Frozen conflict

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Geopolitics of Eastern Europe and West Asia in 2014, showing the frozen conflict zones of Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Donbas (numbered 1-5), as well as Northern Cyprus (lighter region within Cyprus). The Gaza Strip, Israel, Kosovo, and the West Bank also appear on the map, although they are not highlighted. Frozen conflict zones elsewhere in the world do not appear on this map. Geopolitics South Russia2.png
Geopolitics of Eastern Europe and West Asia in 2014, showing the frozen conflict zones of Transnistria, Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Donbas (numbered 1–5), as well as Northern Cyprus (lighter region within Cyprus). The Gaza Strip, Israel, Kosovo, and the West Bank also appear on the map, although they are not highlighted. Frozen conflict zones elsewhere in the world do not appear on this map.

In international relations, a frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.

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The term has been commonly used for post-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other extended and unresolved territorial disputes. [1] [2] [3] The de facto situation that emerges may or may not match the official position asserted by either party to the conflict. For example, in the Division of Korea, both North Korea and South Korea officially assert claims to the entire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.

Frozen conflicts sometimes result in partially recognized states. For example, the Republic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozen Georgian–Ossetian conflict, is recognized by eight other states, including five UN member states; the other three of these entities are partially-recognized states themselves.

Since aggressors are not defeated, frozen conflicts can be seen as appeasement and rewarding aggression. [4]

Current frozen conflicts

Africa

Western Sahara

Status quo in Western Sahara since 1991 cease-fire: most under Moroccan control (Southern Provinces), with inner Polisario-controlled areas forming the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Western sahara map showing morocco and polisaro.gif
Status quo in Western Sahara since 1991 cease-fire: most under Moroccan control (Southern Provinces), with inner Polisario-controlled areas forming the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since a ceasefire in 1991, although various disturbances such as the Independence Intifada have broken out since then. Control of the territory of Western Sahara remains divided between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front. [5]

Asia

Kashmir

India claims the entire erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir based on an instrument of accession signed in 1947. Pakistan claims Jammu and Kashmir based on its majority Muslim population, whereas China claims the Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin. Kashmir Region November 2019.jpg
India claims the entire erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir based on an instrument of accession signed in 1947. Pakistan claims Jammu and Kashmir based on its majority Muslim population, whereas China claims the Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin.

India and Pakistan have fought at least three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir, in 1947, 1965, and 1999. India claims the entire area of the former princely state of Jammu & Kashmir on the basis of its ruler formally acceding to India [ citation needed ] amidst a Pakistani invasion after partition, and administers approximately 43% of it. Pakistan has also claimed it since the partition—based on its majority Muslim population, and controls approximately 37% of the region while encouraging proxy war tactics in Kashmir. [6] [7] The remaining territory is controlled by the People's Republic of China; some of it was occupied during the Sino-Indian War, and some was conferred on the PRC by Pakistan.

Korean Peninsula

The Korean conflict was frozen from 1953, when a ceasefire ended the Korean War. Both North Korea and South Korea governments claim the entire Korean peninsula, while de facto control is divided along the military demarcation line in the Korean Demilitarized Zone. Both North Korea and South Korea are recognized by the vast majority of other nations, although they do not recognize each other.

Mainland China and Taiwan

The conflict between Mainland China and Taiwan has been frozen since 1949. No armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed and debate continues as to whether the civil war has legally ended. [8] [9] Officially, both the People's Republic of China (PRC) based in Beijing and the Republic of China (ROC) based in Taipei consider themselves to be the sole legitimate government of the entirety of China. [10] While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains a de facto independent administration in Taiwan and several other islands, and the PRC's de facto administration is in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.

Europe

Kosovo

The dispute over the status of Kosovo remains frozen since the end of the Kosovo War, fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) and the ethnically Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army. The Kosovo region has been administered independently by the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo since the war. Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, but it is not recognized by all countries worldwide, as Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory. [11] [12]

Transnistria

Since the ceasefire which ended the Transnistria War (1990–1992), the Russian-influenced breakaway republic of Transnistria has controlled the easternmost strip of the territory of Moldova. The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.

