The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI) is an index which describes the potential for damage from an Atlantic hurricane in the United States. The CMEHI is used as the basis for trading hurricane futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). [1] It is very similar to the Hurricane Severity Index, which also factors both size and intensity of a hurricane. [2]
The CMEHI takes as input two variables: the maximum sustained wind speed of a hurricane in miles per hour and the radius to hurricane-force winds of a hurricane in miles (i.e. how far from the center of the hurricane winds of 74 mph or greater are experienced). If the maximum sustained wind speed is denoted by V and the radius to hurricane-force winds is denoted by R then the CMEHI is calculated as follows:
where the subscript 0 denotes reference values. For use on the CME, the reference values of 74 mph and 60 miles are used for the maximum sustained wind speed and radius of hurricane-force winds respectively.
The development of the CMEHI was based on work published by Lakshmi Kantha at the Department of Aerospace Studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. Kantha's paper [3] in Eos developed a number of indices based on various characteristics of hurricanes. The ReAdvisory team at the reinsurance broker RK Carvill [4] used the basics of the Kantha paper to develop an index which became the Carvill Hurricane Index (CHI). In 2009, the scale was renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI). [5]
The data for the CMEHI comes from the public advisories issued for named storms by the National Hurricane Center. Specifically, to determine the maximum sustained wind speed, the following verbiage is looked for:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR XX MPH
To determine the radius to hurricane-force winds, the following phrase is looked for:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO XX MILES
For example, Advisory 23A [6] for Hurricane Katrina at 1pm Central daylight time on Sunday, August 28, 2005, gave the maximum sustained wind speed of 175 mph and the radius of hurricane-force winds of 105 miles resulting in a CMEHI value of 27.9.
Public advisories from the National Hurricane Center are archived back to 1998. The table below lists the CMEHI values for all the landfalling hurricanes since 1998 based on the NHC Public Advisories, and uses alternate sources for hurricanes between 1989 and 1998.
CMEHI indices of historical storms (1989 – present) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Year | Landfall | NHC advisory number | Windspeed at/near landfall (operational) | Radius of hurricane–force winds at/near landfall | CMEHI index | Ref(s) |
1 Jerry | 1989 | Texas | N/A | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 2.3 | [7] |
4 Hugo | 1989 | U.S. Virgin Islands | N/A | 140 mph (220 km/h) | 85 mi (135 km) | 14.4 | [8] |
3 Hugo | 1989 | Puerto Rico | N/A | 125 mph (205 km/h) | 85 mi (135 km) | 10.9 | [8] |
4 Hugo | 1989 | South Carolina | N/A | 140 mph (220 km/h) | 140 mi (225 km) | 19.3 | [9] |
4 Andrew | 1992 | Florida | N/A | 145 mph (230 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 9.9 | [10] |
1 Erin | 1995 | Florida | N/A | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 35 mi (55 km) | 2.7 | [11] |
2 Marilyn | 1995 | U.S. Virgin Islands | N/A | 110 mph (175 km/h) | 30 mi (50 km) | 4.9 | [12] |
3 Opal | 1995 | Florida | N/A | 115 mph (185 km/h) | 60 mi (95 km) | 7.4 | [13] |
2 Bertha | 1996 | North Carolina | N/A | 105 mph (165 km/h) | 115 mi (185 km) | 8.6 | [14] |
3 Fran | 1996 | North Carolina | 44 | 115 mph (185 km/h) | 175 mi (280 km) | 14.3 | [15] |
1 Hortense | 1996 | Puerto Rico | N/A | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 60 mi (95 km) | 3.0 | [16] |
1 Danny | 1997 | Louisiana | N/A | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 20 mi (30 km) | 1.5 | [17] |
