The first meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials took place four days after the invasion began, on 28 February 2022, in Belarus, and concluded without result. Later rounds of talks took place in March 2022 on the Belarus–Ukraine border and in Antalya, Turkey. Negotiations in Turkey created an agreement in which Ukraine would abandon plans to join NATO and have limits placed on its military, while having security guarantees from Western countries and not being required to recognize Russian ownership of Crimea. The draft treaty was almost agreed to, but disagreements over security guarantees and the Bucha massacre ultimately led negotiations to stop.
Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president of the United States. Trump held a phone call with Putin on 12 February and U.S. officials met with Zelenskyy shortly after. After a U.S.–Russia summit, the relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy deteriorated, culminating in a 28 February meeting between the two in which U.S. officials asked the Ukrainians to leave midway through and abandoned a planned Ukraine–U.S. mineral revenue deal. After the meeting, British prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron created a plan for a ceasefire protected by a "coalition of the willing" with troops in Ukraine. On 11 March, Ukrainian officials agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, contingent on Russian approval. On 18 March, Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy infrastructure for one month.
Background
Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom are signatories to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum political agreement, providing security assurances to Ukraine. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents. Russia reaffirmed this assurance in 2009.[1] After the Russian occupation of Crimea began in 2014, Putin claimed that the Revolution of Dignity had created a new political entity and any prior agreement with Ukraine was therefore void.[2]
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has repeatedly engineered frozen conflicts to block the expansion of NATO or the European Union into the former Soviet sphere of influence.[3][4][5][6] Conflicts are deemed "frozen" when fighting has stopped but no political resolution has been achieved. In 2014, Russia orchestrated separatist movements in Ukraine,[7] and Russian proxy forces began the Donbas war.[8][3][6] After Ukraine recovered significant territory up to August 2014, Russia intervened with conventional forces, leading to negotiated ceasefires through the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.[7] These ceasefires had potential to freeze the conflict, but sporadic offensives by Russia-backed separatists continued.[7] Although Russia was a party to the Minsk agreements, it later denied any obligations, claiming to have only been a mediator between Ukraine and separatist forces.[9]
Putin outlined Russia's terms for a ceasefire and negotiations in June 2024. He said that Russia must be allowed to keep all the land it occupies, and be handed all of the provinces that it claims but does not fully control. He also said that Ukraine must officially end its plans to join NATO. Further, he demanded that the international community recognize Russia's annexations and lift their sanctions against it.[12]
Shortly before the invasion, Russia demanded an international treaty to bar Ukraine from ever joining NATO but also withdrawal of NATO forces from its own eastern member states.[vague][13][14] This was rejected by NATO as it would go against its "open-door" policy and the principle of self-determination. NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders.[15]
In September 2022, Reuters reported that Putin's envoy on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak had struck a provisional deal that would satisfy Russia's demand for Ukraine to stay out of NATO, but the plan was rejected by Putin who preferred a full-scale military invasion.[19] After Russia declared it had annexed four regions of Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that these additional annexations must be recognized before any negotiations.[20] In April 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he wanted any negotiations to focus on creating a "new world order" to counter the hegemony of the United States.[21] In January 2024, Putin again made statements which suggested, according to the Institute for the Study of War, that his "maximalist objectives in Ukraine" remained unchanged, "which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender". He again called for the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.[22]
Security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent future aggression
A multilateral peace conference and peace treaty
Two months before the invasion, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba dismissed the idea that declaring neutrality would prevent Russian aggression. He noted that Ukraine was already a neutral country in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea and invaded the Donbas.[26] In negotiations during March and April 2022, Ukraine was willing to consider a neutral status—wherein Ukraine would not join any military alliances or host forces of other nations on its territory—if it received security guarantees from its European allies.[27] Reacting to Russian attacks on civilian targets later that year, Kuleba said, "There can be no 'neutrality' in the face of such mass war crimes."[20]
In August 2022, Zelenskyy said that he would not agree to a ceasefire that would freeze the conflict while Russia occupied 22% of Ukraine: "We explained that there will be no Minsk-3, Minsk-5, or Minsk-7. We will not play these games, we have lost part of our territories this way ... it is a trap".[28] In September 2022, after Russia proclaimed it had annexed large swathes of Ukraine, Zelenskyy signed NATO application papers.[14] Ukraine has sought security guarantees as interim measures prior to NATO accession, but there is no consensus within NATO about such an arrangement.[29] In June 2023, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was not ready to negotiate with Russian representatives unless Russia withdrew its troops.[30] He repeated this refusal in January 2024.[31]
Early negotiations (2022–2024)
Initial Russia–Ukraine talks (February–May 2022)
Deputy Kremlin Chief of StaffDmitry Kozak said in 2022 that he had negotiated an agreement with Ukraine within a few days of the invasion.[32] This settlement would have ended hostilities in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. The agreement was however blocked by Putin, who "expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory".[33] A Kremlin spokesman denied the story.[32]
The first meeting was held four days after the start of the invasion, on 28 February 2022, in Belarus. It concluded without result.[34] A second and third round of talks took place on 3 and 7 March 2022[35][36] on the Belarus–Ukraine border.[37][38] A fourth and fifth round of talks were held on 10 and 14 March in Antalya, Turkey.[39][40]
First round (28 February 2022)
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko agreed on 27 February that a Ukrainian delegation would meet with Russian officials on the Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River, without preconditions.[41] It was reported that Lukashenko assured Zelenskyy that all planes, helicopters, and missiles on Belarusian territory would remain on the ground during the negotiations.[42]
Talks began on 28 February, near the Belarusian border. The Ukrainian president's office said that the main goals were to call for an immediate ceasefire, and for Russian troops to be withdrawn from Ukraine.[43] It concluded with no immediate agreements.[44]
Second round (3 March 2022)
On 3 March, the second round of peace talks began. Both sides agreed to open humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians.[45] Russia's demands were Ukraine's recognition of Russian-occupied Crimea, independence for separatist-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk, and "de-militarisation" and "de-Nazification". Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that while his country was ready for talks to resume, Russia's demands had not changed.[16][46]
On 5 March, Naftali Bennett flew to Moscow and held three hours of meetings with Putin, then flew to Germany and held meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Bennett spoke in advance with Zelenskyy, who had previously asked for his help mediating. He also coordinated with the US, France and Germany.[47] According to Al Monitor, the meetings were instigated by Scholz who made a brief visit to Israel on 3 March and held a long one-on-one meeting with Bennett, which produced the mediation idea.[48]
On 6 March, Ukrainian official Denys Kireyev was found dead after being accused of committing 'treason' and working for Russia. Barely a week after attending the first round of peace talks, images of Kireyev's corpse began circulating.[49]
A third round of negotiations began on 7 March, amidst ongoing fighting and bombing.[50]Dmitry Peskov restated Moscow's demands, that Ukraine should agree to change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, accept that the Crimea was Russian territory, and recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states; he claimed that Russia was ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv agreed to these conditions.[51] Although a deal had not been reached yet, Ukrainian negotiator and advisor to the president Mykhailo Podoliak tweeted that "there were some small positive shifts regarding logistics of humanitarian corridors."[36][52] However, the day before, a Ukrainian negotiator was shot amid claims of spying for Russia.[53]
Antalya Diplomacy Forum (10 March 2022)
On 10 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba met for talks in Antalya, Turkey with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu as mediator, in the first high-level contact between the two sides since the beginning of the invasion.[39] Ukraine had attempted to negotiate a 24-hour ceasefire to provide aid and evacuation to civilians, especially in Mariupol.[54] After two hours of talks, no agreement was reached.[55] Airstrikes on the port city continued.[56]
Fourth round (14–17 March 2022)
In the first government delegation to Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion, the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 15 March 2022.
