Opinion polling for the 2016 Philippine presidential election

Last updated

Opinion polling, locally known as surveys, in the 2016 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other pollsters. The last electoral votes were cast on Monday, May 9, 2016.

Contents

As the positions of president and vice president are elected separately, pollsters usually have separate surveys for each position.

The figure representing the polling numbers for the candidate that topped each poll is emboldened unless two or more candidates tied, when they are all emboldened. Those figures which are within the margin of error are italicized.

Calendar

Polling for president

Graphical summary

From the start of the campaign period to Election Day

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Roxas
LP 		Santiago
PRP 		RefusedDon't knowUndecided / None
Election results May 9, 201644,979,151N/A12.7321.3139.0223.453.42N/A
SWS [1] Exit poll45,123N/A13.519.239.324.03.1N/A
D' Strafford [2] May 1–5, 20164,000±1.2%16.622.525.430.53–0.31.7
SWS [3] May 1–3, 20164,500±1.0%132233202–64
Argus [4] Apr 28–30, 20166,000±1.9%192731194–––
Standard [5] Apr 27-May 1, 20163,000±1.8%152532222––4
Antonio Trillanes' exposé on Rodrigo Duterte's alleged multimillion peso bank accounts and properties (April 27).
Pulse Asia [6] Apr 26–29, 20164,000±1.5%172133222––5
D' Strafford [7] Apr 25–29, 20164,500±1.2%172425283––1
The Center [8] Apr 23–29, 20161,800±2.5%232529212–––
Third presidential debate in Dagupan (April 24).
Pulse Asia [9] Apr 19–24, 20164,000±1.5%182233202––5
SWS [10] Apr 18–20, 20161,800±2%142433192–53
Rodrigo Duterte makes a joke about a murdered and raped Australian kidnap victim in a campaign rally (April 17).
Pulse Asia [11] Apr 16–20, 20161,800±2.3%1623351720.3–5
D' Strafford [12] Apr 13–18, 20162,800±1.9%192620264––4
Pulse Asia [13] Apr 12–17, 20164,000±1.5%192234182134
The Center [14] Apr 11–16, 20161,800±2.5%23.2526.2526.7520.752––1
The Supreme Court declares their vote on Grace Poe's natural-born status and 10-year residency is final and executory, and she is eligible to the presidency (April 9).
Pulse Asia [15] Apr 5–10, 20164,000±1.5%202532181121
The Center [16] Apr 1–7, 20161,800±2.5%222529192––2.3
Pulse Asia [17] Mar 29–Apr 3, 20164,000±1.5%202530192––4
MBC–DZRH [18] Apr 2, 20167,490±1.13%15.328.23615.23.5––1.8
SWS [19] Mar 30–Apr 2, 20161,500±3%202327183–––
Standard [20] Mar 26–Apr 1, 20163,000±1.8%182730212––2
Second presidential debate in Cebu City (March 20).
Pulse Asia [21] Mar 15–20, 20164,000±1.5%232824192––4
Pulse Asia [22] Mar 8–13, 20164,000±1.5%222625203––5
The Supreme Court affirms Grace Poe's natural-born status and declares she is qualified to run (March 8).
SWS [23] Mar 4–7, 20161,800±2%242721224––1
Pulse Asia [24] Mar 1–6, 20162,600±1.9%212824203––6
Standard [25] Feb 24–Mar 1, 20163,000±1.8%232624222––4
Pulse Asia [26] Feb 23–27, 20162,600±1.9%222523203–––
Pulse Asia [27] Feb 16–27, 20165,200±1.4%242622193222
First presidential debate in Cagayan de Oro (February 21).
Pulse Asia [28] Feb 15–20, 20161,800±2%252621213––4
MBC–DZRH [29] [30] Feb 13, 20167,572±1.13%23.22726.4193.9––2.3

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE Binay
UNA 		Poe
Ind 		Duterte
PDP-Laban 		Roxas
LP 		Santiago
PRP 		David
AK 		Sabio
Ind 		Señeres
PMM 		Syjuco
Ind 		OthersRefusedDon't knowNone
2016
SWS [31] Feb 5-7, 20161,200±3%292424184–––––––2
Standard [32] Jan 27-Feb 4, 20163,000±1.8%222920222–––––––4
Pulse Asia [33] Jan 24–28, 20161,200±3%233020204––––0.10.411
SWS [34] Jan 8–10, 20161,800±2%312420213–00.1–02
RMN [35] Jan 5-14, 20163,578±2.5%21.4928.5927.8615.125.14–––––––1.79
2015
SWS [36] Dec 12–14, 20151,200±3%2626202240.10.04000.11
Standard [37] Dec 4–12, 20151,800±2%232819223––––0.1––4
Pulse Asia [38] Dec 4–11, 20151,500±2.6%332123214–0.100–0.311
MBC–DZRH [39] Nov 27, 20157,436±1.14%18.6325.1430.2514.926.220.210.080.310.102.23––1.92
RMN [40] Oct 25-Nov 5, 20153,604±2.5%22.9537.15–19.6411.74–––––––8.52

