Guaidó declared himself acting president and swore himself in on 23 January.[4] Maduro's government has accused the United States of organizing a coup d'état to remove him and take control of the country's oil reserves.[9] Guaidó rejects the characterization of his actions as a coup, saying that his movement is backed by peaceful volunteers.[10]
Guaidó has been recognized as the acting President of Venezuela by about 60 countries.[11][12][13] Internationally, support has followed traditional geopolitical lines, with allies China, Cuba, Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey supporting Maduro; while the majority of Western and Latin American countries support Guaidó as acting President.[11][14][15] Support for Guaidó has declined since a failed military uprising attempt in April 2019.[16][17] As of December 2019, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government have been described as unsuccessful by various analysts and media networks, with Maduro continuing to control Venezuela's state institutions.[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]
Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro (and briefly under his predecessor, Hugo Chávez), as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminish the quality of life.[26][27] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[28] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly—consisting of Bolivarian officials—filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[28][29] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[28]
In January 2016, the National Assembly declared a "health humanitarian crisis" given the "serious shortage of medicines, medical supplies and deterioration of humanitarian infrastructure", asking Maduro's government to "guarantee immediate access to the list of essential medicines that are basic and indispensable and that must be accessible at all times".[30]
The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.[28] As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez.[31] Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely,[32] and over 40countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC).[33][34] The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power".[35] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default.[36] On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[37]
Maduro disavowed the National Assembly in 2017;[38][39] as of 2018, some considered the National Assembly the only "legitimate" institution left in the country,[lower-alpha 1] and human rights organizations said there were no independent institutional checks on presidential power.[lower-alpha 2]
2018 election and calls for transitional government
In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date.[53] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid.[54] Politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected,[55] and considered him an ineffective dictator.[56] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States, and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[57][58] Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[59][60]
In December 2018, Guaidó had traveled to Washington D.C. and met with OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, and then on 14 January 2019 to Colombia for a Lima Group meeting, in which Maduro's mandate was rejected. According to an article in El País, the January Lima Group meeting and the stance taken by Canadian Minister of Foreign AffairsChrystia Freeland were key. El País describes Donald Trump's election—coinciding with the election of conservative presidents in Colombia and Brazil, along with deteriorating conditions in Venezuela—as "a perfect storm", with decisions influenced by U.S. officials including Vice PresidentMike Pence, Secretary of StatePompeo, National Security AdvisorJohn Bolton, and legislators Mario Díaz-Balart and Marco Rubio. Venezuelans Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges and Gustavo Tarre were consulted, and the Trump administration decision to back Guaidó formed on 22 January, according to El País. Díaz-Balart said that the decision was the result of two years of planning.[61]
The Venezuelan opposition says its actions are based on the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution, specifically Articles 233, 333 and 350.[62]
The first paragraph of Article 233 states: "when the president-elect is absolutely absent before taking office, a new election shall take place (...) And while the president is elected and takes office, the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly".[63][lower-alpha 3][lower-alpha 4]
Article 333 calls for citizens to restore and enforce the Constitution if it is not followed.[63][lower-alpha 3] Article 350 calls for citizens to "disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights”.[65][66][lower-alpha 3]
Article 233 was invoked after death of Hugo Chávez, which took place soon after his inauguration, and extraordinary elections were called within thirty days.[67][68] Invoked by the National Assembly, Guaidó was declared acting president until elections could be held; Diego A. Zambrano, an assistant professor of law at Stanford Law School, says that "Venezuelan lawyers disagree on the best reading of this provision. Some argue Guaidó can serve longer if the electoral process is scheduled within a reasonable time".[69] The National Assembly announced that it will designate a committee to appoint a new National Electoral Council, in anticipation of free elections.[70]
Presidents of Cuba, Bolivia and El Salvador greet Maduro at Maduro's second inauguration on 10 January 2019
Signs of impending crisis showed when a Supreme Court Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January 2019 second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. The justice, Christian Zerpa[es], said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[57][58][71] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president of Venezuela, the OAS approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA);[72][73] other small Caribbean nations reliant on economic assistance from the Maduro government (such as Dominica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Trinidad and Tobago) attended his inauguration.[74]
Maduro's government stated that the positions against him were the "result of imperialism perpetrated by the United States and allies" that put Venezuela "at the centre of a world war".[75]
Juan Guaidó surrounded by members of the opposition during the public assembly on 11 January 2019
Juan Guaidó, the newly appointed President of the National Assembly of Venezuela, began motions to form a provisional government shortly after assuming his new role on 5 January 2019, stating that whether or not Maduro began his new term on the 10th, the country would not have a legitimately elected president in either case.[76] On behalf of the National Assembly, he stated that the country had fallen into a de facto dictatorship and had no leader,[77] declaring that the nation faced a state of emergency.[78] He called for "soldiers who wear their uniforms with honor to step forward and enforce the Constitution", and asked "citizens for confidence, strength, and to accompany us on this path".[78]
Guaidó announced a public assembly, referred to as an open cabildo, on 11 January[79]—a rally in the streets of Caracas, where the National Assembly announced that Guaidó was assuming the role of the acting president under the Constitution of Venezuela and announcing plans to remove President Maduro.[80] Leaders of other political parties, trade unions, women, and the students of Venezuela were given a voice at the rally; other parties did not speak of a divide, but of what they saw as a failed Bolivarian Revolution that needed to end.[80]
Maduro's response was to call the opposition a group of "little boys", describing Guaidó as "immature". The Minister for Prison Services, Iris Varela, threatened that she had picked out a prison cell for Guaidó and asked him to be quick in naming his cabinet so she could prepare prison cells for them as well.[81]
Guaidó declared acting president
Agreement approved by the National Assembly to declare the usurpation of the presidency by Nicolás Maduro on 15 January.
Following Guaidó's speech, the National Assembly released a press statement saying that Guaidó had assumed the role of acting president. A later statement clarified the position of Guaidó as "willing to assume command ...only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[5] The opposition did not consider this a coup d'état based on the acknowledged "illegitimacy" of Maduro by many governments, and the constitutional processes that the National Assembly said they were following,[82] specifically invoking Articles 233, 333, and 350 of the Constitution.[80] The president of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela in exile (based in Panama) wrote to Guaidó, requesting him to become acting president of Venezuela.[83]
On 15 January 2019, the National Assembly approved legislation to work with dozens of foreign countries to request that these nations freeze Maduro administration bank accounts.[84] Guaidó wrote a 15 January 2019 opinion piece in The Washington Post entitled "Maduro is a usurper. It's time to restore democracy in Venezuela"; he outlined Venezuela's erosion of democracy and his reasoning for the need to replace Maduro on an interim basis according to Venezuela's constitution.[85]
Guaidó announced nationwide protests to be held on 23 January—the same day as the removal of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958—using a slogan chant of ¡Sí se puede!.[82][86] The National Assembly worked with a coalition (Frente Amplio Venezuela Libre) to create a plan for the demonstrations, organizing a unified national force.[87] On 11 January, plans to offer incentives for the armed forces to disavow Maduro were revealed.[88]
OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro was the first to give official support to this action, tweeting "We welcome the assumption of Juan Guaidó as interim President of Venezuela in accordance with Article 233 of the Political Constitution. You have our support, that of the international community and of the people of Venezuela."[82] Later that day, Brazil and Colombia gave their support to Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela.[89]
Guaidó was detained on 13 January by the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN)[90] and released 45minutes later.[91] The SEBIN agents who intercepted his car and took him into custody were fired.[92][93] The Information Minister, Jorge Rodríguez, said the agents did not have instructions and the arrest was orchestrated by Guaidó as a "media stunt" to gain popularity; BBC News correspondents said that it appeared to be a genuine ambush to send a message to the opposition.[92] Almagro condemned the arrest, which he called a "kidnapping", while Pompeo referred to it as an "arbitrary detention".[94]
After his detention, Guaidó said that Rodríguez's admission that the SEBIN agents acted independently showed that the government had lost control of its security forces; he called Miraflores (the presidential house and office) "desperate",[92][94] and stated: "There is one legitimate president of the National Assembly and of all Venezuela."[95]
Guaidó swears oath as acting president
23 January march in Caracas
On 23 January, Guaidó swore to serve as Acting President.[4] On that morning, Guaidó tweeted, "The world's eyes are on our homeland today."[96][97] On that day, millions of Venezuelans[98] demonstrated across the country and world in support of Guaidó,[99][100] described as "a river of humanity",[101] with a few hundred supporting Maduro outside Miraflores.[102][103] At one end of the blocked street was a stage where Guaidó spoke and took an oath to serve as interim president.[104][105][106]
Mike Pence meets with Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges, and other Washington-based Venezuelan representatives on 29 January 2019
Guaidó began to appoint individuals in late January to serve as aides or diplomats, including Carlos Vecchio as the Guaidó administration's diplomatic envoy to the US,[110]Gustavo Tarre to the OAS,[111] and Julio Borges to represent Venezuela in the Lima Group.[112] He announced that the National Assembly had approved a commission to implement a plan for the reconstruction of Venezuela,[113][114] called Plan País (Plan for the Country).[115] He offered an Amnesty law, approved by the National Assembly, for military personnel and authorities who help to restore constitutional order.[116][117] The Statute Governing the Transition to Democracy was approved by the National Assembly on 5 February.[118]
Maduro responds
Maduro accused the US of backing a coup, and said he would cut ties with them.[119] He said Guaidó's actions were part of a "well-written script from Washington" to create a puppet state of the United States,[120] and appealed to the American people in a 31 January video, asking them not to convert Venezuela into another Vietnam.[121]
Maduro asked for dialogue with Guaidó, saying "if I have to go meet this boy in the Pico Humboldt at three in the morning I am going, [...] if I have to go naked, I am going, [I believe] that today, sooner rather than later, the way is open for a reasonable, sincere dialogue".[122] He stated he would not leave the presidential office, saying that he was elected in compliance with the Venezuelan constitution.[123] With the two giving speeches to supporters at the same time, Guaidó replied to Maduro's call for dialogue, saying he would not initiate diplomatic talks with Maduro because he believed it would be a farce and fake diplomacy that could not achieve anything.[124]
On 18 February, Maduro's government expelled a group of Members of the European Parliament that planned to meet Guaidó.[125] The expulsion was condemned by Guaidó as well as Pablo Casado, president of the Spanish People's Party, and the Colombian government.[126] Maduro's Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza defended the expulsions,[127] saying that the constitutional government of Venezuela "will not allow the European extreme right to disturb the peace and stability of the country with another of its gross interventionist actions" and added that "Venezuela must be respected."[128]
Location of the proposed entry points for humanitarian aid.