The fourth round of negotiations began on 14 March via video conference. The talks lasted a few hours and ended without a breakthrough. The two sides resumed talks on 15 March,[40] after which Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the talks as beginning to "sound more realistic".[58]
By 16 March, Mykhailo Podoliak was assigned as the chief negotiator for the Ukrainian peace delegation, who indicated that peace negotiations of a 15-point plan would involve the retraction of Russian forces from their advanced positions in Ukraine, along with international guarantees for military support and alliance in case of renewed Russian military action, in return for Ukraine not pursuing further affiliation with NATO.[59]
The two sides again resumed talks on 16 March.[58] Later that day, the Financial Times reported that a 15-point plan, first discussed on 14 March, negotiated with the Russians was being identified by Zelenskyy as more realistic for ending the war.[60][61] After the fourth day of talks on 17 March, Russia said an agreement has not been reached.[62] Following the talks, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that Russia was only "pretending to negotiate", in line with a strategy it has used elsewhere.[63]
On 20 March, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the mediator of the talks, described them as "making progress". Referring to his role as "an honest mediator and facilitator", he gave little further detail.[64]
Following his address to the Israeli parliament, Zelenskyy thanked Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett for his efforts in encouraging peace talks, and suggested that they might take place in Jerusalem.[65]
Fifth round (21 March 2022)
The fifth round of talks, on 21 March, failed to achieve a breakthrough. Zelenskyy called for direct talks with Putin to end the war.[66] Sergey Lavrov said direct talks between the two presidents would only go ahead once both sides are closer to reaching a settlement.[67]
Renewal of peace talks: 29–30 March 2022
On 28 March, Zelenskyy confirmed that a renewal of peace talk negotiations with Russia would start in Istanbul on 29 March, with the intention of discussing Ukrainian neutrality, along with the repudiation of any claims for Ukrainian NATO membership in the future.[68] On 29 March, Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, indicated in agreement with French minister Le Drian that any Russian offers of peaceful negotiation about Ukraine, or withdrawal from Kyiv, should be regarded with diplomatic skepticism, based on a history of Russian unreliability in similar peace negotiations with other countries.[69][63]
Ahead of the 29 March meeting Turkish presidentRecep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Ukraine was ready to agree to 4 out of Russia's 6 demands.[70] He claimed Ukraine was prepared to renounce NATO membership and to make Russian Ukraine's second official language.[70] According to Erdoğan Ukraine was not prepared to recognise the Russian occupation of Crimea or parts of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.[70] Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees along the lines of NATO Article 5. The proposals also included a 15-year consultation period on the status of Russian-annexed Crimea and return of all Russian forces to their pre-invasion positions.[27] Russia's Ministry of Defense announced "drastic reduction of military activity" on the Kyiv and Chernihiv fronts, which, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky clarified, was not tantamount to a ceasefire.[71][72] In a televised meeting with military bloggers on 13 June 2023 the Russian president Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia and Ukraine had come on that day to "a good agreement on how to resolve the current situation by peaceful means" but then the Ukrainians "threw it away" after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv following the failed Russian 2022 offensive on Kyiv.[73] According to Putin, Ukraine had agreed to curb Neo-Nazism in Ukraine through the "introducing appropriate restrictions in the law in Ukraine", but this has failed to happen intentionally.[73] On 17 June 2023 Putin showed what he says was a draft agreement with Ukraine, which was discussed in Turkey late March 2022, during a meeting with an African delegation.[74] Putin claimed there were 18 articles, and "everything is spelled out, from combat equipment to the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", and the document was according to Putin signed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation.[75]
In June 2023, Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko claimed, in an interview with Russia-1, that Ukrainian and Russian delegations also discussed the possibility of "some sort of a lease" of Crimea during the March 2022 negotiations.[70]Oleksii Arestovych, a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the talks, also said that Russia was ready for a "political discussion" concerning Crimea.[76] Ukrainian lead negotiator (at this point) Davyd Arakhamia stated in an interview on 24 November 2023 that in March 2022 the Russian delegation had promised Ukraine peace for refusing to join NATO, but that Russia had not given any security guarantees and the Ukrainian delegation did not trust Russia to uphold such an agreement.[75][77][78] Arakhamia also refuted Putin's claim that Ukraine had signed any agreement in Turkey because the delegation did not even have the legal right to sign anything - this could only have happened if a meeting between Ukrainian presidentVolodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin took place.[75] Arakhamia also claimed that Russian delegation had only cared about Ukraine's neutral status and that the other Russian demands had been "cosmetic and political "seasoning" about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah blah blah."[75]
April 2022
Some of the victims of the Bucha massacre, uncovered in early April
On 7 April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the peace deal Ukraine drafted and presented to the Russian government contained "unacceptable" elements. Lavrov said that the proposal diverged from the terms negotiators had agreed on. Mykhaylo Podolyak, a negotiator for Ukraine, said that the comments from Lavrov are a tactic to draw attention away from the war crime accusations against Russian forces. Lastly, Lavrov stated, "Despite all the provocations, the Russian delegation will continue with the negotiation process, pressing for our own draft agreement that clearly and fully outlines our initial and key positions and requirements."[79]
According to a May report from Ukrainska Pravda, the Russian side was ready for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, but it later came to a halt after the discovery of war crimes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in particular the Bucha massacre on 1 April. In a surprise visit to Ukraine on 9 April, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with," and that the collective West was not willing to make a deal with Putin. Three days after Johnson left Kyiv, Putin stated publicly that talks with Ukraine "had turned into a dead end". Naftali Bennett said in 2023 that both sides had wanted a ceasefire, the odds of the deal holding had been 50-50, and that the Western powers backing Ukraine had stopped the deal.[80] Later he expressed doubts regarding the desirability of such a deal.[81][82]Roman Abramovich visited Kyiv in an attempt to resume negotiations. Zelenskyy proposed negotiating two separate documents, one being a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and the other involving Ukraine and the West.[83] Ukrainian lead negotiator (at this point) Davyd Arakhamia stated in an interview on 24 November 2023 that the neutral status of Ukraine was the key Russian demand during the negotiations and that the western countries were aware of the negotiations and advised Ukraine not to rely on security guarantees. Arakhamia also denied that Johnson stopped Kyiv from signing an agreement stipulating Ukraine's neutrality saying that the Ukrainian delegation did not have the authority to do it.[75]
On 11 April, the Chancellor of Austria, Karl Nehammer, visited and spoke with Putin in Moscow in 'very direct, open and hard' talks which were skeptical of the short-term peaceful resolution of the invasion.[84] On 26 April, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres visited Russia for the purpose of speaking with Putin and Lavrov in separate meetings. After the meetings, it was revealed that Putin and Lavrov were skeptical as to reaching any short term resolution of differences between Russia and Ukraine, largely due to very different respective perspectives on the circumstances of the invasion presently being adopted by each of the two nations.[85]
According to U.S. officials who spoke to Foreign Affairs, a provisional agreement was reached in April, whereby the Russian forces would withdraw to the pre-invasion line and Ukraine would commit not to seek to join NATO in exchange for security guarantees from a number of countries. However, in a July interview with Russian state media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that this compromise was no longer an option, saying that even the Donbas was not enough and that the "geography had changed."[86]
