Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War

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The term red lines has seen use in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and is a veiled threat of engagement that is intended to warn an opponent or observer not to interfere or undertake in an action or behaviour that would "cross the red line."

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On 21 April 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a speech in which he repeatedly warned the West of red lines that Russia would not accept. The warnings were repeated on many occasions up to the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. [1]

To some experts, the number of red lines that have been crossed reveal the inability for belligerents involved in the war to project power internationally. [2]

Russia's red lines

The mention of red lines have been in common use since the very start of the renewed conflict in Ukraine to justify the war. In February of 2022, President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation stated that the United States and its Western partners had crossed a red line with regard to Ukraine, which resulted in the consequence of Russia having to undertake its "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine due of the threat imposed from Ukraine to the very existence of the Russian Federation. [3]

Crossing a red line to the Russian Federation is often identified as being an action that damages Russian national interests. Such actions may include the imposition of sanctions, the freezing of Russian or affiliated nation funds, and the donation of military goods to its perceived adversaries or other.

While commonly used by the Russian Federation in international politics, Russia has simultaneously used the red line phrase in shaping narratives aimed at domestic audiences.

In June 2023 President Putin said that Russia would keep responding to breaches of its red lines. [4] President Putin has been consistent with regard to the threat of nuclear action being used solely in the event of crossing the red line of an existential threat to the state. [5]

In 2023 Russia made 15 official "red line" statements, compared to 24 in 2022. [6]

Usage of red line warnings

Russia has used the phrase "red line" often, and because some of these lines have been crossed without major repercussions, some believe that Russia has devalued the impact of their threats, with the threats appearing more as bluffs. [7]

There may be an actual red line that Russian and the Kremlin really have, but it is largely unclear what exactly it consists of. [7]

Some of the red line threats from Russia may in fact be bluffs solely to slow the supply of resources to Ukraine, making the West consider their options and delaying action. [8]

Others may be used just to show an element of escalation has taken place once a line is crossed. Red lines are nearly always soft, variable and adjustable rather than hard-line positions that are immutable. [9]

In diplomacy, both Russia and Ukraine have mentioned red lines when referring to acceptable peace terms. One such example of a diplomatic Russian red line leaves Russia keeping Crimea, and another Ukrainian red line sees all Russian forces leave territory that belonged to Ukraine on 31 December 1991. [10] [11] These red lines appear incompatible.

Tacit rules

As time has progressed in the war, a set of tacit rules has emerged which fit between current operations and red lines and affect the rule creator. [12] [8]

Examples of such tacit rules include:

Under these stated rules, Russia would cross a red line if they attacked a NATO country, and NATO would cross a self-imposed red line if they sent troops into Ukraine. The above aim to limit an expansion of the war; however, it is not all one-sided, as other tacit rules are:

Identified red lines

Russian red lines

Date notifiedRed lineDate brokenConsequencesRef.
2014Crimea23 Aug 2023 [19] [20]
September 2021Ukraine not joining NATOnot broken [21] [20] [22]
September 2021NATO military infrastructure not to be deployed in Ukrainenot broken [21] [20] [22]
September 2021No deployment of soldiers to Ukraine12 April 2023 [23] [22]

[24] [25]

December 2021No weapons to UkraineFebruary 2022Threats over non disguised intervention by NATO [23] [26] [27]
24 February 2022“Interference” in Ukraine by outside powers24 February 2022Reduction in gas supply to the west [20]
February 2022NATO troops and missiles to be withdrawn from Russia's western borderFebruary 2022 [28]
February 2022NATO to stop eastward expansion and reverses back to position in 1997February 2022 [28]
March 2022No introducing a “no-fly” zonenot broken [29]
March 2022No more western arms to UkraineMarch 2022Convoys will be considered legitimate targets [30] [20]
March 2022No MiG-29 fighter jetsMarch 2023Supplied MiG's will be destroyed [8]
April 2022No foreign intervention in warnot broken [31] [20]
June 2022No long-range missilesJune 2022New targets hit by Russian missiles [32] [20]
June 2022No Western made missiles to be fired into RussiaDec 2023 [33]

[34] [35]

August 2022No supplying old Soviet tanks to UkraineAugust 2022 [36]
September 2022Germany's supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine crosses a red lineSeptember 2022 [37]
September 2022Russian setbacks on battlefield will result in nuclear holocaustSeptember 2022 [38]
September 2022Not to threaten the territorial integrity of Russia
(as its borders were prior to 2014)		22 May 2023 [38]

[39] [40]

September 2022Not to supply longer range battlefield missiles (greater than HIMARS's current 80 kilometres (50 mi))May 2023Red line pulled back [41] [42]
November 2022Not to supply Patriot Missile system April 2023 [43]
January 2023No modern western tanks to be supplied to UkraineJanuary 2023Comments about it being an "extremely dangerous" action [44] [42]
May 2023No F-16 fighter jetspendingComments about it being a "colossal risk" [45]
June 2023No HIMARS or Storm Shadow missiles to attack Russian territory

