List of economic expansions in the United States

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In the United States the unofficial beginning and ending dates of national economic expansions have been defined by an American private non-profit research organization known as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER defines an expansion as a period when economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and typically lasts for several years. [1]

Contents

During the 19th century, the United States experienced frequent boom and bust cycles. This period was characterized by short, frequent periods of expansion, typically punctuated by periods of sharp recession. This cyclical pattern continued through the Great Depression. Economic growth since 1945 has been more stable with fewer recessions when compared to previous eras.

Great Depression onward

Annual Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate -- 1930 through 2022 Annual Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate -- 1930 through 2022.png
Annual Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate — 1930 through 2022

Following the end of World War II and the large adjustment as the economy adjusted from wartime to peacetime in 1945, the collection of many economic indicators, such as unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP) became standardized. Expansions after World War II may be compared to each other much more easily than previous expansions because of these available data. The listed dates and durations are from the official chronology of the National Bureau of Economic Research. [1]

The National Bureau of Economic Research dates expansions on a monthly basis. From the trough of the recession of 1945 to the late-2000s recession, there have been eleven periods of expansion, lasting an average of fifty-nine months. [1]

Included during this period is the post–World War II economic expansion through the 1973–75 recession, a period of stagflation between 1974 and 1981, and the Great Moderation from 1982 to the start of the late-2000s recession.

DatesDuration (months)Annual Employment Growth [2] Annual GDP Growth [3] Description
Oct 1945–
Nov 1948		37+5.2%+1.5%As the United States demobilized from World War II, the decline in government spending caused a brief recession in 1945 and suppressed GDP growth for several years thereafter. However, private economic activity expanded at a brisk pace throughout this period. The expansion lasted just over three years, followed by another brief recession in late 1948.
Oct 1949–
July 1953		45+4.4%+6.9%The United States exited recession in late 1949, and another robust expansion began. This expansion coincided with the Korean War, after which the Federal Reserve initiated more restrictive monetary policy. The slowdown in economic activity led to the recession of 1953, bringing an end to nearly four years of expansion.
May 1954–
Aug 1957		39+2.5%+4.0%Expansion resumed following a return to growth in May 1954. Employment and GDP growth slowed relative to the previous two expansions.
April 1958–
April 1960		24+3.6%+5.6%A brief, two-year period of expansion occurred between 1958 and 1960, followed by another monetary recession in 1960.
Feb 1961–
Dec 1969		106+3.3%+4.9%A long expansionary period began in 1961. Incomes and employment rose, while poverty fell sharply. The ongoing Vietnam War contributed to expansive fiscal policy, at the cost of rising inflation as the 1960s drew to a close.
Nov 1970–
Nov 1973		36+3.4%+5.1%Growth resumed after the brief recession of 1969–70, but ended abruptly with the 1973 oil crisis. Inflation remained stubbornly high, and would soon rise to double digits despite stagnating growth, a phenomenon that came to be known as stagflation.
Mar 1975–
Jan 1980		58+3.6%+4.3%Following the steep recession between 1973 and 1975, an expansion occurred through the remainder of the decade. Inflation remained high during this period and energy prices were a particular sore point. The expansion ended with a second energy crisis, which saw oil prices reach an all-time peak that would not be surpassed in real terms until 2008. This expansion was followed by a short recession, triggered in part by the Federal Reserve's decision to combat rising prices by raising interest rates.
Jul 1980–
Jul 1981		12+2.0%+4.4%This short period of growth saw unemployment remain relatively high, particularly among manufacturing and construction workers, never dropping below 7.2%. Rebounding inflation after an initial decline spurred to Fed to continue monetary tightening, which led to another recession after only a year. The period from 1980 to 1982 is sometimes referred to as a double-dip recession.
Dec 1982–
July 1990		92+2.8%+4.3%Inflation was under control by the mid-1980s. Influenced by low and stable oil prices in combination with a steep rise in private investment and rising incomes, the economy entered what was at the time the second longest peacetime economic expansion in U.S. history. [4] [5]
Mar 1991–
Mar 2001		120+2.0%+3.6%Following a mild recession in the early 1990s, the U.S. entered the second-longest period of economic expansion in its history. [1] Job growth remained weak at first, hampered by mass layoffs in defense-related industries following the end of the Cold War. [6] Construction hiring was also weak, and real estate values subdued, following a period of overbuilding in the 1980s. [7] Economic growth solidified by 1993, and home prices rebounded starting in 1995. The latter half of the period saw the rise of the dot-com bubble, as personal computers and internet access became widely available. Eager to profit from these new technologies and fueled by low interest rates and a 1997 tax cut on capital gains, investors drove stock valuations to record highs. In a move to protect the broader economy from the over-inflated stock market, the Fed began raising interest rates in 1999, culminating in a market crash and a string of high-profile bankruptcies beginning the following year.
Nov 2001–
Dec 2007		73+0.9%+2.8% Another mild recession occurred in 2001, followed by moderate expansion. Persistently high unemployment and slow wage growth sparked complaints of a "jobless recovery", [8] though unemployment eventually fell below 5% by 2005. Meanwhile, the rise in home prices that began in the mid-1990s grew into a real estate bubble. Home construction boomed, while low interest rates and loosened lending standards allowed homeowners to easily withdraw equity, boosting consumer spending and job growth. Though the housing market entered a correction in early 2006, the effects on economic growth were initially muted. However, mortgage defaults spiked starting in 2007 and the banking industry began to destabilize, leading to the subprime mortgage crisis. A deep recession began at the end of that year, bringing an end to the Great Moderation, a period of stable economic expansion and employment growth that began in the early 1980s.
June 2009–
Feb 2020		128+1.1% [9] +2.3% [9] The effects of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 continued to be felt for years, with the economy described as a "malaise" as late as 2011. [10] Employment growth remained historically low, and unemployment would not return to pre-recession levels until 2016. [11] Long-term unemployment rose to a record high [12] while labor force participation fell off sharply as many of the unemployed gave up looking for work. [13] In an effort to spur economic growth, the Federal Reserve engaged in three rounds of quantitative easing, while the federal funds rate was kept near zero for an unprecedented seven years. [14] However, credit remained difficult to obtain for some time, as lending institutions used the newly created cash to shore up their balance sheets. [15] What growth occurred was unevenly distributed; roughly half of GDP growth from 2009 to 2015 went to the top 1% of households. [16] Unlike every previous post-war expansion, GDP growth remained under 3% for every calendar year. [17] Global growth would peak in 2017, resulting in a major synchronized slowdown that started in 2018. The following year, the unemployment rate fell below 3.5% and a major spike in the repo market occurred, prompting fears of a recession. The expansion would end in March 2020 due to the novel coronavirus which caused a pandemic that resulted in the stock market crash. [18]
April 2020- OngoingTBDTBDTBDThe Coronavirus recession proved to be the shortest recession in US history but had the largest GDP decline since the 1945 recession. [19]