Istanbul Communiqué
Russia and Ukraine started peace negotiations the next day after the start of the Russian invasion, on 28 February 2022 in Belarus. Initially, Russia demanded Ukraine's effective capitulation. While the Russian blitzkrieg plan to take Kyiv stalled[citation needed], a series of further meetings took place. By the end of March 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were successful in getting their positions closer together. After failing to blitz-takeover Kyiv and Kharkiv, taking heavy casualties and being forced to retreat off Kyiv oblast, Putin, as reported by the US magazine Foreign Affairs, was ready to put the status of Crimea up for discussion.[87][88][89]
The negotiating teams produced the Istanbul Communiqué, "Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine's Security Guarantees" – a framework of a possible agreement. The treaty would declare Ukraine to be allowed to apply for EU membership and to be a neutral state; put a limit on the size of its military forces; cease NATO membership plans; forbid foreign military bases; and list Russia and Western countries, among which were the US and the UK, as guarantors, obliged to assist Ukraine in case of aggression against it . The status of Crimea would have to be negotiated after 10 to 15 years.[87][88][89]
Following the discovery of the Bucha massacre at the beginning of April 2022 and public anger in Ukraine at the atrocities, Zelenskyy called for Russia to be expelled from the United Nations Security Council, but intense work on the treaty continued. Disagreements still present included Ukraine's military forces' size, and Russia's newly raised demand that in the event of an attack, guarantors come to Ukraine's defence "on the basis of a decision agreed to by all guarantor states", thus giving Russia the possibility to veto a military response by the guarantors. Ukraine rejected the demand,[87][88][89] and the UK informed Ukraine it would not sign on or guarantee any agreement made with Russia.[90][91]
The talks stopped in May 2022 without reaching an agreement. Putin claimed that Ukraine rejected the deal under pressure from the West. Others saw the negotiations only as a distraction to allow regrouping.[87][88][89]
In the magazine Foreign Affairs, political scientists Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko studied several versions of the draft agreement, interviewed participants in the talks and officials in several Western governments, and reviewed publicly statements by and interviews with Ukrainian and Russian officials, and compared their evidence with the timeline of events. They argued that the evidence revealed "mutual willingness" of Zelenskyy and Putin to "consider far-reaching concessions to end the war", and that an agreement providing Ukraine with multilateral security guarantees, permanent neutrality and EU membership in the long term, was "almost finalised", however "the communiqué had not resolved some key issues".[87]
Charap and Radchenko argued that four factors in combination led to failure to achieve agreement. According to them, three factors involved specific stakeholders: the unwillingness of Ukraine's Western partners to provide security guarantees; Ukrainian public anger at the Bucha atrocities; and Zelenskyy's increased confidence in a military solution with the failure of the Russian attempt to take over Kyiv. The fourth factor listed by Charap and Radchenko was that solving geopolitical security issues while ignoring immediate peace processes for detailed security issues such as humanitarian corridors, a ceasefire, and the withdrawal of military forces was overambitious, "aim[ing] too high, too soon".[87]
Polish diplomat Jakub Kumoch criticized the analysis of Charap and Radchenko, arguing that they "accepted the Russian narrative" and that the lack of consensus over borders, disarmament of Ukraine and security guarantees blocked any chance of agreement.[92]
In June 2024, the New York Times published several versions of drafts of the treaty that was undergoing negotiations, and published its analysis based on speaking with more than twelve Ukrainian, Russian and Western participants and other people close to the negotiations.[93][94]
May 2022
On 13 May, U.S. Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin initiated a telephone conversation with Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, the first call since 18 February, before the invasion. The call lasted about an hour with Austin urging an immediate ceasefire.[95][96] On 15 May, Putin convened the Collective Security Treaty Organization, consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Belarus, to discuss issues of peace and border security related to Ukraine and NATO.[97]
President Zelenskyy denounced suggestions by former US diplomat Henry Kissinger that Ukraine should cede control of Crimea and Donbas to Russia in exchange for peace.[98] On 25 May, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not agree to peace until Russia agreed to return Crimea and the Donbas region to Ukraine.[99] Zelenskyy stressed that "Ukrainians are not ready to give away their land, to accept that these territories belong to Russia." He emphasized that Ukrainians own the land of Ukraine.[100]As of September2022[update]. Kissinger changed his initial suggestion and presented it at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2023, where he announced that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an "appropriate outcome" from his perspective.[101]
Stall in talks, Ukrainian offensives, and Russian annexations (May 2022–January 2023)
The four Ukrainian provinces that Russia annexed in September 2022, despite them not being under full Russian control
Ukraine began a counteroffensive in Kherson on 29 August 2022[102] that culminated in the Liberation of Kherson that November,[103] alongside a successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv that began in September.[104] In September, Ukraine rejected a peace plan proposed by Mexico,[105] and Zelenskyy addressed the UN General Assembly, laying out five "non-negotiable" peace conditions: "just punishment" of Russia, protection of life by "all available means allowed under the UN charter", restoring security and territorial integrity, foreign security guarantees for Ukraine, and determination for Ukraine to continue in self-defense.[106][107] Zelenskyy said he saw little chance for peace talks unless Russia withdrew from Ukraine.[108] On 30 September, Russia announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—though it did not did not fully control any of them.[109] In response, Ukraine applied for NATO membership and Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would not hold peace talks with Russia while Putin was president,[109][110] signing a presidential decree declaring negotiations with Putin "impossible".[111][112]
After October 2022 missile strikes on Ukraine, China and India expressed concern and called for de-escalation and dialogue.[113] Erdoğan said that Putin "is now more open to possible peace talks" and Ukraine "was not rejecting such peace talks";[114] Russia said it was ready for renewed dialogue,[115] but Ukraine said it did not believe Russia was truly committed to peace and that it sought only a break to rebuild its military capabilities for future attacks.[116] In October, Elon Musk suggested a peace settlement in which Ukraine would permanently cede Crimea to Russia and assure its continued water supply, drop its bid to join NATO, and submit to UN-supervised referendums on the future of the Russian-annexed territories.[117] Russia welcomed the proposal, though Zelenskyy rebuffed it as "pro-Russia".[118][119][120]
On 7 November, Zelenskyy listed new conditions for negotiating with Russia: "One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, [and] punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again."[121][122]Mark Milley, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, said Ukraine should find a "political solution" with Russia because the war was unwinnable for it by military means;[123][124][125] a later New York Times report said that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted that Ukraine continue fighting in response to Milley's statement.[126] Ukraine presented the detailed 10-point peace proposal later in November at a G20 meeting.[127] In December, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba suggested a February 2023 peace summit at the UN mediated by secretary-general António Guterres to which Russia would only be invited if it faced an international court for war crimes.[128] Later that month, Russian officials said it would only resume peace talks with Ukraine if it recognized Russian sovereignty over the annexed regions.[20][129] Peskov said in January 2023 that "there is currently no prospect for diplomatic means of settling the situation around Ukraine."[130]
Continuing war and international proposals (February–September 2023)
