28.6%14.5%12.6%3.7%6%55.4%44.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.7%27.2%15.1%11.2%3.8%5.1%57.9%42.1%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%31%12%——17%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—37%28%16%——19%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 44.9%23.7%9.7%7%—14.7%62.4%37.6%

Casey

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN IND ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.2%22%13.7%15.5%9.1%4.6%52.6%47.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.2%22.7%14.9%12.5%7.6%3.2%54.2%45.8%
Between March–December 2024Climate 200 [7] ——38%———————
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—39%28%14%——19%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%28%16%——18%49%51%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5%24.9%12.9%8.3%3.3%14.1%51.5%48.5%

Chisholm

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—30.9%38.3%14.8%8.7%4.1%3.2%50.7%49.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—29.9%41.8%13.4%8.8%4%2.1%48%52%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—33%41%13%——12%50%50%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%43%9%——12%49%51%
21 May 2022 Election 40.1%36.3%12.6%2.4%1.4%7.2%56.4%43.6%

Cooper

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.4%27.7%20.8%5.8%5.9%5.5%56%44%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.2%26.9%21.8%4.8%4.6%2.7%57.7%42.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%25%23%——9%62%38%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%29%20%——11%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 41.3%27.4%16.4%3%—12%58.7%41.3%

Corangamite

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.5%34%15.9%6%5.3%3.3%54.9%45.1%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.2%35.7%13.4%7.5%6.6%2.6%52.4%47.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—34%38%10%——18%51%49%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—33%38%15%——14%53%47%
21 May 2022 Election 38.2%34.1%15.2%2.5%—9.9%57.6%42.4%

Corio

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—35.1%28.2%16%7.5%7.6%5.7%57.5%42.5%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—36.9%29.2%14.5%9.2%6.2%4.1%56.9%43.1%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%23%25%——9%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%29%9%——22%58%42%
21 May 2022 Election 42.1%24.6%14.9%3.9%—14.5%62.8%37.2%

Deakin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.3%29.3%15.7%4.9%8.1%3.6%50%50%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—40.5%30.3%13.8%5.8%8%1.7%51.5%48.5%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%33%10%——11%53%47%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—46%31%14%——9%53%47%
21 May 2022 Election 41.5%32.8%13.9%2.3%1.3%8.3%50.2%49.8%

Dunkley

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—32.9%32.7%13.6%8.2%7.4%5.2%53.6%46.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35.1%32.1%11.9%6.5%10.1%4.2%53.6%46.4%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%37%10%——15%52%48%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—38%36%9%——18%53%47%
2 Mar 2024 2024 by-election 41.1%39.2%6.4%4.7%—8.6%52.7%47.3%
21 May 2022 Election 40.2%32.5%10.3%3.9%2.8%10.3%56.3%43.7%

Flinders

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.4%22.2%14.5%11.4%8.3%3.3%55.8%44.2%—
Late February 2025Climate 200 [6] —±3%38%—————51%—49%
Between March–December 2024Climate 200 [7] ——40%———————
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.2%21.6%15.3%10.2%7%2.8%57.7%42.3%—
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%25%—8%—19%58%42%—
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—46%26%—9%—19%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 43.5%21.7%12.5%9.4%3.4%9.5%56.7%43.3%—

Fraser

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38%27.2%19.8%5.9%4.3%4.8%60.6%39.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.2%27%19.7%5.5%5.6%3%61.3%38.7%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—37%28%23%——12%64%36%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%26%22%——16%64%36%
21 May 2022 Election 42.1%24.7%18.5%2.9%—11.8%66.5%33.5%

Gellibrand

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.9%29.9%16.4%7.3%5.1%4.5%57.6%42.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.4%30.3%17.4%6.9%5%3%57.8%42.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—38%31%11%——20%55%45%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—42%34%13%——11%57%43%
21 May 2022 Election 42.7%27%16.5%3%—10.7%61.5%38.5%