2 Bonnie | 1998 | North Carolina | 33 | 100 mph (155 km/h) | 115 mi (185 km) | 7.7 | [18] |
1 Earl | 1998 | Florida | 11A | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 115 mi (185 km) | 4.6 | [19] |
3 Georges | 1998 | Puerto Rico | 26B | 115 mph (185 km/h) | 85 mi (135 km) | 8.9 | [20] |
2 Georges | 1998 | Mississippi | 52 | 105 mph (165 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 5.1 | [21] |
3 Bret | 1999 | Texas | 17A | 125 mph (205 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 7.7 | [22] |
2 Floyd | 1999 | North Carolina | 34A | 110 mph (175 km/h) | 115 mi (185 km) | 9.6 | [23] |
1 Irene | 1999 | Florida | 10 | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 2.1 | [24] |
1 Lili | 2002 | Louisiana | 49 | 90 mph (150 km/h) | 70 mi (115 km) | 4.4 | [25] |
1 Claudette | 2003 | Texas | 28A | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 30 mi (50 km) | 2.1 | [26] |
2 Isabel | 2003 | North Carolina | 49A | 100 mph (155 km/h) | 115 mi (185 km) | 7.7 | [27] |
4 Charley | 2004 | Florida | 18 | 145 mph (230 km/h) | 30 mi (50 km) | 10.4 | [28] |
2 Frances | 2004 | Florida | 44A | 105 mph (165 km/h) | 75 mi (120 km) | 6.6 | [29] |
4 Ivan | 2004 | Alabama | 55B | 130 mph (215 km/h) | 105 mi (170 km) | 13.5 | [30] |
3 Jeanne | 2004 | Florida | 49B | 115 mph (185 km/h) | 70 mi (115 km) | 8.0 | [31] |
3 Dennis | 2005 | Florida | 25B | 120 mph (195 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 6.9 | [32] |
1 Katrina | 2005 | Florida | 9 | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 15 mi (25 km) | 1.4 | [33] |
4 Katrina | 2005 | Louisiana | 26A | 145 mph (230 km/h) | 120 mi (195 km) | 19.0 | [34] |
3 Rita | 2005 | Texas | 26B | 120 mph (195 km/h) | 85 mi (135 km) | 9.9 | [35] |
3 Wilma | 2005 | Florida | 36 | 125 mph (205 km/h) | 90 mi (145 km) | 11.2 | [36] |
1 Humberto | 2007 | Texas | 4 | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 15 mi (25 km) | 1.7 | [37] |
2 Dolly | 2008 | Texas | 13A | 100 mph (155 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 3.6 | [38] |
2 Gustav | 2008 | Louisiana | 31B | 110 mph (175 km/h) | 70 mi (115 km) | 7.2 | [39] |
2 Ike | 2008 | Texas | 48B | 110 mph (175 km/h) | 120 mi (195 km) | 9.9 | [40] |
1 Irene | 2011 | Puerto Rico | 7 | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 15 mi (25 km) | 1.4 | [41] |
1 Irene | 2011 | North Carolina | 28A | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 90 mi (145 km) | 4.5 | [42] |
1 Isaac | 2012 | Louisiana | 33 | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 60 mi (95 km) | 3.0 | [43] |
2 Arthur | 2014 | North Carolina | 13 | 100 mph (155 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 4.3 | [44] |
1 Hermine | 2016 | Florida | 19A | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 2.6 | [45] |
1 Matthew | 2016 | South Carolina | 42 | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 1.6 | [46] |
4 Harvey | 2017 | Texas | 23 | 130 mph (215 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 8.5 | [47] |
4 Irma | 2017 | Florida | 45A | 130 mph (215 km/h) | 80 mi (130 km) | 11.6 | [48] |
4 Maria | 2017 | Puerto Rico | 17 | 155 mph (250 km/h) | 60 mi (95 km) | 15.8 | [49] |
1 Nate | 2017 | Louisiana | 14A | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 2.8 | [50] |
1 Florence | 2018 | North Carolina | 61 | 80 mph (130 km/h) | 70 mi (115 km) | 3.3 | [51] |
4 Michael | 2018 | Florida | 16A | 155 mph (250 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 14.1 | [52] |
1 Barry | 2019 | Louisiana | 13 | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 2.1 | [53] |
1 Dorian | 2019 | North Carolina | 52A | 90 mph (150 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 3.5 | [54] |
1 Hanna | 2020 | Texas | 12 | 90 mph (150 km/h) | 30 mi (50 km) | 2.9 | [55] |
1 Isaias | 2020 | North Carolina | 28 | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 2.3 | [56] |
4 Laura | 2020 | Louisiana | 29A | 150 mph (240 km/h) | 60 mi (95 km) | 14.5 | [57] |
