Tripwire force

Last updated

A tripwire force (sometimes called a glass plate) is a strategic approach in deterrence theory. The tripwire force is a military force smaller than that of a potential adversary, which is designed to signal the defending side's commitment to an armed response to future aggression without triggering a security spiral.

Contents

Concept

A tripwire force is a military force significantly smaller than the forces of a potential adversary. [1] [2] The tripwire force helps deter aggression through the demonstration of the defending side's commitment to militarily counter an armed attack, even if the tripwire force cannot mount a sustained resistance itself. [1] [2] In the event an attack occurs, it helps defend against the aggressor by slowing the advance of the aggressor's forces to allow the defender time to marshal additional resources. [1] [2] The tripwire force can, in some instances, also be useful in deterring salami attacks. [3] [4]

Because the tripwire force is too small, by itself, to present an offensive threat, it can be deployed without triggering the security dilemma. [5]

The term "glass plate" has been used as a synonym for tripwire force; an attack against the force metaphorically shatters the "glass" between peace and war. [3]

The credibility of a tripwire force is tied to the "force having relevant combat capabilities and being of sufficient size that an adversary could neither sidestep nor capture the force" as well as to the potential of the defender to actually mobilize reserves robust enough to launch a counter-attack in a timely manner. [5] [6]

The U.S. Army deployed a tripwire force to Berlin during the Cold War to deter the Soviet Union, whose tanks are pictured here during the Berlin Crisis of 1961. Soviet tanks in Berlin 1961.jpg
The U.S. Army deployed a tripwire force to Berlin during the Cold War to deter the Soviet Union, whose tanks are pictured here during the Berlin Crisis of 1961.

Examples

Examples in practice

United States Army Berlin, a U.S. Army formation posted to West Berlin during the Cold War, has been referred to as a tripwire force. [7] Because a limited Soviet incursion into West Berlin, which resulted in no American casualties, might cause the sitting United States President to hesitate in mounting a counter-offensive, the Soviet Union – it was felt by western military planners – would have a strategic incentive to take such an action. [7] By stationing American forces in West Berlin, U.S. casualties would be guaranteed during any future Soviet attack. [7] In this way the United States would deny itself the political ability to abandon the conflict which would, in turn, guarantee a U.S. response up to – and including – the battlefield deployment of nuclear weapons. [7] [8] Realizing this, the Soviet Union would not take offensive action against West Berlin even though it might be militarily capable of doing so. [7]

United States Forces Korea (pictured here in 2017) have been described as a tripwire force. SuHo Lightening Combined Training Exercise.jpg
United States Forces Korea (pictured here in 2017) have been described as a tripwire force.

NATOs stance in the larger European theatre were also seen largely as a tripwire, whose primary purpose was to trigger the release of nuclear attacks on the Warsaw Pact. [9] The British 1957 Defence White Paper was based on a detailed look at the British Army of the Rhine's part as a tripwire and concluded it was larger than it needed to be to serve this function. If the force's primary purpose was to simply delay an advance until it became overwhelming and thus indicated a "real war", presumably being destroyed in the process, then a smaller force would work just as well. Accordingly, the BAOR was reduced from 77,000 to 64,000 over the next year. [10]

The deployment, in the mid 1970s, of a Soviet brigade to Cuba was at the time perceived by some to represent the introduction of a tripwire force onto the island – a method of deterring aggression against Cuba from "potential attackers who would not want to engage" the full Soviet Army. [11]

British military forces in the Falkland Islands (Isles Malvinas) prior to the Falklands War were intended to serve as a tripwire force, though were ultimately an ineffective one as they were so small and lightly armed that they didn't represent a credible signal to Argentina of UK military commitment to the islands. [12] [13] The Argentine invasion force had been given orders to overcome resistance without inflicting British casualties, and during the initial invasion successfully managed to bypass or capture all British units without resorting to deadly force. [14] [15] [13] [16]

United States Forces Korea have also been referred to as a tripwire force due to the perception that they are too diminutive to singularly repel an attack by the Korean People's Army. [17] Rather, they serve to convey "the certainty of American involvement should the North Koreans be tempted to invade". [18]

