Meteorological history | |
---|---|
Formed | 9 October 2022 (ECMWF) 16 October 2022 ( Geophysical Research Letters paper) |
Dissipated | 20 October 2022 (ECMWF) 22 October 2022 (Geophysical Research Letters paper) |
Extratropical cyclone | |
Lowest pressure | ≤900.7 hPa (mbar);≤26.60 inHg |
Overall effects | |
Fatalities | None |
Damage | None |
The October 2022 Southern Ocean cyclone,also referred to as the Peter I storm [1] or EC2022 [2] was the most intense extratropical cyclone on record. Forming as a weak depression near Tonga late on 9 October,the extratropical cyclone tracked slowly southeastward across the South Pacific,remaining weak. Starting on 14 October,the cyclone began rapid deepening as it moved towards Antarctica. Deepening rates peaked on 16 October,where the pressure fell as rapidly as 19 mbar (0.56 inHg) over a six-hour period. The storm peaked early on 17 October in the Bellingshausen Sea,with a minimum pressure of around 900 mbar (26.58 inHg). The cyclone moved slowly in a loop,rising in pressure over the next few days before dissipating on 20 October.
The cyclone's pressure has been estimated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as 900.7 mbar (26.60 inHg) at 06:00 UTC on 17 October. An analysis paper published in Geophysical Research Letters in July 2023 got a minimum pressure of 899.91 mbar (26.574 inHg) at 03:00 UTC the same day. These pressures would make the extratropical cyclone the most intense since at least the start of the satellite era;for comparison,the most intense extratropical cyclone known over the North Atlantic was the Braer Storm in 1993,with a pressure of 914 mbar (27.0 inHg).
The Southern Ocean is defined as the body of water that surrounds Antarctica,generally below 60°degrees south. The status of the Southern Ocean is disputed, [3] with it being an official ocean on the 2002 draft of Limits of Oceans and Seas by the International Hydrographic Organization. [4] However,the draft has not been published due to several naming disputes of different bodies of water,primarily the Sea of Japan. [5]
Extratropical cyclones in the Southern Ocean have been observed to be stronger than Northern Hemisphere cyclones at the same latitude. Cyclones in the Southern Ocean tend to have lowest pressures in mid-late September,when Antarctic sea ice is at is maximum. The lower pressures are likely caused by less friction against sea ice rather than ocean waves. [1] As there are limited weather stations in the region,pressures in the region are calculated using results from ECMWF models and ERA5 reanalysis data using 13 different variables including temperature,potential vorticity and 10 meter wind. [2]
The cyclone's origins can be traced back to 9 October,when a weak extratropical cyclone formed near Tonga. The cyclone spent around a day moving slowly near the island before moving southeastward on 11 October. The cyclone started to deepen on 13 October and rapidly move across the Southeast Pacific. During this time,the isobars along the southeastern side of the cyclone elongated with additional development taking place on the eastern side. This caused an accelerated movement of the cyclone between 06:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC on 13 October. At this time,the associated warm front with this extratropical cyclone started to deepen and turn poleward. Explosive cyclogenesis occurred on the 16th,with the storm's central pressure falling as rapidly as 19 mbar (0.56 inHg) over a six-hour period. A paper in Geophysical Research Letters first identified the cyclone at 03:00 UTC on this date. The cyclone's peak intensity occurred early on 17 October near Peter I Island in the Bellingshausen Sea. The cyclone then executed a clockwise loop in the Bellingshausen Sea for three days while rising in pressure. The ECMWF concluded that the cyclone lost its identity on 20 October while the Geophysical Research Letters paper called a dissipation two days later in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. [1] [2]
The cyclone lasted roughly for ten days,much longer than typical cyclones in the North Pacific and North Atlantic,although some summer cyclones in the Arctic Ocean have been observed to last as long. [1]