Gippsland

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP ONP GRN IND OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—48.7%21.5%12.5%9.8%4.9%2.4%62.4%37.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—49.2%20.8%14.6%7.8%6.4%1.2%64.1%35.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—45%14%—7%—34%74%26%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—48%13%—7%—33%76%24%
21 May 2022 Election 54.1%19.2%9.4%8.5%—8.8%70.6%29.4%

Goldstein

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
18–25 Mar 2025uComms [c] [27] [28] [29] 1,225—————3.9%—54%46%
12–13 Mar 2025JWS Research [j] [30] [31] [32] 800—44%24%21%5%—6%46%54%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.1%34.6%16.8%9.8%2.1%0.5%54.5%45.5%
12–25 Feb 2025uComms [27] 979———————52%48%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.8%32.6%17%9.7%3.1%0.7%54.3%45.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%—11%7%—37%52%48%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—49%—17%6%—29%47%53%
Feb–May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—38%—14%9%—38%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.4%34.5%11%7.8%1.3%5%52.9%47.1%

Gorton

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.4%33.4%11.4%10.2%6.1%5.5%52.2%47.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—34.6%35.8%11.5%9.7%5.8%2.7%51.5%48.5%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%33%10%——17%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—41%34%9%——16%56%44%
21 May 2022 Election 41.3%27.4%9%7.3%2.5%12.5%60%40%

Hawke

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—30.2%31.1%11.7%10.5%12.3%4.2%51.9%48.1%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—30.8%32.2%11.8%9.1%12.6%3.5%51.2%48.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—31%36%8%——24%50%50%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—39%31%11%——18%57%43%
21 May 2022 Election 36.7%26.3%8.9%7.9%5.6%14.5%57.6%42.4%

Holt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.6%32%13.4%11.5%5.1%4.4%53.3%46.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35.8%31.1%12.4%10.8%5.7%4.3%54.4%45.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—35%37%14%——14%52%48%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%33%14%——17%55%45%
21 May 2022 Election 40.9%29.6%8.5%4.8%3%13.2%57.1%42.9%

Hotham

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.4%31.7%16.5%5.5%5.4%4.6%56.7%43.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.4%32.7%15%5.5%6.4%3%56.2%43.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—42%35%14%——8%59%41%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—43%36%12%——9%57%43%
21 May 2022 Election 47%25.2%12.4%2.9%—12.4%64.3%35.8%

Indi

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
IND LIB ALP ONP NAT GRN OTH IND LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—42.5%32.5%11.5%6.8%—6.3%0.5%58.6%41.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.4%34.7%12.7%6.5%—7.9%0.7%56.2%43.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909——37%8%——3%52%61%39%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976——32%9%——5%54%65%35%
21 May 2022 Election 40.7%30.5%8.6%5.3%3.8%3.6%7.6%58.9%41.1%

Isaacs

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.5%31.6%14.5%6%6.2%5.2%56.3%43.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.7%33.1%13.1%7.1%6.1%2.9%55.3%44.7%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—43%38%11%——8%56%44%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%34%10%——15%55%45%
21 May 2022 Election 40%31.9%12.9%3.2%—12.1%56.9%43.2%

Jagajaga

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37%30.2%16.9%7.7%4.8%3.4%58.2%41.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—36.1%32%15.2%8%5.2%3.6%56.2%43.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%37%12%——10%56%44%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—40%35%16%——9%59%41%
February 2024 – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—39%33%18%——10%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40.9%29.2%16.7%3.1%2.3%7.9%62.4%37.7%

Kooyong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
12–13 March 2025JWS Research [j] [30] [31] [32] 800—40%32%11%9%—8%51%49%
5–7 Mar 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39%30.1%16.9%11.6%2.1%0.4%51.2%48.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—38.7%29.4%16.5%12.2%2.7%0.4%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%—11%9%—37%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%—12%4%—41%53%47%
5 Feb 2024uComms [b] [10] 647±3.9%36.8%32.5%12.1%6.8%—2%56%44%
Mid-Aug 2023KJC Research [33] ————————46.5%53.5%
24–25 Jul 2023uComms [b] [34] [35] 821±3.4%40.3%31.6%12.4%5.6%—2.9%51%49%
Feb – May 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [5] 4,040—39%—10%7%—43%52%48%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.7%40.3%6.9%6.3%0.7%3.1%52.9%47.1%

