2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes

2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh
Part of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Military situation in Nagorno-Karabakh on 20 September 2023   Areas of internationally recognised Armenian territory occupied by Azerbaijan (Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis)   Areas captured by Azerbaijan during the offensive   Areas in Nagorno-Karabakh proper remaining under the control of Artsakh For a more detailed map, see the detailed map
Date 19–20 September 2023 (2023-09-19 – 2023-09-20) (1 day) Location Nagorno-Karabakh Result Azerbaijani victory, [1] ceasefire agreement Disbandment of the Artsakh Defence Army [2] Negotiations started between Nagorno-Karabakh representatives and Azerbaijan on 21 September 2023 [3] Start of the 2023 Armenian protests Exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh Territorial changes Per Azerbaijan, 90 combat positions captured [4] (as of 20 September)
Belligerents
Azerbaijan	Artsakh
Commanders and leaders
Ilham Aliyev	Samvel Shahramanyan
Units involved
Azerbaijani Land Forces Commando Brigades   Azerbaijani Air Force Ministry of Internal Affairs Internal Troops Special Forces	Artsakh Defence Army
Casualties and losses
192 servicemen killed [5] 511 servicemen wounded [5]	190+ servicemen killed [6] 360+ servicemen wounded [6]
10 Armenian and 1 Azerbaijani civilian killed 40 Armenian and 1 Azerbaijani civilian injured [lower-alpha 1] 5 Russian peacekeepers killed by Azerbaijan [9] 50,000 ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh as of 27 September 2023 [10]

Between 19 and 20 September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against the self-declared breakaway state of Artsakh, a move seen as a violation of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement. ^{[11] [12]} The offensive took place in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, but populated by Armenians. ^{[13] [14]} The attacks occurred in the midst of an escalating crisis caused by Azerbaijan blockading the Republic of Artsakh, which has resulted in significant scarcities of essential supplies such as food, medicine, and other goods in the affected region. ^[15]

One day after the offensive started, on 20 September, a ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh was reached at the mediation of the Russian peacekeeping command in Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[16] Azerbaijan held a meeting with representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians on 21 September in Yevlakh, to be followed by another meeting in October. ^{[17] [18]} Ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan were nonetheless reported by both Artsakhi residents and officials. ^{[19] [20]}

Human rights organizations and experts in genocide prevention issued multiple alerts, stating that the indigenous Armenian population was at risk or actively being subjected to ethnic cleansing and genocide. Luis Moreno Ocampo, a former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, warned that another Armenian genocide could take place, and attributed the inaction of the international community to encouraging Azerbaijan that it would face no serious consequences. ^[21]

Background

Main article: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians. ^[22] The Nagorno-Karabakh region is entirely claimed by and partially de facto controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh but is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan de facto controls one-third of the Nagorno-Karabakh region as well as the seven surrounding districts.

The conflict escalated in 1988, when the Karabakh Armenians demanded the transfer of the region from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia, triggering the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on 10 November, resulting in Armenia and Artsakh losing the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh as well as one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. ^[23] Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have continued following the 2020 war, with intermittent but ongoing casualties.

Since the 2020 war, Azerbaijan has rescinded its offer of special status or autonomy to its indigenous Armenian residents and instead insists on their "integration" into Azerbaijan. ^{[24] [25]} International mediators and human rights organizations have emphasized self-determination for the local Armenian population ^{[26] [27]} and do not believe that Artsakh Armenians can live safely under the dynastic, authoritarian regime ^{[28] [29]} of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. ^{[30] [31]}

Prelude

Further information: Armenia–Azerbaijan border crisis and Blockade of the Republic of Artsakh (2022–present)

Since December 2022, Azerbaijan has blockaded the Republic of Artsakh from the outside world, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire agreement and international legal rulings. ^[32] The Azerbaijani government seized territory around the Lachin corridor both within Artsakh and Armenia, blocked alternative bypass routes, and installed a military checkpoint. ^[33] Azerbaijan has also sabotaged critical civilian infrastructure of Artsakh, including gas, electricity, and Internet access. ^{[34] [35]}

The blockade has created a humanitarian crisis for the population of Artsakh; imports of essential goods have been blocked, as well as humanitarian convoys of the Red Cross and the Russian peacekeepers, trapping the 120,000 residents of the region. ^{[36] [37]} Shortages of essential goods –including electricity, fuel, and water reserves –are widespread and emergency reserves are being rationed, alongside massive unemployment, and closures of schools and public transportation. ^{[38] [39]}

