Blue wall (U.S. politics)

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The "blue wall". These states all voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, except for the light blue states, which voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024. Blue Wall states 1992-2012 map.svg
The "blue wall". These states all voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, except for the light blue states, which voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024.

The "blue wall" is a term used by political pundits to refer to the 18 U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party won in each presidential election from 1992 to 2012. George W. Bush, the only Republican president elected during this time, was able to narrowly win the electoral college in 2000 (271) and 2004 (286) only by winning enough states outside of the blue wall to defeat his Democratic opponents, Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively. The term "red wall", or "red sea", is less commonly used to refer to states that Republicans have consistently won in previous election cycles; however, most of these states represent significantly fewer electoral college votes than the blue wall. These terms refer to the colors that have become associated with the Democratic and Republican parties in the 21st century.

Contents

During the 2016 presidential election, many political pundits speculated that the "blue wall" made Hillary Clinton a heavy favorite to win the electoral college. [1] [2] Instead, Republican nominee Donald Trump was able to achieve narrow victories in the three blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as an electoral vote from Maine, a fourth blue wall state. He was consequently elected president with 306 electoral college votes (excluding two faithless electors).

In the 2020 presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeated President Trump by reclaiming Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania for his party. [3] Trump's lone breakthrough in the "blue wall" in 2020 was the one electoral vote from Maine, which he again won. Biden won 306 electoral votes. [4]

During the 2024 presidential election, Trump again achieved victories in the three blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as an electoral vote from Maine, a fourth blue wall state. [5]

Origin

Ronald Brownstein claims to have coined the term "blue wall" in 2009. [6] After the 2012 presidential election, Paul Steinhauser called "blue wall ... the cluster of eastern, Midwest and western states that have traditionally gone Democratic." [7] The earliest description of the forces creating the blue wall comes from a Houston Chronicle blogger, Chris Ladd. A Republican, Ladd wrote in November 2014 that the seemingly impressive Republican win in the 2014 midterm elections had overshadowed another trend apparent in the results – a demographic and geographic collapse. [8]

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic. Behold the Blue Wall.

The blue wall referred to a perceived Democratic demographic lock on the Electoral College resulting from the Republican Party's narrowing focus on the interests of white, rural, and Southern voters. According to Ladd, the presence of the blue wall means "a minimally effective Democratic candidate" is all but assured of winning 257 electoral votes, just 13 short of the threshold needed to win the Electoral College and the presidency. [8] Ladd's analysis became popular when MSNBC commentator Lawrence O'Donnell featured it on a post-election episode of his show The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell . [9] A similar "red wall/sea", behind which lie states solidly Republican, has also been posited to exist.[ by whom? ] But, having fewer electoral college votes, it would be theoretically easier for a Democratic presidential candidate to win without breaching it, as had been done in 2012.

States behind the blue wall

Behind this "blue wall" lay states, many carrying a relatively high number of electoral votes, which appeared to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level, and which a Republican presidential candidate appeared likely to have to write off, seeking a total of 270 electoral votes from other regions. States behind this wall lay generally in the Northeastern United States, the West Coast of the United States, and some of the Great Lakes states. In each of the six presidential election cycles prior to 2016, the Democratic Party had won 18 of these states (as well as the District of Columbia), totaling 238 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. The "big three" Democratic stronghold states include California, New York, and Illinois.

States falling behind this blue wall generally included those the Democrats had carried since the 1992 presidential election until the 2016 presidential election [7] [10] that included (in order of decreasing population and followed by current number of electoral votes): California (54), New York (28), Illinois (19), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), New Jersey (14), Washington (12), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Oregon (8), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), and Vermont (3), as well as Washington, D.C. (3); this is a total of 238 votes. Had Al Gore won New Hampshire (4) in 2000 or if John Kerry had won New Mexico (5) or Iowa (7) in 2004, those states could also have become part of the blue wall states since 1992; New Mexico and New Hampshire would further support the Democratic nominee in 2016, 2020, and 2024, while Iowa would not.

Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984 carried all states except for Minnesota, which last voted Republican with Richard Nixon in 1972; and the District of Columbia, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since it was admitted to the electoral college for the 1964 election. As such, the blue wall began to materialize with the 1988 United States presidential election; states that voted solely for Democratic Presidents since 1988 were New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin [a] , Oregon, Hawaii, and Rhode Island. The remainder of the blue wall was built in the 1992 United States presidential election: California, Illinois, Pennsylvania [b] , Michigan [c] , New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Vermont.

2016: First breach of the blue wall

States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted Republican in 2016 are marked in red. Minnesota (a historic blue wall state), was won by Democrats by only 1.5% and Maine by 3% in 2016. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the GOP one electoral vote. Blue Wall fall.svg
States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted Republican in 2016 are marked in red. Minnesota (a historic blue wall state), was won by Democrats by only 1.5% and Maine by 3% in 2016. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the GOP one electoral vote.

The Democrats' "lock" on these states had been called into question between 2012 and 2016, as several had been competitive in recent elections, and many had Republicans currently holding elected statewide office, generally either senator or governor. [11] Blue wall states with a Republican senator included Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine. Those with a Republican governor included Massachusetts, Maryland, and Michigan. In addition to these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, had only voted for the Republican once in the same six election cycles, giving their votes to George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004 by a margin of no more than 10,059 votes, whilst Oregon saw Bush lose by only 6,765 votes in 2000. If included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, just 13 short of what is needed to win. In 2016, the blue wall showed some cracks, and went down from 242 electoral votes to 195. Some in the mainstream media did, however, suspect the Democrats might lose Pennsylvania.

Nate Silver had criticized the idea of the blue wall, pointing to a similar "red wall/red sea" of states that voted Republican from 1968 to 1988. He argued that the blue wall simply represented a "pretty good run" in elections, and that relatively minor gains in the popular vote could flip some of its states to Republican. [12] This was seen in the 2016 election, where voters from manufacturing states traditionally behind the blue wall voted for Donald Trump, providing him the victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. [13] Others have also posited that the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had never definitively been "safe" for the Democratic Party, citing the close margins in those states in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections and opining that the outsized margins of victory secured by Barack Obama in the elections of 2008 and 2012 may have created a false impression of their safety for Democratic candidates.

2020: Resurgence of the blue wall

During the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Biden carried these states only by 0.5–3 point margins, a considerable underperformance compared to Obama's margins in these states in 2008 and 2012. Long-term trends seem less favorable to Democrats in these states as they all voted to the right of the national average and many working-class white voters there have been moving towards the Republicans. [14] [15]

Biden also broke into the red wall/sea by winning Arizona, Georgia, and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska. [16] [17] [18] However, Maine's 2nd congressional district voted for Donald Trump. Pundits saw former battleground states such as Colorado and Virginia becoming solidly Democratic-leaning after the 2020 election, partially as a result of demographic patterns. Biden won both of these states by more than 10% in 2020. [15]

2024: Second breach of the blue wall

During the 2024 United States presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump was able to regain the support of the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (as well as Maine's 2nd congressional district). [19] [20] Part of his victory in Michigan was attributed to the large population of Arab and Muslim voters who did not vote for the Democrats over their continued involvement in the deaths in Gaza and Lebanon. [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] Trump's margin of victory in those states was less than two percent (very close to the national margin) but the victories added 44 electoral votes to his total. [26]

Red sea

Red wall/sea states, along with the year they have been red since. All states colored on this map have been red since at least 2000. Red Wall states.svg
Red wall/sea states, along with the year they have been red since. All states colored on this map have been red since at least 2000.

The states which Republicans have won in the last eleven elections (from 1980 to 2020) are Texas (40), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9), Oklahoma (7), Mississippi (6), Utah (6), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4) (excluding Nebraska's 2nd congressional district), Idaho (4), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), Alaska (3), and Wyoming (3), giving a total of 103 votes. Additionally, Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (4), and Montana (4) have been won by Republicans in the last six elections (from 2000 to 2020), making more recent additions to the red wall/sea, bringing the total electoral votes up to 154. Other states with a 10-out-of-11 (from 1980 to 2020) Republican record include North Carolina (16) and Indiana (11), whose 27 electoral votes added to the 154 of the preceding twenty red sea states make for a total of 181 electoral votes, although North Carolina is usually a swing state that leans slightly towards Republicans, enough to prevent Democrats from winning it except for Obama when he narrowly won the state in 2008. Former red wall/sea states include Georgia [d] and Arizona, [e] which had been won by the Republicans in nine of the eleven elections from 1984 to 2024, but now considered swing states.