Shortages in Venezuela have been present since 2007 during the presidency of Hugo Chávez.[129] In 2016, the National Assembly of Venezuela declared a humanitarian crisis, asking Maduro's government to provide access to essential medicines and medical supplies.[30] Before the presidential crisis, the Maduro government denied several offers of aid, stating that there was not a humanitarian crisis and that such claims were used to justify foreign intervention.[130] Maduro's refusal of aid worsened the effects of Venezuela's crisis.[130] During the presidential crisis, Maduro initially refused aid, stating that Venezuela is not a country of "beggars".[131]
Guaidó made bringing humanitarian aid to the country a priority.[132] In early February, Maduro prevented the American-sponsored aid from entering Venezuela via Colombia,[132][133] and Venezuela's communications minister, Jorge Rodriguez, said there was a plot between Colombia, the CIA and exiled Venezuelan politician Julio Borges to oust Maduro.[134] Humanitarian aid intended for Venezuela was also stockpiled on the Brazilian border,[135] and two indigenous Pemon people were killed as they attempted to block military vehicles from entering the area, when members of armed forces loyal to Maduro fired upon them with live ammunition.[136][137][138]
Guaidó issued an ultimatum to the Venezuelan Armed Forces, stating that humanitarian aid will enter Venezuela on 23 February and that the armed forces "will have to decide if it will be on the side of the Venezuelans and the Constitution or the usurper".[139] With what he declared was the help of the Venezuelan military,[140] Guaidó defied the restriction imposed by the Maduro administration on him leaving Venezuela, secretly crossed the border,[141] and appeared at the Venezuela Aid Live concert in Cúcuta, Colombia on 22 February,[142] also to be present for the planned delivery of humanitarian aid.[140][143] Testing Maduro's authority, he was met by presidents Iván Duque of Colombia,[142][144]Sebastián Piñera from Chile,[145] and Mario Abdo Benítez from Paraguay,[146] as well as the OAS Secretary General Almagro.[144]
On 23 February, trucks with humanitarian aid attempted to enter Venezuela from Brazil and Colombia;[147][148] the attempts failed, with only one truck able to deliver aid.[149] At the Colombia–Venezuela border, the caravans were tear-gassed or shot at with rubber bullets by Venezuelan personnel.[150][151] The National Guard repressed demonstrations on the Brazilian border and colectivos attacked protesters near the Colombian border,[152][153] leaving at least four dead,[154][155] and more than 285 injured.[156]
Lima Group meeting and Latin American tour
Guaidó, Colombia president Duque, and US vice president Pence during the February 2019 Lima Group meeting in Colombia
Guaidó traveled from Cúcuta to Bogotá for a 24 February meeting with US vice president Pence,[157][158] and a 25 February meeting of the Lima Group.[159][160] The group urged the International Criminal Court to pursue charges of crimes against humanity for the Maduro administration's use of violence against civilians and blockade of humanitarian aid.[161][162]
Pence did not rule out the use of US military force.[159] The Venezuelan government responded saying that Pence was trying to order others to take the country's assets, and saying that its basic rights were being disregarded in a campaign to unseat Maduro.[160] Brazil's vice president said it would not permit its territory to be used to invade Venezuela,[163] and the European Union cautioned against the use of military force.[160][164] The Lima Group rejected the use of force.[161] The US FAA warned pilots not to fly below 26,000feet over Venezuela,[165] and US military officials said they had flown reconnaissance flights off the coast of Venezuela to gather classified intelligence about Maduro.[166]
From Bogotá, Guaidó embarked on a regional tour to meet with the presidents of Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, and Ecuador,[167] to discuss ways to rebuild Venezuela and defeat Maduro.[168] Guaidó's trip was approved by Venezuela's National Assembly, as required by the Constitution of Venezuela,[169] but he faced the possibility of being imprisoned when returning to Venezuela because of the travel restriction placed upon him by the Maduro administration.[167][170] He re-entered Venezuela on 4 March, via Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía, and was received at the airport by diplomats[lower-alpha 5] and in Caracas by a crowd of supporters.[171][172] German ambassador Daniel Kriener was accused of interference in internal affairs and expelled from Venezuela because of his role in helping Guaidó re-enter.[171][173]
Guri Dam supplies 80% of Venezuela's electrical power.