Cyprus

A map of divided Cyprus Cyprus districts named.png
A map of divided Cyprus

The Cyprus dispute has been frozen since 1974. The northern part of Cyprus is under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is not recognized internationally except by Turkey. [13] [14]

Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The Abkhaz–Georgian conflict and Georgian–Ossetian conflict have led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory of Georgia. The 1991–92 South Ossetia War and the 1992–93 War in Abkhazia, followed by the Russo-Georgian War of August 2008, have left the Russian-backed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in de facto control of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia. These interventions have been interpreted as a Kremlin strategy to destabilize other post-Soviet states and extend Russia's sphere of influence. [15] [16]

Israel, Palestine, and the Golan Heights

Area C (blue) is part of the West Bank under full Israeli control, in 2011. Occupied Palestinian Territories.jpg
Area C (blue) is part of the West Bank under full Israeli control, in 2011.

The Arab–Israeli conflict is a perennial conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbours, including the Palestinian National Authority. Israel refuses to recognize Palestinian statehood, while some Arab countries and groups refuse to recognize Israel. Israel has de facto control of East Jerusalem and claims it as its integral territory, although it is not internationally recognized as such. Similarly most of the Golan Heights are currently under de facto Israeli control and civil administration, whereas most of the international community rejects that claim. The United States formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019 through a proclamation by President Donald Trump. However, in recent years, a few Arab states and Israel had formed an alliance to contain the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxies as part of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict.

Former frozen conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a frozen conflict with periods of full-scale escalations. [17] The dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh following the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh can be seen as an end to this frozen conflict.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ossetia</span> Ethnolinguistic region

Ossetia is an ethnolinguistic region located on both sides of the Greater Caucasus Mountains, largely inhabited by the Ossetians. The Ossetian language is part of the Eastern Iranian branch of the family of Indo-European languages. Most countries recognize the Ossetian-speaking area south of the main Caucasus ridge as lying within the borders of Georgia, but it has come under the control of the de facto government of the Russian-backed Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania. The northern portion of the region consists of the, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania within the Russian Federation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">South Ossetia</span> Partially recognized state in the South Caucasus

South Ossetia, officially the Republic of South Ossetia or the State of Alania, is a partially recognised landlocked country in the South Caucasus. It has an officially stated population of just over 56,500 people (2022), who live in an area of 3,900 square kilometres (1,500 sq mi), with 33,000 living in the capital city, Tskhinvali.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Abkhazia conflict</span> 1989–present conflict between Georgia and the partially recognized Abkhazia

The Abkhazia conflict is a territorial dispute over Abkhazia, a region on the eastern coast of the Black Sea in the South Caucasus, at the intersection of Eastern Europe and Western Asia. The conflict involves Georgia, the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognised only by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria; Georgia and all other United Nations members consider Abkhazia a sovereign territory of Georgia. However, as of 2023, Georgia lacks de facto control over the territory.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Georgian–Ossetian conflict</span> 1989–present conflict between Georgia and the partially recognized South Ossetia

The Georgian–Ossetian conflict is an ethno-political conflict over Georgia's former autonomous region of South Ossetia, which evolved in 1989 and developed into a war. Despite a declared ceasefire and numerous peace efforts, the conflict remained unresolved. In August 2008, military tensions and clashes between Georgia and South Ossetian separatists erupted into the Russo-Georgian War. Since then, South Ossetia has been under a de-facto Russian control.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Foreign relations of Abkhazia</span>

The Republic of Abkhazia is a partially recognized state in the South Caucasus which declared independence from Georgia during the War in Abkhazia (1992–1993). At the time, the Soviet Union had recently collapsed (1991).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kosovo independence precedent</span> Precedent set by the international recognition of the independence of Kosovo

On 17 February 2008, the majority of members of the Assembly of Kosovo, including Hashim Thaçi, and Fatmir Sejdiu, not acting in the capacity of PISG, declared Kosovo an independent and sovereign state. Kosovo was soon recognized as a sovereign state by the United States, Turkey, Albania, Austria, Germany, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, the Republic of China (Taiwan), and others. This triggered an international debate over whether Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence had set a precedent in international law that could apply to other separatist movements, or whether it is a special case. The recognition of Kosovo's independence by 101 out of 193 UN states, according to many sources, has given fresh impetus to other separatist movements.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Prelude to the Russo-Georgian War</span> Events before the 2008 war in Georgia