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015

Single-choice surveys

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE
Binay
UNA
OthersRefusedDon't knowNone
2015
Pulse Asia [41] Sep 8–15, 20152,400±2%1926162035–1–––26––
0.6%
Bello (Ind): 0.1%
Others: 0.5%
3
SWS [42] Sep 2–5, 20151,200±3%2426112012340.84––80.8–8
3%
Villar (NP): 1%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None:2%
Pulse Asia [43] Aug 27–Sep 3, 20151,200±3%2127151845–15––1––––
RMN [44] Aug 11–18, 20154,718±2.5%26.1624.8412.4218.144.336–1.90.06––1.83––––
Pulse Asia [45] May 30–Jun 5, 20151,200±3%22301510610–2–––2–––Others: 1%10.41
Laylo [46] May 8–18, 20151,500±2.6%2824108810433––1––––
IBON [47] [48] May 13–23, 20151,496±3%13.813.77.63.8–––––––––––
15.0%
B. Aquino (LP) 4.2%
Others: 10.8%
–46.1
Pulse Asia [49] Mar 1–7, 20151,200±3%29141249124361–1–––
3%
Trillanes (Ind): 2%
Others: 1%
10.12
2014
Pulse Asia [50] Nov 14–20, 20141,200±3%2618–61210734123–11
3.4%
Belmonte (LP): 0.4%
Others: 3%
0.30.50.2
Pulse Asia [51] Sep 8–15, 20141,200±3%3110–13111051420.41–1–
4%
Castro (Ind): 3%
Robredo (LP): 1%
–
Pulse Asia [52] Jun 24–Jul 6, 20141,200±3%4112–77975511––2–Others: 2%10.51
Pulse Asia [53] Mar 19–26, 20141,200±3%4015–610–945––2–3–
5%
K. Aquino (Ind): 4%
Others: 1%
0.030.20.4

Three-choice surveys

These surveys asked participants to rank up to three candidates.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoEOthersDon't know/refusedNone
SWS [54] Sep 2–5, 20151,200±3%35473916236151––1–––––52
SWS [55] Jun 5–8, 20151,200±3%344221204742371–1––1–195
SWS [56] Mar 20–23, 20151,200±3%3631151511118471313111––312
SWS [57] Nov 27–Dec 1, 20141,800±2%3721195109933255211115158

Polling for vice president

Graphical summary

From the start of the campaign period to Election Day

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE Escudero
Ind 		Marcos
Ind 		Cayetano
Ind 		Robredo
LP 		Honasan
UNA 		Trillanes
Ind 		RefusedDon't knowUndecided / None
Election results May 9, 201644,066,884N/A12.0134.4714.3835.111.922.11N/A
SWS [1] Exit poll45,123N/A11.034.614.932.82.52.1N/A
D' Strafford [2] May 1–5, 20164,000±1.2%1825173513––1
SWS [3] May 1–3, 20164,500±1.0%1529132833––9
Standard [5] Apr 27-May 1, 20163,000±1.8%2030122933––3
Argus [4] Apr 28–30, 20166,000±1.9%2233132444–––
D' Strafford [7] Apr 25–29, 20164,500±1.2%1828163421––1
Pulse Asia [6] Apr 26–29, 20164,000±1.5%1828153032––4
The Center [8] Apr 23–29, 20161,800±2.5%1831152553––3
Pulse Asia [9] Apr 19–24, 20164,000±1.5%1831152623––5
SWS [10] Apr 18–20, 20161,800±2%1825162625–35
Second vice presidential debate in Quezon City (April 17).
Pulse Asia [11] Apr 16–20, 20161,800±2.3%18291624430.7–7
D' Strafford [12] Apr 13–18, 20162,800±1.9%2325173212–––
Pulse Asia [13] Apr 12–17, 20164,000±1.5%2029162343131
The Center [14] Apr 11–16, 20161,800±2.5%2329152543––1
First vice presidential debate in Manila (April 10).
Pulse Asia [15] Apr 5–10, 20164,000±1.5%2327172143121
The Center [16] Apr 1–7, 20161,800±2.5%22.528.51623.54.253.75––1.75
Pulse Asia [17] Mar 29–Apr 3, 20164,000±1.5%2128152245––5
MBC– DZRH [18] Apr 2, 20167,490±1.13%22.629.818.417.84.35.5––1.6
SWS [19] Mar 30–Apr 2, 20161,500±3%2126131955–––
Standard [20] Mar 26–Apr 1, 20163,000±1.8%2825152135––4
Pulse Asia [21] Mar 15-20, 20164,000±1.5%2525142154––5
Pulse Asia [22] Mar 8-13, 20164,000±1.5%2425132056––6
SWS [23] Mar 4-7, 20161,800±2%2826112456––2
Pulse Asia [24] Mar 1-6, 20162,600±1.9%2522142156––6
Standard [25] Feb 24-Mar 1, 20163,000±1.8%3024112047––5
Pulse Asia [26] Feb 23-27, 20162,600±1.9%2526122164–––
Pulse Asia [27] Feb 16-27, 20165,200±1.4%2626131865222
MBC– DZRH [29] [30] Feb 13, 20167,572±1.13%26.825.114.818.85.56.2––2.7
Pulse Asia [28] Feb 15-20, 20161,800±2%2926121946––3