See also

Related Research Articles

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Bureau of Economic Research</span> American private nonprofit research organization

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community." The NBER is known for proposing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Early 2000s recession</span> Recession that occurred in the early 2000s

The early 2000s recession was a decline in economic activity which mainly occurred in developed countries. The recession affected the European Union during 2000 and 2001 and the United States from March to November 2001. The UK, Canada and Australia avoided the recession, while Russia, a nation that did not experience prosperity during the 1990s, began to recover from it. Japan's 1990s recession continued.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Early 1980s recession</span> Global economic recession

The early 1980s recession was a severe economic recession that affected much of the world between approximately the start of 1980 and 1982. It is widely considered to have been the most severe recession since World War II until the 2007–2008 financial crisis.

Growth Recession is a term in economics that refers to a situation where economic growth is slow, but not low enough to be a technical recession, yet unemployment still increases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Great Moderation</span> Phenomenon in economies of developed nations since the mid-1980s

The Great Moderation is a period in the United States of America starting from the mid-1980s until at least 2007 characterized by the reduction in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations in developed nations compared with the decades before. It is believed to be caused by institutional and structural changes, particularly in central bank policies, in the second half of the twentieth century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Great Recession</span> Global economic decline from 2007 to 2009

The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline observed in national economies globally, i.e. a recession, that occurred in the late 2000s. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country. At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression. One result was a serious disruption of normal international relations.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Depression of 1920–1921</span> Sharp deflationary recession

The Depression of 1920–1921 was a sharp deflationary recession in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries, beginning 14 months after the end of World War I. It lasted from January 1920 to July 1921. The extent of the deflation was not only large, but large relative to the accompanying decline in real product.

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) is a database maintained by the Research division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that has more than 816,000 economic time series from various sources. They cover banking, business/fiscal, consumer price indexes, employment and population, exchange rates, gross domestic product, interest rates, monetary aggregates, producer price indexes, reserves and monetary base, U.S. trade and international transactions, and U.S. financial data. The time series are compiled by the Federal Reserve and many are collected from government agencies such as the U.S. Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1973–1975 recession</span> Period of economic stagnation in the Western world

The 1973–1975 recession or 1970s recession was a period of economic stagnation in much of the Western world during the 1970s, putting an end to the overall post–World War II economic expansion. It differed from many previous recessions by involving stagflation, in which high unemployment and high inflation existed simultaneously.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recession of 1969–1970</span> Economic downturn in the United States

The recession of 1969–1970 was a relatively mild recession in the United States. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession lasted for 11 months, beginning in December 1969 and ending in November 1970. It followed an economic slump that began in 1968. It ended the third longest economic expansion in U.S. history, which had begun in February 1953 in the aftermath of the recession of 1960–1961.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recession of 1960–1961</span> Economic downturn in the United States

