Second Trump tariffs

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The second Trump tariffs are trade initiatives announced by Donald Trump during his second administration as President of the United States. Trump has long promoted import tariffs as a method of negotiating deals and retaliating against countries he states are "ripping off" the United States.

Contents

After being reelected to a second term beginning in 2025, Trump continued a trade war with China and initiated a second one with Canada and Mexico. On March 4, 2025, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods, aside from 10% on Canadian energy, and a 20% tariff on all Chinese goods, but maintained the de minimis exemption. Several countries, including those in the European Union, began proactive negotiations with Trump to prevent additional tariff disputes.

In February 2025, Trump announced tariffs that would apply globally. A 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products is set to take effect on March 12, 2025. Additionally, Trump directed his cabinet members to submit a report on potential reciprocal tariffs by August 2025.

Background

Since the 1980s, Trump has advocated for import tariffs as a tool to regulate trade and retaliate against foreign nations that he believes have been "ripping off" Americans. [1] In his campaigns for U.S. presidency, Trump promised to use tariffs to achieve a wide range of goals including preventing war, reducing trade deficits, improving border security, and subsidizing childcare. [2] Although Trump has said foreign countries pay his tariffs, U.S. tariffs are paid by U.S. consumers and businesses either directly or in the form of increased prices. [1] [2] [3] Trump also said his tariffs would reduce grocery prices for Americans, even though tariffs are inflationary. [4] Shortly after being reelected to a second term, Trump acknowledged that tariffs may cause "some pain" for Americans but insisted "it will all be worth the price that must be paid". [5]

During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, resulting in price increases for Americans. [6] In December 2021, a metric ton of hot-rolled band steel was $1,855 in the U.S. compared to $646 in China and $1,031 in Europe. [7] The World Trade Organization later ruled that the implementation violated global trade rules. [8] While he and his successor, Joe Biden, rolled back some of these tariffs, most remained in place by the start of Trump's second term. [9] Trump also launched a trade war with China which subjected 60% of U.S.-China trade to 20% tariffs [10] and was widely characterized as a failure for the United States. [11]

In May 2019, Trump used tariff threats of up to 25% on Mexico to negotiate an expansion of his "Remain in Mexico" policy and the deployment of Mexican soldiers to help control illegal immigration. [12] Mexico deployed nearly 15,000 troops to its border with the U.S. and 6,500 troops to its border with Guatemala. [13] In 2020, the U.S., Mexico and Canada renegotiated NAFTA as the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and recommitted to 0% tariffs on most products traded between them. Five weeks after the USMCA went into effect, Trump used an exemption for national security concerns to implement a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminum after claiming it was flooding the U.S. market. [14] [15] He withdrew the tariff a month later, three hours before Canada planned to retaliate. [16]

2024 presidential campaign and transition

While campaigning for his second term as U.S. president, Trump vowed to implement even larger tariffs than his first term, including a 60% tariff on China, 100% on Mexico, and 20% on all other countries. He also proposed using tariffs to penalize American companies that outsourced manufacturing, such as imposing a 200% tariff on John Deere. [2] Additionally, Trump suggested replacing income taxes with tariff revenue, an idea that economists from the Peterson Institute and the Tax Foundation deemed "mathematically impossible." [17] [18]

During his inaugural address on January 20, 2025, Trump pledged to "immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens." [19] Trump appointed close economic advisor Peter Navarro as his Senior Counselor for trade and manufacturing. Navarro, a strong proponent of tariffs, had served in high ranking trade roles during Trump's first term but was often rebuffed by free market-minded Trump administration officials. The Financial Times reported Navarro would receive more influence and less opposition in Trump's second administration. [20]

Multinational tariffs

Steel and aluminum tariffs

On February 10, 2025, Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., set to take effect on March 12, 2025, eliminating hundreds of exemptions previously granted by either himself or Joe Biden. [21] [9] Trump also said he would impose a new standard requiring steel to be "melted and poured" and aluminum to be "smelted and cast" within North America to prevent countries like Russia and China from circumventing other tariffs. [22] Trump said he would consider reinstating an exemption for Australia, citing the U.S. trade surplus with the country. [23]