In February 2023, at the 59th Munich Security Conference, Chinese foreign policy chief Wang Yi said Chinese leader Xi Jinping would present a peace proposal for the war in Ukraine.[131][132] On 24 February, China's government published a 12-point paper of "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis", receiving mixed responses from Western leaders.[133][134][135] At the UN General Assembly, China's deputy ambassador to the UN proposed a plan involving a ceasefire, dialogue, security guarantees for Russia, protection of civilians, and the upholding of territorial integrity; China also said that the West had exacerbated the conflict by supplying Ukraine with weaponry.[136][137] Zelenskyy said that "I plan to meet Xi Jinping and believe this will be beneficial for our countries and for security in the world", though a time or place for a meeting was not set.[138] The spokeswoman of Russia's foreign ministry, Maria Zakharova, said Russia appreciated China's efforts to resolve the conflict and was "open to achieving the goals of the special military operation by political and diplomatic means" but that it would entail recognising the "new territorial realities" of Russia's annexations.[139] Peskov said that for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."[140]
Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang said sanctions and political pressure would not resolve the conflict, which he said "seems to be driven by an invisible hand pushing for the protraction and escalation", and that "the process of peace talks should begin as soon as possible".[141] Xi said that China's peace proposal reflected world opinion ahead of his visit to Russia on 20–22 March 2023.[142] Blinken responded by saying "the world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms."[143] On 26 April 2023, over a month after Xi's summit with Putin, Xi Jinping held a phone call with Zelenskyy.[144] The Chinese readout of the Xi–Zelenskyy call included little concrete information about the start of a peace process;[145] in May, European officials criticized China's peace plan as an attempt at "freezing" the conflict in place and splitting the West in pushing Ukraine to a ceasefire.[146] Earlier, Peskov had said that Russia has "to achieve our goals" and that "Right now this is only possible by military means."[147]
Chinese peace envoy Li Hui meets with Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, May 2023
In April 2023, some Ukrainian officials said they would be willing to discuss the status of Crimea.[148][149] That month, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine should "give up Crimea" in exchange for Russian withdrawal from all territory it has occupied since February 2022.[150] Lula condemned Russia's violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity but said that Zelenskyy "cannot want everything";[150][151] he said Brazil advocates a "negotiated political solution to the conflict" and expressed concern over "global consequences" of the war "in terms of food and energy security".[152] Brazilian foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim said "the ideal peace for the Ukrainians and the Russians" required "concessions".[152] Ukraine rejected Lula's proposal.[153] Lula said after visiting China that "the United States needs to stop encouraging war and start talking about peace", to which U.S. national security spokesman John Kirby responded by accusing Lula of "parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda" and suggesting that the U.S. and Europe were responsible for Russia's invasion.[154]
On 7 April, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia rejects the United States-led "unipolar world order" and that peace talks with Ukraine should focus on creating a "new world order".[21] Lula proposed creating a "peace club" of a group of developing countries, including Brazil and China, that would negotiate peace in Ukraine.[155] On 30 April, Pope Francis said the Holy See was taking part in a secret "peace mission" to end the war.[156] In May 2023, UN secretary-general António Guterres said peace negotiations to end the war were "not possible at this moment" because Russia was "completely absorbed in this war" and "convinced that they can win".[157] On 16 May, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa said that a group of African leaders had created a new initiative for peace in Ukraine.[158] Lula said that the countries of the Global South, including Brazil, India, Indonesia, and China, "want peace", but both Putin and Zelenskyy "are convinced that they are going to win the war" and are refusing talks.[159] On 22 May, Danish foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said Denmark was willing to host a summit in July 2023 aimed at "finding peace between Ukraine and Russia", and said that "it is necessary to build interest and involvement from countries like India, Brazil and China."[160]
June–September 2023
On 3 June, Indonesia's defense minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a multi-point peace plan at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore including a ceasefire and establishing a demilitarised zone observed and monitored by the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces.[161] He said that a UN referendum should be held "to ascertain objectively the wishes of the majority of the inhabitants of the various disputed areas".[162] Prabowo's proposal was criticised by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.[163]
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that the peace plans presented by China, Brazil and Indonesia are attempts at mediation on behalf of Russia, saying that "they all currently want to be mediators on Russia's side. That's why this sort of mediation currently doesn't fit for us at all because they aren't impartial."[164] Reznikov said that Ukraine is willing to accept China as a mediator for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine only if Beijing could convince Russia to withdraw from all the territories it has occupied in Ukraine.[165]
In June, a delegation from Africa, including representatives from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda, visited Ukraine and Russia to call for peace.[166] Both Russia and Ukraine welcomed the African leaders' mission, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that "Any peace initiative should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, it should not imply, even in-between the lines, any cessation of Ukrainian territory to Russia. Second, any peace plan should not lead to the freezing of the conflict."[167] After a meeting with African leaders in Kyiv, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdraws its forces from the entire occupied territory.[168] The African delegation was in Kyiv during a Russian missile strike on the city.[169]
On 23 July 2024, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on ways to achieve a peaceful end to the war with Russia. This was the first such bilateral visit since 2012.[170][171]
On 17 June, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa and other African leaders met Russian president Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. Ramaphosa told Putin that the war must end.[172] Putin rejected the delegation's peace plan based on accepting Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.[173]
The Ukrainian Peace Plan has been publicized at a series of meetings that began on 25 June 2023.[174][175] The first conference, which was held in Copenhagen, was attended by delegates from 15 countries.[176]
On 29 July, following a meeting with African leaders at the 2023 Russia–Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russian president Vladimir Putin rejected a ceasefire and peace talks with Ukraine due to the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian forces in Russia-occupied southeastern Ukraine, saying "We cannot cease fire when we are under attack."[177]
On 5 and 6 August 2023 Saudi Arabia hosted multinational peace talks attended by 40 countries (including China) in Jeddah focusing on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposed peace plan.[178][179] Russia did not participate in the talks.[178] Prior to the summit Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy's chief of staff, said there would be discussions on the Ukrainian Peace Formula, which "contains 10 fundamental points, the implementation of which will not only ensure peace for Ukraine, but also create mechanisms to counter future conflicts in the world".[180] After the summit no joint statement was issued.[178] The participants did agree to create working groups to develop details of key themes prominent in Zelenskyy's proposed peace plan (that calls for Russian troops to withdraw from all of Ukraine's territory as part of a peace deal) while a parallel ambassadors group would continue technical work on the issues.[178]