Azerbaijan claims its actions are aimed at preventing the transportation of weapons and natural resources; ^{[40] [41]} Azerbaijan also says its goal is for Artsakh's "integration" into Azerbaijan, despite opposition from the population, and has threatened military action if the Artsakh government does not dissolve. ^{[42] [43]}

Numerous countries, international organizations, and human rights observers have condemned Azerbaijan's blockade and consider it to be a form of hybrid warfare, ^{[44] [45]} ethnic cleansing, ^[46] and genocide. ^{[47] [48]} Multiple international observers also consider the blockade and the inaction of the Russian peacekeepers to be violations of the tripartite 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, which ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and guarantees safe passage through the Lachin corridor. ^{[49] [50]} Azerbaijan and Russia have ignored calls from various countries and international organizations to restore freedom of movement through the corridor. ^{[51] [52]}

Two weeks before the clashes, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention issued a report in which it said "There is alarming evidence that President [Ilham] Aliyev may be planning a military assault on Artsakh in the very near future," noting that Aliyev recently had signed a new decree ordering all eligible citizens 18 years of age or older to report for military service between 1 October and 31 October 2023. The Lemkin Institute also warned that "A military assault on Artsakh could lead to the mass murder stage of genocide. It would almost assuredly result in the forced displacement of Armenians from Artsakh and the widespread commission of genocidal atrocities...[and]...Artsakh's Armenians would lose their distinct identity as Artsakhsis, an identity that has been forged through centuries—millennia—of independent cultural flourishing in their mountains and valleys." ^[53]

Offensive

19 September

Azerbaijani soldiers in Karabakh

On 19 September 2023, in violation of the 2020 ceasefire conditions, ^{[11] [12]} Azerbaijan launched a large-scale offensive against Republic of Artsakh. The Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense claimed to be undertaking "local anti-terrorist activities" and alleged Armenian land mines caused the death of two Azerbaijani civilians and four policeman as a pretext. ^{[54] [55]} The ministry demanding the disarmament and withdrawal of all ethnic Armenian soldiers, as well as the unconditional surrender and dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. ^[56] The statement ended with a notice that the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring Centre were informed about the ongoing activities, ^[57] but Russia denied this, adding that its peacekeepers were only informed of the matter a "few minutes" before it started. ^[58]

Azerbaijan claimed that no civilian positions were being attacked with weaponry, but it was clear that strikes were being carried out in close proximity to large cities and densely populated areas. ^[15] The attacks occurred in the midst of Azerbaijan's ongoing blockade of the region. ^[15] Azerbaijan said that it had set up "humanitarian corridors and reception points on the Lachin road and in other directions" which will "ensure the evacuation of the population from the dangerous area". ^[59] These announcements were distributed through SMS, leaflets, and social media and triggered fears of ethnic cleansing among the residents. ^[60] Artsakhi authorities warned its residents that "the Azerbaijani propaganda machine uses large-scale information and psychological influence measures." ^{[61] [62]} The Cyber Security Service of Azerbaijan  [ az ] temporarily restricted access to TikTok in Azerbaijan. ^{[63] [64]}

Nagorno-Karabakh's leadership offered to negotiate with Azerbaijan after it launched its military offensive. "The Karabakh side appeals to the Azerbaijani side to immediately cease the hostilities and sit down at the negotiation table with the aim of settling the situation", it said issued late in the afternoon. The Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan responded by saying that it is ready to meet with representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh. ^[54] It stressed at the same time that the Azerbaijani offensive will continue unless Artsakhi disband their government bodies and armed forces. ^[65] The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry later said that its forces had captured more than 60 military posts and destroyed up to 20 military vehicles. ^[66] The Armenian daily Azg reported there were claims that Azerbaijan had captured the villages of Charektar and Getavan. ^[67] The Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan claimed Armenian forces attacked Shusha with large-caliber weapons, killing one civilian. ^[68]

Artsakh authorities said the state's de facto capital, Stepanakert, and other cities were being heavily shelled, accusing Azerbaijan of attempted ethnic cleansing. ^{[69] [70]} Artsakh's human rights ombudsman Gegham Stepanyan said two civilians, including a child, were killed, ^[71] while 11 others were injured, ^[72] eight of which were children. ^[58] By the end of the day, Artsakh reported that 27 people had been killed and more than 200 were injured. ^[73]

Artsakh authorities reported that they had evacuated over 7,000 people from 16 rural settlements, ^[74] while Russian peacekeepers evacuated 5,000 others. ^[75] Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova announced that Russian food and medicine arrived in Artsakh via the Lachin and Agdam routes. ^[76]

20 September

Wounded Armenian civilian of Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenian children of Nagorno-Karabakh hiding during the Azerbaijani attacks