The U.S. was the world's largest importer of steel at the time, importing about 23% of the steel it consumed. [21] [22] In 2024 Canada was the largest supplier, exporting 6 million metric tons, followed by Brazil with 4.1 million, Mexico with 3.2 million, South Korea with 2.5 million, Vietnam with 1.2 million, and Japan with 1.1 million. Canada was also the U.S.'s top supplier of aluminum at 3.2 million metric tons. [21]

De minimis exemption

Trump's executive orders announcing tariffs in February 2025 initially suspended the de minimis exemption on U.S. imports from China, Mexico and Canada. [24] The de minimis exemption waives standard customs procedures on low-value packages to reduce administrative burden. U.S. Congress quadrupled the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800 in 2016, resulting in an over 1000% increase in shipments claiming the exemption by 2023. [25] [26]

The U.S. exemption was among the highest globally, over 5x the size of the European Union's, and used by many companies to send goods to the U.S. without close inspection or taxes. [26] The largest beneficiaries were Chinese e-commerce companies such as Shein and AliExpress. Some shipments were linked to drug trafficking. [25] However, by February 7, 2025, Trump indefinitely reinstated the de minimis exemption for all three target countries to avoid overwhelming customs officials. [27] [28] [29]

Reciprocal tariffs

On February 13, 2025, Trump asked his staff to research custom reciprocal tariffs for every country, taking into account features like their existing tariffs, trade balances, and value-added taxes, and to report back in 180 days. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said his team would have a plan ready by April 1, 2025. [30] Bloomberg News suggested the "president’s decision not to implement tariffs right away could be seen as an opening bid for negotiation". [31] Economists at Deutsche Bank estimated that a reciprocal tariff policy would raise the U.S. weighted average tariff rate from 1.5% in 2022 to 4.8%. [32]

Country-specific tariffs

China

On February 1, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14195 establishing a new 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. The order, which went into effect on February 4, came at the behest of the National Security Council. [33] [34] On February 10 China retaliated with tariffs of 15% on coals and liquefied natural gas and 10% on oil and agricultural machines. China also added PVH Corp. and Illumina to the Unreliable Entity List, launched an antitrust investigation into Google, and added export controls to some metals including tungsten. [35] [36]

Capital Economics, a UK-based macroeconomic research consultancy, estimated that while the U.S. levied new tariffs on about $450 billion worth of Chinese goods, China's additional tariffs only targeted about $20 billion of U.S. goods. Julian Evans-Pritchard, the firm's head of China Economics, stated "The measures are fairly modest, at least relative to U.S. moves". Reuters said China's "limited" response "underscored an attempt by Chinese policymakers to engage Trump in talks to avert an outright trade war". [36]

On March 4, 2025, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports again from 10% to 20%. [37] [38] In response, China announced the same day that it would impose a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as a 10% tariff on U.S. sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, effective March 10, 2025. [39] [40] Additionally, China launched an anti-circumvention investigation into optical fiber products imported from the United States. [41] The General Administration of Customs of China suspended U.S. lumber imports and revoked soybean import licenses for three U.S. firms. [42]

Canada and Mexico

On November 25, 2024, after winning reelection, Trump pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless the countries took steps to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking—particularly fentanyl—into the United States. The Wall Street Journal noted that it was unclear under what economic or national security authority Trump could implement such a tariff and that doing so would violate the USMCA, which he had negotiated during his first term. Following phone calls with Mexican officials, Trump claimed that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had agreed to "effectively closing our Southern Border" to avoid tariffs. Sheinbaum denied this but assured reporters that "there will not be a potential tariff war." [43] Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump on November 29, 2024. [44] On December 16, 2024, Trudeau announced a $1.3 billion security plan for the Canada-U.S. border which included the creation of a joint Canadian-U.S. "strike force" to combat transnational crime. [45] [46]