On 27 September 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with TASS that Russia was "ready to make agreements" on Ukraine if they would "take the situation on the ground" and Russian security interests into account.[181] According to Lavrov one of the Russian security interest was "the need to prevent the creation of a hostile Nazi regime near Russian borders."[181] Lavrov also said that Russia did not see "any serious proposals from the West" and he argued that they were promoting Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy 'peace formula' as "the sole basis for negotiations" and that there was "no point in discussing it as it is nothing but an ultimatum."[181] Lavrov also praised the June 2023 African, Arab League (although formally the Arab League never submitted its own peace proposal[178]), Chinese, Brazilian and peace proposals "from other countries" since he claimed "All of them were guided by a sincere desire to facilitate an agreement, which would consider the root causes of the current situation and the need to eliminate them, and will also ensure equal security for all parties."[181]
Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said that sending more and more weapons to Ukraine has only encouraged more killings and endless war, and instead efforts should be made to reach a cease-fire and push Russia and Ukraine toward peace talks. In September 2023, he stated in an interview: "Why don't we force the warring parties, use the weight of the EU and the U.S. to make them sit down and find some sort of compromise that would guarantee security for Ukraine?"[182][183] He praised the peace plans to end the war put forward by the Vatican, Brazil and China.[184] Fico said his government would do everything possible to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.[185]
Putin's peace terms and ceasefire proposals (October 2023–June 2024)
In October 2023, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group began confidential talks with Ukrainian officials over the broad outline of possible peace talks.[186] Later that month, delegates from 65 countries met in Malta to discuss Ukraine's peace plan.[187][188][189] In November, Zelenskyy rejected peace talks; he said he is "not ready to speak with the terrorists, because their word is nothing", and that "the world can switch to diplomacy" only if Russia withdraws from Ukraine.[190] French president Emmanuel Macron said Russia was committing "imperialism and colonialism" in Ukraine and that France and other countries had the "duty" to help Ukraine's defense, but said that maybe the time would come eventually for fair peace negotiations and a solution with Russia.[191] Putin said Russia was always "ready for talks" to end the "tragedy" of the war and blamed Ukraine for rejecting peace with Russia.[192] The next month, representatives of 83 states and three international organizations met in Kyiv to discuss the implementation of Ukraine's ten-point peace plan.[193] On 15 December, Putin said in his annual press conference that "there will only be peace in Ukraine when we achieve our aims" of "denazification, demilitarisation and [Ukraine's] neutral status".[194] He said that Ukraine did not give the now-annexed regions "the attention they were due" and that he would work to integrate them into Russia's "economic and social life".[195]
The New York Times reported in December 2023 that Putin had been signaling through intermediaries since at least September 2022 that "he is open to a ceasefire that freezes the fighting along the current lines";[196][197] a former senior Russian official told the Times that Putin "is willing to stop at the current positions" but is "not willing to retreat one meter."[198] In January 2024, U.S. president Joe Biden and his national security advisor Jake Sullivan privately rejected a proposal from Putin for a ceasefire in the war; Sullivan told Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov that the United States would only discuss a ceasefire with Ukraine's participation.[199][200] Putin's proposal reportedly involved a freeze along the current front lines that allowed Russia to keep occupied territory;[200][201] Russia denied that Putin had secretly proposed a ceasefire.[202] Zelenskyy said he does not feel pressure from allies to agree to a ceasefire[203] and said "any frozen conflict [with Russia] will eventually reignite".[204] Another meeting to discuss Ukraine's peace formula was held in Davos at the World Economic Forum, with delegates from 83 nations.[205][206]
Putin said that he was ready to negotiate with Zelenskyy during a February 2024 interview with Tucker Carlson.[207] Putin did not name any conditions for peace negotiations[208] and avoided a question of whether he would "be satisfied" with the territory Russia currently held.[209] He said that Russia had not yet achieved its war aims because "one of them is denazification", which involved "the prohibition of all kinds of neo-Nazi movements."[210] On 4 March, former Russian president and deputy Security Council chairman Dmitry Medvedev ruled out peace talks with Ukraine's current leadership and said any future Ukrainian government would need to accept Russian occupation, while describing Ukraine as part of Russia.[211][212]Pope Francis said that Ukraine should have talks with Russia "before things get worse", saying that it should "have the courage to negotiate" and that doing so is not equivalent to surrendering.[213] The next week, Putin said it would be "ridiculous" to "negotiate just because [Ukraine is] running out of ammunition", but that he was "ready for a serious conversation" to end the war.[214]
In May 2024, Russian sources told Reuters that Putin was ready to halt the war along the current front lines, saying that Putin believed that the West was trying to derail ceasefire talks.[215][216] Italian defense minister Guido Crosetto said Ukraine must "leave open the possibility of negotiating an immediate truce and initiating peace talks in the coming months."[217] On 24 May, China and Brazil jointly presented a new six-point peace plan that called for an international peace conference "held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans."[218] On 14 June, Putin outlined Russian terms for a ceasefire, including the complete handover of all annexed provinces, including the parts not controlled by Russia;[219] the requirement of Ukraine to become a neutral country, abandon plans to join NATO, and never seek to develop nuclear weapons; respect for the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine; the lifting of sanctions against Russia;[219] and the "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine.[220] Putin said his proposal was "not about freezing the conflict but about its final resolution", and said that if turned down by Ukraine and its allies, then it would be "their political and moral responsibility for continuing the bloodshed".[219] In response, Zelenskyy said that Putin's messages were "ultimatum messages", calling them "the same thing Hitler did, when he said 'give me a part of Czechoslovakia and it'll end here'."[219]
Ukraine peace summit and Zelenskyy's victory plan (June–October 2024)
Later in June, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and Frederick H. Fleitz presented former U.S. president and then-presidential candidate Donald Trump a detailed plan to end the war in Ukraine. The plan proposes a ceasefire along the current front lines, with the U.S. continuing arms supplies to Ukraine if it agreed to a ceasefire and peace talks, and increasing supplies if Russia refused. Ukraine would not have to formally cede territory, but Russia would retain de facto control of occupied territories and Ukraine would postpone its plans for NATO membership. Kellogg and Fleitz said that the plan was motivated by a concern that the war "has become a war of attrition that's going to kill a whole generation of young men."[229][230]
On 2 July, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán before proceeding to visit Russia and China on 5 and 8 July, respectively, self-appointing himself a mediator for ending the war.[231] In August, Ukraine began an offensive into Russia's Kursk oblast; Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said one of the offensive's goals was to "inflict significant tactical defeats" to "convince the Russian Federation to enter into a fair negotiation process",[232][233] potentially to exchange Russian territory for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory in a peace settlement.[233] The Kursk offensive disrupted plans for indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, to halt strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and in Russia. Both countries reportedly planned to send delegations to talks mediated by Qatari officials, but Russian officials postponed the meeting after Ukraine's offensive.[234] Ukrainian officials told The Washington Post that the talks were postponed "due to the situation in the Middle East"[234] but later declined to comment.[235] Some officials had hoped the talks could be the first step toward a comprehensive peace deal.[234] Putin said one week after the Kursk offensive began that he would not negotiate with Ukraine.[235]