A weather station on Thurston Island recorded an elevated pressure of 897 mbar (26.5 inHg),a sea-level pressure of 923 mbar (27.3 inHg). [6] The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional of Argentina marked the cyclone of having a pressure of 905 mbar (26.7 inHg) on 17 October at 12:00 UTC. [7] The analysis of data from the ERA5 model by the ECMWF estimates that the cyclone's central pressure reached a minimum of 900.7 mbar (26.60 inHg) along the edge of the Bellingshausen Sea near Peter I Island at around 06:00 UTC on 17 October. They note that the storm originating in the tropics might have helped the pressure of the cyclone get so low. [1] A subsequent analysis published in Geophysical Research Letters in July 2023 estimated a minimum central pressure of 899.91 mbar (26.574 inHg) at 03:00 UTC 17 October. [2]
In the week preceding the event,ECMWF high-resolution forecast models were "remarkably consistent" in the forecast of a very deep low-pressure system in the Bellingshausen Sea. Minimum pressures were generally in the range of 895–910 mbar (26.4–26.9 inHg). [1] Model runs from the Global Forecast System and various ensemble models also had a consensus of a sub 910 mbar (27 inHg) system. [6]
Most intense extratropical cyclones in the Southern Ocean | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Date | Pressure | Location |
1 | October 2022 | 899.91 mbar (26.574 inHg) | 69°S98°W / 69°S 98°W |
2 | September 2018 | 910.8 mbar (26.90 inHg) | 70°S115°W / 70°S 115°W |
3 | September 2022 | 912.11 mbar (26.935 inHg) | 71°S169°W / 71°S 169°W |
4 | August 1983 | 913.54 mbar (26.977 inHg) | 70°S151°W / 70°S 151°W |
5 | March 2002 | 914.58 mbar (27.008 inHg) | 70°S127°W / 70°S 127°W |
Source: [2] |
At peak, the cyclone reached a minimum pressure of around 900 mbar (26.58 inHg), the lowest pressure of an extratropical cyclone since at least the start of the satellite era in 1980. The deepening rate of the cyclone was greater than 93.4% of other extreme cyclones. [2] Research from the Geophysical Research Letters article shows that amount of extreme extratropical cyclones, especially in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, has significantly increased between 1980 and 2022. Additionally, the southwest Pacific Ocean and the South Atlantic has seen a decrease in extreme cyclones. [2] At least five cyclone in the Southern Ocean have had pressure equal to or less than 914 mbar (27.0 inHg), the same pressure as the Braer Storm. [2] [8]
The 1966 Atlantic hurricane season saw the Weather Bureau office in Miami, Florida, be designated as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and assume responsibility of tropical cyclone forecasting in the basin. The season officially began on June 1, and lasted until November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. It was an above-average season in terms of tropical storms, with a total of 15. The first system, Hurricane Alma, developed over eastern Nicaragua on June 4 and became a rare major hurricane in the month of June. Alma brought severe flooding to Honduras and later to Cuba, but caused relatively minor impact in the Southeastern United States. Alma resulted in 90 deaths and about $210 million (1966 USD) in damage.
The 1969 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season since the 1933 season, and was the final year of the most recent positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) era. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, and lasted until November 30. Altogether, 12 tropical cyclones reached hurricane strength, the highest number on record at the time; a mark not surpassed until 2005. The season was above-average despite an El Niño, which typically suppresses activity in the Atlantic Ocean, while increasing tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean. Activity began with a tropical depression that caused extensive flooding in Cuba and Jamaica in early June. On July 25, Tropical Storm Anna developed, the first named storm of the season. Later in the season, Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine caused severe local flooding in the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia in September.
The 1986 Atlantic hurricane season was a very inactive season that produced 10 depressions, 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and no major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, 1986, and lasted until November 30, 1986. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. During the 1986 season, the first subtropical depression formed in the first week of June, while the last tropical cyclone dissipated at the end of the third week of November. The 1986 season had lower than average activity because of an ongoing El Niño event, and was the least active season in the North Atlantic since the 1983 Atlantic hurricane season. This was also the first season since 1972 to have no major hurricanes.
