Robert F. Engle III | |
---|---|
Born | Syracuse, New York, U.S. | November 10, 1942
Education | Williams College (BS) Cornell University (MS, PhD) |
Academic career | |
Field | Econometrics |
Institution | New York University, since 2000 University of California, San Diego, (1975–2003) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (1969–1975) |
Doctoral advisor | Ta-Chung Liu [1] |
Doctoral students | Mark Watson Tim Bollerslev |
Influences | David Hendry |
Contributions | ARCH Cointegration |
Awards | Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2003) |
Information at IDEAS / RePEc | |
Academic background | |
Thesis | Biases From Time-Aggregation of Distributed Lag Models (1969) |
Robert Fry Engle III (born November 10, 1942) is an American economist and statistician. He won the 2003 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, sharing the award with Clive Granger, "for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility (ARCH)".
Engle was born in Syracuse, New York into a Quaker family [2] and went on to graduate from Williams College with a BS in physics. He earned an MS in physics and a PhD in economics, both from Cornell University, in 1966 and 1969 respectively. [3] After completing his PhD, Engle became an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1969 to 1977. [4] He joined the faculty of the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) in 1975, wherefrom he retired in 2003. He now holds positions of Professor Emeritus and Research Professor at UCSD. He currently teaches at New York University, Stern School of Business where he is the Michael Armellino professor in Management of Financial Services. At New York University, Engle teaches for the Master of Science in Risk Management Program for Executives. [5] [6]
Engle's most important contribution was his path-breaking discovery of a method for analyzing unpredictable movements in financial market prices and interest rates. Accurate characterization and prediction of these volatile movements are essential for quantifying and effectively managing risk. For example, risk measurement plays a key role in pricing options and financial derivatives. Previous researchers had either assumed constant volatility or had used simple devices to approximate it. Engle developed new statistical models of volatility that captured the tendency of stock prices and other financial variables to move between high volatility and low volatility periods ("Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: ARCH"). These statistical models have become essential tools of modern arbitrage pricing theory and practice.
Engle was the central founder and director of NYU-Stern's Volatility Institute which publishes weekly date on systemic risk across countries on its V-LAB site. [7] [8] He was awarded a Doctor Honoris Causa by the Comillas Pontifical University in Spain in 2024. [9]
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: CS1 maint: others (link)Econometrica is a peer-reviewed academic journal of economics, publishing articles in many areas of economics, especially econometrics. It is published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the Econometric Society. The current editor-in-chief is Guido Imbens.
Sir Clive William John Granger was a British econometrician known for his contributions to nonlinear time series analysis. He taught in Britain, at the University of Nottingham and in the United States, at the University of California, San Diego. Granger was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2003 in recognition of the contributions that he and his co-winner, Robert F. Engle, had made to the analysis of time series data. This work fundamentally changed the way in which economists analyse financial and macroeconomic data.
In econometrics, the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is a statistical model for time series data that describes the variance of the current error term or innovation as a function of the actual sizes of the previous time periods' error terms; often the variance is related to the squares of the previous innovations. The ARCH model is appropriate when the error variance in a time series follows an autoregressive (AR) model; if an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model.
In finance, volatility clustering refers to the observation, first noted by Mandelbrot (1963), that "large changes tend to be followed by large changes, of either sign, and small changes tend to be followed by small changes." A quantitative manifestation of this fact is that, while returns themselves are uncorrelated, absolute returns or their squares display a positive, significant and slowly decaying autocorrelation function: corr(|rt|, |rt+τ |) > 0 for τ ranging from a few minutes to several weeks. This empirical property has been documented in the 90's by Granger and Ding (1993) and Ding and Granger (1996) among others; see also. Some studies point further to long-range dependence in volatility time series, see Ding, Granger and Engle (1993) and Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard.
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Tim Peter Bollerslev is a Danish economist, currently the Juanita and Clifton Kreps Professor of Economics at Duke University. A fellow of the Econometric Society, Bollerslev is known for his ideas for measuring and forecasting financial market volatility and for the GARCH model.
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Richard T. Baillie is a British–American economist and statistician who is currently the A J Pasant Professor of Economics at the Michigan State University. He is also part time professor at King's College, London, and Senior Scientific Officer for the Rimini Center for Economic Analysis in Italy, and also on the Executive Council of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics in Econometrics (SNDE).
In statistics, a sequence of random variables is homoscedastic if all its random variables have the same finite variance; this is also known as homogeneity of variance. The complementary notion is called heteroscedasticity, also known as heterogeneity of variance. The spellings homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity are also frequently used. “Skedasticity” comes from the Ancient Greek word “skedánnymi”, meaning “to scatter”. Assuming a variable is homoscedastic when in reality it is heteroscedastic results in unbiased but inefficient point estimates and in biased estimates of standard errors, and may result in overestimating the goodness of fit as measured by the Pearson coefficient.