Since 2014, several members of NATO deployed forces to the Baltic states as a stated tripwire against possible Russian actions. [19] [20]

Examples in theory

Paul K. Davis and John Arquilla have argued that the United States should have placed a tripwire force in Kuwait prior to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait as a method of signaling to Iraq the commitment of the U.S. to an armed response. [21] In this way, they state, the Gulf War might have been avoided. [21]

In 2014 Saudi Arabia reportedly requested the deployment of Pakistani military units to Yemen to act as a tripwire force in the event of an attack against the kingdom by Iran via Yemen. [22]

In 2015 Michael E. O'Hanlon theorized that a United States tripwire force could continue to be deployed in a hypothetically reunified Korea to meet American security guarantees to the region while avoiding provocation of China. [23] According to O'Hanlon, a small enough U.S. military deployment in Korea, posted at a sufficient distance from the Chinese border, would not present an offensive threat to the PRC but would ensure the likelihood of American casualties in the event of a land invasion of the Korean Peninsula, thereby guaranteeing future American military commitment to any realized conflict. [23]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Falklands War</span> Undeclared war between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982

The Falklands War was a ten-week undeclared war between Argentina and the United Kingdom in 1982 over two British dependent territories in the South Atlantic: the Falkland Islands and its territorial dependency, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands. The conflict began on 2 April, when Argentina invaded and occupied the Falkland Islands, followed by the invasion of South Georgia the next day. On 5 April, the British government dispatched a naval task force to engage the Argentine Navy and Air Force before making an amphibious assault on the islands. The conflict lasted 74 days and ended with an Argentine surrender on 14 June, returning the islands to British control. In total, 649 Argentine military personnel, 255 British military personnel, and three Falkland Islanders were killed during the hostilities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">NATO</span> Intergovernmental military alliance

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 member states – 29 European and two North American. Established in the aftermath of World War II, the organization implemented the North Atlantic Treaty, signed in Washington, D.C., on 4 April 1949. NATO is a collective security system: its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by third parties. During the Cold War, NATO operated as a check on the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The alliance remained in place after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, and has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. The organization's motto is animus in consulendo liber.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Atlantic Treaty</span> 1949 treaty forming the basis of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

The North Atlantic Treaty is the treaty that forms the legal basis of, and is implemented by, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The treaty was signed in Washington, D.C., on 4 April 1949.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nuclear warfare</span> Military conflict that deploys nuclear weaponry

Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a military conflict or prepared political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can produce destruction in a much shorter time and can have a long-lasting radiological result. A major nuclear exchange would likely have long-term effects, primarily from the fallout released, and could also lead to secondary effects, such as "nuclear winter", nuclear famine, and societal collapse. A global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to various scenarios including the extinction of the human species.

Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would cause the complete annihilation of both the attacker and the defender. It is based on the theory of rational deterrence, which holds that the threat of using strong weapons against the enemy prevents the enemy's use of those same weapons. The strategy is a form of Nash equilibrium in which, once armed, neither side has any incentive to initiate a conflict or to disarm.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">No first use</span> Refrainment from using weapons of mass destruction unless attacked with them first

In nuclear ethics and deterrence theory, no first use (NFU) refers to a type of pledge or policy wherein a nuclear power formally refrains from the use of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in warfare, except for as a second strike in retaliation to an attack by an enemy power using WMD. Such a pledge would allow for a unique state of affairs in which a given nuclear power can be engaged in a conflict of conventional weaponry while it formally forswears any of the strategic advantages of nuclear weapons, provided the enemy power does not possess or utilize any such weapons of their own. The concept is primarily invoked in reference to nuclear mutually assured destruction but has also been applied to chemical and biological warfare, as is the case of the official WMD policy of India.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">World War III</span> Hypothetical future global conflict

World War III or the Third World War, often abbreviated as WWIII or WW3, are names given to a hypothetical worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some apply it loosely to limited or more minor conflicts such as the Cold War or the war on terror. In contrast, others assume that such a conflict would surpass prior world wars in both scope and destructive impact.