Armenian sources reported that Aznavur Saghyan, the mayor of Martuni, was killed ^[77] by an Azerbaijani sniper. ^[78] It was also reported that the Amaras Monastery near Sos had fallen under Azerbaijani control. ^[79] Azg reported that Azerbaijani forces had captured the settlements of Drmbon and Harav; ^[80] later that day, Chankatagh, Chapar, Karmir Shuka, Khachmach, Machkalashen, Sarushen, Shosh and Vaghuhas were also reported to have been captured. ^[81] Furthermore, the Armenian daily Aravot reported that the Kashen mine, ^[82] one of the biggest sources of tax revenue for the Artsakhi government, ^[83] had fallen under Azerbaijani control. ^[82] Artsakhi president Samvel Shahramanyan said "Nagorno-Karabakh will have to take relevant steps to ensure physical security of population". ^[84]

Artsakhi authorities agreed to a proposal by Russian peacekeeping forces to establish a ceasefire from 13:00 on 20 September. ^[85] Under the terms of the agreement, the government of the Republic of Artsakh agreed to disarm and to enter into talks with the government of Azerbaijan regarding the reintegration of the territory. ^[86] Among the Azerbaijani demands was a requirement for Arsakh and Armenia to surrender a list of individuals to Azerbaijan for prosecution and trial, including former and current Artsakhi civilian and military leaders. ^{[87] [88]} Large masses of Armenian civilians began fleeing Artsakh after the ceasefire announcement, with many of them gathering at Stepanakert Airport. ^{[89] [90]} Later, Nikol Pashinyan commented on this that "it is obvious to me that this is being done to cause internal political upheavals and chaos". ^[91] The Armenian government said it was not involved in the drafting of the ceasefire agreement, while Azerbaijani presidential envoy Elchin Amirbekov said that Russian peacekeepers helped facilitate the ceasefire. ^[75]

Colonel Anar Eyvazov  [ az ], Spokesperson for the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, announced that during the operation, Azerbaijan had captured 90 combat positions. He also said that Azerbaijani forces had captured seven combat vehicles, one tank, four mortars and two infantry fighting vehicles from Armenian military units as trophies. ^[92]

Shelling of Stepanakert continued until the city's electrical grid was knocked out several hours after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect. ^{[93] [94]} According to a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense, several peacekeepers were killed near the village of Chankatagh in Tartar District after their vehicle was attacked  [ ru ] while they were returning from an observation post. ^{[95] [96] [97]} The Azerbaijani ministry of defense reported that "As a result of the shelling, the Russian servicemen in the vehicle were killed," and expressed condolences to Russia and vowed to launch a probe into what happened. ^{[98] [99] [100] [101]} Among those killed was Captain First Rank Ivan Kovgan, the deputy commander of Russia's Northern Fleet submarine forces, ^[102] and a concurrent deputy commander of the peacekeeping force. ^[103] With Azerbaijani cooperation, Russian peacekeepers detained suspects, and an Azerbaijani commander was suspended. ^[104] President Ilham Aliyev subsequently apologized over phone to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the incident. ^[105] According to the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan, a group of military personnel of the Azerbaijan army opened fire on a car with Russian peacekeepers, mistaken believing they were Armenian forces due to the difficult terrain and foggy-rainy weather conditions. As a result five peacekeepers were killed. ^{[9] [106]}

Ilham Aliyev addressing the nation on 20 September 2023

Armenia accused Azerbaijan of firing at its soldiers in the border town of Sotk, which Azerbaijan denied. ^[75]

In a televised address that evening, President Aliyev reiterated that "Karabakh is Azerbaijan", adding that his "iron fist" had consigned the idea of Karabakh being a separate Armenian state to history. ^[107]

Aftermath

21 September

Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh evacuated from their homes

Negotiations between representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan took place in Yevlakh to discuss security, rights and "issues of re-integration". ^[108] The Artsakhi delegation consisted of Sergey Martirosyan and Davit Melkumyan  [ hy ], and was escorted by Russian peacekeepers. The Azerbaijani delegation consisted of Ramin Mammadov, Bashir Hajiyev and Ilkin Sultanov. ^[109] The head of the Joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring Center, Oleg Semyonov, was also present. ^{[110] [111]} The talks, which lasted two hours, ended without a formal agreement, however a statement from the Azerbaijani government said the they were "constructive and positive" and that further negotiations would continue in October. ^{[112] [113] [114]} According to the Artsakhi delegation, the negotiations stalled due to a "whole host of questions", but specifically when they requested security guarantees that the Azerbaijani government would not force ethnic Armenians to leave the Nagorno-Karabakh region, however, both sides agreed on the cessation of military action. ^{[115] [116]} Azerbaijan agreed to send food and fuel supplies to the region. ^[117]