In March 2019, Venezuela experienced a near total electrical blackout, and lost 150,000barrels per day in crude oil production during the blackout.[175][176] (Full recovery of oil production was expected to take months,[177] but by April, Venezuela's exports were steady at a million barrels daily, "partially due to inventory drains".[178])
Maduro accused the United States of "masterminding a 'demonic' plot to force him from power" according to The Guardian.[179] Maduro prosecutor Tarek Saab called for an investigation of Guaidó, alleging that he had "sabotaged" the electric sector.[180] Guaidó said that Venezuela's largest-ever power outage was "the product of the inefficiency, the incapability, the corruption of a regime that doesn't care about the lives of Venezuelans",[180] and The Guardian reported that "many specialists believe the calamitous nationwide blackout...is the result of years of mismanagement, corruption and incompetence".[181]
Maduro called on the colectivos saying, "The time has come for active resistance".[181][182] The United States withdrew all embassy personnel from Venezuela.[183]
While Maduro visited hydroelectric facilities in Ciudad Guayana on 16 March, promising to restructure the state-run power company Corpoelec, his Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced that Maduro would restructure his administration, asking the "entire executive Cabinet to put their roles up for review".[184] Guaidó announced he would embark on a tour of the country beginning 16 March, to organize committees for Operation Freedom with the goal to claim the presidential residence, Miraflores Palace.[185] From the first rally in Carabobo state, he said, "We will be in each state of Venezuela and for each state we have visited the responsibility will be yours, the leaders, the united, [to] organize ourselves in freedom commands."[185]
Elvis Amoroso, comptroller for the Maduro administration, alleged in March that Guaidó had not explained how he paid for his February 2019 Latin American trip,[191] and said Guaidó would be barred from running for public office for fifteen years.[192][193] The comptroller general is not a judicial body; according to constitutional lawyer José Vicente Haro, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled in 2011 that an administrative body cannot disallow a public servant from running. Constitutional law expert Juan Manuel Raffalli stated that Article 65 of Venezuela's Constitution provides that such determinations may only be made by criminal courts, after judgment of criminal activity.[194]
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kimberly Breier, Juan Guaidó's wife Fabiana Rosales, U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams, and Venezuelan Ambassador to the U.S. Carlos Vecchio, and diplomat in Washington, D.C. on 27 March 2019
Francesco Rocca, president of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, announced in March that the Red Cross was preparing to bring humanitarian aid to the country in April to help ease both the chronic hunger and the medical crisis.[195] The Wall Street Journal said that the acceptance of humanitarian shipments by Maduro was his first acknowledgement that Venezuela is "suffering from an economic collapse".[196][197] After a 9 April meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),[198] Maduro indicated, for the first time, that he was prepared to accept international aid.[199] Guaidó called on Venezuelans to "stay vigilant to make sure incoming aid is not diverted for 'corrupt' purposes".[197]
Following the joint report from Human Rights Watch and Johns Hopkins in April 2019, increasing announcements from the United Nations about the scale of the humanitarian crisis, and the softening of Maduro's position on receiving aid, the ICRC tripled its budget for aid to Venezuela.[200] The first Red Cross delivery of supplies for hospitals arrived on 16 April, offering an encouraging sign that the Maduro administration would allow more aid to enter.[201] According to The New York Times, "armed pro-government paramilitaries" fired weapons to disrupt the first Red Cross delivery, and officials associated with Maduro's party told the Red Cross to leave.[202]
According to the Associated Press, having long denied that there was a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, Maduro positioned the delivery "as a necessary measure to confront punishing U.S. economic sanctions". Having "rallied the international community", Guaidó "quickly claimed credit for the effort".[203]
Parliamentary immunity
TSJ supreme justice Maikel Moreno asked that the Constituent Assembly (ANC), which is controlled by Maduro loyalists, remove Guaidó's parliamentary immunity as president of the National Assembly,[204][205] moving the Maduro administration a step closer towards prosecuting Guaidó.[206] Supporters of Guaidó disagree that the Maduro-backed institutions have the authority to ban Guaidó from leaving the country, and consider acts of the ANC "null and void".[204] The Venezuelan Constitution provides that only the National Assembly can bring the President to trial by approving the legal proceeding in a "merit hearing".[204] On 2 April, after the ANC voted to remove his parliamentary immunity, Guaidó promised to continue fighting "Maduro’s 'cowardly, miserable and murderous' regime".[207]
In an open assembly celebrating the anniversary of the 19 April 1810 date when the Venezuelan War of Independence began, Guaidó offered the example that organized protests in Sudan led to the replacement of Omar al-Bashir, and called for "the greatest march" in history on 1 May, to "once and for all end this tragedy".[208] Coinciding with his speech, NetBlocks stated that state-run CANTV again blocked access to social media in Venezuela.[209]
On 30 April 2019, Leopoldo López—held under house arrest by the Maduro administration—was freed on orders from Guaidó.[210] The two men, flanked by members of the Venezuelan armed forces near La Carlota Air Force Base in Caracas, announced an uprising,[211] stating that this was the final phase of "Operation Freedom".[212]
The United States said Maduro had prepared to leave Venezuela that morning, but Russia and Cuba helped convince him to stay,[213][214][215] Maduro and Russia denied that Maduro had plans to leave Venezuela.[216] Maduro was not seen during the day,[213] but he appeared with his Defense Minister Padrino on that evening's televised broadcast,[217] and announced he would replace Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera, the Director General of Venezuela's National Intelligence Service, SEBIN, who had broken with Maduro during the uprising.[218]
Guaidó's call for the largest march in history did not materialize and his supporters were forced to retreat by security forces using tear gas. Colectivos fired on protesters with live ammunition, and one protester was shot in the head and killed.[219][220]Human Rights Watch "said it believed that security forces fired shotgun pellets at demonstrators and journalists".[221] By the end of the day, one protester had died,[219] and López was at the Spanish embassy,[222] while 25 military personnel sought asylum in the Brazilian embassy in Caracas.[223] CNN reported that the "uprising faltered, having apparently failed to gain the support of senior members of the Venezuelan military".[224]
Guaidó acknowledged he had received insufficient military backing,[221] but added that "Maduro did not have the support nor the respect of the Armed Forces",[225] and called for strikes beginning on 2 May, with the aim of a general strike later in the month.[220] Russia and the U.S. each charged the other with interference in another country's affairs.[221]
Judge Marisela Godoy walked out of a Venezuela Supreme Court (TSJ) hearing on 1 May that was to rule on the events of 30 April without the justices having access to the content of the ruling; Godoy said this had become a customary process in the TSJ, and she encouraged her colleagues to protest.[226]
Following the failed military uprising, momentum surrounding Guaidó had subsided and fewer supporters gathered at demonstrations, with Guaidó resorting to negotiations with Maduro.[227] Guaidó's deputy chief Rafael Del Rosario acknowledged that the debacle on 30 April made the prospect of removing Maduro more difficult.[227] Beginning negotiations was a setback for Guaidó's movement,[227][228] with the Associated Press stating, "Participation in the mediation effort is a reversal for the opposition, which has accused Maduro of using negotiations between 2016 and 2018 to play for time".[228] According to the New York Times, years of difficulties has made Maduro "adept at managing, if not solving, cascading crises",[227] while Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group stated that despite facing issues, Maduro "must be very pleased that he is now in the driving seat", with the ability to use the actions of Guaidó and international actors for propaganda purposes.[229]
Representatives of Guaidó and Maduro began mediation with the assistance of the Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution (NOREF), with Jorge Rodríguez and Héctor Rodríguez Castro serving as representatives for Maduro while Gerardo Blyde[es] and Stalin González were representatives for Guaidó.[228][230] Guaidó confirmed that there was an envoy in Norway, but assured that the opposition would not take part in "any kind of false negotiation" and that talks must lead to Maduro's resignation, a transitional administration and free and fair elections.[228][230]
In July 2019, Norway's commission carried out a third round of discussions between Guaidó's and Maduro's representatives in Barbados.[231] By August 2019, Maduro administration decided to halt talks with Guaidó's commission after Trump administration imposed new additional sanctions on Venezuela, ordering a freeze on all Venezuelan government assets in the United States and barred transactions with US citizens and companies.[232] The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet raised concern about these US sanctions against President Nicolás Maduro, calling the measures “extremely broad” and that they are capable of exacerbating the suffering of the Venezuelan people.[233]
Second visit of the OHCHR
Ahead of a three-week session of the UN Human Rights Council, the OHCHR chief, Michelle Bachelet, visited Venezuela from 19 to 21 June.[234] The Human Rights Commissioner met separately with both Maduro and Guaidó during her visit, as well as with Venezuelan prosecutor Tarek William Saab, some human right activists, and families of victims who experienced torture and state repression.[234][235] Protests occurred in front of the UN office in Caracas during the last day of the visit, denouncing rights abuses carried out by Maduro's administration.[235] Gilber Caro, who was released two days before the visit, joined the crowd.[236] Bachelet announced the creation of a delegation maintained by two UN officials that will remain in Venezuela to monitor the humanitarian situation.[235] Bachelet expressed concern that the recent sanctions on oil exports and gold trade could worsen the crisis that has increased since 2013.[235][237] She also called for the release of political prisoners in Venezuela.[234] This was the first time a United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights visited Venezuela.[237]
The final published report addressed the extrajudicial executions, torture, enforced disappearances and other right violations allegedly committed by Venezuelan security forces in the recent years.[238] Bachelet expressed her concerns for the "shockingly high" number of extrajudiciary killings and urged for the dissolution of the FAES.[239] According to the report 1569 cases of executions as consequence as a result of "resistance to authority" were registered by the Venezuelan authorities from 1 January to 19 March.[239] Other 52 deaths that occurred during 2019 protests have been attributed to colectivos.[240] The report also details how the Venezuelan government has "aimed at neutralising, repressing and criminalising political opponents and people critical of the government" since 2016.[239]