2 Sally | 2020 | Alabama | 21 | 105 mph (165 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 4.9 | [58] |
2 Delta | 2020 | Louisiana | Update | 100 mph (155 km/h) | 40 mi (65 km) | 4.3 | [59] |
2 Zeta | 2020 | Louisiana | 17 | 110 mph (175 km/h) | 35 mi (55 km) | 5.2 | [60] |
4 Ida | 2021 | Louisiana | 14 | 150 mph (240 km/h) | 50 mi (80 km) | 13.5 | [61] |
1 Nicholas | 2021 | Texas | 8A | 75 mph (120 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 1.6 | [62] |
1 Fiona | 2022 | Puerto Rico | 17A | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 30 mi (50 km) | 2.5 | [63] |
4 Ian | 2022 | Florida | 24A | 155 mph (250 km/h) | 45 mi (70 km) | 14.1 | [64] |
1 Ian | 2022 | South Carolina | 33 | 85 mph (140 km/h) | 70 mi (115 km) | 3.8 | [65] |
4 Idalia | 2023 | Florida | 15 | 130 mph (215 km/h) | 25 mi (40 km) | 7.4 | [66] |
Prior to 1998, the data becomes sparse. However, using data from the HURSAT [67] database at NOAA it is possible to construct a set of CMEHI values for storms back to 1983.
Modeled data is available from a number of sources:
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)The 2001 Pacific hurricane season was a relatively near-average Pacific hurricane season which produced sixteen named storms, though most were rather weak and short-lived including one unnamed tropical storm which was operationally recognized as a tropical depression, the first such occurrence since 1996. Only eight hurricanes formed and two major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year.
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic Ocean. It was the second most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history, and the most extreme in the satellite era. Officially, the season began on June 1, 2005 and ended on November 30, 2005. These dates, adopted by convention, historically delimit the period in each year when most tropical systems form. The season's first storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, developed on June 8. The final storm, Tropical Storm Zeta, formed in late December and persisted until January 6, 2006. Zeta is only the second December Atlantic storm in recorded history to survive into January, joining Hurricane Alice in 1955.
The meteorological history of Hurricane Gustav spanned eleven days, from August 25 to September 4, 2008. The tropical disturbance which eventually spawned Hurricane Gustav gathered on August 16, southwest of the Cape Verde islands, but was slow to develop as it trekked west across the Atlantic. Upon reaching the warm waters of Caribbean Sea it began to organize and became a tropical depression on August 25. It quickly strengthened to a tropical storm, and then a hurricane, before making landfall on Haiti's southwest peninsula. Gustav was severely disrupted by Hispaniola's mountains and stalled, disorganized, in the Gulf of Gonâve between August 26 and 27.
Tropical Storm Odile was a late season tropical storm that formed during the 2008 Pacific hurricane season and affected parts of southern Mexico. A tropical depression formed on October 8, and became Tropical Storm Odile 18 hours later. The storm paralleled the south coast of Mexico, with the center located only several miles offshore. After peaking in intensity, increasing southeasterly vertical wind shear induced a trend of rapid weakening on the storm. Correspondingly, Odile was downgraded to a tropical depression early on 12 October, subsequently degenerating into a remnant low about 55 mi (85 km) south of Manzanillo, Colima. From thereon, the low proceeded slowly south-southwestward before dissipating on October 13. Since Odile stayed at sea, its effects along coastlines were limited. The most notable damages were caused by flooding along the southern coast of Mexico, mostly in Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán. The exact amount of damage, however, remains unknown, and no fatalities were reported as a result of the storm.