In September 2024, Zelenskyy proposed U.S. participation in developing Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for continued support in countering Russian aggression.[236] Ukraine possesses significant deposits of minerals, including lithium, graphite, manganese, and titanium ore. Many of these resources remain unexploited, while some deposits are located in territories occupied by Russia.[237] The next month, Zelenskyy unveiled the Victory Plan for Ukraine,[238] which sought to solve to the conflict with Russia and describe future national defense guarantees.[239] The plan's official goal is "to change the circumstances in such a way that Russia will be forced to peace".[240] It outlined strategies to strengthen Ukraine and potentially end the war, including a renewed request for inclusion in NATO and a robust post-war security framework, assistance in deterring Russian aggression, and a "special agreement on joint investment and use" of Ukraine's natural resources—such as uranium, titanium, and lithium—with the European Union and the United States.[241] After the plan was unveiled, French defense minister Sébastien Lecornu—under instruction from French president Emmanuel Macron—entered into bilateral discussion with Ukraine that month to use the country's rare-earth minerals for France's defense industry.[242]
Calls for renewed peace negotiations (November–December 2024)
Donald Trump won the November 2024 United States presidential election.[243] Trump had pledged during his campaign to negotiate an end to the war "within 24 hours" if elected[244][245]—though gave few details on how he would do so[246]—and had vowed to stop the "endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine".[247][248] After winning the election, he began a push for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.[249] On 7 December, as president-elect, Trump travelled to Paris for the reopening of the Notre-Dame de Paris, and met with both Macron and Zelenskyy to discuss the war,[250][251] and met with other European officials.[252][253]
Two days after Trump's election victory, Sergei Shoigu, Russia's security council secretary, said that the West should recognize Russia as winning the war and begin settlement negotiations.[246] Later that month, Zelenskyy proposed putting Ukraine-controlled territory "under the NATO umbrella" to "stop the hot stage of the war", and said that "Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically."[254] In December, former NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine could temporarily cede Russian-occupied territory in exchange for peace.[255]
Trump assumed office as U.S. president on 20 January 2025.[256] Two days later, he said he would impose further sanctions and high tariffs on Russia if Putin did not make a "deal" to end the war in Ukraine, though said he was "not looking to hurt Russia" and had "always had a very good relationship with President Putin".[257][258] Putin responded that he was ready to negotiate with Trump; Zelenskyy said Putin sought to "manipulate" the U.S. president, though said he believed Putin would not succeed.[259] Trump also said that Zelenskyy "shouldn't have allowed this war to happen", suggesting that Ukraine was partly responsible for the Russian invasion.[259][260]
On 12 February, during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO headquarters, Trump's defense secretary Pete Hegseth said that restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders was "an unrealistic objective" that would "only prolong the war". He also said that while Ukraine must have "robust security guarantees", the U.S. "does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement."[261][262] Hegseth added that the U.S. expected Europe to provide more financial and military assistance to Ukraine while the U.S. focuses on China and its own security. He said that no U.S. troops would be deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine, and that any peacekeeping force should not be under NATO command.[262][263]
Later that day, Trump held a phone call with Putin that he called "highly productive", and that they agreed to "have our respective teams start negotiations immediately" on an end to the war.[264] Trump called Zelenskyy shortly after; Zelenskyy said that "Together with the U.S., we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace".[264] Ukrainian and European officials were concerned by Trump unilaterally opening negotiations with Putin.[265] Zelenskyy said Ukraine would not accept an agreement made without it and Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said that "Nothing can be discussed on Ukraine without Ukraine", while the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said that "Europe must have a central role" in peace negotiations[266] and that any agreement made without Ukraine or the EU would fail.[265] British defense secretary John Healey also said that "There can be no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine."[267]
Trump denied that he was excluding Zelenskyy from the peace process, but said that Ukraine "need[s] to have elections too" and claimed that favorability ratings of Zelenskyy were "not great".[268] In a joint statement, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain re-affirmed their support for Ukraine's "independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity" and said that "Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations" and Ukraine must be given "strong security guarantees".[267] French defense minister Sébastien Lecornu said the U.S. seek "peace through strength" rather than "peace through weakness", and German defense minister Boris Pistorius, said the U.S. should not have given Russia concessions before negotiations began.[267] Russia said in a statement that it was "impressed" with Trump's position compared to that of Biden.[265] The day after the UDCG meeting, Hegseth said that "everything is on the table" in peace negotiations, including Ukrainian membership in NATO and a negotiated return to its pre-2014 borders.[269] U.S. vice president JD Vance added that the U.S. could use "military tools of leverage" if Russia did not negotiate in good faith.[270]
Vance and Zelenskyy led a meeting of U.S. and Ukrainian delegations at the 61st Munich Security Conference, which ran from 14 to 16 February.[271] Zelenskyy also met with several U.S. senators from both major U.S. political parties.[272]Vance's speech the MSC reiterated a call for European leaders to contribute more to Ukraine's defense while the U.S. focuses on China.[273] On 15 February, Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg said that European countries would not be directly involved in U.S. talks with Russia and Ukraine,[274] though the next day U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that both Ukraine and Europe would be part of any "real negotiations" to end the war,[275] and Trump's other envoy, Steve Witkoff, rejected concerns that Ukraine or Europe would be excluded from peace talks.[276] NATO secretary general Mark Rutte said that European countries needed to create their own plan if they wished to play a major role in a peace settlement,[274][277] and Zelenskyy called for the creation of a unified European army to challenge Russia.[278]
On 18 February, American and Russian delegations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for talks to develop a framework for further peace negotiations.[279] The U.S. delegation was led by Rubio, joined by Witkoff and Michael Waltz, the U.S. national security advisor.[280][281] The Russian delegation was led by foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and presidential advisor Yuri Ushakov.[282] The day prior, several European leaders met in Paris to discuss the war in Ukraine and Trump's peace efforts, including a proposal to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.[283][284] However, at the summit Lavrov rejected any NATO peacekeeping force and said that "the expansion of NATO, the absorption of Ukraine by the North Atlantic Alliance, is a direct threat to the interests" of Russia.[283] As a result of the summit, the U.S. and Russia agreed to restore staffing at each other's embassies[285][286] and to explore the "economic and investment opportunities" that could arise as a result of a peace settlement in Ukraine.[283] China praised the peace talks.[287][288]
Trump said that he was "very disappointed" in Ukraine being "upset" about not being invited to the summit because it "had a seat for three years and a long time before that", and said he would not be opposed to European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine.[289] The summit was also intended to precede a future meeting between Putin and Trump,[290] which Rubio said would "largely depend on whether we can make progress on ending the war in Ukraine."[291] Rubio said Trump was trying to discern whether Russia was serious about wanting an end to the war, and that "the only way" to find out was "to test them, to basically engage with them and say, 'Okay, are you serious about ending the war? And if so, what are your demands? Are your public demands and your private demands different?"[292] After the summit, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said his country would be the "ideal host" for future talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S., saying that both Russia and Ukraine view Turkey as a "reliable mediator".[293]