The Artsakh Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that the Azerbaijani military violated the ceasefire and continued to shell Stepanakert "with different types of small arms". ^[19] Rheinische Post reported ceasefire violations by Azerbaijani forces and gunfire in Stepanakert, according to residents. ^[20] It was reported that electricity in Artsakh cannot be supplied because a number of substations that feed the electrical grid were under Azerbaijani control, with "Artsakhenergo" CJSC carrying out restoration works in Stepanakert. ^[118] Russia recorded two instances of ceasefire violations in Shusha District and three other instances in Mardakert District. ^[119]

Artak Beglaryan  [ hy ], former Artsakhi Minister of State, reported that Karkijahan, a suburb of Stepanakert, was "empty" following a ceasefire violation. Many residents took refuge in Stepanakert itself. ^[120] He stated that Azerbaijani troops entered several houses in the neighborhood. ^[121] To avoid further tensions, Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the outskirts of Stepanakert, including in Karkijahan. ^[122] Artsakhi armed forces were also deployed to the area. ^[121]

At a meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Armenia proposed that a United Nations peacekeeping mission should be deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh and called for the establishment of an international mechanism for dialogue between the Azerbaijan and representatives of the ethnic Armenian community in the region. ^{[123] [124]}

22 September

Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, stated that his government would ensure that civilians can travel safely in their own vehicles on roads that connect Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. ^[125] He also suggested that an amnesty would be offered to former combatants who agree to disarm. Some ethnic Armenian armed groups vowed to continue fighting. ^{[126] [127]} Rumors spread on some Internet news publications that these included former colonel Karen Jalavyan and his subordinates. A journalist from Hraparak contacted Jalavyan and asked him if the rumors were true, but he did not answer the question directly. Noticeably upset, he stated that "the entire nation has washed its hands from the people of Karabakh" and told Pashinyan to "go defend Artsakh". ^{[128] [129]}

Artsakhi government spokesperson Armine Hayrapetyan told Agence-France Presse that Azerbaijani forces had positioned themselves around Stepanakert, prompting residents to hide in basements for fear of killings. She also added that since the Azerbaijani offensive, Stepanakert and other parts of Nagorno-Karabakh have lost most basic services such as electricity, gas, food, fuel, internet and telephone connections. ^[130] Azerbaijan said it had sent two 20-tonne trucks with food and hygiene products and well as two trucks with bread to Nagorno-Karabakh from Aghdam. ^[130]

The second day of negotiations also ended in deadlock despite the amnesty offer to Artsakhi commanders and fighters as the Artsakhi delegation stated the questions of humanitarian aid, security guarantees, and a promise from the Azerbaijani delegation to not drive Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh were unresolved. ^[131] According to Armenian journalist Tatul Hakobyan, a meeting between the head of State Security Service of Azerbaijan, Ali Naghiyev, and Artsakh's president Samvel Shahramanyan took place in Shusha. ^[132]

Elements of the Artsakh defense force began transferring their weapons to Russian peacekeepers, ^[133] with the Russian defence ministry confirming the turnover of six armored vehicles, more than 800 small arms units and 5,000 rounds of ammunition. ^[134] The memorial tank monument, a restored T-72 tank of Gagik Avsharyan commemorating the capture of Shusha and located on Shusha road, was reportedly dismantled by Azerbaijan. ^{[135] [136]} Additionally, a convoy of 15 trucks from the Russian peacekeepers left Armenia for Nagorno-Karabakh, crossing the Lachin corridor. ^[137] More than 50 tonnes of humanitarian aid was delivered to Nagorno-Karabakh by Russian peacekeepers, according to the Russian defence ministry. ^[138]

23 September

For the first time since the Azerbaijani offensive, a Red Cross aid convoy was spotted at the Armenia–Azerbaijan border heading for Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[139] The Red Cross later evacuated 17 people who were injured during the clashes. ^[140] In a separate delivery, Russia sent 50 tons of aid to Stepanakert. ^[141]

The Russian Ministry of Defense said one ceasefire violation was recorded in the Mardakert region, which resulted in one Azerbaijani soldier being injured following a shootout. ^{[142] [143]}

24 September

A mass evacuation of ethnic Armenian civilians from Nagorno-Karabakh started, fearing persecution and ethnic cleansing if they remain. ^{[144] [145]} The first group of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh arrived in Armenia through the border post at Kornidzor. ^[146] By the end of the day, the Armenian government said 1,050 refugees had arrived in the country. ^[147] The government of Artsakh said that families left homeless due to Azerbaijan's military offensive and who expressed a desire to leave Artsakh will be transferred to Armenia, accompanied by Russian peacekeepers. It was reported that 23 ambulances, accompanied by specialists and the Red Cross, were transporting 23 severely injured people from Artsakh to Armenia. ^[148] It was also reported that due to Azerbaijan's offensive, more than 8,000 residents were displaced from their homes. ^[148]

