1998 Philippine presidential election

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1998 Philippine presidential election
Flag of the Philippines.svg
←  1992 May 11, 1998 2004  →
Turnout86.5% (Increase2.svg11.0pp)
 
President Joseph "Erap" Ejercito Estrada, Argentine President Menem (cropped) (cropped2).jpg
President Rodrigo Duterte with former House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. and Gina de Venecia.jpg
Candidate Joseph Estrada Jose de Venecia Jr.
Party LAMMP Lakas
Running mate Edgardo Angara Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
Popular vote10,722,2954,268,483
Percentage39.86%15.87%
 
Raul Sagarbarria Roco.jpg
Candidate Raul Roco Lito Osmeña
Party Aksyon PROMDI
Running mate Irene Santiago Ismael Sueno
Popular vote3,720,2123,347,631
Percentage13.38%12.44%
1998PhilippinePresidentialElection.png
Presidential election results per province.
President before election

Fidel V. Ramos
Lakas

Elected President

Joseph Estrada
LAMMP

1998 Philippine vice presidential election
Flag of the Philippines.svg
←  1992 May 11, 1998 2004  →
  Gloria Pentagon.jpg Edgardo Angara picture.jpg
Candidate Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Edgardo Angara
Party Lakas LAMMP
Popular vote12,667,2525,652,068
Percentage49.56%22.11%
  No avatar.png Sergio Osmena III at the Senate (Cropped).jpg
Candidate Oscar Orbos Serge Osmeña
Party Reporma Liberal
Popular vote3,321,7792,351,462
Percentage13.00%9.20%
1998PhilippineVicePresidentialElection.png
Map showing the official results taken from provincial and city certificates of canvass. The inset shows Metro Manila.
Vice President before election

Joseph Estrada
LAMMP

Elected Vice President

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
Lakas

The 1998 Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections were held on May 11, 1998. In the presidential election, Vice President Joseph Estrada won a six-year term as President by a landslide victory. In the vice-presidential race, Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a six-year term as Vice President, also by a landslide victory. This was the third election where both the president and vice president came from different parties.

Contents

Background

At the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians have been jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas-NUCD-UMDP party. This included Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.

The Lakas nominee is widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been leading candidate in the various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he will not run for president, stating that he intends to retire when he reaches the age of 60 in 1998, [1] but he later recanted this decision.

Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who considered herself to have been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.

Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was also seen to run for the presidency. She was banking on the support of loyalists of deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.

Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially sought to run for president, launching her campaign on July 6, 1997, in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate, [2] [3] but she eventually decided to back out and run for Governor of Pangasinan instead. [4]

Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also seen to be a strong contender to the presidency, founding the Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino party, with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen to be her vice presidential running mate.

Senator Raul Roco, who had a noteworthy Senate career up to this point, had the strong backing of the youth via his Aksyon Demokratiko party.

The Lakas convention nominated de Venecia, Ramos handpicked successor. This led to de Villa and Osmeña bolting from Lakas and setting up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his running mate.

The Liberal Party nominated Manila mayor Alfredo Lim. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP), Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral pact and formed the Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of the LDP as his running mate.

Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the election. Estrada had widened his lead among other candidates at this point.

Candidates

Presidential candidatePartyVice presidential candidateParty
Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. Lakas-NUCD-UMDP Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas-NUCD-UMDP
Defense Secretary Renato de Villa Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma Pangasinan Governor Oscar Orbos Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago People's Reform Party Senator Francisco Tatad People's Reform Party
Santiago DumlaoKilusan para sa Pambansang PagpapanibagoReynaldo PachecoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago
Vice President Joseph Estrada Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino Senator Edgardo Angara Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino
Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim Liberal Party Senator Serge Osmeña Liberal Party
MTRCB Chairperson Manuel Morato Partido Bansang MarangalHouse Secretary-General Camilo Sabio Partido Bansang Marangal
Cebu Governor Emilio Osmeña Probinsya Muna Development Initiative South Cotabato Governor Ismael Sueno Probinsya Muna Development Initiative
Senator Juan Ponce Enrile Independentnone
Senator Raul Roco Aksyon Demokratiko Irene Santiago Aksyon Demokratiko

Lakas nomination

There are three candidates who seek the nomination of Lakas–NUCD, they are House Speaker Jose De Venecia, Defense Secretary Renato "Rene" de Villa, and Bulacan Governor Roberto "Obet" Pagdanganan. De Villa was confident to be selected by the party, as like President Fidel Ramos, he is also a former constabulary general. But in a party meeting, the party selected de Venecia as their nominee for president. De Villa bolted to form Partido Reporma. [5]

Opinion polling

Opinion polling, commonly known as "surveys" in the Philippines were administered primarily by Social Weather Stations in 1998.