From the end of candidacy filing to the start of the campaign period

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoE Escudero
Ind 		Marcos
NP–Ind 		Cayetano
NP–Ind 		Robredo
LP 		Honasan
UNA 		Trillanes
NP–Ind 		Alba
AK 		OthersRefusedDon't knowNone
2016
SWS [31] Feb 5-7, 20161,200±3%2626161965––––2
Standard [32] Jan 27-Feb 4, 20163,000±1.8%3125152054–––––
Pulse Asia [33] Jan 24–28, 20161,200±3%3323141854––0.312
SWS [34] Jan 8–10, 20161,800±2%282514178312.32
RMN [35] Jan 5-14, 20163,578±2.5%32.1421.6017.3614.066.326.01––––2.52
2015
SWS [36] Dec 12–14, 20151,200±3%30191714850.80.641
Standard [37] Dec 4–12, 20151,800±2%3319181967––––5
Pulse Asia [38] Dec 4–11, 20151,500±2.6%29231811940.30.340.111
MBC– DZRH [39] Nov 27, 20157,436±1.14%28.4924.6218.2512.536.117.75––––2.25
RMN [40] Oct 25-Nov 5, 20153,604±2.5%38.1018.7011.9013.655.945.38––––6.33

Until candidacy filing ended on 16 October 2015

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeMoEOthersRefusedDon't knowNone
2015
Pulse Asia [41] Sep 8–15, 20152,400±2%24239–13––––45–3–54
9.1%
B. Aquino III (LP): 6%
Pangilinan (LP): 2%
Henares (Ind): 0.1%
Others: 1%
3
SWS [42] Sep 2–5, 20151,200±3%272059724––2735–3–44
3.9%
Atienza (Buhay): 0.9%
Others/Refused/Don't know/None: 3%
Pulse Asia [43] Aug 27–Sep 3, 20151,200±3%26257–7––––––––2––––
RMN [44] Aug 11–18, 20154,718±2.5%36.0121.36––11.82––––––––––––
SWS [58] Jun 5–8, 20151,200±3%21723172––331.40.7–1211.1
1.2%
Moreno (PMP): 0.7%
Pacquiao (UNA): 0.5%
228
Pulse Asia [45] May 30–Jun 5, 20151,200±3%41151299–––––6––1––5110.23
IBON [47] [48] May 13–23, 20151,496±3%15.92.5–––6.81.9–––––––5.1––7.81360
Laylo [46] May 8–18, 20151,500±2.6%231611115––––77–––56–
SWS [59] Mar 20–23, 20151,200±3%26634375–0.631.61.7––120.635––7
Pulse Asia [49] Mar 1–7, 20151,200±3%2916131111––34–––20.4––610.212
2014
Pulse Asia [50] Nov 14–20, 20141,200±3%332013–8––65–––31––8
1.3%
Gatchalian (NPC): 0.3%
Others: 1%
–12
Pulse Asia [51] Sep 8–15, 20141,200±3%31199–6––55–––33–67–
Pulse Asia [52] Jun 24–Jul 6, 20141,200±3%262214–8––55–––41–46Others: 1%111
Pulse Asia [53] Mar 19–26, 20141,200±3%24206–5–––4–5–31857
10.3%
K. Aquino (Ind): 5%
Bam Aquino (LP): 3%
JV Ejercito (UNA): 2%
Others: 0.3%
0.20.3–

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