The town of Martakert was reported to have came under Azerbaijani military control. ^[149]

The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry claimed that two of its soldiers were killed after their truck hit a landmine. ^[150]

25 September

According to the Armenian government, 6,500 refugees had arrived from Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[151] The theatre in the city of Goris was converted into a base for the Red Cross to accommodate refugees. ^[152] A secondary hub was later opened in Vayk. ^[153]

At least 125 people were killed ^[154] and more than 290 people were injured after an explosion at a fuel storage facility in Berkadzor, 6 kilometres (3.7 miles) from Stepanakert. Most of the victims were queueing to obtain fuel for their vehicles while on their way to Armenia. ^[150] Victims with various degrees of burns were treated in the Republican Medical Center of Artsakh, facilities of the Arevik community organization, medical facilities in Ivanyan, and the medical station of Russian peacekeepers. ^[155] The Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan said it sent an ambulance carrying medical supplies. ^{[156] [157]}

A second round of negotiations between representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijan took place in Khojaly, where according to Azerbaijan, humanitarian issues were discussed. ^{[158] [159]} The two sides agreed to a third meeting taking place in a few days time. ^[160]

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan travelled to Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to meet with President Aliyev. ^{[161] [151]} United States Agency for International Development head Samantha Power and State Department Acting Assistant Secretary for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim visited Armenia. ^[162]

26 September

The Armenian government said at least 28,120 people had fled Nagorno-Karabakh, ^{[154] [163]} equivalent to a quarter of the region's population. ^[164] Azerbaijani forces were reported to be screening the refugees as part of its search for "war criminals" in border checkpoints. ^[165]

Azerbaijani forces reportedly took control of Martuni (Khojavend). ^[166]

A meeting between Armen Grigoryan, head of Armenia's Security Council and Hikmat Hajiyev, Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of Azerbaijan, was hosted by the European Union in Brussels. At the meeting the EU emphasized the need for access for humanitarian and human rights organizations into Nagorno-Karabakh. It also wanted more details about the Azerbaijani government's plans for the future of Karabakh Armenians in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan outlined its plans to provide humanitarian assistance and security to the local population in the region. ^{[167] [168]}

United States Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with President Aliyev by telephone and urged him to refrain from further hostilities and to allow an international observer mission into Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[169] German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock also urged that independent observers be allowed into the region. ^[170] Russia insisted that any international observer mission in the region can only happen with permission from the government of Azerbaijan. ^[171]

27 September

The graves of Azerbaijani soldiers killed during the offensive

Armenian authorities reported that over 50,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, nearly half of the region's population, had left for Armenia, including 17,000 children. ^[172] Azerbaijan said that 192 of its servicemen were killed and 511 wounded during the offensive. ^[5] Former State Minister of Artsakh Ruben Vardanyan was arrested by the Azerbaijani State Border Service in Lachin corridor while attempting to cross into Armenia. ^{[173] [174]} United States Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller announced the government of Azerbaijan had given assurances that it would welcome an international monitoring mission to the region and that the United States and its allies would discuss the the composition and mandate of such a mission in the coming days. ^{[175] [176] [177]}

Risk of genocide

Main article: Exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh

Further information: Blockade of the Republic of Artsakh (2022–present) § Genocide risk factors

Ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh seeking refuge due to attacks by Azerbaijani forces

Human rights organizations and experts in genocide prevention issued alerts stating that the indigenous Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh was at risk of genocide, ^{[lower-alpha 2]} while others stated that Azerbaijan was already carrying out such actions. ^{[186] [187] [188]} The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention states "There is no doubt in the minds of experts in genocide prevention – at the Lemkin Institute, but also at Genocide Watch, the International Association of Genocide Scholars, and among legal experts such as former ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo – that what Armenians are facing from Azerbaijan is genocide." ^[189] Experts in genocide prevention have stated that Azerbaijan's ongoing blockade of Artsakh and sabotage of public infrastructure constitutes genocide according to the Genocide Convention: "Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction" and that there are various indicators that Azerbaijan possesses genocidal intent: President Aliyev's public statements, his regime's openly Armenophobic practices and noncompliance with the International Court of Justice orders to end the blockade. ^{[190] [191] [192]}