La Trobe

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.8%25.5%13.1%9.8%5.4%4.4%55.5%44.5%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.1%26.8%12.8%11.1%4.5%2.7%55.6%44.4%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—42%24%9%——25%60%40%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—45%24%7%——24%61%39%
21 May 2022 Election 45.6%26.1%10.9%5%—12.5%58.7%41.3%

Lalor

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.3%29.4%14.5%9.5%7%5.3%55.8%44.2%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—37.1%29.1%13.8%9.3%6.3%4.4%56.9%43.1%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—40%32%13%——14%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—42%31%13%——13%60%40%
21 May 2022 Election 44.1%25%10.4%3.9%2.9%13.7%62.8%37.2%

Macnamara

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB IND ONP OTH ALP LIB
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [36] 600—25.9%27.9%37.6%——8.6%——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.9%25.4%28.1%5.6%4.4%2.7%60%40%
22 January – 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—31.6%29.7%27.6%5.8%3.2%2.1%58.3%41.7%
29 October – 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—35%35%21%——9%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—36%32%22%——10%60%40%
13–20 Jun 2024RedBridge Group [37] 401±5.9%30%21%36%——13%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 31.8%29.7%29%2%1.5%6.2%62.3%37.8%

Mallee

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT ALP IND ONP GRN OTH NAT ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—44.7%18.1%13.5%14.5%6.7%2.5%62.7%37.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—47.3%15.4%14.8%12.8%7.7%2.1%64.2%35.8%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—46%18%——6%30%67%33%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—45%16%——6%33%67%33%
21 May 2022 Election 49.1%16.8%12.2%6.8%5.3%9.9%69%31%

Maribyrnong

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.2%30.5%16.7%5%5.8%5.8%57.4%42.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—36.6%31.9%16.4%5.7%6.2%3.3%56.6%43.4%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—39%30%14%——18%58%42%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%33%13%——10%60%40%
21 May 2022 Election 42.4%27.1%16.3%2.4%—11.9%62.5%37.6%

McEwen

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—30.6%35%13.8%11.1%5.5%3.9%50.5%49.5%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—31.8%37.3%13.4%10.2%4.7%2.6%49.7%50.3%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—32%40%16%——13%49%51%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—34%39%13%——14%49%51%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8%33.2%14.1%5.6%—10.2%53.3%46.7%

Melbourne

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
GRN ALP LIB IND ONP OTH GRN ALP
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [22] 600—50.1%19.2%21.6%——9.1%——
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.3%30.9%19.4%2.8%2.1%3.5%52.7%47.3%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.2%29.8%18.8%4%2.7%2.5%55%45%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—27%21%44%——7%55%45%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%22%22%——12%57%43%
21 May 2022 Election 49.6%25%15.2%1.1%1%8.1%60.2%39.9%

Menzies

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.4%27.6%14%4.9%6.6%6.5%52.6%47.4%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—43.8%27.5%13.3%4.6%7.4%3.3%54.5%45.5%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—47%31%15%——6%53%47%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—46%33%12%——9%53%47%
21 May 2022 Election 42.1%33.3%14.1%2.3%—8.2%50.7%49.3%

Monash

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP IND GRN ONP OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.4%22.3%12.6%10.9%15.5%2.4%55.3%44.7%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—39.1%22.3%14.2%10.9%11.8%1.7%56%44%
Between March–December 2024Climate 200 [7] ——26%———————
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%26%—8%—22%57%43%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—39%25%—9%—28%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 37.8%25.6%10.7%9.9%7.5%8.5%52.9%47.1%