The 2000 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic Ocean. There was above-normal activity during the season, with nearly all its activity occurring during a three-month period, August–October. The season officially began on June 1, 2000 and ended on November 30, 2000. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical systems form. Although two tropical depressions formed in June, the first named storm, Alberto, did not arise until August 4. The season's final storm, an unnamed subtropical storm, became extratropical on October 29.
The 1999 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic Ocean. This Atlantic hurricane season saw a near-average number of named tropical storms, though five of them became dangerous hurricanes of Category 4 intensity on the 5-level Saffir–Simpson scale, the most in a single season since 1886. The season officially began on June 1, 1999 and ended on November 30, 1999. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical systems form. This season's first storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, formed on June 11, while the last, Hurricane Lenny, dissipated on November 23.
The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was an above average Pacific hurricane season in terms of named storms, though less active than the previous three, featuring eighteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Despite the considerable amount of activity, most of the storms were weak and short-lived. The season officially started on May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the respective regions. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as illustrated in 2017 by the formation of the season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Adrian, on May 9. At the time, this was the earliest formation of a tropical storm on record in the eastern Pacific basin proper. The season saw near-average activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), in stark contrast to the extremely active seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2016; and for the first time since 2012, no tropical cyclones formed in the Central Pacific basin. However, for the third year in a row, the season featured above-average activity in July, with the ACE value being the fifth highest for the month. Damage across the basin reached $375.28 million (2017 USD), while 45 people were killed by the various storms.
Hurricane Epsilon was the twenty-seventh named tropical or subtropical storm and the final of 15 hurricanes in the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Originating from a cold front beneath an upper-level low, Epsilon formed on November 29 about 915 mi (1470 km) east of Bermuda, becoming the second tropical storm to do so in that area of the Atlantic within the span of a week. Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast the storm to transition into an extratropical cyclone within five days, due to conditions unfavorable for significant intensification. Epsilon continually defied forecasts, at first due to an unexpected loop to the southwest, and later due to retaining its strength despite cold waters and strong wind shear.
Hurricane Adrian was an intense, albeit short-lived early-season Category 4 hurricane that brought heavy rainfall and high waves to Mexico in June 2011 during the 2011 Pacific hurricane season. Adrian originated from an area of disturbed weather which had developed during the course of early June, off the Pacific coast of Mexico. On June 7, it acquired a sufficiently organized structure with deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated it as Tropical Depression One-E, the first one of 2011. It further strengthened to be upgraded into a tropical storm later that day. Adrian moved rather slowly; briefly recurving northward after being caught in the steering winds. After steady intensification, it was upgraded into a hurricane on June 9. The storm subsequently entered a phase of rapid intensification, developing a distinct eye with good outflow in all quadrants. Followed by this period of rapid intensification, it obtained sustained winds fast enough to be considered a major hurricane and reached its peak intensity as a category 4 hurricane that evening.
Hurricane Carlotta was the easternmost tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific to make landfall at hurricane intensity since 1966. The third tropical cyclone and third named storm of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season, Carlotta developed slowly into a tropical depression from a tropical wave southwest of Central America on June 14. It moved generally west-northwestward and by the following day, strengthened into tropical storm strength. Thereafter, gradual intensification occurred and the storm reached hurricane strength on June 15. Rapid intensification ensued further, as Carlotta peaked as a 110 mph (180 km/h) Category 2 hurricane on the same day. At 0100 UTC the following day, Carlotta made landfall near Puerto Escondido, the easternmost landfalling Pacific hurricane in recorded history at the time. The next day the storm began to weaken as it moved onshore Southwestern Mexico. Carlotta continued to weaken rapidly, eventually dissipating on June 16.
