Longevity escape velocity

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"The first 1000-year-old is probably only ~10 years younger than the first 150-year-old."-Aubrey de Grey Longevity Escape Velocity.png
"The first 1000-year-old is probably only ~10 years younger than the first 150-year-old."–Aubrey de Grey

In the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV), actuarial escape velocity [2] or biological escape velocity [3] is a hypothetical situation in which one's remaining life expectancy (not life expectancy at birth) is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, medical advances would increase people's remaining life expectancy more than the year that just went by. The term is meant as an analogy to the concept of escape velocity in physics, which is the minimum speed required for an object to indefinitely move away from a gravitational body despite the gravitational force pulling the object towards the body.

Contents

Origins of the idea

For many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.

Mouse lifespan research has been the most contributive to conclusive evidence on the matter, since mice require only a few years before research results can be concluded. [4] [5]

The term "longevity escape velocity" was coined by biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey in a 2004 paper, [4] but the concept has been present in the life extension community since at least the 1970s, such as in Robert Anton Wilson's essay Next Stop, Immortality. [6] The concept is also part of the fictional history leading to multi-century youthful lifespans in the science fiction series The Mars Trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson. More recent proponents include David Gobel, co-founder of the Methuselah Foundation and futurist, and technologist Ray Kurzweil, [7] who named one of his books, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever , after the concept. The last two claim that by putting further pressure on science and medicine to focus research on increasing limits of aging, rather than continuing along at its current pace, more lives will be saved in the future, even if the benefit is not immediately apparent. [4]

The idea was even more popularized with the publishing of Aubrey de Grey and Michael Rae's book, Ending Aging , in 2007.

Predictions

Kurzweil predicts that longevity escape velocity will be reached before humanity will realize it. [8] [9] Back in 2018, he predicted that it will be reached in 10–12 years, meaning that the event would occur around 2028–2030. [10] Aubrey de Grey has also similarly predicted that humanity has a 50 percent chance of reaching longevity escape velocity in the mid-late 2030s. [11] [12]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ray Kurzweil</span> American author, inventor and futurist (born 1948)

Raymond Kurzweil is an American computer scientist, author, inventor, and futurist. He is involved in fields such as optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology and electronic keyboard instruments. He has written books on health technology, artificial intelligence (AI), transhumanism, the technological singularity, and futurism. Kurzweil is a public advocate for the futurist and transhumanist movements and gives public talks to share his optimistic outlook on life extension technologies and the future of nanotechnology, robotics, and biotechnology.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Immortality</span> Concept of eternal life

Immortality is the concept of eternal life. Some species possess biological immortality.

Life extension is the concept of extending the human lifespan, either modestly through improvements in medicine or dramatically by increasing the maximum lifespan beyond its generally-settled biological limit of around 125 years. Several researchers in the area, along with "life extensionists", "immortalists", or "longevists", postulate that future breakthroughs in tissue rejuvenation, stem cells, regenerative medicine, molecular repair, gene therapy, pharmaceuticals, and organ replacement will eventually enable humans to have indefinite lifespans through complete rejuvenation to a healthy youthful condition (agerasia). The ethical ramifications, if life extension becomes a possibility, are debated by bioethicists.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Longevity</span> Longer than typical lifespan, especially of humans

Longevity may refer to especially long-lived members of a population, whereas life expectancy is defined statistically as the average number of years remaining at a given age. For example, a population's life expectancy at birth is the same as the average age at death for all people born in the same year.

Maximum life span is a measure of the maximum amount of time one or more members of a population have been observed to survive between birth and death. The term can also denote an estimate of the maximum amount of time that a member of a given species could survive between birth and death, provided circumstances that are optimal to that member's longevity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Aubrey de Grey</span> English author and biogerontologist (born 1963)

Aubrey David Nicholas Jasper de Grey is an English biomedical gerontologist. He is the author of The Mitochondrial Free Radical Theory of Aging (1999) and co-author of Ending Aging (2007). De Grey is known for his view that medical technology may enable human beings alive today not to die from age-related causes. As an amateur mathematician, he has contributed to the study of the Hadwiger–Nelson problem in geometric graph theory, making the first progress on the problem in over 60 years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Biogerontology</span> Sub-field of gerontology

Biogerontology is the sub-field of gerontology concerned with the biological aging process, its evolutionary origins, and potential means to intervene in the process. The term "biogerontology" was coined by S. Rattan, and came in regular use with the start of the journal BIOGERONTOLOGY in 2000. It involves interdisciplinary research on the causes, effects, and mechanisms of biological aging. Biogerontologist Leonard Hayflick has said that the natural average lifespan for a human is around 92 years and, if humans do not invent new approaches to treat aging, they will be stuck with this lifespan. James Vaupel has predicted that life expectancy in industrialized countries will reach 100 for children born after the year 2000. Many surveyed biogerontologists have predicted life expectancies of more than three centuries for people born after the year 2100. Other scientists, more controversially, suggest the possibility of unlimited lifespans for those currently living. For example, Aubrey de Grey offers the "tentative timeframe" that with adequate funding of research to develop interventions in aging such as strategies for engineered negligible senescence, "we have a 50/50 chance of developing technology within about 25 to 30 years from now that will, under reasonable assumptions about the rate of subsequent improvements in that technology, allow us to stop people from dying of aging at any age". The idea of this approach is to use presently available technology to extend lifespans of currently living humans long enough for future technological progress to resolve any remaining aging-related issues. This concept has been referred to as longevity escape velocity.

Strategies for engineered negligible senescence (SENS) is a range of proposed regenerative medical therapies, either planned or currently in development, for the periodic repair of all age-related damage to human tissue. These therapies have the ultimate aim of maintaining a state of negligible senescence in patients and postponing age-associated disease. SENS was first defined by British biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey. Many mainstream scientists believe that it is a fringe theory. De Grey later highlighted similarities and differences of SENS to subsequent categorization systems of the biology of aging, such as the highly influential Hallmarks of Aging published in 2013.