Nicholls

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
NAT IND LIB ALP ONP GRN OTH NAT IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.9%22.7%—15.7%12.3%6.2%1.3%55.2%44.8%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—42.6%23.1%—14.4%12.2%6.4%1.2%55.4%44.6%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%——18%—5%33%53%47%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%——23%—5%28%54%46%
21 May 2022 Election 26.1%25.5%18.1%11.5%6.5%3.2%9%53.8%46.2%

Scullin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.4%28.8%13.4%9.9%4.1%7.4%56.4%43.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35.8%29.7%14.8%9.2%5%5.6%56.1%43.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—44%31%13%——11%61%39%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—42%27%9%——22%59%41%
21 May 2022 Election 46.3%21.7%10.9%6.5%—14.6%65.6%34.4%

Wannon

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2CP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH LIB IND
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37.7%28.7%18.6%7.4%7.1%0.6%49.4%50.6%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—41.4%25.3%18%8%6.6%0.8%52.1%47.9%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—48%—24%6%—21%55%45%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%—24%7%—26%51%49%
21 May 2022 Election 44.5%19.3%19.1%6.4%3.2%7.5%53.9%46.1%

Wills

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP GRN LIB ONP IND OTH ALP GRN
16 Mar 2025 (released)Insightfully [e] [20] [21] [22] 600——33.1%————53.7%46.3%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—32.9%29.9%20.7%4.7%4.9%7%53.9%46.1%
22 January - 12 February 2025YouGov [2] 8732—35%30.8%22.7%4.1%3.7%3.7%53.8%46.2%
29 October - 20 November 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4909—41%21%25%——12%62%38%
10 July – 27 August 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5976—44%22%22%——12%65%35%
21 May 2022 Election 38.9%28.3%17.3%2.8%—12.8%58.6%41.4%

Western Australia

Brand

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—43.8%25.7%12.2%9.5%4%4.9%61.4%38.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—39.1%26.7%12.6%11.5%6.1%4%58.3%41.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—48%30%9%——14%61%39%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%26%18%——12%64%36%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 50.2%22%11.4%5.4%—11%66.7%33.3%

Bullwinkel

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP NAT IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—33.7%34.8%11.9%9.1%—6.8%3.6%52%48%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—30.5%37.2%12.2%9.1%—8.1%2.9%49.2%50.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—32%40%8%———20%47%53%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—34%38%11%———18%50%50%
31 May 2024Creation of the Division of Bullwinkel announced [38]

Burt

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.5%28%12.1%11%4.6%4.8%57.9%42.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—37.2%28.9%13%10.9%5.5%4.5%56.4%43.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—47%32%12%——10%60%40%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—47%30%11%——12%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 51.6%23%9.8%4.9%—10.7%65.2%34.8%

Canning

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.2%32.2%9.1%8.5%6.9%4.1%51.6%48.4%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—41.6%25.6%9.9%9.2%10.7%3.1%55.9%44.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%24%7%——28%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%30%9%——17%55%45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.8%32.8%8.1%4.5%1.8%9%53.6%46.4%

Cowan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.8%32.3%11.4%8.3%4.4%3.8%56.1%43.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—35.8%32.2%13.2%7.9%6.7%4.2%54.8%45.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—43%36%11%——11%57%43%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%35%10%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 46.9%30.4%9.9%2.9%—10%60.8%39.2%

Curtin

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB IND ALP GRN ONP OTH IND LIB
5–7 March 2025Freshwater Strategy [a] [8] [9] 830—41%33%7%7%—12%LossWin
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.2%28.4%18.5%11.8%2.4%0.7%51.2%48.8%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—37.4%29.4%17.6%12.4%2.7%0.5%53.4%46.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—39%—19%12%—31%49%51%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—46%—23%8%—22%47%53%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.3%29.5%14.0%10.4%1.3%3.7%51.3%48.7%

Durack

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP NAT GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.9%27.4%—10.5%12.8%4.7%3.6%55.4%44.6%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—40.8%27.2%—11.8%12.4%4.9%2.9%55.2%44.8%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%21%—6%——28%62%38%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—46%23%—7%——23%61%39%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 34.3%29.2%10.2%9.5%6.9%—9.9%54.3%45.7%

