2022 Danish European Union opt-out referendum

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Danish European Union opt-out referendum
Flag of Denmark.svg
1 June 2022 (2022-06-01)

Do you vote yes or no on Denmark being able to participate in the European defence and security co-operation by abolishing the EU defence opt-out?
Results
Choice
Votes %
Check-71-128-204-brightblue.svgYes1,848,24266.87%
Light brown x.svgNo915,71733.13%
Valid votes2,763,95998.62%
Invalid or blank votes38,5581.38%
Total votes2,802,517100.00%
Registered voters/turnout4,260,94465.77%

Folkeafstemning 2022 - Afstemningsomrader.svg
Folkeafstemning 2022 - Opstillingskredse.svg
Results of the referendum
Yes:      50–55%     55–60%     60–65%     65–70%     70–75%     75–80%     80%+
No:      50–55%     55–60%     60–65%

A referendum on the abolition of the defence opt-out, one of the country's opt-outs from the European Union, was held in Denmark on 1 June 2022. [1] [2] [lower-alpha 1] The referendum was announced on 6 March 2022 following a broad multi-party defence agreement reached during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. [3] The referendum resulted in the "Yes" side winning with approximately two-thirds of the vote. [4]

Contents

Background

After the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty in the 1992 referendum, the Edinburgh Agreement was reached, which gave Denmark four opt-outs in the European Union (EU), one of which was on defence matters. The Maastricht Treaty was subsequently ratified in 1993. The defence opt-out meant that Denmark did not participate in the Common Security and Defence Policy or EU military operations. [5] In addition, the opt-out meant that Denmark did not participate in the decision processes in the EU related to military operations. [6]

This is the third referendum to be held in relation to the country's opt-outs. In 2000, the Danish electorate rejected the adoption of the euro as national currency, and in 2015 a proposal to modify the justice opt-out was also rejected. For a referendum to be rejected, a majority of participating voters must vote against, and the voters voting against must represent at least 30% of the electorate; however the parties behind the defence agreement have agreed that the result of the referendum should stand regardless of the turnout. [7]

Campaign

Campaign posters on Nytorv in Alborg, North Jutland AAL Folkeafstemningsplakater Ja Nej Nytorv 20220602 203144 ubt.jpg
Campaign posters on Nytorv in Ålborg, North Jutland

The defence agreement was signed and presented by the leaders of the Social Democrats, Venstre, Socialist People's Party, Social Liberal Party, and the Conservative People's Party. [3] [8] The parties endorsed the agreement, which also included increased defence spending and the aim of ending the country's dependency on Russian gas. Liberal Alliance and the Christian Democrats have also endorsed the "Yes" option, [9] while the Independent Greens voted "Yes" but did not recommend voters what they should vote. [10] The Danish People's Party, New Right, Young Conservatives and the Red–Green Alliance have opposed the abolition of the opt-out, recommending the electorate vote "No". [9]

On 30 March, the Danish Foreign Ministry released two bills (draft laws) for organising the referendum and joining the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). [11] Following this, the wording of the referendum question, which did not mention the European Union nor the opt-out, [lower-alpha 2] was criticised by the Danish People's Party and the Red-Green Alliance. [12] Jeppe Kofod, Denmark's Foreign Minister, defended the wording, emphasising that the vote was about joining the other 26 EU member states. Following the criticism, Kofod announced a changing to the wording on 7 April, which read: "Do you vote for or against Denmark's participation in the European defence and security co-operation by abolishing the EU defence opt-out?" [13]

Concern was raised that eliminating the opt-out and participating in the CSDP could eventually lead to Denmark having to join a European army if one were to be created in the future. Foreign Minister Kofod committed that any such change would require treaty revisions, which would be put to the Danish people for approval in a new referendum. [14]

Television debates

Four major television debates involving the leaders of parties represented in the Folketing were held. [15] [16] [17]

DateOrganisersVenue P Present   S Surrogate   NI Not invited   I Invited  
YesNo
A V F B C I Q Å K M Ø O D
11 May [18] DR1 War Museum, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Arendt [lower-alpha 3]
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund
18 May [16] TV 2 News Dokk1, Aarhus S
Bødskov
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
NININININININIP
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
NI
29 May [19] TV2 Christiansborg, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Karlsmose
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund
31 May DR1 DR Koncerthuset, Copenhagen P
Frederiksen
P
Ellemann
P
Olsen Dyhr
P
Carsten Nielsen
P
Pape
P
Vanopslagh
P
Siddique
P
Rosenkilde
P
Karlsmose
P
Løkke
P
Villadsen
P
Messerschmidt
P
Vermund

