Next Italian general election

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Next Italian general election
Flag of Italy.svg
  2022 No later than 22 December 2027

All 400 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
201 seats needed for a majority
All 200 elective seats in the Senate of the Republic
101 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
Chamber of Deputies
Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 117
Democratic Party Elly Schlein 71
Lega Matteo Salvini 66
Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 50
Forza Italia Antonio Tajani 45
Action Carlo Calenda 12
Greens and Left Angelo Bonelli
Nicola Fratoianni
10
Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 8
Us Moderates Maurizio Lupi 5
SVP Philipp Achammer 3
More Europe Emma Bonino 2
South calls North Cateno De Luca 1
UV Cristina Machet1
MAIE Ricardo Merlo 1
Independent 5
Senate of the Republic
Brothers of Italy Giorgia Meloni 65
Democratic Party Elly Schlein 37
Lega Matteo Salvini 29
Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte 26
Forza Italia Antonio Tajani 20
Italia Viva Matteo Renzi 7
Action Carlo Calenda 4
Greens and Left Angelo Bonelli
Nicola Fratoianni
3
SVP Philipp Achammer 2
MAIE Ricardo Merlo 1
Independent 2

The next Italian general election will occur no later than 22 December 2027, [nb 1] although it may be called earlier as a snap election.

Contents

Background

Electoral system

The electoral law currently in force in Italy assigns seats in both houses of the Italian Parliament using mixed-member majoritarian representation.

The 400 deputies are to be elected as follows: [2]

The 200 elective senators are to be elected as follows: [2]

For Italian residents, each house member is to be elected in single ballots, including the constituency candidate and their supporting party lists. In each single-member constituency, the deputy or senator is elected on a plurality basis, while the seats in multi-member constituencies are allocated nationally. In order to be calculated in single-member constituency results, parties need to obtain at least 1% of the national vote and be part of a coalition obtaining at least 10% of the national vote. In order to receive seats in multi-member constituencies, parties need to obtain at least 3% of the national vote. Elects from multi-member constituencies would come from closed lists. [3]

The voting paper, which is a single one for the FPTP and the proportional systems, shows the names of the candidates to single-member constituencies and in close conjunction with them the symbols of the linked lists for the proportional part, each one with a list of the relative candidates. [4] The voter is able to cast their vote in three different ways, among them: [5]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Opinion polls Italy 2027.svg
Local regression trend line of poll results from 25 September 2022 to the election day, with each line corresponding to the next general election party lists

Party vote aggregations

Polling aggregatorDate updated FdI PD M5S Lega FI A IV AVS +E PTD DSP NM ScN OthersLead
Youtrend 13 September 202429.023.011.48.79.43.12.27.11.61.13.46.0
Politico Europe 29 July 202429.023.012.08.09.03.02.07.04.01.02.06.0
Europe Elects 26 July 202429.023.011.08.09.03.02.07.02.06.06.0
Election results 25 Sep 202226.019.115.48.88.17.8 [lower-alpha 1] 3.62.81.4 [lower-alpha 2] 1.2 [lower-alpha 3] 0.90.84.16.9

See also

Notes

  1. While elections in Italy are customarily held on a Sunday or Sunday and Monday, there is no constitutional requirement to do so; the latest possible date for a general election to be held is the 70th day following the expiration of the Parliament's five-year term. [1]

Related Research Articles

Plurality voting refers to electoral systems in which the candidates in an electoral district who poll more than any other are elected.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Proportional representation</span> Voting system that makes outcomes proportional to vote totals

Proportional representation (PR) refers to any type of electoral system under which subgroups of an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. The concept applies mainly to political divisions among voters. The essence of such systems is that all votes cast – or almost all votes cast – contribute to the result and are effectively used to help elect someone. Under other election systems, a bare plurality or a scant majority are all that are used to elect candidates. PR systems provide balanced representation to different factions, reflecting how votes are cast.

An electoraldistrict, sometimes called a constituency, riding, or ward, is a subdivision of a larger state created to provide its population with representation in the larger state's legislature. That body, or the state's constitution or a body established for that purpose, determines each district's boundaries and whether each will be represented by a single member or multiple members. Generally, only voters (constituents) who reside within the district are permitted to vote in an election held there. District representatives may be elected by a first-past-the-post system, a proportional representative system, or another voting method. They may be selected by a direct election under universal suffrage, an indirect election, or another form of suffrage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Senate of the Republic (Italy)</span> Upper house of the Italian Parliament

The Senate of the Republic, or simply the Senate, is the upper house of the bicameral Italian Parliament, the lower house being the Chamber of Deputies. The two houses together form a perfect bicameral system, meaning they perform identical functions, but do so separately. Pursuant to the Articles 57, 58, and 59 of the Italian Constitution, the Senate has 200 elective members, of which 196 are elected from Italian constituencies, and 4 from Italian citizens living abroad. Furthermore, there is a small number of senators for life, either appointed or ex officio. It was established in its current form on 8 May 1948, but previously existed during the Kingdom of Italy as Senato del Regno, itself a continuation of the Senato Subalpino of Sardinia established on 8 May 1848. Members of the Senate are styled Senator or The Honourable Senator and they meet at Palazzo Madama, Rome.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chamber of Deputies (Italy)</span> Lower house of the Italian Parliament

The Chamber of Deputies is the lower house of the bicameral Italian Parliament, the upper house being the Senate of the Republic. The two houses together form a perfect bicameral system, meaning they perform identical functions, but do so separately. The Chamber of Deputies has 400 seats, of which 392 are elected from Italian constituencies, and 8 from Italian citizens living abroad. Deputies are styled The Honourable and meet at Palazzo Montecitorio.