Forrest

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP IND
9–10 Apr 2025uComms [23] [39] c. 1,000—34%———20%—49%—51%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—40.8%28.1%12.4%9.2%4.9%4.6%53.8%46.2%—
Late February 2025Climate 200 [6] —±3%37%—————51%—49%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—43.2%25.3%13%8.9%7%2.7%56.2%—43.8%
Between Mar–Dec 2024Climate 200 [7] ——38%————————
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%25%9%——22%58%42%—
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%25%14%——17%56%44%—
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 43.1%27.4%13.4%5.3%—10.7%54.3%45.7%—

Fremantle

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—37%27.8%17.4%7%5.8%5%59.1%40.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.4%29.5%17.8%6.6%5.8%3.9%57.9%42.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%29%18%——9%65%35%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%27%17%——12%65%35%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44%24.2%18.1%3.1%—10.6%66.9%33.1%

Hasluck

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.9%32.3%11.8%8.1%5.6%3.4%55.9%44.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—32.8%34.3%13.5%8.3%8.3%2.9%52.4%47.6%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%37%11%——11%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%35%10%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.7%33.4%11%3.8%3.4%8.7%56%44%

Moore

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—39.5%29.7%12.4%6.5%7.4%4.6%51.7%48.3%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—44.5%26.4%13.1%6.4%6.7%2.9%55.8%44.2%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—43%31%11%——14%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—44%32%12%——12%53%47%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 41.8%32.7%14.3%3.4%—7.8%50.7%49.3%

O'Connor

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LIB ALP
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—41.2%24.3%10.1%15.9%4.3%4.2%57.8%42.2%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—43.9%23.3%12.1%11%6.1%3.6%58.3%41.7%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—42%31%8%——19%54%46%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%22%10%——25%60%40%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 44.8%26.6%10.6%7.1%—10.9%57%43%

Pearce

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—34.4%33%12.3%10.9%4.5%5%52.9%47.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—32.7%34.8%12.7%10.9%5.4%3.5%51.1%48.9%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—36%34%15%——14%55%45%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%33%12%——13%57%43%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.8%29.9%11%4.5%—11.8%59%41%

Perth

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.5%28.5%20.6%5.9%4.9%3.5%59.5%40.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—36.5%29.6%21%5.7%4.9%2.3%58.9%41.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—44%28%19%——9%65%35%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—42%29%18%——11%63%37%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.3%26.7%22.2%2.7%—9.2%64.8%35.2%

Swan

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP LIB GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—36.2%32.6%15.9%6.1%4.9%4.2%55.9%44.1%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—33.6%33.7%16.2%7.1%6.2%3.2%53.9%46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—41%32%14%——13%59%41%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—43%34%12%——10%59%41%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 39.1%32.1%14.9%2.5%—11.5%58.8%41.2%

Tangney

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote 2PP vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP LIB
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025YouGov [1] 10,217—38.6%36.2%12.1%4.6%5.1%3.4%52.1%47.9%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025YouGov [2] 8,732—42.1%31.4%11.1%5.3%6.7%3.4%52.5%47.5%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [3] 4,909—40%38%14%——8%53%47%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024Accent Research/RedBridge Group [4] 5,976—45%38%10%——7%50%50%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 40%38.1%12%2.1%—7.9%52.4%47.6%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Results are a combined average from the electorates of Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong, Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth. [8]
  2. 1 2 3 4 Sponsored by The Australia Institute
  3. 1 2 3 Commissioned by Climate 200
  4. ↑ Commissioned by Liberals against Nuclear
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Commissioned by Advance
  6. ↑ Commissioned by the Liberal Party
  7. ↑ Commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council
  8. ↑ Peter George on 13% and Brendan Blomeley on 7%. [24]
  9. ↑ Commissioned by the Australian Forest Products Association
  10. 1 2 Commissioned by Australian Energy Producers

References

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