Guaidó showed support for the investigation, stating "the systematic violation of human rights, the repression, the torture... it is clearly identified in the (UN) report".[238] Maduro administration described the report as a "biased vision" and demanded it be "corrected".[241] In the words of Foreign Minister, "It’s a text lacking in scientific rigor, with serious errors in methodology and which seems like a carbon copy of previous reports".[241] Maduro would later state that the OHCHR "has declared itself an enemy" to Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution.[242]
Speaking to reporters after the UN Humans Rights Council, Bachelet announced the release of 22 Venezuelan prisoners, including 20 students, judge Maria Lourdes Afiuni (in her second house arrest since March) and journalist Braulio Jatar (arrested in 2016).[243] Bachelet welcomed the conditional releases and the acceptance of the two officers delegation as "the beginning of positive engagement on the country’s many human rights issues".[243]
Alleged coup plot and death of Acosta Arévalo
On 26 June, Maduro said that his government had arrested several defecting military, thus foiling a plot to remove him from power and to assassinate him, his wife and Diosdado Cabello.[244][245] The alleged plan also included the rescue of Raúl Baduel, a retired general imprisoned a second time in 2017, to install him as president.[245][244] Maduro accused Israel, Colombia, Chile and the United States of involvement in the plot.[245][246] Jorge Rodríguez said that the foiled plan involved the bombing of a government building, the seizing of La Carlota air base, and a bank robbery.[244] Guaidó dismissed the allegations as lies;[245] opposition members have frequently accused Maduro of coercion of arrested suspects and fabrication of plots for political gain.[245][247]
In the wake of the coup allegations, Guaidó said that there had been a kidnapping attempt directed at members of his entourage on a Caracas highway.[248] Eight armed men on motorcycles dressed as civilians allegedly surrounded a vehicle containing two of Guaidó's aides.[248][249] Guaidó, who was in a car further ahead, spoke with the armed civilians,[247] according to photos and a video released by his press team[249] and published by Infobae.[250] According to Guaidó, the group received orders from the Venezuelan Military Counter-intelligence agency DGCIM, but were not "hostile".[249][247]
Venezuelan navy captain Rafael Acosta Arévalo, previously arrested for charges related to the alleged foiled coup attempt, died during detention on 28 June.[251] Maduro administration did not provide a cause of death but announced an investigation on the matter.[252] Acosta Arevalo's wife, Venezuelan human rights advocates, Juan Guaidó and the US Department of State accused Maduro's administration of torturing the captain to death.[251] The Lima Group and the European Union have called for an independent investigation.[253] The preliminary autopsy determined that Acosta Arévalo's cause of death was "severe cerebral edema [brain swelling] caused by acute respiratory failure caused by a pulmonary embolism caused by rhabdomyolysis [a potentially life-threatening breakdown of muscle fibers] by multiple trauma".[254]
Guaidó loses support
By the end of 2019, support for Guaidó dropped, with protests organized by his movement resulting with low participation.[18][19][23][255] Pollster Datanalisis published figures showing that support for Guaidó decreased from 61% in February to 42% in November 2019.[23] According to Jesús Seguías, the head of the Venezuelan analysis firm Datincorp, "For years Washington and the Venezuelan opposition have said that Nicolás Maduro, and before him Hugo Chávez, were weak and about to fall ... but it’s clear that’s not the case".[256] Analyst Carlos Pina stated "The military support to President Maduro remains intact ... the opposition will need to rethink its strategy" and that "Guaido has also been very limited in suggesting or proposing a strategy that could change the current [status quo]".[19]
The conditions for any political change in 2020 are getting ever more remote.
An investigation led by Armando.info reported that nine members of the Guaidó-led National Assembly defended individuals sanctioned by the United States for their involvement in the controversial Local Committees for Supply and Production (CLAP) program. The investigation reported that the implicated lawmakers had written letters of support to the United States Treasury and others to a Colombian man named Carlos Lizcano, who authorities were investigating over his possible links to Alex Saab[es], another Colombian associated with the food distribution program and under United States sanctions. According to Armando.info, the lawmakers wrote the letters despite being aware of evidence that tied Lizcano to Saab.[23] Guaidó condemned the actions of the nine legislators, suspending them from their positions and stating that it was "unacceptable to use a state institution to attempt to whitewash the reputation of thieves".[23] The scandal damaged Guaidó's reputation among his supporters in Venezuela, with some members of the opposition beginning to call for new leadership, according to analysts and those involved.[23]
Into December 2019, Venezuelan pollster Meganalsis surveys showed that 10% of respondents approved of Guaidó compared to 9% who supported Maduro.[257] In a 4 December 2019 interview with Vox, Guaidó stated "We sense a firm commitment from the United States. ... I think they’re doing everything they could be doing under these circumstances, as are Colombia and Brazil."[258] When asked if he was nearer from removing Maduro from power than in January 2019, Guaidó replied "Absolutely. Back then we didn’t have multiple countries recognizing and supporting us. ... Today, we have way more tools at our disposal than we did one year ago".[258]Bloomberg reported two days later that the Trump administration began to doubt that an opposition led by Guaidó would remove Maduro from office.[17] The United States reportedly had no military option regarding Venezuela, though it began to debate on whether to partner with Russia to encourage Maduro to leave office or to increase pressure on Cuba, which is the Maduro government's main supporter.[17]
As support for Guaidó decreased, the Maduro government increased its pressure by allegedly "deploying bribes, intimidation and repression" according to The Washington Post, with Maduro attempting to divide the opposition in order to maintain power.[259]
Economy rebounds, murder decrease
Following increased sanctions throughout 2019, the Maduro government abandoned socialist policies established by Chávez, such as price and currency controls, which resulted in the country seeing a rebound from economic decline.[11] In a November 2019 interview with José Vicente Rangel on Televen, President Nicolás Maduro described dollarization as an “escape valve” that helps the recovery of the country, the spread of productive forces in the country and the economy. However, Maduro said that the Venezuelan bolívar will still remain as the national currency.[260]The Economist wrote that Venezuela had also obtained "extra money from selling gold, both from illegal mines and from its reserves, and narcotics".[11] Its article continues to explain that the improving economy led to more difficulties for Guaidó as Venezuelans who had a better situation were less likely to protest against Maduro.[11]
The murder rate in Venezuela had also decreased significantly between 2017 and 2020. In 2018, Venezuela's murder rate–described as the highest in the world–had begun to decrease to 81.4 per 100,000 people according to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory (OVV), with the organization stating that this downward trend was due to the millions of Venezuelans that emigrated from the country at the time.[261] The murder rate declined even further to 60.3 in 2019.[262]
As of November 2019, Guaidó is recognized as the interim president of Venezuela by 57 countries,[263] "including the US and most Latin American and European countries".[264] Other countries are divided between a neutral position, support for the National Assembly in general without endorsing Guaidó, and support for Maduro's presidency; internationally, support has followed traditional geopolitical lines, with Russia, China, Iran, Syria, and Cuba supporting Maduro, and the US, Canada, and most of Western Europe supporting Guaidó.[14][265]
The European Parliament recognized Guaidó as interim president.[266] The European Union unanimously recognized the National Assembly,[267] but Italy dissented on recognizing Guaidó.[268] The OAS approved a resolution on 10 January 2019 "to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro's new term".[269] In a 24 January special OAS session, sixteen countries including the US recognized Guaidó as interim president, but they did not achieve the majority needed for a resolution.[270] The United Nations called for dialogue and deescalation of tension, but could not agree on any other path for resolving the crisis.[271] Twelve of the fourteen members of the Lima Group recognize Guaidó;[272]Beatriz Becerra—on the day after she retired as head of the human rights subcommittee for the European Parliament—said that the International Contact Group, jointly sponsored by Uruguay and Mexico, had been of no use and "has been an artifact that has served no purpose since it was created". She said there had been no progress on the 90-day deadline for elections that the group established when it was formed, and she considered that the Contact Group should be terminated and efforts coordinated through the Lima Group.[273] During the 49th General Assembly of the Organization of American States, on 27 June, Guaidó's presidency was recognized by the organization.[8]
The Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict stated that there were on average 69 protests daily in Venezuela during the first three months of 2019, for a total of 6,211 protests, representing a significant increase over previous years (157% of protests for the same period in 2018, and 395% relative to the number in 2017).[274]
Following the failed uprising on 30 April, support for Guaidó declined, attendance to his demonstrations subsided and participants in committees organized by Guaidó stated that there has been little progress.[275][276]Reuters reported in June that analysts have predicted that Maduro would maintain his position as he gains confidence that his actions against the opposition go "relatively unpunished".[275]
According to Colombian immigration authorities, as of 24 April 2019,
about 1,400
Venezuelan military personnel have broken ranks and crossed the border into Colombia since the border clashes began on 23 February,[277] in addition to 60 that have crossed into Brazil, according to the Brazilian Army.[277]
The Miami Herald reported that dozens of arrests were made in anticipation of a military uprising, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López ordered a counterintelligence effort to locate conspirators or possible defectors.[278] According to France 24, Maduro declared "military deserters who fled to Colombia have become mercenaries" as part of a US-backed coup.[279] Guaidó declared that the opposition had held secret meetings with military officials to discuss the Amnesty Law.[280]
Hugo Carvajal, the head of Venezuela's military intelligence for ten years during Hugo Chávez's presidency and "one of the government's most prominent figures",[281] publicly broke with Maduro and endorsed Guaidó as acting president.[282] During the 30 April 2019 Venezuelan uprising, Manuel Ricardo Cristopher Figuera, the Director General of Venezuela's National Intelligence Service, SEBIN, broke with Maduro, saying it was time to "rebuild the country",[218] and that "scoundrels were plundering the country".[283]
Certain top military figures recognized Guaidó,[284][285] and around 1,400 military personnel have defected to Colombia, but top military command stays loyal to the government.[224]
Following the 23 January events, some Venezuelan diplomats in the United States supported Guaidó; the majority returned to Venezuela on Maduro's orders.[286]
On 18 February, President Donald Trump advised Venezuelan soldiers to renounce loyalty to Nicolás Maduro.