The Armed Forces of the Argentine Republic, in Spanish: Fuerzas Armadas de la República Argentina, are controlled by the Commander-in-Chief and a civilian Minister of Defense. In addition to the Army, Navy and Air Force, there are two security forces, controlled by the Ministry of Security, which can be mobilized in occasion of an armed conflict: the National Gendarmerie, a gendarmerie used to guard borders and places of strategic importance; and the Naval Prefecture, a coast guard used to protect internal major rivers and maritime territory.

Military doctrine is the expression of how military forces contribute to campaigns, major operations, battles, and engagements. A military doctrine outlines what military means should be used, how forces should be structured, where forces should be deployed, and the modes of cooperation between types of forces. "Joint doctrine" refers to the doctrines shared and aligned by multinational forces or joint service operations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International Security Assistance Force</span> NATO-led security mission in Afghanistan from 2001–2014

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was a multinational military mission in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014. It was established by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1386 pursuant to the Bonn Agreement, which outlined the establishment of a permanent Afghan government following the U.S. invasion in October 2001. ISAF's primary goal was to train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and assist Afghanistan in rebuilding key government institutions; it gradually took part in the broader war in Afghanistan against the Taliban insurgency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Battle of Goose Green</span> Battle of the Falklands War in May 1982

The Battle of Goose Green was fought from 28 to 29 May 1982 by British and Argentine forces during the Falklands War. Located on East Falkland's central isthmus, the settlement of Goose Green was the site of an airfield. Argentine forces were located in a well-defended position within striking distance of San Carlos Water where the British task force had positioned themselves after their amphibious landing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Harold Brown (Secretary of Defense)</span> American nuclear physicist and U.S. Secretary of Defense

Harold Brown was an American nuclear physicist who served as United States Secretary of Defense from 1977 to 1981, under President Jimmy Carter. Previously, in the John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson administrations, he held the posts of Director of Defense Research and Engineering (1961–1965) and United States Secretary of the Air Force (1965–1969).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Standing Royal Navy deployments</span>

Standing Royal Navy deployments is a list of operations and commitments undertaken by the United Kingdom's Royal Navy on a worldwide basis. The following list details these commitments and deployments sorted by region and in alphabetical order. Routine deployments made by the Navy's nuclear-powered submarines and their location of operations is classified.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Deterrence theory</span> Military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons

Deterrence theory refers to the scholarship and practice of how threats or limited force by one party can convince another party to refrain from initiating some other course of action. The topic gained increased prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons and is related to but distinct from the concept of mutual assured destruction, according to which a full-scale nuclear attack on a power with second-strike capability would devastate both parties. The central problem of deterrence revolves around how to credibly threaten military action or nuclear punishment on the adversary despite its costs to the deterrer.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa</span> Major command of the United States Air Force responsible for the European and African regions

The United States Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa (USAFE-AFAFRICA) is a United States Air Force (USAF) major command (MAJCOM) and a component command of both United States European Command (USEUCOM) and United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM). As part of its mission, USAFE-AFAFRICA commands U.S. Air Force units pledged to NATO, maintaining combat-ready wings based from the United Kingdom to Turkey. USAFE-AFAFRICA plans, conducts, controls, coordinates and supports air and space operations in Europe, parts of Asia and all of Africa with the exception of Egypt to achieve U.S. national and NATO objectives based on taskings by the two combatant commanders.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Flexible response</span> Military strategy of the Kennedy administration

Flexible response was a defense strategy implemented by John F. Kennedy in 1961 to address the Kennedy administration's skepticism of Dwight Eisenhower's New Look and its policy of massive retaliation. Flexible response calls for mutual deterrence at strategic, tactical, and conventional levels, giving the United States the capability to respond to aggression across the spectrum of war, not limited only to nuclear arms.