On January 31, 2025, the U.S. announced it would impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with the exception of 10% on Canadian crude oil and energy. [47] [48] [49] The next day, Trump signed executive orders imposing the tariffs, effective February 4, 2025, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the National Emergencies Act. [50] According to Bloomberg News, Trump advisors Peter Navarro and Stephen Miller were the leading officials in the economic discussions regarding the imposition of tariffs. [33]

Trudeau and Sheinbaum condemned Trump's actions and threatened immediate economic retaliation, but on February 3, 2025, the three leaders negotiated a one-month delay on the tariffs. As part of the agreement, Mexico committed to deploying 10,000 troops to its border with the United States, while Canada pledged to appoint a "fentanyl czar" and continue implementing the border security plan announced in 2024. [51] [52] In return, Trump pledged to take measures to curb weapons trafficking to Mexico and to collaborate with Canada on their joint anti-crime "strike force". [53] [54] Trump issued an updated executive order changing the start date of the tariffs to March 4 at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time. [55] On February 27, 2025, Trump announced on Truth Social that his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would proceed. "Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels," he claimed. [37]

U.S. tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada and Mexico went into effect on March 4, 2025. The Wall Street Journal commented, "If the tariffs remain in place, they have the potential to profoundly reshape relations between the U.S. and two of its biggest trading partners, abruptly reversing America’s decades-long project of expanding free trade with its allies." [56] In retaliation, Canada announced 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend these measures to an additional $125 billion in the coming weeks. Sheinbaum indicated that detailed retaliatory tariffs would be unveiled on March 9. These escalating trade tensions have raised concerns about potential economic slowdowns and increased consumer prices across North America. [57] [58]

Europe

Before his second inauguration, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Europe unless it reduced its trade surplus with the U.S. by increasing imports of American cars, agricultural products, and oil and gas. [59] The US and the EU traded a record $1.6 trillion in 2023. The European Commission pointed out that while the U.S. ran a trade deficit with the EU in goods, it was offset by a trade surplus in services. [60] On February 2, 2025, Trump told reporters he planned to impose tariffs on the European Union "pretty soon". He also suggested tariffs on the UK "might happen" but believed "that one can be worked out". [61]

Some EU leaders threatened retaliatory tariffs, while others expressed concerns about reigniting global inflation. [62] [63] [64] "We have to do everything to avoid this totally unnecessary and stupid tariff war," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. [62] On February 4, 2025, EU trade ministers met in Warsaw to discuss the U.S. president's threats. [65] On February 7, 2025, the EU proposed lowering tariffs on car imports—including American cars—from 10% to a rate closer to the 2.5% tariff imposed by the U.S., a deal originally suggested in January by BMW CEO Oliver Zipse. The EU also offered to increase its purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment from the U.S. [66]

On February 25, French President Emmanuel Macron aimed to persuade United States President Donald Trump to refrain from initiating a trade war with Europe and to concentrate on China instead. [67] [68] [69]

Other countries

On January 26, 2025, a dispute arose between Colombia and the U.S. after Colombian president Gustavo Petro refused to allow the landing of two U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombian nationals. [70] Petro called the treatment of deportees on military flights undignified and said he would accept deportation flights on civilian planes. [71] In response, Trump ordered retaliation against Colombia and its officials, [71] including 25 percent tariffs that would increase to 50 percent in one week if Petro did not reverse his position. [72] Petro responded by ordering a 25 percent tariff on the U.S. that would also increase to 50 percent. [71] Hours later, the U.S. said Colombia had agreed to "unrestricted acceptance" of deportees, including on military aircraft. [73] Colombia said it would "continue to receive" deported Colombians and would guarantee them "dignified conditions." [70]

In November 2024 and again in January 2025, Trump warned BRICS countries that they would face 100% tariffs if they attempted to replace the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. [74] Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House in February to negotiate tariffs and work on a deal to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. India reduced tariffs from 50% to 30% on motorcycles and from 150% to 100% on bourbon whiskey, promised to review other tariffs, and offered to increase imports of U.S. energy and defense equipment. Citi Research estimated India stood to lose $7 billion a year from Trump's reciprocal tariff proposals. [75]