Christian Solidarity International emphasized that the "United States has had ample notice of the forced deportation that is now unfolding in Nagorno Karabakh, starting with Genocide Watch Emergency Alerts in 2020, 2021, 2022, and a Genocide Warning issued by the Save Karabakh Coalition in December 2022. These warnings were followed by two Genocide Emergency Alerts issued Genocide Watch in 2023, and a declaration of genocide by the first Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo." ^[188] Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, commented on Azerbaijan's ongoing nine-month long blockade of the region: "Armenians fear that this is a prelude to an Azerbaijani attempt to fully drive them all out of their homeland." ^[193]

Analysis

Various political analysts and Artsakh residents consider Azerbaijan's underlying goal for the offensive to be ethnic cleansing. ^{[59] [194]} Luis Moreno Ocampo, the first Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, warned that another Armenian genocide was about to take place. Citing the 1948 Genocide Convention, he stated that Azerbaijan was "deliberately inflicting" living conditions to physically destroy a specific group by blocking the Lachin corridor, and was proceeding to "kill" and cause "serious bodily and mental harm". Moreno Ocampo attributed the inaction of the international community to encouraging Azerbaijan that it would face no serious consequences for committing genocide. He also discredited Aliyev's claims that his regime was not seeking ethnic cleansing, pointing out that Aliyev regularly referred to Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" and claimed "present-day Armenia is our land". ^[21]

Thomas de Waal said that Azerbaijan was emboldened to start its offensive during a downturn in relations between Russia and Armenia, and the loss of the Russian peacekeeping force's "best commanders" to the invasion of Ukraine. He also said that Russia could use such a crisis to instigate regime change in Armenia. ^[58]

Reactions

Armenia

Further information: 2023 Armenian protests

Armenians protesting in front of the UN office in New York over the Azerbaijani attack on Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenians protesting in front of the White House

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the Armenian Armed Forces were not involved in the fighting and that its forces were not stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. He also reiterated that the situation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan border was stable and said that Azerbaijan was trying to ethnically cleanse the region. ^[69] Pashinyan also said that Azerbaijan's motivation for the attack was to draw Armenia into a military confrontation. ^[61] Following the ceasefire on 20 September, Pashinyan said the country was preparing for an influx of 40,000 families from Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[195]

Armenia's Ministry of Defense accused Azerbaijani officials of spreading misinformation, saying that there is no Armenian military equipment or personnel present in Nagorno-Karabakh. ^{[69] [196]} The Armenian foreign ministry accused Azerbaijan of unleashing "large-scale aggression" against Karabakh and attempting "ethnic cleansing" in the region. ^{[69] [70]} Armenia called on the United Nations Security Council and Russia to take action to end the military operation, while Pashinyan called an emergency meeting of the country's National Security Council. ^[69] The council's secretary, Armen Grigoryan, accused Russian peacekeepers of failing to protect Nagorno-Karabakh, ^[197] which was also echoed by Pashinyan. ^[198]

Russia

Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Russia was "deeply alarmed by the sharp escalation." ^{[69] [199]} Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia will not defend Armenia from the Azerbaijani offensive, while strongly criticizing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. ^[200] This comes despite Russia and Armenia both being members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization mutual defense pact and Russia stationing several thousand soldiers in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as peacekeepers. ^[201]

Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied accusations from Armenia that the country's peacekeepers had failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh from the Azerbaijani attack, calling them "unfounded". ^[197] A week before the fighting, President Vladimir Putin said that the country could do nothing if Armenia had already recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, referring to statements made by Pashinyan in May that appeared to recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh in exchange for security guarantees towards the Armenian population. ^[75]

The independent Russian media outlet Meduza said it had obtained a guidance document from the Kremlin circulated on 19 September to state media outlets that recommended blaming Armenia and the West, rather than Azerbaijan, for the escalation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. ^[197] Speaking at the 78th United Nations General Assembly in New York City on 23 September, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the Armenian leadership of adding "fuel to the fire", referring to the conflict, and reiterated that agreements made following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 stated that the existing borders of its former constituent republics were inviolable, hereby recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. ^[202]

Turkey

Hakan Fidan, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, offered diplomatic support to Azerbaijan, stating that their military operation was "justified" and that "Azerbaijan has taken the measures it deems necessary on its own sovereign territory." ^[203] Addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated "As everyone now acknowledges, Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory. Imposition of another status [to the region] will never be accepted," and that "[Turkey] support[s] the steps taken by Azerbaijan — with whom we act together with the motto of one nation, two states — to defend its territorial integrity." ^[204]

Other countries

Map of international reactions to the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes:

