Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018

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Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018
Flag of Maryland.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06)2022 
  Denton Visitor Center Groundbreaking (27264387634).jpg Ben Jealous crop.jpg
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull
Popular vote1,275,7341,002,729
Percentage55.3%43.5%

Maryland Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results
Hogan:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Jealous:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

The Maryland gubernatorial election of 2018 was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent Governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were eligible to run for a second term in office and pursued a successful re-election against former NAACP CEO Ben Jealous and his running mate Susan Turnbull. Hogan and Rutherford became the first Republican gubernatorial ticket in Maryland to win reelection since 1954. [1]

Governor of Maryland head of state and of the executive branch of government of the State of Maryland, United States

The governor of the State of Maryland heads the executive branch of the government of the State of Maryland, and is the commander-in-chief of the state's National Guard units. The governor is the highest-ranking official in the state and has a broad range of appointive powers in both the state and local governments, as specified by the Maryland Constitution. Because of the extent of these constitutional powers, the governor of Maryland has been ranked as being among the most powerful governors in the United States.

Lieutenant Governor of Maryland position

The Lieutenant Governor of Maryland is the second highest-ranking official in the executive branch of the state government of Maryland in the United States. He or she is elected on the same ticket as the Governor of Maryland and must meet the same qualifications.

Maryland General Assembly legislative body of the State of Maryland, United States

The Maryland General Assembly is the state legislature of the U.S. state of Maryland that convenes within the State House in Annapolis. It is a bicameral body: the upper chamber, the Maryland State Senate, has 47 representatives and the lower chamber, the Maryland House of Delegates, has 141 representatives. Members of both houses serve four-year terms. Each house elects its own officers, judges the qualifications and election of its own members, establishes rules for the conduct of its business, and may punish or expel its own members.

Contents

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Washington metropolitan area Metropolitan area in the United States

The Washington metropolitan area is the metropolitan area centered on Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States. The area includes all of the federal district and parts of the U.S. states of Maryland and Virginia, along with a small portion of West Virginia. While not a part of the Washington metropolitan area, St. Mary's County is part of the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area.

Hillary Clinton American politician, senator, Secretary of State, First Lady

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton is an American politician, diplomat, lawyer, writer, and public speaker. She served as the First Lady of the United States from 1993 to 2001, U.S. Senator from New York from 2001 to 2009, 67th United States Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, and as the Democratic Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2016 election, the first woman nominated by a major party.

Donald Trump 45th and current president of the United States

Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony G. Brown by a margin of 52–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year. [2] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

Anthony G. Brown American lawyer, politician, and soldier

Anthony Gregory Brown is an American lawyer and politician, who is serving as the U.S. Representative for Maryland's 4th congressional district. He previously served two terms as the eighth Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, from 2007 to 2015. He was elected as lieutenant governor in 2006 on the Democratic ticket with Governor Martin O'Malley, and both were re-elected in 2010. In 2014 Brown ran unsuccessfully for governor, losing to Republican Larry Hogan.

Bob Ehrlich American politician

Robert Leroy Ehrlich Jr. is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 60th Governor of Maryland from 2003 to 2007. A Republican, he was first elected after defeating Democratic opponent Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 election. Prior to serving as governor, Ehrlich represented Maryland's 2nd Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Before that he served in the Maryland House of Delegates.

Currently, Hogan has a 68% approval rating, the second highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who has a 71% approval rating. [3] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, he has a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans). [4]

Charlie Baker 72nd Governor of Massachusetts

Charles Duane Baker Jr. is an American businessman and politician serving as the 72nd Governor of Massachusetts since January 8, 2015. A Republican, he was a cabinet official under two Governors of Massachusetts and served ten years as chief executive officer (CEO) of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Barry Glassman American politician

Barry Glassman is a Republican and the current County Executive of Harford County, Maryland, elected to this position in 2014. Formerly, he was a member of the Maryland State Senate, representing District 35 in Harford County, MD; he was appointed in 2008 to fill a vacancy, and subsequently was re-elected to the position in 2010. Glassman was originally elected to the House of Delegates in 1998, along with Joanne S. Parrott, defeating incumbent Michael G. Comeau and winning the seat left vacant by James M. Harkins, who was elected as Harford County Executive.

Harford County, Maryland County in the United States

Harford County is a county in the U.S. state of Maryland. As of the 2010 census, the population was 244,826. Its county seat is Bel Air. Harford County is included in the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is also included in the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area.

Anne Arundel County, Maryland County in the United States

Anne Arundel County, also notated as AA or A.A. County, is a county located in the U.S. state of Maryland. As of the 2010 United States Census, its population was 537,656, a population increase of just under 10% since 2000. Its county seat is Annapolis, which is also the capital of the state. The county is named for Lady Anne Arundell (1615–1649), a member of the ancient family of Arundells in Cornwall, England, and the wife of Cecilius Calvert, 2nd Baron Baltimore (1605–1675), founder and first Lord Proprietor of the colony Province of Maryland.

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
Statewide officials

Melvin A. Steinberg is an American politician who served as the fifth Lieutenant Governor of Maryland from 1987 to 1995 under Governor William Donald Schaefer. He was also President of the Maryland State Senate from January 1983 to 1987, and a member of the State Senate from 1967 until his election to the position of Lieutenant Governor. Steinberg graduated from the University of Baltimore with an A.A. degree in 1952 and with a J.D. degree in 1955.