In presidential elections

Presidential votes in blue wall states since 1876:

YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin
1876 Hayes Tilden Tilden No election [f] No election [g] Hayes Hayes Tilden Hayes Hayes Hayes Tilden Tilden Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes No election [h] Hayes
1880 Hancock Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield
1884 Blaine Cleveland Cleveland Blaine Blaine Cleveland Blaine Blaine Blaine Cleveland Cleveland Blaine Blaine Blaine Blaine Blaine
1888 Harrison Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison
1892 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland
1896 McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley Bryan McKinley
1900 McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley
1904 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Parker [i] Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
1908 Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Bryan [j] Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft
1912 Roosevelt Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Roosevelt Roosevelt Wilson Wilson Wilson Roosevelt Wilson Taft Roosevelt Wilson
1916 Wilson Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Wilson Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Wilson Hughes
1920 Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding
1924 Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge La Follette
1928 Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Smith Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Smith Hoover Hoover Hoover
1932 Roosevelt Hoover Hoover Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Roosevelt
1936 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Landon Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Landon Roosevelt Roosevelt
1940 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt
1944 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Dewey Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Dewey Roosevelt Dewey
1948 Truman Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Truman Dewey Dewey Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Truman Truman
1952 Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
1956 Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
1960 Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Nixon Nixon
1964 Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
1968 Nixon Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Nixon
1972 Nixon Nixon Nixon McGovern Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon McGovern Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon
1976 Ford Ford Carter Carter Carter Ford Ford Carter Carter Ford Carter Ford Carter Ford Carter Carter Ford Ford Carter
1980 Reagan Reagan Reagan Carter Carter Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Reagan
1984 Reagan Reagan Reagan Mondale Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Mondale Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
1988 Bush Bush Bush Dukakis Dukakis Bush Bush Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Dukakis
1992 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
1996 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
2000 Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore
2004 Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry
2008 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
2012 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
2016 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton [k] Clinton Clinton Trump Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Trump Clinton Clinton Clinton Trump
2020 Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden [l] Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden
2024 Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris [m] Harris Harris Trump Harris Harris Harris Harris Trump Harris Harris Harris Trump
YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin
Key
Democratic Party nominee
Republican Party nominee
Third-party nominee [n]

Bold denotes candidates elected as president

See also

Explanatory notes

  1. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  2. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  3. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  4. ↑ Bill Clinton and Joe Biden won the state in 1992 and 2020, respectively.
  5. ↑ Bill Clinton and Joe Biden won the state in 1996 and 2020, respectively.
  6. ↑ The District of Columbia did not vote in presidential elections until 1964, after ratification of the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution.
  7. ↑ Hawaii was not a state until 1959 and did not vote in presidential elections until 1960.
  8. ↑ Washington was not a state until 1889 and did not vote in presidential elections until 1892.
  9. ↑ Parker won seven of Maryland’s eight electoral votes, with the other going to Roosevelt, whose highest elector actually received 51 more votes than Parker’s
  10. ↑ Taft’s highest elector actually received 605 more votes than Bryan’s, but of the top eight electors six were pledged to Bryan.
  11. ↑ Clinton won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes. Since the 1972 election, Maine has awarded two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, with one vote going to the winner in each congressional district.
  12. ↑ Biden won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes.
  13. ↑ Harris won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes. Since the 1972 election, Maine has awarded two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, with one vote going to the winner in each congressional district.
  14. ↑ These were all named nationally as the “Progressive Party”, though the 1924 version was not a continuation of the 1912 one.

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  21. ↑ "Trump wins Dearborn, makes gains in Hamtramck amid anger over Gaza". www.freep.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  22. ↑ "'We warned you,' Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris". www.aljazeera.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  23. ↑ "Michigan's Muslim Voters Sent Kamala Harris a 'Message'—Democrat". www.newsweek.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Trump wins Dearborn, Dearborn Heights amid fury over Gaza, Lebanon wars". www.detroitnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Arab American Voters in Dearborn, Michigan, Heard Trump's Case". www.detroitnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Latest Election 2024 News and Updates | Fox News Elections Center". www.foxnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
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