(as its borders were prior to 2014)

not broken [6]
September 2023No US ATACM longer range missiles to attack Russian territoryOctober 2023Putin said in October, US deliveries of the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine was "another mistake" [46] [47] [48]

  Current red lines

Western red lines

Date notifiedRed lineDate brokenConsequencesRef.
Through 2021Russia not to invade UkraineFebruary 2022Immediate sanctions [49]
February 2022Threats against a NATO countrynot broken [50]
February 2022Not to surrender the independent right of any country to apply to join NATOnot broken [51]
March 2022No chemical weaponsnot broken [52]
International lawMurder and abduction of children 2022-2023 International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova [53]
NATO rulesInterfering with civilian ships belonging to NATO countries in the Black Sea
Russian warships stop and board NATO member civilian ship (Turkish) in international waters		August 2023NATO warships from Romania and Bulgaria patrol and sweep Ukrainian grain corridor for mines [54]

Tactics used to contravene red lines

The handover of the first Leopard 2 tanks provided by Poland to Ukraine in February 2023 Denis Shmigal' ta Mateush Moravets'kii zustrili v Ukrayini pershi tanki Leopard 2, nadani Pol'shcheiu 06.jpg
The handover of the first Leopard 2 tanks provided by Poland to Ukraine in February 2023

Red lines come in differing levels of severity. Some of these are bluffs, with parties to the conflict having given many red lines that were transcended without issue during the last decade. To counter red line policies, a number of tactics have been employed by the belligerents and non-belligerents alike. Such counter-measures aim to allow the crossing of red lines with significantly fewer or no consequences. [8] [55] [56] [ original research? ]

Effect of red lines

Red lines set by Russia have had an effect. The United Kingdom, apart from refusing to have British soldiers participate, have supplied most pieces of equipment and undertaken training missions that they are in a position to do, however many other countries have shown timidity and concern over the red lines, resulting in a lack of, or delay in, providing assistance to Ukraine. [65]

Russia appears to generally abide by the Western red lines, although certain chemical weapons deployed are pushing the boundaries, [66] as is the treatment of civilians, especially Ukrainian children.

Red lines of non-belligerent states

Many countries outside of the direct belligerents active in the Russo-Ukrainian war have interests within it. As a result, this has caused foreign parties such as the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and the People's Republic of China to establish their own so-called red lines.

When the international community refers to the crossing of "red lines" it tends to be limited to the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and the supply of other lethal weapons. Below, a small list of such red lines has been provided.