In early 2019, with Cuban and Russian-backed security forces in the country, United States military involvement became the subject of speculation.[288] Senior U.S. officials have declared that "all options are on the table",[289] but have also said that "our objective is a peaceful transfer of power".[290]
Maduro announced that state funds would be used to purchase new military equipment, saying "we are going to make enough investment so that Venezuela has all the anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems ...even the most modern in the world, Venezuela will have them because Venezuela wants peace".[291]
Colombian guerrillas from National Liberation Army (ELN) have vowed to defend Maduro, with ELN leaders in Cuba stating that they are drafting plans to provide military assistance to Maduro.[292]
According to Giancarlo Fiorella, writing in Foreign Affairs, the "loudest calls for intervention are coming not from the White House and its media mouthpieces but from some members of the Venezuelan opposition and from residents of the country desperate for a solution—any solution—to their years-long plight."[289] Fiorella states that "talk of invoking article 187(11) has become commonplace" in Venezuela, adding that "the push for a military intervention in Venezuela is most intense not among hawks in Washington but inside the country itself".[289] Article 187 of the Constitution of Venezuela provides: "It shall be the function of the National Assembly: (11) To authorize the operation of Venezuelan military missions abroad or foreign military missions within the country."[64][289] In every demonstration summoned by Guaidó, there are numerous signs demanding the application of Article 187.[293] Following the unsuccessful attempt to bring humanitarian aid into Venezuela on 23 February, a political faction supported by National Assembly deputy María Corina Machado began to demand application of Article 187, to "open the way" for "foreign intervention in order to prevent crimes against humanity".[289] Former mayor of Caracas, Antonio Ledezma has also called for application of 187, and the calls for intervention have taken hold outside of the political realm, with a March poll showing 87.5% support for foreign intervention.[lower-alpha 6][289] Guaidó has said he will call for intervention "when the time comes", but in media interviews, he has not stated he supports removing Maduro by force.[289]
The National Assembly approved in July 2019 the reincorporation of Venezuela to the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Tratado Interamericano de Asistencia Recíproca).[294] Known as the Rio Pact or Rio Treaty, and by its Spanish-language acronym, TIAR is a mutual defense pact signed in 1947 that has never been enacted.[295] Its premise is that "an armed attack by any State against an American State shall be considered an attack against all American States".[295] Venezuela retired from TIAR in 2013; Deputy Francisco Sucre stated that Chávez had removed Venezuela from the pact in a "strategy to isolate Venezuela by a totalitarian system mirroring [Cuba]".[296] Venezuela's reincorporation to the pact "can be used to request military assistance against foreign troops inside the country".[296]
Cuban presence
According to professor Erick Langer of Georgetown University, "Cuba and Russia have already intervened".[288] A Cuban military presence of at least 15,000 personnel was in Venezuela in early 2018,[297] while estimates ranging from hundreds to thousands of Cuban security forces were reported in 2019.[288] In April 2019, Trump threatened a "full and complete embargo, together with highest-level sanctions" on Cuba if its troops do not cease operations in Venezuela.[298]
Russian presence
Two nuclear weapon-capable Russian planes landed in Venezuela in December 2018 in what Reuters called a "show of support for Maduro's socialist government".[299] On 3 March 2019, Russian Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko told Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez that Russia will make every effort to prevent military intervention in Venezuela and believes that the crisis was artificially created by the US, which can be solved only through dialogue.[300]
According to the Kremlin, there are about 100 Russian military personnel in Venezuela "to repair equipment and provide technical co-operation".[301] On 23 March 2019, two Russian planes landed in Venezuela carrying 99 troops[302] and 35tonnes of matériel.[299] Alexey Seredin from the Russian Embassy in Caracas said the two planes were "part of an effort to maintain Maduro's defense apparatus, which includes Sukhoi fighter jets and anti-aircraft systems purchased from Russia".[302]
Diosdado Cabello said the arrival of the planes was approved and authorized by Maduro.[303] Russian Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also confirmed the presence of military personnel in Venezuela, arguing that the countries had a bilateral agreement on military cooperation signed by Presidents Putin and Chávez in May 2001.[304][305]
Vladimir Zaemsky, Russia's ambassador to Venezuela, said that the Russian military are helping their Venezuelan counterparts to defend themselves in the face of the "threat of the use of force" by the United States. Ambassador Zaemsky also said that the Venezuelan military needs to make sure that the weapons they have are in a functioning state while maintaining combat readiness of their equipment and teach them how best to use it.[306]
National Assembly deputy Williams Dávila said the National Assembly would investigate the "penetration of foreign forces in Venezuela", since Venezuela's Constitution requires that the legislature authorize foreign military missions and the arrival of Russian military was a "violation of Venezuelan sovereignty".[307] Guaidó declared that foreign soldiers have been "imported" because Maduro's government does not trust the Venezuelan Armed Forces.[308][309]
On 26 June, Russia announced the withdrawal of its military technicians, operating in Venezuela since March. According to the Russian embassy in Caracas, "Russia delivered to Venezuela high-level equipment that requires regular maintenance. Furthermore, Russian specialists provided technical training to Venezuelan staff. Unlike reported, it was not a Russian military presence but the fulfillment of maintenance contracts".[310]
Assets and reserves
Venezuela's third-largest export (after crude oil and refined petroleum products) is gold.[311] The World Gold Council reported in January 2019 that Venezuela's foreign-held gold reserves had fallen by 69% to US$8.4billion during Maduro's presidency.[311] In 2018, Maduro's government exported $900 million worth of gold out of Venezuela into Erdoğan's Turkey.[312] In April 2019, Rubio warned the United Arab Emirates and Turkey not be "accomplices" in the "outrageous crime" of exporting Venezuela's gold.[313]
In mid-December 2018, a Venezuelan delegation went to London to arrange for the Bank of England to return the $1.2billion in gold bullion that Venezuela stores at the bank. Unnamed sources told Bloomberg that the Bank of England declined the transfer due to a request from US Secretary of State Pompeo and National Security Adviser Bolton, who wanted to "cut off the regime from its overseas assets".[314] In an interview with the BBC, Maduro asked Britain to return the gold instead of sending humanitarian aid, saying that the gold was "legally Venezuela's, it belongs to the Central Bank of Venezuela" and could be used to solve the country's problems. Guaidó asked the British government to ensure that the Bank of England does not provide the gold to the Maduro government. Maduro also said that US sanctions have frozen $10 billion in Venezuelan overseas accounts.[315]
In mid-February 2019, a National Assembly legislator Angel Alvarado said that about eighttonnes of gold had been taken from the vault while the head of the Central Bank was abroad.[316] In March, Ugandan investigators reported that 7.4 tonnes of gold worth over US$300million could have been smuggled into that country.[317] Government sources said another eight tonnes of gold was taken out of the Central Bank in the first week of April 2019; the government source said that there were 100 tonnes left. The gold was removed while minimal staff was present and the bank was not fully operational because of the ongoing, widespread power outages; the destination of the gold was not known.[318][319]
In 2009, Venezuela's foreign reserves peaked at US$43 billion; by July 2017, they had fallen below $10 billion "for the first time in 15 years",[320] and as of March 2019, they had dropped to US$8 billion.[321] About two-thirds of Venezuela's reserves are in gold.[322] Part of Venezuela's remaining reserves are held by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in financial instruments called SDRs. In 2018, Venezuela had almost $1billion in IMF SDRs, but it had drawn US$600 million in one year. To access SDR reserves, IMF rules require that a government be recognized by a majority of IMF members, and there is no majority recognition for either man claiming the Venezuelan presidency; the IMF denied Maduro access to the remaining US$400million—"one of the regime’s last remaining sources of cash" according to Bloomberg.[322] The IMF has not recognized Guaidó;[323]Ricardo Hausmann—Guaidó's representative recognized by the Inter-American Development Bank—said the "IMF is safeguarding the assets until a new government takes over. 'Those funds will be available when this usurpation ends.'" The US has given Guaidó control of "key Venezuelan bank accounts",[322] and has said it will give Guaidó control of US assets once his administration is in power.[315]
The Portuguese bank Novo Banco stopped Maduro's attempt to transfer over US$1billion[324] through BANDES subsidiary, Banco Bandes Uruguay, in early 2019.[325] Over two months later, Maduro responded that Portugal had illegally blocked the money, and asked that it be returned to buy food and medicine.[326]