  Azerbaijan

  Artsakh and Armenia

  Countries that have condemned Azerbaijan

  Countries that have maintained a neutral stance or called for peace

  Countries that have supported Azerbaijan

  Unknown

• Albanian Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Igli Hasani called on both sides to "prioritize the protection of civilians and preservation of residential areas and the civilian infrastructure". He urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to find a peaceful solution to the issue. ^[205]
• Argentine President Alberto Fernández condemned Azerbaijan for the blockade of the Lachin corridor and urged the international community to "act preemptively" to avoid "new persecutions." ^{[206] [207]}
• The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country was following the conflict with "great concern" and called for peaceful dialogue between both sides with the mediation of the European Union, the United States and Russia. ^[208] Ambassador to the United Nations Sérgio França Danese condemned the military operation, stressing that it would "risk the fragile stability achieved after the 2020 ceasefire". ^[205]
• Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly expressed grave concern with Azerbaijan's military intervention, calling for immediate cessation of hostilities, asking the Azerbaijani government to refrain from any actions and activities that pose a risk to the safety and welfare of the civilian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, labelling the military action as "unjustifiable" and the Lachin corridor blockade as "illegal". ^{[209] [210]} Member of Parliament Garnett Genuis said that Azerbaijan "is launching an aggressive war of choice, calling it a 'military operation' and taking a page out of Russia's playbook in the process" ^[211]
• Chinese Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Geng Shuang said during a United Nations Security Council emergency meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh that China was "carefully monitoring the situation", he added that he hoped that the Russian-mediated ceasefire would be upheld by both sides and result in the end of the conflict. He also expressed regret over the five Russian peacekeepers that were killed during the conflict. ^{[212] [213]}
• Cyprus's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country "categorically condemns the ongoing large-scale military aggression by Azerbaijan against the Armenian-populated Nagorno Karabakh" and called on Azerbaijan to de-escalate immediately. ^[214]
• The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the military operation and called for Azerbaijan "to immediately cease its assault and return to respect for international law" and requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. It stated that France had been "working closely with its European and American partners" to effectively respond to the attack, which it described as "unacceptable". ^[215] Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said it would hold Azerbaijan "responsible for the fate of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh." ^[73] President Emmanuel Macron accused Russia of complicity with Azerbaijan in its offensive and also accused Turkey of threatening Armenia's borders. ^[216]
• Gabon‘s Representative to the United Nations Edwige Koumby Missambo stressed that "everything must be done to avoid a return" to the 2020 war. She called on both sides to adhere to the ceasefire agreement and facilitate access of humanitarian personnel to population in need without restriction. ^[205]
• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock accused Azerbaijan of breaking its promise not to resort to military action in Nagorno-Karabakh and called on it to stop and return to negotiations. ^[217]
• Ghana‘s Representative to the United Nations Carolyn Abena Anima Oppong-Ntiri said the conflict was a reminder of the "fragile peace in the region", extending condolences to the families of civilians and Russian peacekeepers killed. She said an escalation of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh was one that Europe and the rest of the world "can ill afford at this time of immense global security and political upheavals" and appealed for unrestricted humanitarian access as well as free movement along the Lachin Corridor. ^[205]
• Pope Francis urged both sides to cease hostilities and seek a peaceful solution to the crisis. ^[218]
• Iran offered to mediate the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia a day before the military operation began. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani urged both sides to adhere to the 2020 ceasefire agreement. ^[219]
• The Irish Foreign Ministry condemned Azerbaijan's military operation and called for the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh to be respected and for immediate genuine and comprehensive dialogue. ^[220]
• Japanese Foreign Minister Yōko Kamikawa expressed serious concern over the worsening of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, calling for the immediate discontinuation of hostilities and asking Azerbaijan to cease the current military activities. ^{[221] [222]}
• Alim Bayel, Kazakhstan's ambassador to Azerbaijan said that the country welcomed Azerbaijan's initiative to hold talks with "representatives of the Armenian population of Karabakh." He also said that the country hoped "for a speedy resolution of the current situation through peaceful dialogue within the internationally recognized borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan." ^[223]
• Luxembourg’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Jean Asselborn condemned Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. He also stressed that military operations in populated areas must immediately stop to protect the lives of civilians, and Azerbaijan must abide by its international commitments. ^[224]
• Maltese Minister for Foreign and European Affairs and Trade Ian Borg expressed support to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both Armenia and Azerbaijan as he called for all hostilities to stop and both sides to commit to dialogue and negotiation. ^[205]
• Mozambique's Representative to the United Nations Domingos Estêvão Fernandes voiced concern about the conflict and offered condolences for the lives lost. He urged both sides to adhere to the 2020 and the current ceasefire agreements. ^[205]
• Norway's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concern that the population of Nagorno-Karabakh may be forced to leave the region due to Azerbaijan's offensive, which it said would lead to a humanitarian disaster. It stressed that such events must be prevented at all costs and that Azerbaijan was responsible for ensuring the safety and well-being of the Armenian people in the region. ^[225]
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch reaffirmed "unwavering" support for Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, he added that Karabakh is a sovereign territory of Azerbaijan aligning with international resolutions and laws. He also expressed condolences for lives lost in mine explosions and hope for lasting peace in Karabakh. ^[226] Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani met with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov, and reiterated the country's support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. ^[227]
• Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed serious concern about the escalation of the conflict in Karabakh and called on Azerbaijan to cease hostilities and for both sides to resume dialogue involving the European Union and the United States. ^[228]
• Switzerland's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Pascale Baeriswyl said that the military operation placed "additional burden on the already suffering civilian population of the Nagorno-Karabakh region". Following the ceasefire, she called for a lasting halt to hostilities on the ground. She urged both sides to adhere to the 2020 ceasefire agreement and rulings of the International Court of Justice. ^[205]
• United Arab Emirates Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh welcomed the Russian-mediated ceasefire and stressed that all parties involved "must commit to protecting civilians and ensuring their security and safety". He also expressed appreciation for the role played by Russian peacekeepers in providing safe haven for civilians during the conflict and expressed regret on civilians and peacekeepers killed. ^[205]
• In a statement to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the UK said that the military offensive by Azerbaijan was "unacceptable" and urged Azerbaijan to return to dialogue, welcoming the announcement of a ceasefire. ^[229]
• United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkish diplomats about the crisis. ^[215] Meanwhile, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations called on the U.S. and the international community to act to stop Azerbaijan while Representative Brad Sherman stated that the renewed fighting makes clear that "Azerbaijan cannot receive U.S. military aid until it ends the crisis it has created." ^[230] The US military said its ongoing joint military exercise with Armenia, codenamed Eagle Partner 2023, was unaffected by the conflict, and the ten-day exercise concluded as scheduled on 20 September. ^[231] On 26 September, the United States Agency for International Development chief Samantha Power called on Azerbaijan "to maintain the ceasefire and take concrete steps to protect the rights of civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh". ^[232]
• Uzbekistan's first vice-speaker of the Senate of Uzbekistan Sodiq Safoyev expressed support for Azerbaijan and its military operation and praised Azerbaijan for "restoring territorial integrity and justice in Nagorno-Karabakh". ^[233]