The 1946 Atlantic hurricane season resulted in no fatalities in the United States. The season officially began on June 15, 1946, and lasted until November 15, 1946. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, the first storm, developed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 13, while the final system dissipated just offshore Florida on November 3. There were seven tropical storms; three of them attained hurricane status, while none intensified into major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. This had not occurred since 1940 and would not again until 1968. Operationally, the fifth tropical storm, which existed near the Azores in early October, was not considered a tropical cyclone but was added to HURDAT in 2014.
The 1940 Atlantic hurricane season was a generally average period of tropical cyclogenesis in 1940. Though the season had no official bounds, most tropical cyclone activity occurred during August and September. Throughout the year, fourteen tropical cyclones formed, of which nine reached tropical storm intensity; six were hurricanes. None of the hurricanes reached major hurricane intensity. Tropical cyclones that did not approach populated areas or shipping lanes, especially if they were relatively weak and of short duration, may have remained undetected. Because technologies such as satellite monitoring were not available until the 1960s, historical data on tropical cyclones from this period are often not reliable. As a result of a reanalysis project which analyzed the season in 2012, an additional hurricane was added to HURDAT. The year's first tropical storm formed on May 19 off the northern coast of Hispaniola. At the time, this was a rare occurrence, as only four other tropical disturbances were known to have formed prior during this period; since then, reanalysis of previous seasons has concluded that there were more than four tropical cyclones in May before 1940. The season's final system was a tropical disturbance situated in the Greater Antilles, which dissipated on November 8.
The 1929 Atlantic hurricane season was among the least active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, with only five tropical cyclones forming. Three of them intensified into a hurricane, with one strengthening further into a major hurricane. The first tropical cyclone of the season developed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 27. Becoming a hurricane on June 28, the storm struck Texas, bringing strong winds to a large area. Three fatalities were reported, while damage was conservatively estimated at $675,000 (1929 USD).
The 1927 Atlantic hurricane season was a relatively inactive season, with eight tropical storms, four of which became hurricanes. One of these became a major hurricane – Category 3 or higher on the modern day Saffir–Simpson scale. The first system, a tropical depression, developed on August 13, while the final cyclone, a tropical storm, merged with a cold front on November 21. No hurricane made landfall in the United States, in contrast to the four that struck the U.S. in the previous season.
The 1918 Atlantic hurricane season was inactive, with a total of six tropical storms developing, four of which intensified into hurricanes. Two of the season's hurricanes made Landfall in the United States, and one became a major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson scale. Additionally, there were four suspected tropical depressions, including one that began the season on June 19 and one that ended the season when it dissipated on October 19. The early 20th century lacked modern forecasting and documentation, and thus, the hurricane database from these years may be incomplete. Four previously unknown tropical cyclones were identified using records, including historical weather maps and ship reports, while information on the known storms was amended.
The 1917 Atlantic hurricane season featured nine known tropical cyclones, four of which became tropical storms. The first system appeared on July 6 east of the Windward Islands. After crossing the islands and traversing the Caribbean Sea, the storm struck Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, before dissipating on July 14. After more than three weeks without tropical cyclogenesis, another tropical storm developed west of Bermuda. As the storm brushed eastern New England, four ships sank near Nantucket, causing 41 fatalities. The same cyclone brought damaging winds to Nova Scotia before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on August 10.
The 1903 Atlantic hurricane season featured seven hurricanes, the most in an Atlantic hurricane season since 1893. The first tropical cyclone was initially observed in the western Atlantic Ocean near Puerto Rico on July 21. The tenth and final system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone well northwest of the Azores on November 25. These dates fall within the period with the most tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Six of the ten tropical cyclones existed simultaneously.
The 1901 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active season without a major hurricane – tropical cyclones that reach at least Category 3 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale – until 2013. The first system was initially observed in the northeastern Caribbean on June 11. The fourteenth and final system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone near Bermuda on November 5. These dates fall within the period with the most tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Eight of the fourteen tropical cyclones existed simultaneously.