After Zelenskyy's October 2024 "victory plan" introduced the idea of transactional opportunities with Ukraine's natural resources,[294][295] Trump said in early February 2025 that continued U.S. support for Ukraine would be conditional on the U.S. getting revenue from Ukraine's rare minerals.[296] Zelenskyy proposed U.S. participation in developing Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for continued U.S. support to defend against Russia.[297] On 17 February, reports emerged that the Trump administration had asked that the U.S. be given ownership of half of Ukraine's mineral and oil resources,[298] which Zelenskyy rejected reportedly because it did not offer Ukraine clear security guarantees.[298][299] Trump had also demanded that Ukraine pay the U.S. US$500billion in compensation for U.S. support during the war[300]—the U.S. supplied Ukraine only US$182billion from 2022 to 2024[301]—and Trump later said that the U.S. had contributed US$350billion to Ukraine.[302]
On 18 February, Trump said that Ukraine "could have made a deal" to avoid the war and that they "should have never started it."[303][304] The next day, Trump said that Ukraine should have new presidential elections—elections scheduled for 2024 could not be held because Ukraine's constitution forbids elections during martial law—and claimed Zelenskyy's approval ratings were only 4 percent;[304] Zelenskyy replied by saying that Trump was living in a Russian "disinformation bubble".[303][305] Trump called Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" on social media,[306][307] and later said that he was negotiating "with no cards" for three years and "nothing got done".[308] Trump said that Russia did attack Ukraine, but that Zelenskyy and Biden were at fault for failing to prevent the invasion.[309][310] Trump's comments were criticized by U.S. allies:[307] Both Macron and British prime minister Keir Starmer said Zelenskyy was Ukraine's "democratically elected leader".[311][312] Macron said that this was "not the case for Vladimir Putin, who has been killing his opponents and manipulating his elections for a long time",[312] and Starmer added that it is "perfectly reasonable" for Ukraine to suspend elections during wartime.[311] German chancellor Olaf Scholz called Trump's comments "false and dangerous".[307]
Macron visited Trump in Washington, D.C., on 24 February, during which he said that a truce between Russia and Ukraine could be agreed to in the coming weeks.[315] Trump said he wanted the war to end as quickly as possible and supported the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Macron said that a truce should be negotiated first, and that any subsequent peace agreement should include security guarantees for Ukraine.[316] Starmer visited Trump two days later on 27 February.[317] Starmer had previously said that he is "ready and willing" to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine if there is a deal to end the war with Russia[318] to ensure that the end of the war, would not "cannot merely become a temporary pause before Putin attacks again."[319] While Starmer and Trump both praised each other and Trump signaled approval of much of what Starmer had asked of him, he did not convince Trump to promise a U.S. military backstop for a European-led peacekeeping force.[317]
Trump had said on 24 February that the U.S. and Ukraine were close to an agreement "where we get our money back over a period of time."[301] On 25 February, negotiators for the two countries created a draft Ukraine–United States mineral resources agreement.[320][321] The draft agreement did not contain explicit future U.S. security guarantees to Ukraine and would establish an investment fund for Ukraine's post-war reconstruction jointly owned by the two countries.[320][322][323] Zelenskyy called the deal a "framework" to be finalized during a 28 February in-person meeting with Trump.[320]
Zelenskyy met Trump on 28 February in the White House. He sought to discuss the minerals agreement, push Trump to provide future U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, and restore their strained relationship.[324][325] The meeting was preceded by tensions between the Trump administration, which wanted Ukraine to make concessions to Russia to swiftly end the war, and the Zelenskyy government, which distrusted Russia's commitment to abide by agreements without U.S. security guarantees.[326][327][328] During the press brief in the Oval Office, significant tension between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Vance arose. Vance said that diplomacy was the only way to end the war, to which Zelenskyy responded by saying that Putin had not respected previous ceasefires with Ukraine.[329][330] Trump intervened to tell Zelenskyy he was acting disrespectfully, accusing him of "gambling with World War III" and refusing peace talks.[330] The visit abruptly ended with Zelenskyy and the rest of the Ukrainian delegation being asked to leave the White House, while the minerals deal—for which Trump and Zelenskyy had scheduled a signing ceremony for later that day—went unsigned.[330][331]
On 29 February, the day after the Trump–Zelenskyy meeting, The Washington Post reported that Trump was considering halting all military aid to Ukraine.[332] The U.S. suspended all military aid to Ukraine on 3 March,[333] for which Trump cited dissatisfaction with Zelenskyy's commitment to peace negotiations with Russia, and the U.S. government said the pause was necessary to ensure that U.S. aid was "contributing to a solution" rather than prolonging the conflict.[334] On 2 March, Zelenskyy said to the British media that he believes the relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine can be restored and that he was ready to sign the Ukraine–U.S. minerals agreement,[335][336] and that it was best to "leave [the Trump meeting] to history."[337] During his speech to the U.S. Congress on 4 March, Trump addressed Zelenskyy with a more conciliatory message,[338] and mentioned that Zelenskyy was ready to sign the minerals deal and that he would ensure a quick settlement to the war.[338][339] On 5 March, the U.S. halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine,[340] which U.S. Central Intelligence Agency director John Ratcliffe suggested was temporary, saying that "the pause I think will go away".[341]
On 2 March, international leaders convened at the London Summit on Ukraine hosted by the United Kingdom. Starmer had called the summit to draft a peace plan for Ukraine that can then be brought to Trump, and to create a "coalition of the willing" of European nations willing to defend Ukraine that could present the plan.[342][343] Leaders present at the London Summit were Starmer, Zelenskyy, Macron, the leaders of thirteen other EU member states, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, European Council president António Costa, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO secretary general Mark Rutte.[344][345][346] Zelenskyy also met with King Charles III while in the United Kingdom.[343] During the summit, Starmer and Macron proposed a limited one-month truce in Ukraine that could be made effective immediately, and during which negotiations on a long-term settlement with security guarantees for Ukraine could be held.[347]
Ceasefire negotiations
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations at a summit in Jeddah, March 2025
On 11 March, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia,[348] during which Ukraine accepted the U.S.'s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.[349] As part of the agreement, the Trump administration resumed all military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while Rubio said that a peace agreement now relied on Russia's approval of the ceasefire, saying that "The ball is now in their court."[349][350][351] Pro-Kremlin Russian Senator Konstantin Kosachev responded by saying that "Russia is advancing [on the battlefield], so it will be different with Russia. Any agreements should be on our terms, not American."[352] President Zelenskyy's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said after the U.S.-Ukraine summit in Jeddah that "the key is now in Russia's hands. And the whole world will see who truly wants peace and who only talks about it."[353] Macron, Starmer and other European leaders welcomed the agreement between the United States and Ukraine for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.[354]
On March 13, Putin stated there were issues which needed to be solved before Russia could agree to the proposed ceasefire.[355] Later the same day, Witkoff, in his capacity as Trump's envoy, met with Putin in Moscow.[356]
On March 18, following a phone conversation between Trump and Putin, Russia and Ukraine agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure for one month, and to immediately begin negotiations for a broader ceasefire.[357]
Overview of key negotiation points
Key negotiation points proposed or negotiated since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 including the following.