Impact assessments

United States

The Tax Foundation estimated that the initial 10% tariff on Chinese imports would add $172 to the tax burden per U.S. household. Unlike in Trump's first term, there was no exception for Apple products or other popular consumer goods. [76]

The expected impact of the threatened 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods is much greater. For example, grocery prices were expected to rise as 2/3 of U.S. vegetable imports came from Mexico. [76] PIIE estimated that such a tariff retained through 2029 would reduce the gross domestic product of the United States by US$200 billion. [77] According to the Budget Lab at Yale University, American households would lose approximately US$1,200 in purchasing power. [78] The Tax Foundation estimated that these tariffs would lead to a $1.2 trillion increase in U.S. tax revenue between 2025 and 2034, with Mexican and Canadian retaliatory tariffs causing a tax revenue increase of $958 billion during the same period. [79]

The Council on Foreign Relations notes the energy sector of the American economy is expected to be among the most impacted by tariffs. [80] A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports is expected to increase energy prices for American consumers, in part, because Canada is the biggest supplier of energy to the United States, including 61 percent of crude oil imports in 2021. [81] American refineries, particularly in the Midwest, rely on crude oil to process into gasoline, and projections indicate that gas prices could increase up to 50 cents per gallon in the region due to tariffs. [80] On February 2, 2025, Canadian company Irving Oil released a statement, noting, “The majority of the product produced at our Saint John refinery is bound for the U.S. market… This tariff will result in price increases for our U.S. customers and have impacts on energy security and the broader economy.” [82] During his campaign, Trump promised voters he would cut energy prices in half during his first year in office. [83]

Economist Michael Hudson has argued that the tariffs have the potential to disrupt the global economy by disrupting the balance of payments between the United States and its foreign debtors. By reducing the export trade between the United States and countries targeted by the tariffs and raising the cost of dollar denominated goods, the US makes it more difficult for those countries to pay their dollar debts. Hudson believes this could cause a debt crisis, and compares it to the historical examples of the Latin American debt crisis and the inter-allied repayment of loans during the World Wars. [84]

China

Nomura Holdings estimated that eliminating the U.S. de minimis exemption for Chinese goods "would slow Chinese export growth by 1.3 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.2 point". [25] When the U.S. Congress raised the de minimis limit from $200 to $800 in 2016, they sparked a surge in U.S. imports of cheap Chinese goods. [25] A 2023 U.S. House Select Committee report estimated that "nearly half" of all de minimis shipments originated from China and that Chinese e-commerce companies. Temu and Shein, estimated to comprise more than 30% of daily de minimis exemptions to the U.S., onboarded more sellers with a physical presence in the U.S. and expanded their distribution facilities beyond China to mitigate the impact of losing the U.S. de minimis exemption. [27] [24]

On February 7, 2025, Trump suspended closing the exemption for China until the Secretary of Commerce notified him that adequate systems to process and collect tariff revenue were in place. [27]

Other countries

Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated that the tariffs would likely impact around half a million jobs in the province's automotive industry. [77] Peterson Institute Director of Studies Marcus Nolands believed the tariffs would cause deindustrialization in Mexico. [77]

See also

References

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  79. ↑ York, Erica (January 31, 2025). "Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Tariffs". Tax Foundation. Archived from the original on January 30, 2025. Retrieved February 2, 2025.
  80. 1 2 "Trump's Tariffs and What's at Stake, in Nine Charts". www.cfr.org. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  81. ↑ Victoria.Benner (April 13, 2022). "Mapping the Canada-U.S. Energy Relationship". Connect2Canada. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  82. ↑ "Irving Oil statement on U.S. tariff | Irving Oil". www.irvingoil.com. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  83. ↑ "Trump vows to halve energy costs in 12 months. Few see that happening". NBC News. September 4, 2024. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  84. ↑ Hudson, Michael (January 25, 2025). "Michael Hudson: Trump's tariff threats could destabilize the global economy". Geopolitical Economy Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
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