There were many events leading to the 1982 Falklands War between the United Kingdom and Argentina over possession of the Falkland Islands and South Georgia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Participants in Operation Enduring Freedom</span> Countries that partook in the 2001 United States-led invasion of Afghanistan

Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, several nations took on Al-Qaeda and the Taliban during Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan. OEF was the initial combat operations starting on 7 October 2001, in the wake of the 11 September attacks on the United States, and during 2002 and 2003.

The "nuclear umbrella" is a guarantee by a nuclear weapons state to defend a non-nuclear allied state. The context is usually the security alliances of the United States with Japan, South Korea, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Those alliances were formed because of the Cold War and the Soviet Union. For some countries, it was an alternative to acquiring nuclear weapons themselves; other alternatives include regional nuclear-weapon-free zones or nuclear sharing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Suwałki Gap</span> Lithuania–Poland border area

References

  1. 1 2 3 Chamberlain, Dianne (July 21, 2016). "NATO's Baltic Tripwire Forces Won't Stop Russia". The National Interest . Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  2. 1 2 3 "Trip-wire deterrence". The Economist . July 2, 2016. Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 18, 2018.
  3. 1 2 Slantchev, Branislav. "Deterrence and Compellence" (PDF). ucsd.edu. University of California at San Diego. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 9, 2018. Retrieved January 18, 2018.
  4. ↑ George, Alexander (1974). Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice . Columbia University. p.  393. ISBN   0-231-03837-2.
  5. 1 2 Milevski, Lukas. "The Strategic Implications for the Baltic States of the NATO Warsaw Summit". fpri.org. Foreign Policy Research Institute. Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  6. ↑ Samp, Lisa (2017). Recalibrating U.S. Strategy toward Russia: A New Time for Choosing. Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN   9781442280069. Archived from the original on 2018-02-09.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 "The real reasons for positioning US forces here". Sydney Morning Herald . November 24, 2011. Archived from the original on January 20, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  8. ↑ Smith, Derek (2004). Deterrence and Counterproliferation in an Age of Weapons of Mass Destruction. University of Oxford. p. 25.
  9. ↑ White, Kenton (October 2016). British Defence Planning and Britain’s NATO commitment, 1979–1985 (PDF) (Technical report). University of Reading.
  10. ↑ Statement On Defence, 1957: Outline of Future Policy (PDF) (Technical report). 1 April 1957.
  11. ↑ "Cuba". News-Press. September 1, 1979. Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  12. ↑ "Falklands can be defended with pre-1914 rifles, said MoD". The Daily Telegraph . December 29, 2005. Archived from the original on January 20, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  13. 1 2 González, Martín (2013). The Genesis of the Falklands (Malvinas) Conflict. Springer. p. 167. ISBN   978-1137354235.
  14. ↑ Gustafson, Lowell (1988). The Sovereignty Dispute Over the Falkland (Malvinas) Islands. Oxford University Press. p. 131. ISBN   0195364724. Archived from the original on 2014-06-27.
  15. ↑ "Falkland Islands War". britannica.com. Encyclopædia Britannica . Archived from the original on August 4, 2016. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  16. ↑ "Argentina invades Falklands". history.com. History Channel. Archived from the original on July 28, 2017. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  17. ↑ "Trip Wire: NATO's Russia Dilemma". carnegie.org. Carnegie Corporation. Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 1, 2018.
  18. ↑ "An Overly Costly 'Trip Wire' in Korea". The New York Times . July 21, 1989. Archived from the original on January 19, 2018. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  19. ↑ "The Royal Welsh arrive in Estonia". 30 October 2017.
  20. ↑ "Operation Reassurance". May 2014.
  21. 1 2 "US Regional Deterrence Strategies" (PDF). dtic.mil. RAND Corporation. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 20, 2017. Retrieved January 19, 2018.
  22. ↑ Ahmed, Khaled (2016). Sleepwalking to Surrender: Dealing with Terrorism in Pakistan. Penguin. ISBN   978-9386057624.
  23. 1 2 O'Hanlon, Michael (2015). The Future of Land Warfare. Brookings Institution. ISBN   978-0815726906. Archived from the original on 2018-02-09.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.