In a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in May 2022, 82% of surveyed Ukrainians said they opposed any territorial concessions to Russia, even if that meant prolonging the war.[361] Another KIIS poll conducted in September 2022 found that 87% of surveyed Ukrainians opposed any territorial concessions to Russia.[362] A Gallup poll conducted in Ukraine in early September 2022 found that 70% of Ukrainians wanted to continue fighting until they achieve victory, while only 26% favored negotiations to end the war as soon as possible.[363] According to an opinion poll conducted in July 2022, 58% of Ukrainians said that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.[149]
In a survey of 1,200 Ukrainians conducted by KIIS in February 2024, 72% of respondents said that Ukraine should seek a diplomatic way to end the war in addition to a military solution.[364]
43% supported peace negotiations with Russia, while 54% were against.
96% supported an end to the war whereby Russia withdraws from all occupied territories, including 94% of those who supported negotiations.
73% believed that Ukraine will eventually liberate all occupied territories.
65% opposed freezing the war at the current frontline, while 22% were in favor.
60% opposed giving up Ukraine's NATO membership bid as a concession, while 20% were in favor.
83% opposed limits on Ukraine's military as a concession.
86% believed that Russia will attack again even if there is a peace treaty, and 91% believed that Russia's motive for negotiations is to prepare for a new attack.[365][366]
In a survey of Ukrainians conducted by the KIIS between 26 May and 1 June 2024, 58% of respondents said they opposed concessions in negotiations with Russia, down from 80% in May 2022.[367] In a survey by ZN.ua media in July 2024, 44% of Ukrainians supported peace negotiations with Russia.[368]
Polls of Russians
According toasurvey conducted by the Levada Center atthe end ofOctober 2022, 57% ofRussian respondents favored the start of peace talks with Ukraine, and 36% preferred the continuation of hostilities.[369] The Kremlin's analysis concluded that public support in Russia for the war was broad but not deep, and that most Russians would accept anything Putin would call a victory. In September 2023, the head of the VTsIOM state pollster Valery Fyodorov said in an interview that only 10-15% of Russians actively supported the war, and that "most Russians are not demanding the conquest of Kyiv or Odesa."[197]
A poll of Germans conducted by the Forsa and published in January 2023 found that over 80% believe it is more important to end the war through negotiations than for Ukraine to win, with only 18% disagreeing.[370] A YouGov poll showed that in February 2023, 63% of respondents in Sweden wanted to support Ukraine in a war with Russia until Russian troops leave all occupied territories, even if it means prolonging the war. In Denmark, the corresponding figures were 56%; in Britain 53%, in the United States 46%, in Spain 44%; Germany 40%, France 37% and Italy 29%.[371]
Between May and October 2023, US public support for arming Ukraine in its war against Russia decreased. Support for US weapon shipments to Ukraine dropped from 46% to 41% compared to a poll taken in May 2023. Both sides of the political spectrum saw a decline. Since the counteroffensive started in June 2023, Ukrainian forces have only retaken a series of small villages and settlements and are only in control of a small percentage of the territories occupied by Russian forces.[372]
↑ Hodge, Nathan; Lister, Tim; Kottasová, Ivana; Regan, Helen. "Russia launches military attack on Ukraine with reports of explosions and troops crossing border". CNN. Archived from the original on 14 March 2022. Retrieved 15 March 2022. Russian forces have begun an attack on Ukraine, with reports of troops crossing the border to the north and south, explosions in multiple cities including the capital Kyiv and warnings from Russian president Vladimir Putin of bloodshed unless Ukrainian forces lay down their arms.
↑ Roshchina, Olena (28 February 2022). Переговори делегацій України та Росії почалися[Negotiations between the delegations of Ukraine and Russia began]. Українська правда[Ukrainska Pravda] (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 14 March 2022. Retrieved 7 March 2022. Деталі: Переговори відбуваються на Гомельщині на березі річки Прип'ять. Із міркувань безпеки точне місце організатори переговорів не називають.[Details: Negotiations are taking place in the Gomel region on the banks of the Pripyat River. For security reasons, the organizers of the talks did not name the exact location.]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Charap, Samuel; Radchenko, Sergey (16 April 2024). "The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine". Foreign Affairs. ISSN0015-7120. Archived from the original on 23 April 2024. Retrieved 16 April 2024. At the first meeting, the Russians presented a set of harsh conditions, effectively demanding Ukraine's capitulation. This was a nonstarter. But as Moscow's position on the battlefield continued to deteriorate, its positions at the negotiating table became less demanding. ...
↑ Pietrzak, Piotr. "Henry Kissinger's Shift on Ukraine and Its Implications for Russia: The Commencement but Not a Conclusion of the Sixth Great Debate in International Relations." In Analyzing Global Responses to Contemporary Regional Conflicts, edited by Piotr Pietrzak, 133-162. Hershey, PA: IGI Global, 2024. doi:10.4018/979-8-3693-2837-8.ch007
↑ Dutta, Prasanta Kumar; Hart, Sam; McClure, Jon; Rao, Anurag; Zafra, Mariano (26 February 2025). "Ukraine's mineral deal with the US". Reuters. Retrieved 2 March 2025. jointly developing Ukraine's natural resources including rare earths, critical minerals, oil and gas
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