Next Spanish general election

Next Spanish general election

←  2023 No later than 22 August 2027
←  outgoing members
All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of 266) seats in the Senate 176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion polls
Leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo Pedro Sánchez Santiago Abascal Party PP PSOE Vox Leader since 2 April 2022 18 June 2017 20 September 2014 Leader's seat Madrid Madrid Madrid Last election 137 seats, 33.1% 121 seats, 31.7% 33 seats, 12.4% Current seats 137 120 33 Seats needed 39 56 143   Leader TBD Gabriel Rufián Míriam Nogueras Party Sumar ERC Junts Leader since TBD 14 October 2019 12 March 2021 Leader's seat TBD Barcelona Barcelona Last election 31 seats, 12.3% 7 seats, 1.9% 7 seats, 1.6% Current seats 27 7 7 Seats needed 149 N/A [lower-alpha 1] N/A [lower-alpha 2]
Constituencies for the Congress of Deputies
Incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez PSOE

The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the 16th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 265 seats in the Senate.

The inconclusive result of the 2023 election raised the possibility of a snap election being held by late 2023 or early 2024. However, an agreement was ultimately reached between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) to support the re-election of incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in exchange of a controversial amnesty law for Catalan politicians convicted or investigated for events related to the 2017–2018 Spanish constitutional crisis and the 2019–2020 Catalan protests. ^{[1] [2]} Sánchez's investiture was materialized on 16 November 2023, allowing him to form his third cabinet. ^[3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish Cortes Generales are envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a prime minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override. ^{[4] [5]} Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights. ^{[6] [7]}

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain, with each being allocated an initial minimum of two seats and the remaining 248 being distributed in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting. ^{[8] [9]} The use of the electoral method may result in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[10]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency would be entitled the following seats (as of 23 December 2023): ^{[lower-alpha 3]}

Seats	Constituencies
38	Madrid (+1)
32	Barcelona
16	Valencia
12	Alicante, Seville
11	Málaga
10	Murcia
8	A Coruña, Balearic Islands, Biscay, Cádiz (–1), Las Palmas
7	Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Zaragoza, Santa Cruz de Tenerife
6	Almería, Córdoba, Gipuzkoa, Girona, Tarragona, Toledo
5	Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarre, Valladolid
4	Álava, Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, Salamanca
3	Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora
2	Soria

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting system, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza–Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants. ^{[12] [13]}

Election date

The term of each chamber of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. ^[14] The previous election was held on 23 July 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 23 July 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOE no later than 29 June 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 22 August 2027.

The prime minister has the prerogative to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot. ^[15] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of 2024 there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

Parliamentary composition

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers. ^{[16] [17]}

Current parliamentary composition [18] Congress of Deputies Groups Parties Deputies Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group in the Congress PP 137 137 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 101 120 PSC 19 Vox Parliamentary Group Vox 33 33 Unite Plurinational Parliamentary Group SMR 11 27 CatComú 6 IU 5 Compromís 2 MM 1 CHA 1 Més 1 Republican Parliamentary Group ERC 7 7 Together for Catalonia Parliamentary Group JxCat 7 7 EH Bildu Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 6 6 Basque Parliamentary Group (EAJ/PNV) EAJ/PNV 5 5 Mixed Parliamentary Group Podemos 4 8 BNG 1 CCa 1 UPN 1 INDEP 1 [lower-alpha 4]

Current parliamentary composition [20] Senate Groups Parties Senators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group in the Senate PP 145 145 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 74 88 PSC 14 Left for Independence (Republican Left–EH Bildu) Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 5 9 ERC 4 Plural Parliamentary Group in the Senate (JxCat–CCa–AHI–BNG) JxCat 4 7 CCa 1 AHI 1 BNG 1 Basque Parliamentary Group in the Senate (EAJ/PNV) EAJ/PNV 5 6 PSOE 1 Confederal Left Parliamentary Group (More Madrid, Ibiza and Formentera in the Senate, Commitment, Gomera Socialist Group and Yes to the Future) MM 1 6 EiFS 1 Compromís 1 ASG 1 GBai 1 PSOE 1 Mixed Parliamentary Group Vox 3 4 UPN 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either chamber of the Cortes at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies. ^[21] The electoral law provides for a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, electoral campaigning, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again. ^[22]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result			Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Con.	Sen.
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Navarre Platform (PN)		Alberto Núñez Feijóo	Conservatism Christian democracy	33.06%	137	120	N
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)		Pedro Sánchez	Social democracy	31.68%	121	72	Y	[23]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Santiago Abascal	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	12.38%	33	0	N
	Sumar	List Unite Movement (SMR) United Left (IU) – Communist Party of Spain (PCE) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Ecosocialists of the Region of Murcia (ESRM) – Initiative for El Hierro (IpH) – Republican Left (IR) More Madrid (MM) Greens Equo (VQ) Catalonia in Common (CatComú) – Barcelona in Common (BComú) – Green Left (EV) Commitment Coalition (Compromís) – Més–Compromís (Més) – Valencian People's Initiative (IdPV) – Greens Equo of the Valencian Country (VerdsEquo) More for Mallorca (Més) More for Menorca (MxMe) Aragonese Union (CHA) Drago Canaries Party (DRG) Asturian Left (IAS) Assembly (Batzarre) Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA)		TBD	Progressivism Left-wing populism Green politics	12.33%	31	0	Y	[24]
	Podemos	List We Can (Podemos) Green Alliance (AV)		Ione Belarra	Left-wing populism Democratic socialism				N	[25]
	ERC	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Republican Left of the Valencian Country (ERPV)		Gabriel Rufián	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	1.89%	7	— [lower-alpha 5]	N
	Junts	List Together for Catalonia (JxCat) Democrats of Catalonia (DC) Left Movement (MES)		Míriam Nogueras	Catalan independence Sovereigntism Populism	1.60%	7	1	N
	EH Bildu	List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba)		Mertxe Aizpurua	Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism	1.36%	6	— [lower-alpha 5]	N
	EAJ/PNV	List Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)		Aitor Esteban	Basque nationalism Christian democracy Social democracy	1.12%	5	4	N
	BNG	List Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) – Galician People's Union (UPG) – Galician Movement for Socialism (MGS) – Abrente–Galician Democratic Left (Abrente–EDG) – Galician Workers' Front (FOGA)		Néstor Rego	Galician nationalism Left-wing nationalism Socialism	0.62%	1	0	N
	CCa	List Canarian Coalition (CCa) Independent Herrenian Group (AHI) United for Gran Canaria (UxGC) United for Mogán (JPM) The Strength of Santa Lucía (La Fortaleza) Assembly of Neighbors of San Mateo (AVESAN) Socialist Group for Lanzarote (ASL) Tejeda for the Change (Tejeda por el Cambio) Local Platform for Santa Brígida (PVSB) Guía Now (AG) Democratic Centre Coalition (CCD)		Cristina Valido	Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism	0.47%	1	0	N
	UPN	List Navarrese People's Union (UPN)		Alberto Catalán	Regionalism Conservatism Christian democracy	0.21%	1	1	N
	ERC– EH Bildu	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)		Mirella Cortès Gès	Left-wing nationalism	Senate		7 [lower-alpha 5]	N
	ASG	List Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)		Fabián Chinea	Insularism Social democracy	Senate		1	N
	EFS	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Unite Movement (SMR) United Left (EU) Now Ibiza (Ara Eivissa)		Juanjo Ferrer	Progressivism	Senate		1	N
	AHI	List Independent Herrenian Group (AHI)		Javier Armas	Insularism Canarian nationalism Centrism	Senate		1	N