Block plurality voting is a winner-take-all method for multi-winner elections. Each voter may cast as many votes as the number of seats to be filled. The usual result when the candidates divide into parties is that the most popular party in the district sees its full slate of candidates elected.

A winner-take-all electoral system is one where a voting bloc can win all seats in a legislature or electoral district, denying representation to any political minorities. Such systems are used in many major democracies. Such systems are sometimes called "majoritarian representation", though this term is a misnomer, as most such systems do not always elect majority preferred candidates and do not always produce winners who received majority of votes cast in the district, and they allow parties to take a majority of seats in the chamber with just a minority of the vote.

Scorporo is a partially compensatory, mixed-member majoritarian electoral system, sometimes referred to as a negative vote transfer system (NVT) whereby a portion of members are elected in single-member districts (SMDs) and a portion are elected from a list. It may be fully defined as a parallel voting system which excludes a portion of the SMD winners' votes in electing the proportional tier, to result in a more proportional outcome. The exclusion of a portion of the SMD winners' votes is what makes scorporo fundamentally different from parallel voting and somewhat closer to the additional member system in the UK in theory. However, the design proved particularly susceptible to the decoy list strategy, and as a result by 2001 had devolved into a de facto parallel voting system. The scorporo method is only known to have been used in Italy, but a similar version is in used for the National Assembly of Hungary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1953 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its second delegation to the Italian Senate on June 7, 1953. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1953 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1958 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its third delegation to the Italian Senate on May 25, 1958. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1958 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1963 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its forth delegation to the Italian Senate on April 28, 1963. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1963 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mixed electoral system</span> Family of voting systems

A mixed electoral system is one that uses different electoral systems to elect different seats in a legislature. Most often, this involves a winner-take-all component combined with a proportional component. The results of the combination may be mixed-member proportional (MMP), where the overall results of the elections are proportional, or mixed-member majoritarian, in which case the overall results are semi-proportional, retaining disproportionalities from the majoritarian component. Systems that mix more than two components are sometimes called supermixed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Italian electoral law of 2017</span>

The Italian electoral law of 2017, colloquially known by the nickname Rosatellum after Ettore Rosato, the Democratic Party (PD) leader in the Chamber of Deputies who first proposed the new law, is a parallel voting system, which acts as a mixed electoral system, with 37% of seats allocated using a first-past-the-post electoral system and 63% using a proportional method, with one round of voting. The Chamber and Senate of the Republic did not differ in the way they allocated the proportional seats, both using the largest remainder method of allocating seats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1968 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its fifth delegation to the Italian Senate on May 19, 1968. This election was a part of the national Italian general election of 1968 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1972 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its sixth delegation to the Italian Senate on May 19, 1972. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1972 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1976 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its seventh delegation to the Italian Senate on June 20, 1976. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1976 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1979 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its eighth delegation to the Italian Senate on June 3, 1979. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1979 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1983 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its ninth delegation to the Italian Senate on June 26, 1983. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1983 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1987 Italian Senate election in Lombardy</span>

Lombardy elected its tenth delegation to the Italian Senate on June 14, 1987. This election was a part of national Italian general election of 1987 even if, according to the Italian Constitution, every senatorial challenge in each Region is a single and independent race.

Mixed-member majoritarian representation (MMM) is type of a mixed electoral system combining winner-take-all and proportional methods, where the disproportional results of the winner-take-all part are dominant over the proportional component. Mixed member majoritarian systems are therefore categorized under semi-proportional representation, and are usually contrasted with mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) which aims to provide proportional representation compensation ("top-up") seats.

References

  1. "Constitution of the Italian Republic" (PDF). Parliamentary Information, Archives and Publications Office of the Senate Service for Official Reports and Communication. Retrieved 29 October 2022.
  2. 1 2 Chughtai, Alia (4 March 2018). "Understanding Italian elections 2018". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 20 November 2022.
  3. Cavallaro, Matteo; Pregliasco, Lorenzo (15 January 2018). "'Hand-to-hand' combat in Italy's election". Politico. Retrieved 20 November 2022.
  4. "Elezioni, come si vota con il Rosatellum, debutta la nuova scheda elettorale". Today (in Italian). 20 October 2017. Retrieved 4 March 2018.
  5. "Il Rosatellum bis è legge. Ma come funziona" (in Italian). AGI. 23 July 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2022.