Opinion polls

Date(s)Polling agencySampleYesNoUndecidedLead
30 May 2022 Epinion 44%28%19%16%
27–30 May 2022 Voxmeter 1,09153%28%19%25%
2327 May 2022 Voxmeter 2,00851%27%22%24%
1622 May 2022 Voxmeter 45.5%30%24.6%15.5%
9 May 2022 Epinion 38%27%35%11%
6 May 2022 Megafon 1,00939%26%35%13%
20–27 April 2022 Epinion 2,09039%26%35%13%
18–24 April 2022 Voxmeter 39.5%32.1%28.4%7.4%
4–10 April 2022 Voxmeter/Ritzau 38.8%32.4%28.8%6.4%
31 March – 7 April 2022 Epinion 2,10236%27%37%9%
28 March – 3 April 2022 Voxmeter/Ritzau 1,00739.2%35.8%25%3.4%
22–28 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,00040.3%35.4%24.3%4.9%
14–20 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,50938.2%30.9%30.9%7.3%
6–20 March 2022 Wilke 1,00042%30%28%12%
8–15 March 2022 Epinion 1,02038%23%39%15%
7–11 March 2022 Voxmeter 1,50944.2%28.7%27.1%15.5%
7–8 March 2022 Megafon 2,05455%23%22%32%
6 March: The government of Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announces a referendum on the Danish defence opt-out to be held on 1 June. [8]
3–4 March 2022 [lower-alpha 4] Megafon 1,09249%27%23%22%

Results

The result meant that 43.38% of the registered electorate had voted for the proposal, and 21.49% had voted against.

ChoiceVotes%
For1,848,24266.87
Against915,71733.13
Total2,763,959100.00
Valid votes2,763,95998.62
Invalid votes5,8190.21
Blank votes32,7391.17
Total votes2,802,517100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,260,94465.77
Source: Denmark Statistics [20]

By constituency

Aftermath

Reactions

Exit polls released by national broadcasters DR and TV 2 immediately after polls closed at 20:00 CEST (18:00 UTC) showed a large majority of the electorate had voted "Yes". [22] [23] This was the first time that Denmark had ever abolished one of its EU opt-outs. [24] This was the largest share of the vote ever received by the "Yes" side in an EU-referendum, with the result being described by some as a landslide. [23] The turnout at 65.8% was noted as one of the lowest of any EU referendum, with only the 2014 Danish Unified Patent Court membership referendum having had a lower turnout. [25] Election scholars expressed concern and attributed the low turnout to some parties being hesitant to campaign, as well as the opinion polls prior to the election showing the yes side having a large lead.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commented that she was "very very happy" for the result, and said that Denmark had sent a very important signal to its allies and a clear signal to Vladimir Putin. [24] She also praised the cooperation with the other parties that had advocated in favour of the referendum. Frederiksen emphasised that there were no plans to abolish Denmark's remaining opt-outs, promising that the referendum had been "about the defence opt-out and nothing else". Venstre leader Jakob Ellemann-Jensen said that the vote sent a clear result that other countries could count on Denmark. He then focused on the next Danish general election, saying that the country's right-wing should work together to give Denmark a new government. [26]

Morten Messerschmidt commented that the result showed that the Danish People's Party was alive. [26] He said that many people's votes were "influenced by the war in Ukraine". Political Spokesperson of Red–Green Alliance, Mai Villadsen, said that she had "very great respect" for the result of the election. [27] She mentioned that many of the party's voters had voted "Yes", and promised that the party would remain engaged with defence policy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result and said that Denmark and the EU "would benefit from the decision". [28] French President Emmanuel Macron said that it was a "fantastic news for our Europe" and that "we are stronger together". [29]

Developments

With the end of the EU defence opt-out effective from 1 July 2022, the Danish government had the power to request Denmark's participation in the European Defence Agency and Permanent Structured Cooperation. [30] On 23 March 2023, the Danish Parliament approved participation in the EDA and PESCO. [31] [32] PESCO members voted on Danish participation on 23 May 2023, confirming Denmark's participation in PESCO, Denmark becoming its 26th member. [33]

Notes

  1. The vote did not take place on the Faroe Islands or Greenland, which are not part of the European Union. See Faroe Islands and the European Union, Greenland and the European Union, and withdrawal of Greenland from the European Communities for details.
  2. Do you vote for or against Denmark's participation in the European defence and security co-operation?
    Danish: Stemmer du ja eller nej til, at Danmark kan deltage i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar? (Forslag til lov om Danmarks deltagelse i det europæiske samarbejde om sikkerhed og forsvar)
  3. Arendt resigned as party leader during the campaign on 17 May.
  4. The wording of the question differs from the referendum: "Drop the defence opt-out and join a joint EU army?"

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Further reading