<i>Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever</i> 2004 non-fiction book by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman

Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever is a book authored by Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman published in 2004. The basic premise of the book is that if middle aged people can live long enough, until approximately 120 years, they will be able to live forever—as humanity overcomes all diseases and old age itself. This might also be considered a break-even scenario where developments made during a year increase life expectancy by more than one year. Biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey called this the "Longevity escape velocity" in a 2005 TED talk.

Biodemography is a multidisciplinary approach, integrating biological knowledge with demographic research on human longevity and survival. Biodemographic studies are important for understanding the driving forces of the current longevity revolution, forecasting the future of human longevity, and identification of new strategies for further increase in healthy and productive life span.

Following is a list of topics related to life extension:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eternal youth</span> Physical immortality free of ageing

Eternal youth is the concept of human physical immortality free of ageing. The youth referred to is usually meant to be in contrast to the depredations of aging, rather than a specific age of the human lifespan. Eternal youth is common in mythology, and is a popular theme in fiction.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to life extension:

<i>Transcendent Man</i> 2009 documentary film by Barry Ptolemy

Transcendent Man is a 2009 documentary film by American filmmaker Barry Ptolemy about inventor, futurist and author Ray Kurzweil and his predictions about the future of technology in his 2005 book, The Singularity is Near. In the film, Ptolemy follows Kurzweil around his world as he discusses his thoughts on the technological singularity, a proposed advancement that will occur sometime in the 21st century when progress in artificial intelligence, genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics will result in the creation of a human-machine civilization.

<i>Ending Aging</i> 2007 book by Aubrey de Grey and Michael Rae

Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs that Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime is a 2007 book written by biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey, with his research assistant Michael Rae. Ending Aging describes de Grey's proposal for eliminating aging as a cause of debilitation and death in humans, and restoring the body to an indefinitely youthful state, a project that he calls the "strategies for engineered negligible senescence" ("SENS"). De Grey argues that defeating aging is feasible, possibly within a few decades, and he outlines steps that can be taken to hasten the development of regenerative medicine treatments for each side of aging.

Pro-aging trance, also known as pro-aging edifice, is a term coined by British author and biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey to describe the broadly positive and fatalistic attitude toward aging in society.

The anti-aging movement is a social movement devoted to eliminating or reversing aging, or reducing the effects of it. A substantial portion of the attention of the movement is on the possibilities for life extension, but there is also interest in techniques such as cosmetic surgery which ameliorate the effects of aging rather than delay or defeat it.

iLabs is a non-profit Milan-based organization pursuing multidisciplinary research on radical extension of human life-span. It was founded in 1977 by Gabriele Rossi and Antonella Canonico, who advocate the scenario known as “Semi-Immortality”, an elaborate vision of an era of quasi-immortal individuals, that is philosophically linked to other instances of Transhumanism and futurists’ theories.

The Lifespan Extension Advocacy Foundation (LEAF) is a non-profit organization with mission to support fundamental research on the main mechanisms of aging and age-related diseases and educate the public on the possibility of bringing aging under medical control in order to prevent, postpone and cure age-related diseases. It was founded in 2014 and is based in New York City, New York, USA.

This timeline lists notable events in the history of research into senescence or biological aging, including the research and development of life extension methods, brain aging delay methods and rejuvenation.

References

  1. Aubrey de Grey, A roadmap to end aging. In: TEDGlobal 2005.
  2. "Actuarial Escape Velocity". The Futurist. 2008-03-25.
  3. Palmer, Raymond D. (December 12, 2022). "Three Tiers to biological escape velocity: The quest to outwit aging". Aging Medicine. 5 (4): 281–286. doi:10.1002/agm2.12231. PMC   9805293 . PMID   36606268. there are three distinct classes of longevity and anti-aging technologies that are emerging globally, and the ability of each class is clearly apparent in fending off aspects of biological decay. Tier 3, however, reigns supreme in rejuvenation therapies that may make up future pathways to reach biological escape velocity.
  4. 1 2 3 de Grey, ADNJ (2004-06-15). "Escape velocity: why the prospect of extreme human life extension matters now". PLOS Biol. 2 (6): 723–726. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.0020187 . PMC   423155 .
  5. Dibbell, Julian (2006-10-23), "The Fast Supper", New York Magazine
  6. Wilson, Robert Anton (November 1978). "Next Stop, Immortality". Future Life (6). Retrieved 29 November 2020.
  7. Birnbaum, Ben (2006), "Extension program", Boston College Magazine, archived from the original on 2009-01-16, retrieved 2014-02-08
  8. Diamandis, Peter H. (2017-11-10). "3 Dangerous Ideas From Ray Kurzweil". Singularity Hub. Retrieved 2020-11-15.
  9. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9qb2Vyb2dhbmV4cC5saWJzeW4uY29tL3Jzcw/episode/NzE5YWE0MzgtZTA0Ni0xMWVlLWJkZDEtOGZkYWE2NWUwYTJm?sa=X&ved=0CCoQz4EHahgKEwjI5ZLFme-EAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQlx0
  10. Koulopoulos, Thomas (2018-01-19). "According to Peter Diamandis and Ray Kurzweil, These Are the Most Dangerous and Disruptive Ideas". Inc.com. Retrieved 2020-11-15.
  11. I now think there is a 50% chance that we will reach longevity escape velocity by 2036. After that point (the "Methuselarity"), those who regularly receive the latest rejuvenation therapies will never suffer from age-related ill-health at any age - Aubrey de Grey
  12. "Defeating Aging by 2036". 9 April 2021.