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to severe gales, thunderstorms, blizzards, and tornadoes. These types of cyclones are defined as large scale (synoptic) low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth. In contrast with tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones produce rapid changes in temperature and dew point along broad lines, called weather fronts, about the center of the cyclone.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic Ocean. It was a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with nine named storms, the fewest since the 1997 season. The season officially began on June 1, 2009, and ended on November 30, 2009, dates that conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin. The first storm to form was Tropical Depression One on May 28, 2009, while the last storm, Hurricane Ida, dissipated on November 10.
The Braer Storm was the most intense extratropical cyclone ever recorded over the northern Atlantic Ocean. Developing as a weak frontal wave on 8 January 1993, the system moved rapidly northeast. The combination of the absorption of a second low-pressure area to its southeast, a stronger than normal sea surface temperature differential along its path, and the presence of a strong jet stream aloft led to a rapid strengthening of the storm, with its central pressure falling to an estimated 914 hPa on 10 January. Its strength was well predicted by forecasters in the United Kingdom, and warnings were issued before the low initially developed.
The 2015 Pacific hurricane season is the second-most active Pacific hurricane season on record, with 26 named storms, only behind the 1992 season. A record-tying 16 of those storms became hurricanes, and a record 11 storms further intensified into major hurricanes throughout the season. The Central Pacific, the portion of the Northeast Pacific Ocean between the International Date Line and the 140th meridian west, had its most active year on record, with 16 tropical cyclones forming in or entering the basin. Moreover, the season was the third-most active season in terms of accumulated cyclone energy, amassing a total of 290 units. The season officially started on May 15 in the Eastern Pacific and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Northeast Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. This was shown when a tropical depression formed on December 31. The above-average activity during the season was attributed in part to the very strong 2014–2016 El Niño event.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was the final year in a string of three consecutive very active seasons since 2010, with 19 tropical storms. The 2012 season was also a costly one in terms of property damage, mostly due to Hurricane Sandy. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period during each year in which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean. However, Alberto, the first named system of the year, developed on May 19 – the earliest date of formation since Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007. A second tropical cyclone, Beryl, developed later that month. This was the first occurrence of two pre-season named storms in the Atlantic basin since 1951. It moved ashore in North Florida on May 29 with winds of 65 mph (105 km/h), making it the strongest pre-season storm to make landfall in the Atlantic basin. This season marked the first time since 2009 where no tropical cyclones formed in July. Another record was set by Hurricane Nadine later in the season; the system became the fourth-longest-lived tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic, with a total duration of 22.25 days. The final storm to form, Tony, dissipated on October 25 – however, Hurricane Sandy, which formed before Tony, became extratropical on October 29.
The November 2011 Bering Sea cyclone was one of the most powerful extratropical cyclones to affect Alaska on record. On November 8, the National Weather Service (NWS) began issuing severe weather warnings, saying that this was a near-record storm in the Bering Sea. It rapidly deepened from 973 mb (28.7 inHg) to 948 mb (28.0 inHg) in just 24 hours before bottoming out at 943 mbar, roughly comparable to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The storm had been deemed life-threatening by many people. The storm had a forward speed of at least 60 mph (97 km/h) before it had reached Alaska. The storm began affecting Alaska in the late hours of November 8, 2011. The highest gust recorded was 93 mph (150 km/h) on Little Diomede Island. One person was reported missing after being swept into the Bering Sea, and he was later pronounced dead.
The November 2014 Bering Sea cyclone was the most intense extratropical cyclone ever recorded in the Bering Sea, which formed from a new storm developing out of the low-level circulation that separated from Typhoon Nuri, which soon absorbed the latter. The cyclone brought gale-force winds to the western Aleutian Islands and produced even higher gusts in other locations, including a 97 miles per hour (156 km/h) gust in Shemya, Alaska. The storm coincidentally occurred three years after another historic extratropical cyclone impacted an area slightly further to the east.
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The following events occurred in Antarctica in 2022.