The tables below graph the last three surveys conducted.

For president

1998 Philippine Presidential Election Opinion Polls.jpg
PollsterFieldwork dateSample sizeMargin of error de Venecia de Villa Defensor Santiago Dumlao Estrada Lim Marcos Morato Osmeña Ponce Enrile Roco Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16 [6] 1,500±3%12540.3

30

1320.2132109
Mar 16–21 [7] 1,500±3%14570.4

28

142192117
Feb 21–27 [8] 1,500±3%12650.1

28

142.30.6130.9910

For vice president

2004 Vice Presidential Election Polls.png


PollsterFieldwork dateSample sizeMargin of error Angara Macapagal Arroyo Orbos Osmeña Pacheco Sabio Santiago Sueño Tatad Undecided
SWS Apr 8–16 [6] 1,500±3%16

45

8140.10.30.9329
Mar 16–21 [7] 1,500±3%12

47

6180.20.51247
Feb 21–27 [8] 1,500±3%13

44

5140.10.222210

Results

The 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.

While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.

In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.

For president

Estrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.

De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Siquijor, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South.

Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as De Villa of Batangas, Enrile of Cagayan, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as the neighboring province of Guimaras. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila.

CandidatePartyVotes%
Joseph Estrada Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino 10,722,29539.86
Jose de Venecia Jr. Lakas–NUCD–UMDP 4,268,48315.87
Raul Roco Aksyon Demokratiko 3,720,21213.83
Lito Osmeña PROMDI 3,347,63112.44
Alfredo Lim Liberal Party 2,344,3628.71
Renato de Villa Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa 1,308,3524.86
Miriam Defensor Santiago People's Reform Party 797,2062.96
Juan Ponce Enrile Independent343,1391.28
Santiago DumlaoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago32,2120.12
Manuel Morato Partido Bansang Marangal18,6440.07
Total26,902,536100.00
Valid votes26,902,53691.86
Invalid/blank votes [a] 2,383,2398.14
Total votes29,285,775100.00
Registered voters/turnout33,873,66586.46
Source: Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, Hasall and Santos [9]
  1. ↑ Includes 232,714 votes for Imelda Marcos (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) who withdrew after the ballots were printed.
Popular vote
Estrada
 
39.86%
De Venecia
 
15.87%
Roco
 
13.83%
Osmeña
 
12.44%
Lim
 
8.71%
De Villa
 
4.86%
Others
 
4.43%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts) [10]
CandidatePartyResults
Votes %Diff*
Joseph Estrada LAMMP 8,239,82339.47%−0.39%
Jose de Venecia Lakas 3,247,06715.55%−0.32%
Raul Roco Aksyon 2,923,84214.00%0.17%
Emilio Osmeña PROMDI 2,454,43211.76%−0.68%
Alfredo Lim Liberal 1,815,6648.70%−0.01%
Renato de Villa Reporma 1,028,8544.93%0.07%
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 584,6332.80%−0.16%
Juan Ponce Enrile Independent 297,8011.43%0.15%
Imelda Marcos (withdrew) KBL 232,7141.11%N/A
Santiago DumlaoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago29,3270.14%0.02%
Manuel Morato Partido Bansang Marangal23,2080.07%0.04%
Votes20,877,365100.00%—

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

1998 presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroupEstradade VeneciaRocoOsmeñaOther % of
total vote
Total vote3916131220100
NCR3311284249
CAR4724120175
Region I - Ilocos33612046
Region II - Cagayan441341385
Region III - Central Luzon5015171177
Region IV - Southern Tagalog45101213212
Region V - Bicol14875035
Region VI - Western Visayas401239369
Region VII - Central Visayas2012552117
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas4818123104
Region IX - Western Mindanao3919420186
Region X - Northern Mindanao3320331135
Region XI - Southern Mindanao4412330118
Region XII - Central Mindanao5218315126
ARMM63251296

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%) [11]

For vice-president

Arroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.

Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.