In May, the Central Bank of Venezuela released economic data for the first time since 2015. According to this release, the inflation of Venezuela was 274% in 2016, 863% in 2017 and 130,060% in 2018.[327] The new reports imply a contraction of more than half of the economy in five years, according to the Financial Times "one of the biggest contractions in Latin American history".[328] According two undisclosed sources from Reuters, the release of this numbers was due to pressure from China. One of this sources claims that the disclosure of economic numbers may bring Venezuela into compliance with the IMF, making it harder to support Juan Guaidó.[329] At the time, the IMF was not able to support the validity of the data as they had not been able to contact the authorities.[329]
During the crisis in Venezuela, the United States, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Panama and Switzerland have applied individual sanctions against people associated with Maduro's administration, including government officials, members of the military and security forces, and private individuals alleged to be involved in human rights abuses, corruption, degradation in the rule of law and repression of democracy. Public Radio International (PRI) said the sanctions targeted Maduro and Chavismo "elites", while "they've done little to make an impact on ordinary Venezuelans, whose lives have spiraled into a humanitarian crisis as hyperinflation has driven nearly 3 million to flee."[330] As of 27 March 2018, the Washington Office on Latin America said 78Venezuelans associated with Maduro had been sanctioned by several countries.[331]
As the humanitarian crisis deepened and expanded, the Trump administration levied more serious economic sanctions against Venezuela, and "Maduro accused the US of plunging Venezuelan citizens further into economic crisis."[330] In January 2019, during the presidential crisis, the United States imposed sanctions on the Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company PDVSA to pressure Maduro to resign.[332]Reuters said the sanctions are expected to reduce Venezuela's ability to purchase food and other imports which could result in further shortages and worsen its economic position.[332] PRI said that "sanctions against PDVSA are likely to yield stronger and more direct economic consequences".[330] Companies including India's Reliance Industries Limited, Russia's Rosneft, Spain's Repsol, and commodity trading companies Trafigura and Vitol continue to supply Venezuela's oil industry as of April 2019.[333]
On 17 April, Reuters reported that Repsol was in discussion with the Trump administration and had suspended its swaps with PDVSA.[334] Stating it was a "sign of the growing dependence of Venezuela's cash-strapped government on Russia", Reuters reported on 18 April 2019 that the Maduro administration was bypassing the sanctions by funneling cash from petroleum sales through Russia's Rosneft.[335] Reliance denied reports that it was in violation of sanctions.[336] Venezuela's oil production in April was eight percent higher than it was in March, during the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts, with most shipments to buyers from India and China.[178]
The United States Department of the Treasury has also placed restrictions on transactions with digital currency emitted by or in the name of the government of Venezuela, referencing "Petro", a crypto-currency also known as petromoneda.[337] and on Venezuela's gold industry.[338] After the detention of Guaidó's chief of staff, Roberto Marrero, in March 2019, the US also sanctioned the Venezuelan bank BANDES and its subsidiaries.[339]
In a speech on 17 April 2019 in Miami which marked the anniversary of the failed 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion, Bolton announced new restrictions on U.S. dealings with the three countries he calls the troika of tyranny—Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela—as "part of a broader set of policies" aimed at "reversing the Obama administration's embrace" of Cuba.[340] Maduro said the sanctions were "totally illegal" and that "Central banks around the world are sacred, all countries respect them. ... To me the empire looks crazy, desperate."[341]
Later on 21 January, the day of a National Guard mutiny in Cotiza, internet access to some social media was reported blocked for CANTV users. The Venezuelan government denied it had engaged in blocking.[347][348] During the 23 January protests, widespread internet outages for CANTV users were reported.[349][350]
Live streams of the National Assembly sessions and Guaidó's speeches have been regularly disrupted for CANTV users.[351] Since 22 January, some radio programs have been ordered off air; other programs have been temporarily canceled or received censorship warnings, including a threat to close private television and radio stations if they recognize Guaidó as acting president or interim president of Venezuela.[352]
The website "Voluntarios X Venezuela" was promoted by Guaidó and the National Assembly to gather volunteers for humanitarian aid.[353] Between 12 and 13 February, CANTV users that tried to access were redirected to a mirror site with a different URL address. The mirror site asked for personal information: names, ID, address and telephone numbers. The phishing website used the .ve domain controlled by Conatel. This manipulation was denounced as a technique to identify dissidents to the government.[354] Following the phishing incident, the official site was completely blocked for CANTV users on 16 February.[355]
The Venezuelan press workers union denounced that in 2019, 40journalists had been illegally detained as of 12 March; the National Assembly Parliamentary Commission for Media declared that there had been 173aggressions against press workers as of 13 March. The commission planned to report these aggressions to the International Criminal Court.[356]
Arrests and detentions
Multiple individuals associated with Guaidó were arrested or detained by the Maduro government.
Roberto Marrero—Guaidó's chief of staff and Leopoldo López's attorney—was arrested by SEBIN during a raid on his home on 21 March.[357] The US had repeatedly warned Maduro not to go after Guaidó; Haaretz reported that the arrest of Guaidó's number-two person was a test of the US.[357] The United States Department of the Treasury responded by placing sanctions on the Venezuelan bank BANDES and its subsidiaries,[339][358] in direct response to Marrero's arrest.[359]
Gilber Caro, a National Assembly alternate deputy and member of Guaido's party, Popular Will, was re-arrested by the Venezuelan intelligence services (SEBIN) on 26 April 2019,[360][361] having been previously accused of plotting against Maduro's administration.[361] Guaidó,[361] the National Assembly,[362] OAS General Secretary Almagro[362] and the UN Human Rights office[363] condemned the new arrest as a violation of parliamentary immunity. Eleven other members of Guaido's team have been summoned to appear before SEBIN.[364]
Vice president of the National Assembly, Edgar Zambrano, arrested in May.
Most of the individuals who were seen with Guaidó during the attempted uprising and many legislators were either arrested or in hiding.[227] In May 2019, the TSJ ordered the prosecution of seven National Assembly members for their actions on 30 April.[365][366][lower-alpha 7] The rival Constituent Assembly stripped the members of their parliamentary immunity.[366] The National Assembly dismissed the sentence, holding that the members of the Tribunal are illegitimate and that their ruling violates the parliamentary immunity of the deputies.[368] As of 2 May 2019, there were 205 arrests related to protests.[369] The TSJ issued an arrest warrant for Leopoldo López on 2 May, who exited the gates of the Spanish Embassy, with his wife Lilian Tintori, to speak with reporters, saying that Maduro's days are numbered.[370] Maduro appeared at an army base to praise the loyalty of the forces.[371]
National Assembly vice president Edgar Zambrano was arrested on 8 May. 2019[372] With the seven deputies charged with "treason, conspiracy, instigation of insurrection, civil rebellion, criminal conspiracy, usurpation of functions, and public instigation to the disobedience of the laws", an El País article stated that the Venezuelan parliament, elected to a majority in the 2015 elections, has been "systematically blocked" and dismembered by "political persecution" of 60% of its elected members.[373][lower-alpha 8] There was no preliminary merit hearing as required by law; an additional three deputies were indicted without a preliminary merit hearing.[373][lower-alpha 9] Three of the recently sanctioned members[lower-alpha 10] sought temporary refuge in foreign embassies.[376]
Iván Simonovis—a former police commissioner arrested in 2004 and accused by the Hugo Chávez government of the violence that took place in Caracas during the April 2002 Llaguno Overpass events[377]—left house arrest in May 2019. Guaidó said that security forces loyal to him had released Simonovis,[378] and that Simonovis was freed and pardoned as part of Operation Freedom.[379] Simonovis arrived in the United States in June 2019.[380]
On 13 July 2019, two of Guaidó's security guards were arrested in Caracas.[381][382] According to Information Minister Jorge Rodríguez, the two guards had attempted to sell rifles that had been taken from a National Guard armory ahead of the failed uprising on 30 April 2019.[381] Guaidó said that the guards were arrested while protecting his family during his tour around the country. He dismissed the weapon sale allegations and speculated that the authorities would torture and frame the two men by planting weapons on them.[383][382] Rodríguez announced that evidence would be presented during the next round of talks.[381]
↑ On unchecked power of the executive: Human Rights Watch 2018 report,[49] Human Rights Watch 2017 report,[50] Amnesty International,[51] and Amnesty International on opposition.[52]
1 2 3 See the full article in the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.[64]
↑ Later paragraphs describe what to do in the event of a vacancy due to "permanent unavailability to serve", depending on when the vacancy occurs.