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

Local regression trend line of poll results from 23 July 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Notes

1. ERC does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
2. Junts does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
3. This seat allocation has been manually calculated by applying the electoral rules set out in the law, on the basis of the latest official population figures provided by the Spanish government as of 2024. As such, it should be deemed as a provisional, non-binding estimation. The definitive allocation will be determined by the election decree at the time of the parliament's dissolution. ^[11]
4. José Luis Ábalos, former PSOE legislator. ^[19]
5. ERC (3 senators) and EH Bildu (4 senators) joined the IPLI alliance ahead of the 2023 Senate election.

References

1. "Spanish elections: Uncertainty hangs over future government". Euronews. 24 July 2023. Retrieved 24 July 2023.
2. Pérez, Miriam (23 July 2023). "El escenario que no se puede descartar: un bloqueo tras el 23J y una repetición electoral para enero de 2024" (in Spanish). Business Insider. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
3. Monrosi, José Enrique; Ortiz, Alberto (16 November 2023). "Pedro Sánchez es investido presidente del Gobierno con más apoyos que en 2020". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 November 2023.
4. Const. Esp. (1978) , tit. III, ch. I, art. 66.
5. "Sinopsis artículo 66". Constitución española (in Spanish). Congress of Deputies . Retrieved 12 September 2020, summarizing Const. Esp. (1978) , tit. III, ch. I, art. 66.
6. LOREG (1985) , tit. I, ch. I, art. 2.
7. Carreras de Odriozola & Tafunell Sambola 2005, p. 1077.
8. Const. Esp. (1978) , tit. III, ch. I, art. 68.
9. LOREG (1985) , tit. II, ch. III, art. 162–164.
10. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
11. "Real Decreto 1085/2023, de 5 de diciembre, por el que se declaran oficiales las cifras de población resultantes de la revisión del Padrón municipal referidas al 1 de enero de 2023". Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 April 2024.
12. Const. Esp. (1978) , tit. III, ch. I, art. 69.
13. LOREG (1985) , tit. II, ch. III, art. 162 & 165–166.
14. LOREG (1985) , tit. I, ch. V, art. 42.
15. Const. Esp. (1978) , tit. IV, art. 99.
16. "Grupos Parlamentarios en el Congreso de los Diputados y el Senado". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
17. "Composición del Senado 1977-2024". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
18. "Grupos parlamentarios". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 August 2023.
19. "El exministro José Luis Ábalos mantendrá su escaño en el Congreso" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.
20. "Grupos Parlamentarios desde 1977". Senate of Spain (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 July 2020.
21. LOREG (1985) , tit. I, ch. VI, art. 44 & tit. II, ch. V, art. 169.
22. LOREG (1985) , add. prov. 7.
23. "Pedro Sánchez anuncia que se presentará a la reelección como secretario general del PSOE: "Tengo un proyecto de futuro para España"" (in Spanish). Madrid: Cadena SER. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
24. "Yolanda Díaz dimite como líder de Sumar tras los resultados de las europeas". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 10 June 2024. Retrieved 11 June 2024.
25. "Los cinco diputados de Podemos abandonan el grupo parlamentario de Sumar y se unen al grupo mixto" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.

Bibliography

• Constitución Española (Spanish Constitution). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Vol. 311. 29 December 1978 [version as of 17 February 2024]. ISSN   0212-033X. BOE-A-1978-31229. Retrieved 27 December 2016.
• Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5/1985). Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Vol. 147. 19 June 1985 [version as of 2 February 2024]. ISSN   0212-033X. BOE-A-1985-11672. Retrieved 23 April 2024.
• Carreras de Odriozola, Albert; Tafunell Sambola, Xavier (2005) [1989]. Estadísticas históricas de España, siglos XIX-XX (PDF) (in Spanish). Vol. 1 (II ed.). Bilbao: Fundación BBVA. pp. 1072–1097. ISBN   84-96515-00-1. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015.