Hurricane Ernesto was a Category 2 hurricane and a damaging tropical cyclone that affected several Caribbean Islands and areas of Central America during August 2012. The fifth named storm and second hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Ernesto originated from a tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa in late July. Moving westward, the system developed into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic, and further into a tropical storm prior to entering the Caribbean Sea. The system encountered high wind shear south of Jamaica but subsequently reached its peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane as it made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula. Ernesto briefly emerged in the Bay of Campeche as a strong tropical storm before dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The remnant circulation emerged in the eastern Pacific basin, contributing to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector.
The meteorological history of Hurricane Dennis spanned twenty-two days, beginning with its inception as a tropical wave over Africa on June 26, 2005, and terminating with its dissipation on July 18 over the Great Lakes of North America. The incipient wave that became Dennis emerged over the Atlantic Ocean on June 29 and moved briskly to the west. Dry air initially inhibited development, though once this abated the wave was able to consolidate into a tropical depression on July 4. The depression soon crossed Grenada before entering the Caribbean whereupon increasingly favorable environmental factors, such as low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures, fueled intensification. Turning west-northwest, the system achieved tropical storm status on July 5 and hurricane status the following day.
Hurricane Matthew was the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007 and the southernmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. The system originated from a tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on September 22, and ultimately dissipated as an extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada on October 10. Late on September 29, it began a period of explosive intensification that brought it to Category 5 strength early on October 1. It weakened slightly and remained a Category 4 until its landfalls in Haiti and Cuba, afterwards it traversed through the Bahamas and paralleled the coast of Florida until making landfall in South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. Matthew later transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on October 10.
The meteorological history of Hurricane Florence spanned 22 days from its inception on August 28, 2018, to its dissipation on September 18. Originating from a tropical wave over West Africa, Florence quickly organized upon its emergence over the Atlantic Ocean. Favorable atmospheric conditions enabled it to develop into a tropical depression on August 31 just south of the Cape Verde islands. Intensifying to a tropical storm the following day, Florence embarked on a west-northwest to northwest trajectory over open ocean. Initially being inhibited by increased wind shear and dry air, the small cyclone took advantage of a small area of low shear and warm waters. After achieving hurricane strength early on September 4, Florence underwent an unexpected period of rapid deepening through September 5, culminating with it becoming a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Thereafter, conditions again became unfavorable and the hurricane quickly diminished to a tropical storm on September 7.
Hurricane Dorian was the strongest hurricane to affect The Bahamas on record, causing catastrophic damage on the islands of Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, in early September 2019. The cyclone's intensity, as well as its slow forward motion near The Bahamas, broke numerous records. The fifth tropical cyclone, fourth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, Dorian originated from a westward-traveling tropical wave, that departed from the western coast of Africa on August 19. The system organized into a tropical depression and later a tropical storm, both on August 24.
Tropical Storm Narda was a short-lived tropical storm that remained close to the Pacific coast of Mexico, causing flash flooding and mudslides in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula in late September 2019. The fourteenth named storm of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, Narda developed from a broad area of low pressure that formed off the Central American Pacific coast on September 26. The broad low gradually organized as it moved west-northwestward, and it became Tropical Storm Narda early on September 29 while located off the southern coast of Mexico. The cyclone strengthened slightly before it moved inland near Manzanillo. Narda weakened to a tropical depression after moving inland, but restrengthened into a tropical storm on September 30 as it emerged over the Pacific Ocean just south of the Gulf of California. Narda quickly strengthened, and reached its peak intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) that day before making a second landfall along the northwestern coast of Mexico. The tropical cyclone weakened rapidly as it moved along the coastline, and it weakened to a tropical depression before dissipating just off the coast of Sonora on October 1.