CandidatePartyVotes%
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas–NUCD–UMDP 12,667,25249.56
Edgardo Angara Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino 5,652,06822.11
Oscar Orbos Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa 3,321,77913.00
Serge Osmeña Liberal Party 2,351,4629.20
Francisco Tatad Grand Alliance for Democracy 745,3892.92
Ismael Sueno PROMDI 537,6772.10
Irene Santiago Aksyon Demokratiko 240,2100.94
Camilo Sabio Partido Bansang Marangal22,0100.09
Reynaldo PachecoKilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago21,4220.08
Total25,559,269100.00
Valid votes25,559,26987.28
Invalid/blank votes3,726,50612.72
Total votes29,285,775100.00
Registered voters/turnout33,873,66586.46
Popular vote
Arroyo
 
49.56%
Angara
 
22.11%
Orbos
 
13.00%
Osmeña
 
9.20%
Others
 
6.13%

NAMFREL quick count

Take note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official congressional canvass.

NAMFREL quick count result (79.25% of precincts) [10]
CandidatePartyResults
Votes %Diff*
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo Lakas 9,624,39748.85%−0.71%
Edgardo Angara LDP 4,380,99122.24%0.13
Oscar Orbos Reporma 2,651,18413.46%0.46
Sergio Osmeña III Liberal 1,183,9989.21%0.01
Francisco Tatad PRP/Gabay Bayan582,5482.96%0.05
Ismael Sueno PROMDI 409,9662.08%−0.02
Irene Santiago Aksyon 196,3861.00%0.07
Reynaldo Pacheco Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago23,1070.12%0.04
Camilo Sabio Partido Bansang Marangal19,5550.10%0.01
Votes19,702,132100.00%—

*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.

Voter demographics

1998 vice presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroupArroyoAngaraOrbosOsmeñaOther % of
total vote
Total vote502112107100
NCR3221331229
CAR601917315
Region I - Ilocos531530116
Region II - Cagayan622610205
Region III - Central Luzon661611617
Region IV - Southern Tagalog4529177212
Region V - Bicol481445295
Region VI - Western Visayas462841579
Region VII - Central Visayas4517225117
Region VIII - Eastern Visayas671811314
Region IX - Western Mindanao591851536
Region X - Northern Mindanao582131625
Region XI - Southern Mindanao5020513128
Region XII - Central Mindanao562139116
ARMM58306426

Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%) [12]

See also

Notes

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    References

    1. ↑ Maragay, Fel V. (August 25, 1992). "Would'ya believe: Erap's not running in '98". Manila Standard . Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 3. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
    2. ↑ Macaspac, Joem N. (July 6, 1997). "Letty launches presidential candidacy today". Manila Standard . Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
    3. ↑ Maragay, Fel V. (July 7, 1997). "Shahani declares bid for presidency". Manila Standard . Kamahalan Publishing Corp. p. 1. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
    4. ↑ Azarcon-dela Cruz, Pennie (March 26, 2017). "Leticia Ramos-Shahani: The accidental politician". Inquirer News . INQUIRER.net. Retrieved June 15, 2023. ...lost her bid for the governor's post in Pangasinan in 1998.
    5. ↑ Diaz, Jess (June 12, 2001). "Roco, De Villa back JDV opponents". Philstar.com. Retrieved 2024-10-05.
    6. 1 2 "ERAP'S LEAD STRENGTHENS AS LIM, OSMEÃ'A, JDV TIE FOR 2ND". SWS.org.ph. 1998-04-22.
    7. 1 2 "ERAP LEADS LIM AND JDV BY 28-14; GLORIA HITS 47". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-23.
    8. 1 2 "ERAP'S LEAD UNCHANGED; GLORIA'S LEAD WIDENS". SWS.org.ph. 1998-03-05.
    9. ↑ Dieter Nohlen; Florian Grotz; Christof Hartmann; Graham Hassall; Soliman M. Santos.
      Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook: Volume II: South East Asia, East Asia, and the South Pacific      .
    10. 1 2 "Report on the Philippine General Elections 1998" (PDF). NAMFREL.com.ph. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 30, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2011.
    11. ↑ "COMPARING SWS EXIT POLL RESULTS WITH NAMFREL COUNT BY REGION". Archived from the original on March 4, 2016.
    12. ↑ "VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES FOR THE MAY 11, 1998 ELECTIONS: SWS Day-of-Election 'Exit Poll'". Archived from the original on September 24, 2015.
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