Prior to elected President's inauguration, "a new election shall take place The President of the National Assembly shall take charge of the Presidency of the Republic".
During the first four years of President's six-year term, "a new election ...shall be held within thirty consecutive days... The Executive Vice-President shall take charge of the Presidency of the Republic".
During the last two years of President's six-year term, "the Executive Vice-President shall take over the Presidency of the Republic until such term is completed".
↑ Diplomats from Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Ecuador, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain and the United States received Guaidó at the airport.[171]
↑ Foreign Affairs states "this figure is likely inflated—the surveys do not define what a military intervention under 187(11) would look like.[289]
The President of Venezuela, officially known as the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela is the head of state and head of government in Venezuela. The president leads the National Executive of the Venezuelan government and is the commander-in-chief of the National Bolivarian Armed Forces. Presidential terms were set at six years with the adoption of the 1999 Constitution of Venezuela, and presidential term limits were removed in 2009.
Nicolás Maduro Moros is a Venezuelan politician serving as president of Venezuela since 2013, with his presidency being disputed with Juan Guaidó since January 2019.
The Lima Group is a multilateral body that was established following the Lima Declaration on 8 August 2017 in the Peruvian capital of Lima, where representatives of 12 countries met in order to establish a peaceful exit to the Crisis in Venezuela.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela by 2020 to elect the 167 deputies of the National Assembly.
Juan Gerardo Guaidó Márquez is a Venezuelan politician, a member of the social-democratic Popular Will party, federal deputy to the National Assembly representing the state of Vargas, and currently serves as the President of the National Assembly of Venezuela since 5 January 2019. On 23 January 2019, Guaidó and the National Assembly declared he was acting President of Venezuela, receiving formal recognition of legitimacy by almost 60 governments worldwide, and starting the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis by challenging Nicolás Maduro's presidency.
The second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro as President of Venezuela took place on Thursday, 10 January 2019. The inauguration involved the swearing-in of Nicolás Maduro for his second term, and, especially within the context of Maduro's election, has been controversial and contested by various figures and organizations.
The Venezuelan state company CANTV, the main telecommunications provider to Venezuela, has issued a block against the online encyclopedia, Wikipedia. CANTV has 1.5 million users, all of whom were affected by the decision.
The 2019 Venezuelan protests began in the first days of January as a result of the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis. Protests against the legitimacy of the Nicolás Maduro's presidency began at the time of his second inauguration following a controversial presidential election in 2018. Rallies of support were also held for President of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, with some Venezuelans and foreign government's recognizing him as the acting President of Venezuela.
The 2019 Venezuelan protests are a collection of protests that have been organized, since 11 January, as a coordinated effort to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency. Demonstrations began following Maduro's controversial second inauguration, developing into a presidential crisis between Maduro and National Assembly president Juan Guaidó. The protests also include counter-demonstrations organized by those who support Maduro.
The International Conference on the Situation in Venezuela was a meeting of states which occurred in Montevideo, Uruguay, on 7 February 2019 to address the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis about the legitimacy of claims to the Venezuelan presidency by Juan Guaidó and Nicolás Maduro. The conference was jointly sponsored by the governments of Mexico and Uruguay; other participating countries included Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, forming the International Contact Group on Venezuela.
Edgar José Zambrano Ramírez is a Venezuelan lawyer and politician that currently serves as a National Assembly deputy for the Lara state. Since January 5, 2019, he has served as First Vice President of the Assembly. He was President of the Permanent Defense and Security Parliamentary Commission between 2016 and 2018. He is the vice president of the opposition political party Democratic Action.
During the presidential crisis between the Venezuelan governments of Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, a coalition of Colombia, Brazil, the United States and the Netherlands attempted to bring essential goods as a response to shortages in Venezuela. The three main bases used for the operation are: the Colombian city of Cúcuta, the Brazilian state of Roraima,, and the island of Curaçao, of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
During the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis concerning who is the legitimate President of Venezuela, reactions and responses to the crisis have been divided.
Roberto Eugenio Marrero Borjas is a Venezuelan attorney, politician, and chief of staff to Juan Guaidó; he was arrested by SEBIN during a raid on his home in the early morning hours of 21 March 2019, and detained in El Helicoide, a prison run by SEBIN and "considered the country's largest torture center" according to Clarín. Marrero is also an attorney for Leopoldo López; López is Guaidó's mentor and a political prisoner.
Fabiana Andreina Rosales Guerrero, also known as Fabiana Rosales de Guaidó, is a Venezuelan journalist and social media human rights activist. She is married to Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly and a claimant to the country's acting presidency in the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis. She is considered by the White House and the National Assembly of Venezuela as the first lady of Venezuela.
There has been censorship and media control during the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis.
The negotiations during the crisis in Venezuela are the negotiation and dialogue attempts and processes between the government of President Nicolás Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition.
Defections from the Bolivarian Revolution occurred under the administrations of Presidents Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. The 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis concerning who is the legitimate President of Venezuela has been underway since 10 January 2019, when the opposition-majority National Assembly declared that incumbent Nicolás Maduro's 2018 reelection was invalid and the body declared its president, Juan Guaidó, to be acting president of the nation. Guaidó encouraged military personnel and security officials to withdraw support from Maduro, and offered an amnesty law, approved by the National Assembly, for military personnel and authorities who help to restore constitutional order.
During the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis, AP News reported that "familiar geopolitical sides" had formed, with allies Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cuba supporting Maduro, and the US, Canada, and most of Western Europe supporting Juan Guaidó as interim president. Amid widespread condemnation, President Maduro was sworn in on 10 January 2019, and the President of the National Assembly, Guaidó, was declared the interim President by that body on 23 January 2019. Intervention by the United States in Venezuela has been alleged by allies of Nicolás Maduro and political figures from the left spectrum; Maduro's government states that the crisis is a "coup d'état led by the United States to topple him and control the country's oil reserves." Guaidó denies the coup allegations, saying peaceful volunteers back his movement.
On 30 April, during the 2019 Venezuelan presidential crisis, a group of several dozen military personnel and civilians joined Juan Guaidó in his call for an uprising against Nicolás Maduro as part of what he labeled "Operation Freedom". Reuters reported an "uneasy peace" by the afternoon of 30 April. During the uprising attempt, opposition leader Leopoldo López was freed from house arrest after being imprisoned for five years. The head of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service, Manuel Cristopher Figuera denounced the Maduro government and was dismissed from his position before going into hiding. At least 25 military men who opposed Maduro sought asylum at the Brazilian embassy in Caracas.
References
1 2 Bullock, Penn (10 January 2019). "Climate Change, U.S. Shutdown, Michael Cohen: Your Friday Briefing". New York Times (Online)– via ProQuest. President Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated for a second term after an election last year that was widely considered illegitimate — and despite a plummeting economy and skyrocketing violence, hunger and migration. Also available online.
↑ •Rodríguez, Jesús A (8 May 2019). "'We are going to take over the premises'". POLITICO Magazine. Retrieved 10 May 2019. In Venezuela, though the number of people who say they recognize Guaidó as the legitimate president has dwindled to about 50 percent since January, his approval remains much stronger than Maduro's abysmal 4 percent.
Wyss, Jim (6 May 2019). "As Guaido's popularity in Venezuela begins to dwindle, what's next for the opposition?". Miami Herald. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 10 May 2019. ... last week's failed military uprising and a spate of violent but fruitless demonstrations have some wondering if Guaido, and the opposition at large, have what it takes to oust Maduro ... A poll released Monday by Caracas-based Meganalisis found that Guaido's approval ratings dropped to 50 percent, down from 84 percent in January. He's still far more popular than Maduro whose approval rating is at 4 percent but the precipitous drop can't be ignored ...