The recession of 1960–1961 was a recession in the United States. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession lasted for 10 months, beginning in April 1960 and ending in February 1961. The recession preceded the third-longest economic expansion in U.S. history, from February 1961 until the beginning of the recession of 1969–1970 in December 1968.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Recession of 1949</span> Economic downturn in the United States

The recession of 1949 was a downturn in the United States lasting for 11 months. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession began in November 1948 and lasted until October 1949.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) based in New York City, is an independent institute formed in 1996 by Geoffrey H. Moore, Anirvan Banerji, and Lakshman Achuthan. It provides economic modeling, financial databases, economic forecasting, and market cycles services to investment managers, business executives, and government policymakers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Unemployment in the United States</span> Explanation of unemployment in the United States, presently and historically

Unemployment in the United States discusses the causes and measures of U.S. unemployment and strategies for reducing it. Job creation and unemployment are affected by factors such as economic conditions, global competition, education, automation, and demographics. These factors can affect the number of workers, the duration of unemployment, and wage levels.

In the United States, the Great Recession was a severe financial crisis combined with a deep recession. While the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, it took many years for the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels of employment and output. This slow recovery was due in part to households and financial institutions paying off debts accumulated in the years preceding the crisis along with restrained government spending following initial stimulus efforts. It followed the bursting of the housing bubble, the housing market correction and subprime mortgage crisis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Early 1990s recession in the United States</span>

The United States entered a recession in 1990, which lasted 8 months through March 1991. Although the recession was mild relative to other post-war recessions, it was characterized by a sluggish employment recovery, most commonly referred to as a jobless recovery. Unemployment continued to rise through June 1992, even though a positive economic growth rate had returned the previous year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Early 1980s recession in the United States</span> Economic recession

The United States entered recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. Although recovery took hold, the unemployment rate remained unchanged and even grew through the start of a second recession in July 1981. The downturn ended 16 months later, in November 1982. The economy entered a strong recovery and experienced a lengthy expansion through 1990.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sahm rule</span> Method of determining when the economy has entered a recession

In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It is named after economist Claudia Sahm, formerly of the Federal Reserve and Council of Economic Advisors.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 Hall, Robert (October 21, 2003). "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure". National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved February 29, 2008.
  2. ↑ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (6 April 2018). "All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls [PAYEMS]". FRED. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved 1 Jan 2019.
  3. ↑ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (28 March 2018). "Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1]". FRED. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved 1 Jan 2019.
  4. ↑ Gardner, Jennifer M. (1994). "The 1990-1991 Recession: How Bad was the Labor Market?" (PDF). Monthly Labor Review. 117 (6). Bureau of Labor Statistics: 3–11. Retrieved 6 April 2011.
  5. ↑ Carl E. Walsh (1993). "What Caused the 1990–1991 Recession" (PDF). Economic Review (2). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. ↑ Hardone, Thomas; Herz, Diane; Mellor, Earl; Hipple, Steven (1993). "1992: Job Market in the Doldrums" (PDF). Monthly Labor Review. 116 (2). Bureau of Labor Statistics: 3–14. PMID   10125635 . Retrieved 6 April 2011.
  7. ↑ Gardner, Jennifer M.; Hipple, Steven; Nardone, Thomas (1994). "The Labor Market Improves in 1993" (PDF). Monthly Labor Review. 117 (2). Bureau of Labor Statistics: 3–13. PMID   10138081 . Retrieved 14 June 2011.
  8. ↑ Bernstein, Jared (19 January 2005). "2004: Jobless recovery begets wageless recovery". Snapshot. Economic Policy Institute. Retrieved 12 April 2018.
  9. 1 2 through July 2019
  10. ↑ Appelbaum, Binyamin (April 24, 2011). "Stimulus by Fed Is Disappointing, Economists Say". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 2, 2011. Retrieved April 24, 2011. the disappointing results [of the actions of the Federal Reserve] show the limits of the central bank's ability to lift the nation from its economic malaise.
  11. ↑ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (6 April 2018). "Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE]". FRED. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved 13 April 2018.
  12. ↑ Jon Talton (4 September 2012). "State of the labor force under pressure this holiday". The Seattle Times. Retrieved 4 September 2012.
  13. ↑ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (6 April 2018). "Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART]". FRED. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved 13 April 2018.
  14. ↑ Lockhart, Dennis (August 10, 2015). "A Story of Economic Progress". Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  15. ↑ Bernanke, Ben S. (20 November 2012). The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy (Speech). The Economic Club of New York. New York. Retrieved 13 April 2018.
  16. ↑ Saez, Emmanuel (30 June 2016), Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Updated with 2015 preliminary estimates) (PDF), Berkeley, CA: University of California, Department of Economics, retrieved 13 April 2018
  17. ↑ "Real Gross Domestic Product". January 1930.
  18. ↑ "Opening Remarks at a Press Briefing by Kristalina Georgieva following a Conference Call of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC)".
  19. ↑ Jon Talton (19 July 2021). "State of the labor force under pressure this holiday". The Hill. Retrieved 19 July 2021.
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