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  2. ↑ "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  3. ↑ "Russian Attack on Ukraine: Turning-point in the history of Euro-Atlantic Security breaches of its red lines". 3 March 2022.
  4. ↑ "Putin ponders: Should Russia try to take Kyiv again?". 14 June 2023.
  5. ↑ "The Russo-Ukrainian War and the Durability of Deterrence". 4 December 2023.
  6. 1 2 "ANALYSIS: The Evolution of Russia's 'Red Lines' and Nuclear Threats". 26 October 2023.
  7. 1 2 "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  8. 1 2 3 4 "Arming Ukraine without crossing Russia's red lines". 6 April 2023.
  9. ↑ "Putin Has No Red Lines". 1 January 2023.
  10. ↑ "Blinken: Crimea a 'red line' for Putin as Ukraine weighs plans to retake it". 15 February 2023.
  11. ↑ ""UNTIL WE LIBERATE CRIMEA, WE CANNOT TALK ABOUT LONG-TERM PEACE AND SECURITY FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS." – DENYS SHMYHAL, PRIME MINISTER OF UKRAINE" . Retrieved 25 August 2023.
  12. ↑ "Tacit rules to avoid a NATO-Russia war". 14 March 2022.
  13. ↑ "Deterrence and defence". 19 July 2023.
  14. ↑ "NATO has no plans to send troops into Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 24 February 2022.
  15. ↑ "NATO won't establish no-fly zone over Ukraine, Stoltenberg says". 4 March 2022.
  16. ↑ "The United States and Allies Sharing Intelligence with Ukraine". 9 May 2022.
  17. ↑ "U.S., NATO countries announce massive weapons package for Ukraine". 20 January 2023.
  18. ↑ "NATO Weapons Must Not Be Used to Attack Russian Territory, Says Scholz". 5 February 2023.
  19. ↑ "Ukrainian Intelligence Announces Landing Operation in Crimea". Live UA Map.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Russia's "ultimate" red line is as hollow as the first ten". 3 October 2023.
  21. 1 2 "Ukraine: Russia's "red line"". 18 February 2022.
  22. 1 2 3 "NATO expansion in Ukraine a 'red line' for Putin, Kremlin says". 27 September 2021.
  23. 1 2 "Putin's 'red line' over Ukraine: a new test of European and transatlantic resolve". December 2021.
  24. ↑ Adams, Paul (12 April 2023). "Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground". BBC. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  25. ↑ Sabbagh, Dan; Connolly, Kate (4 Mar 2024). "British soldiers 'on the ground' in Ukraine, says German military leak". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  26. ↑ "Who supplies weapons to Ukraine?". 14 February 2022.
  27. ↑ "NATO Countries Pour Weapons Into Ukraine, Risking Conflict With Russia". 2 March 2022.
  28. 1 2 "Will markets take the strain from the Russia-Ukraine crisis?". 24 February 2022.
  29. ↑ "Putin says sanctions over Ukraine are like a declaration of war". 5 March 2022.
  30. ↑ "Western arms convoys to Ukraine are 'legitimate targets,' Russia warns". 11 March 2022.
  31. ↑ "Ukraine war: Putin warns against foreign intervention". 27 April 2022.
  32. ↑ "Putin warns United States against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles". 5 June 2022.
  33. ↑ "Russia warns West of weapons repercussions, pounds Ukraine". 2 June 2022.
  34. ↑ "Shelling kills 21 in Russian city of Belgorod following Moscow's aerial attacks across Ukraine". Associated Press. Dec 31, 2023. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  35. ↑ Krasteva, Gergana (Feb 15, 2024). "Ukraine's 'Vampire' projectiles strike Russian shopping centre, killing six". METRO. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  36. ↑ "Ukrainians Thank North Macedonia For Supply Of Soviet-Era Tanks". 6 August 2022.
  37. ↑ "Russian Envoy Warns Germany about Passed 'Red Line'". 12 September 2022.
  38. 1 2 "Biden shows growing appetite to cross Putin's red lines". 1 June 2023.
  39. ↑ "Belgorod: Russian paramilitary group vows more incursions". BBC. 25 May 2023. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  40. ↑ Smith, Patrick (May 25, 2023). "Pro-Ukraine border raid exposes Russian defenses and divisions". NBC News. Retrieved 19 March 2024.
  41. ↑ "Russia says longer-range U.S. missiles for Kyiv would cross red line". 15 September 2022.
  42. 1 2 "Russian hawks push Putin to escalate as US crosses more 'red lines'". 12 September 2023.
  43. ↑ "Don't arm Ukraine with Patriot missiles, Ex-Russian president Medvedev warns 'criminal entity' NATO". 29 November 2022.
  44. ↑ "Russia fumes at West's decision to send tanks to Ukraine, says red lines have been crossed". 25 January 2023.
  45. ↑ "Russia warns West of 'enormous risks' if Ukraine is supplied with F-16 jets". 20 May 2023.
  46. ↑ "Russia warns US not to provide longer-range missiles to Ukraine". 15 September 2023.
  47. ↑ "Ukraine Fires ATACMS Missile at Russian Forces for the First Time". 17 October 2023.
  48. ↑ "Putin calls US supply of ATACMS weapons to Ukraine 'another mistake'". 18 October 2023.
  49. ↑ "Where does Russia sanctions policy go from here?". 17 March 2022.
  50. ↑ "Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?". 23 February 2022.
  51. ↑ "Russia's Aggression Towards Ukraine – the German View: A Conversation with Minister of State Tobias Lindner". 10 February 2022.
  52. ↑ "Ukraine: Nato will respond if Russia uses chemical weapons, warns Biden". 25 March 2022.
  53. ↑ "Arrest warrant may signal the beginning of the end for Putin". 19 March 2023.
  54. ↑ "Russia risks war with NATO in Black Sea, former top commander in Europe warns". 16 August 2023.
  55. ↑ "The West must cross more red lines in the Ukraine war, says Lithuanian president". 12 May 2023.
  56. ↑ "The path to peace in Ukraine runs directly through Putin's red lines". 14 February 2023.
  57. ↑ "Any "red lines" left for Putin?". 31 January 2023.
  58. ↑ "Macron promises 'first Western tanks' for Ukraine". 4 January 2023.
  59. ↑ "UK considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks to fight Russian forces". 9 January 2023.
  60. ↑ "Britain has delivered long-range 'Storm Shadow' cruise missiles to Ukraine ahead of expected counteroffensive, sources say". 12 May 2023.
  61. ↑ "Poland delivers first Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine". 24 February 2023.
  62. ↑ "Media: Spain to deliver first Leopard tanks to Ukraine after Easter". 29 March 2023.
  63. ↑ "Ambassador: UK to provide twice the promised Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine". 27 July 2023.
  64. ↑ "Putin Is Running out of Red Lines". 24 May 2023.
  65. ↑ "Do We Want to Win in Ukraine?". 20 December 2023.
  66. ↑ "A Russian brigade admits dropping tear gas on Ukrainian troops, which would violate the UN Chemical Weapons Convention". 24 December 2023.
  67. ↑ "US ambassador to the UN says China would cross 'red line' by providing lethal aid to Russia". 19 February 2023.
  68. ↑ "Ukraine war: Pressure builds on South Korea to send arms to Kyiv". 8 July 2023.
  69. ↑ "Georgia's future may hinge on Russia's war in Ukraine". 20 March 2023.
  70. ↑ "ran will cross 'red line' with supplies of missiles to Russia - Kuleba". 5 January 2023.
  71. ↑ "China drew nuclear red line for Russia in Ukraine". 6 July 2023.
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