State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent)210,935100.00%
Total votes210,935100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings [59]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember [60]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman [61]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so a notice had to be posted to tell voters that vote will count for this ticket if cast for Kamenetz and Ervin. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race. [62] )

Declined

Endorsements

Rushern Baker
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate [81]
  • David Trone, businessman [16]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Evrin (withdrew)
U.S. Representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council [103]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council [103]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. Representatives
Attorney General
State Senators
  • Susan Lee, State Senator
  • Will Smith, State Senator
State Delegates
  • Al Carr, State Delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, State Delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, State Delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, State Delegate
  • Karen Young, State Delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, State Delegate
  • Marice Morales, State Delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, State Delegate
  • David Moon, State Delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, State Delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, State Delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase [16]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Individuals
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, State Delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, State Delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council
Krish Vignarajah
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rushern
Baker
Valerie
Ervin
Ben
Jealous
Kevin
Kamenetz†
Richard
Madaleno
Jim
Shea
Krish
Vignarajah
OtherUndecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018505± 4.5%25%7%23%9%6%5%2% [109] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%16%5%16%4%4%4%7% [110] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018532± 6.0%16%8%21%6%4%4%2% [111] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018500± 4.5%26%14%15%4%3%2%3% [112] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018409± 4.8%19%10%12%2%2%2%6% [113] 47%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018501± 4.5%24%14%14%5%1%2%8% [114] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017400± 5.0%28%10%11%3%<1%1%1% [115] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017324± 5.4%13%6%8%2%2%1%22% [116] 44%

† Deceased candidate

Results

A county map of the democratic primary results with Ben Jealous in blue and Rushern Baker in green. Maryland gubernatorial democratic primary map.jpg
A county map of the democratic primary results with Ben Jealous in blue and Rushern Baker in green.
Democratic primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Jealous231,89539.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker171,69629.3%
Democratic Jim Shea48,6478.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah48,0418.2%
Democratic Rich Madaleno34,1845.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamentez/Valerie Ervin18,8513.2%
Democratic Alec Ross13,7802.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe9,4051.6%
Democratic James Jones9,1881.6%
Total votes585,687100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018 deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties. [119]

Green State Central Committee Designation [119]
April 20 - April 25
CandidateDelegates in favorDelegates againstDelegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers1505

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010 [120]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
CandidateVotes in favorVotes againstNot voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith3210

General election

Controversies

More than 74,000 potentially voters were affected during the primaries, when the Motor Vehicle Administration was not able to convey information to voters due to problems with ByteGrid. This is a company that provides key services for Maryland elections, and was bought days before the 2018 primary elections by AltPoint Capital Partners, whose manager is Vladimir Potanin, a person who is close to Russian president, Vladimir Putin. This failure made voters unable to be registered and vote and where forced to fill provisional ballots. [121] No changes were announced for the 2018 gubernatorial election. [122] [123]

Debates

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television. [124]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
FiveThirtyEight [125] Solid ROctober 17, 2018
The Washington Post [126] Likely ROctober 16, 2018
Fox News [127] [lower-alpha 1] Likely ROctober 9, 2018
Politico [128] Likely ROctober 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report [129] Likely RSeptember 14, 2018
Governing [130] Likely RSeptember 14, 2018
Real Clear Politics [131] Likely RSeptember 14, 2018
Daily Kos [132] Likely RSeptember 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [133] Likely RSeptember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [134] Likely RAugust 31, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Ben
Jealous (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018648 LV± 4.5%58%38%0%3%
814 RV± 4.0%56%36%0%2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018806± 3.5%54%36%2% [117] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018625± 4.0%52%37%2% [117] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018472± 4.5%54%32%2% [117] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018831± 3.5%52%36%1% [135] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018601± 4.0%49%40%11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%51%34%14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018968± 4.5%51%39%10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%44%31%22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%50%33%17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%49%36%15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%49%33%18%

Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Larry Hogan / Boyd Rutherford (incumbent)1,275,734 55.35% +4.32%
Democratic Ben Jealous / Susan Turnbull 1,002,72943.50%-3.75%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith13,2860.58%-0.88%
Green Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers11,2650.49%N/A
n/a Write-ins1,8580.08%-0.18%
Total votes2,304,872100.00%N/A
Republican hold

See also

Related Research Articles

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Richard Madaleno American politician

Richard Stuart Madaleno Jr., commonly known as Rich Madaleno is an American politician from Maryland. A Democrat, he is a member of the Maryland State Senate, representing the state's 18th district in Montgomery County, which includes Wheaton and Kensington, as well as parts of Silver Spring, Bethesda and Chevy Chase. Madaleno served as chair of the Montgomery County Senate Delegation from 2008 to 2011. He previously served four years in the House of Delegates.

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Ben Jealous American civic leader

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Kevin Kamenetz American politician

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Rushern Baker American politician

Rushern L. Baker III is an American politician and lawyer. A member of the Democratic Party, he was elected county executive of Prince George's County, Maryland in 2010 and won re-election in 2014. In 2017 and 2018, he mounted an unsuccessful primary campaign to become Governor of Maryland.

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References

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  110. Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  111. Alec Ross with 2%
  112. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  113. Alec Ross 3%, Ralph Jaffe 1%, Other 2%
  114. Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  115. Alec Ross with 1%
  116. Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%
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  135. Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%
Official campaign websites