International organizations

• President of the European Council of the European Union Charles Michel condemned Azerbaijan's hostility and urged the country to immediately stop its military activities and return to dialogue, through a social media post. ^[234] On 21 September, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy released a statement which condemned the military operation by Azerbaijan against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and deplores the casualties and loss of life caused by this escalation. ^[235] According to RFE/RL's journalist Rikard Jozwiak, this was not issued as a joint statement of the entire bloc because it was vetoed by Hungary. ^{[236] [237]} Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó denied this and said that the country, "along with several other member states, provided feedback and proposed amendments for a joint statement." However, he said that a consensus was not reached, which led Borrell to issue the statement on his own behalf. ^[238] David McAllister, chair of the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee, warned of "serious consequences" if Armenians were pressured to leave. ^[239]
• The human rights organization Genocide Watch issued a new genocide alert on Azerbaijan, saying that the objective of President Aliyev's regime was "to drive all Armenians out of Artsakh through war and genocide," adding that "the silent genocide has become overt" and elevated their assessment of the situation to Stage 9: Extermination. ^[240]
• Organization of Turkic States Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev expressed "serious concern regarding the Armenian provocations against Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial integrity" and condemned "the recent terror acts committed against Azerbaijan". He also expressed the "anti-terror measures conducted by Azerbaijan, will ensure reintegration of the Armenian residents into the constitutional system of the Republic of Azerbaijan". ^[241]
• United Nations spokesman Stéphane Dujarric told Al Jazeera that the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh was "very concerning". He urged both sides to halt hostilities and go back to "sustained dialogue". ^[234] The UN Secretary-General's Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, expressed alarm at the military escalation by Azerbaijan, saying that: "Military action can only contribute to escalate what is already a tense situation and to put the civilian population in the area at risk of violence, including risk of genocide and related atrocity crimes." ^[242]

See also

• 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
• 2023 Artsakhian presidential election
• Armenia–Azerbaijan relations
• List of conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan
• September 2022 Armenia–Azerbaijan clashes

Notes

1. Armenian casualties per Artsakh and Azerbaijani casualties per Azerbaijan ^{[7] [6] [8]}
2. Attributed to multiple references: ^{[178] [179] [180] [181] [182] [183] [184] [185]}

References

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External links

• Media related to 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes at Wikimedia Commons