Though tensions had existed between Georgia and Russia for years and more intensively since the Rose Revolution, the diplomatic crisis increased significantly in the spring of 2008, namely after Western powers recognized the independence of Kosovo in February and following Georgian attempts to gain a NATO Membership Action Plan at the 2008 Bucharest Summit; and while the eventual war saw a full-scale invasion of Georgia by Russia, the clashes that led up to it were concentrated in the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist Georgian regions that received considerable Russian support over the years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Background of the Russo-Georgian War</span> Overview of the background of the war

This article describes the background of the Russo-Georgian War.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Abkhazia</span> Partially recognised state in the South Caucasus

Abkhazia, officially the Republic of Abkhazia, is a partially recognised state in the South Caucasus, on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, at the intersection of Eastern Europe and West Asia. It covers 8,665 square kilometres (3,346 sq mi) and has a population of around 245,000. Its capital and largest city is Sukhumi.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia</span>

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are separatist regions of Georgia in the Caucasus. Most countries recognise them as part of Georgia, while Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria regard them as independent. Russia's initial recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia occurred in the aftermath of the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. The government of Georgia considers the republics to be Russian-occupied territories.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian-occupied territories in Georgia</span> Georgian territories occupied by separatist and Russian forces

Russian-occupied territories in Georgia are areas of Georgia that have been occupied by Russia since the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. They consist of the regions of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia and the former South Ossetian Autonomous Region of Soviet Georgia, whose status is a matter of international dispute.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian-occupied territories</span> Lands outside of Russia currently occupied by Russian military forces

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has been involved in territorial disputes with a number of other post-Soviet states. These disputes are primarily an aspect of the post-Soviet conflicts, and have led to some countries losing parts of their sovereign territory to what a large portion of the international community designates as a Russian military occupation. As such, these lands are commonly described as Russian-occupied territories, regardless of what their status is in Russian law. The term is applied to Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.

References

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  2. "North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?". Isn.ethz.ch. Retrieved 2014-03-22.
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  4. Jung, Karsten (2023). "A New Concert for Europe: Security and Order After the War". The Washington Quarterly. 46: 25–43. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2023.2192137.
  5. Zivkovic, Nikola (26 December 2012). "Western Sahara: A Frozen Conflict". Journal of Regional Security. 7.
  6. Irfan Haider (28 September 2015). "PM Nawaz urges Ban Ki-moon for plebiscite in Kashmir". Dawn. Retrieved 23 March 2017.
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  9. "The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert". Forbes. 22 September 2020.
  10. Hudson, Christopher (2014). The China Handbook. Routledge. p. 59. ISBN   978-1-134-26966-2.
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  12. "KOSOVO: RUSSIA'S FIFTH FROZEN CONFLICT? - Jamestown". Jamestown. Retrieved 2018-03-20.
  13. Foster, Peter (2016-08-21). "Hopes rise for deal to end 40-year frozen conflict in Cyprus". The Telegraph. ISSN   0307-1235 . Retrieved 2018-03-20.
  14. Byrne, Sean J. (Winter 2006). "The Roles of External Ethnoguarantors and Primary Mediators in Cyprus and Northern Ireland". Conflict Resolution Quarterly. 24 (2): 149–172. doi:10.1002/crq.164. Cyprus is more of a frozen conflict, and a long-standing one, than Northern Ireland, where the peace process has in a real sense gone much further down the road to settlement.
  15. Orttung, Robert; Walker, Christopher (February 13, 2015). "Putin's Frozen Conflicts" . Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 2021-05-20. Retrieved 2021-05-20.
  16. Jukic, Luka (20 February 2019). "How Russia Keeps Post-Soviet States in Its Orbit". Palladium Magazine. Archived from the original on 15 Feb 2020. Retrieved 2021-05-29.
  17. Ludvik, J., & Bahensky, V. (2024). The Russia-Ukraine frozen conflict: Evidence from an expert survey. Comparative Strategy, 43(2), 104–117.