Casoni, Giampiero (7 May 2019). "Venezuela, il gradimento di Guaidò cala a picco: meno 34% in soli tre mesi". Ci Siamo (in Italian). Retrieved 10 May 2019. The popularity of Juan Guaidò is in sharp decline and the 'liberator' of Venezuela seems to have exhausted the original propulsive thrust ... At the center of this drop in consensus, especially the failure (because of its failure) of the coup in recent weeks ...
↑ "Venezuela blackout, in 2nd day, threatens food supplies and patient lives". New York Times. 8 March 2019. Retrieved 18 March 2019. The Maduro administration has been responsible for grossly mismanaging the economy and plunging the country into a deep humanitarian crisis in which many people lack food and medical care. He has also attempted to crush the opposition by jailing or exiling critics, and using lethal force against antigovernment protesters.
↑ Forero, Juan (4 May 2019). "Venezuela's Opposition Came Close to Ousting the President—but the Plan Fell Apart; Regime insiders in talks with opposition are said to have lost confidence in the bid to remove Maduro". The Wall Street Journal– via ProQuest.
↑ "Venezuela: Events of 2018". Human Rights Watch. 20 December 2018. Retrieved 4 February 2019. No independent government institutions remain today in Venezuela to act as a check on executive power. A series of measures by the Maduro and Chávez governments stacked the courts with judges who make no pretense of independence. The government has been repressing dissent through often-violent crackdowns on street protests, jailing opponents, and prosecuting civilians in military courts. It has also stripped power from the opposition-led legislature. ...In 2017, President Maduro convened a 'Constituent Assembly' by presidential decree, despite a constitutional requirement that a public referendum be held before any effort to rewrite the Constitution. The assembly is made up exclusively of government supporters chosen through an election that Smartmatic, a British company hired by the government to verify the results, called fraudulent. The Constituent Assembly has, in practice, replaced the opposition-led National Assembly as the country’s legislative branch.
↑ "Venezuela: Events of 2017". Human Rights Watch. 5 January 2018. Retrieved 4 February 2019. The Venezuelan government has jailed political opponents and disqualified them from running for office. At time of writing, more than 340 political prisoners were languishing in Venezuelan prisons or intelligence services headquarters, according to the Penal Forum, a Venezuelan network of pro-bono criminal defense lawyers. ...In mid-2017, the Supreme Court sentenced five opposition mayors, after summary proceedings that violated international norms of due process, to 15 months in prison and disqualified them from running for office.
↑ "Venezuela 2017–2018". Amnesty International. Retrieved 4 February 2019. The judicial system continued to be used to silence dissidents, including using military jurisdiction to prosecute civilians. The justice system continued to be subject to government interference, especially in cases involving people critical of the government or those who were considered to be acting against the interests of the authorities. The Bolivarian National Intelligence Service continued to ignore court decisions to transfer and release people in its custody.
↑ "Wave of arrests as government turns against elected opposition". Amnesty International. 11 August 2017. Retrieved 4 February 2019. The arrest of four officials from the opposition in Venezuela, the removal from office of a further 11 and the issuing of arrest warrants against another five, demonstrates the Maduro administration’s tightening stranglehold on any form of dissent, taking repression to a frightening new level, said Amnesty International.
↑ "Shortage at its highest since May 2008". El Universal. 6 January 2012. Archived from the original on 6 August 2017. Retrieved 3 December 2014.CS1 maint: BOT: original-url status unknown (link)
↑ "Venezuela Aid Standoff Turns Deadly, Maduro Severs Ties with Colombia". The New York Times. 23 February 2019. Retrieved 24 February 2019. Mr. Guaidó, standing alongside the presidents of Paraguay, Colombia, and Chile urged the Venezuelan military to allow trucks to cross the border.” and "The presidents of Colombia, Chile and Paraguay attended the concert, rallying support for the opposition and calling for an end to Mr. Maduro’s presidency."
↑ Dube, Ryan (29 March 2019). "Red Cross announces Venezuelan aid effort". Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones Institutional News – via ProQuest. Also available online.
1 2 Torchia, Christopher (29 March 2019). "Red Cross ready to aid Venezuela, warns against politics". Washington Post. Associated Press – via ProQuest. Also available online.
↑ Hanke, Jakob and Hans von der Burchard (24 January 2019). "Brussels caught off-guard by Venezuela's political turmoil". POLITICO. Retrieved 26 January 2019. In a declaration published late Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the EU ... “fully supports the national assembly as the democratically elected institution whose powers need to be restored and respected.” ... Kocijančič said Mogherini’s statement had been “agreed with all 28 member states" ...
↑ •Rodríguez, Jesús A (8 May 2019). "We are going to take over the premises". POLITICO Magazine. Retrieved 10 May 2019. In Venezuela, though the number of people who say they recognize Guaidó as the legitimate president has dwindled to about 50 percent since January, his approval remains much stronger than Maduro's abysmal 4 percent.
Wyss, Jim (6 May 2019). "As Guaido's popularity in Venezuela begins to dwindle, what's next for the opposition?". Miami Herald. Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 10 May 2019. ... last week's failed military uprising and a spate of violent but fruitless demonstrations have some wondering if Guaido, and the opposition at large, have what it takes to oust Maduro ... A poll released Monday by Caracas-based Meganalisis found that Guaido's approval ratings dropped to 50 percent, down from 84 percent in January. He's still far more popular than Maduro whose approval rating is at 4 percent but the precipitous drop can't be ignored ...
Casoni, Giampiero (7 May 2019). "Venezuela, il gradimento di Guaidò cala a picco: meno 34% in soli tre mesi". Ci Siamo (in Italian). Retrieved 10 May 2019. The popularity of Juan Guaidò is in sharp decline and the 'liberator' of Venezuela seems to have exhausted the original propulsive thrust ... At the center of this drop in consensus, especially the failure (because of its failure) of the coup in recent weeks ...
↑ Herrero, Ana Vanessa and Nicholas Casey (22 February 2019). "Venezuela's Ex-Spy Chief Breaks With Maduro: 'You Have Killed Hundreds'". New York Times (Late Edition (East Coast) ed.). p.A.6 – via ProQuest. Also available online.
↑ Dube, Ryan and Kejal Vyas (21 February 2019). "Venezuelan Official Breaks With Maduro; Hugo Carvajal, the former military-intelligence chief, pledges support for opposition leader Juan Guaidó and says humanitarian aid should be let into the country". Wall Street Journal– via ProQuest. Also available online.
1 2 Zuñiga, Mariana and Anthony Faiola (30 March 2019). "As Maduro confronts a crisis, Russia's footprint in Venezuela grows: Moscow is seizing an opportunity to stick a finger in Washington's eye, experts say". The Washington Post– via ProQuest.
↑ "President Vladimir Putin had talks with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in the Kremlin". Kremlin.ru. 14 May 2001. Retrieved 28 March 2019. The Presidents were present at the ceremony of signing inter-governmental documents: an agreement on military-technical cooperation, on cooperation in fighting illegal drug trafficking and a protocol on creating a mechanism of political dialogue and cooperation between Russia and the Andes Community.
↑ Biggs, Stuart and Jess Shankleman (29 January 2019). "U.K. Leaves Fate of Venezuela's Gold Up to the Bank of England". Bloomberg. Retrieved 19 February 2019. According to a person familiar with the matter, the BOE declined the withdrawal request after U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton lobbied their U.K. counterparts to help cut off the regime from its overseas assets.
↑ "Venezuela's crisis drains its foreign reserves". Financial Times. 14 July 2017. Retrieved 10 April 2019. Venezuela's foreign reserves have dropped below $10bn for the first time in 15 years as chronic mismanagement, corruption and subdued oil prices continue to batter what used to be the wealthiest country in South America. The reserves stood at $9.983bn, according to figures published on Friday from the central bank, representing a 77 per cent decrease since January 2009 when they hit a peak of $43bn.
1 2 3 Arrioja, Jose Enrique and Ben Bartenstein (10 April 2019). "Maduro is cut off from $400 million in cash held at the IMF". Bloomberg. Retrieved 10 April 2019. The International Monetary Fund suspended the Venezuelan leader’s access to almost $400 million of special drawing rights, citing political chaos since National Assembly President Juan Guaido claimed in January that he was the nation’s rightful leader, said two people familiar with the matter. Venezuela already whittled its SDR holdings down from almost $1 billion in March 2018. Almost two-thirds of Venezuela’s $9 billion in foreign reserves are in the form of gold, which has been difficult to liquidate because of U.S. sanctions.
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