Meteorological history of Hurricane Katrina

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On August 26, it became clear to forecasters at the NHC that Katrina was tracking significantly more west of the originally expected landfall in the Florida Panhandle. They shifted their forecast path 170 mi (275 km) west during the afternoon to the Mississippi/Alabama border and further to Louisiana and Mississippi that night. NHC director Max Mayfield called "[the one] we’ve been talking about all of these years," [23] referencing the long-talked of worst-case scenario for New Orleans called "The Big One". [51] Mayfield personally called the governors of Louisiana and Mississippi emphasizing the catastrophic threat the storm posed, something he had only done once before in his 33-year career. By the morning of August 27, forecasters anticipated a direct hit on New Orleans. [23] Following the westward shift, the NHC's forecasts were "exceptionally accurate and consistent". Landfall as a major hurricane was accurately pegged three days ahead of time. Track forecast errors were less than half of the 10-year average for 2005. Four- to five-day errors were slightly larger than the shorter-term overall; however, this was largely related to the west-southwest track shift across the Florida Panhandle rather than Katrina's path in the days leading up to landfall along the Gulf Coast. [52]

Storm surge

Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic storm surge caused near-total destruction of coastal communities (damage in Pass Christian, Mississippi, pictured). FEMA - 17187 - Photograph by John Fleck taken on 10-04-2005 in Mississippi.jpg
Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic storm surge caused near-total destruction of coastal communities (damage in Pass Christian, Mississippi, pictured).

Hurricane Katrina produced a catastrophic storm surge across coastal Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The largest surge occurred in the right-front quadrant of the hurricane in Mississippi. Though the total destruction of buildings and infrastructure in coastal communities made post-storm assessments of surge heights difficult, a maximum high water mark of 27.8 ft (8.5 m) was found in Pass Christian. [53] This was the largest storm surge observed in modern history in the United States. [54] Farther east, surge heights reached 17 to 22 ft (5.2 to 6.7 m) in eastern Mississippi and 10 to 15 ft (3.0 to 4.6 m) in Alabama. Seawater penetrated as much as 6 mi (9.7 km) inland on beaches and up to 12 mi (19 km) inland along bays and rivers. [53] The hurricane's massive storm surge is attributed to its intensity the day prior and immense size, with its weakening prior to landfall having little effect. Northward swells propagated ahead of the hurricane and enhanced water levels. [26] The hurricane's perpendicular movement toward the coast across the shallow continental shelf further enhanced the surge. [55] A National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy anchored 74 mi (119 km) south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, measured a peak significant wave height of 55 ft (17 m). This was the largest such measurement from a NDBC buoy on record. [26] Another buoy south of Horn Island measured a peak wave height of 10.73 m (35.2 ft). [56] The Mars oil platform designed to withstand winds of 140 mph (230 km/h) and waves up to 70 ft (21 m)sustained extensive damage as the eastern eyewall of Katrina passed over it. In a 2008 study by Wang and Oey, a wave height hindcast simulated maximum wave heights of 79 ft (24 m) in the region of the platform. [57] On the west side of the eye, northerly winds generated significant water rises along the south shores of Lake Pontchartrain. Surge heights reached 14 to 19 ft (4.3 to 5.8 m) in New Orleans, St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes. New Orleans' levee system was overwhelmed by the rising waters, with overtopping occurring in many locations. This overtopping subsequently undermined the backside of the levees and caused their failure. The ensuing floods ultimately inundated 80 percent of New Orleans, with flood waters persisting until October 11. [53]

Prior to Katrina, little emphasis was placed on the size of a hurricane in relation to the storm surge it would produce. Subsequent studies spurred by Katrina's devastation found significant correlation between storm size and surge. A 2008 study published in the Journal of Physical Oceanography found that surge values could differ as much as 30 percent of storms with similar intensities but different sizes. The paper asserted that the Saffir–Simpson scale was not a good indicator of coastal surge. [58] As a direct result of Katrina and subsequent storms which produced large storm surges, the NHC revised the SSHS in 2010 to remove expected surge values and created a new product to convey forecast surge heights. [59] [60] [61] A 2014 study published in Earth Interactions showed strong correlation between the radius of a system's storm- and hurricane-force winds 18 hours before landfall and storm surge heights. [62]

Tornado outbreak and dissipation

A map of preliminary tornado reports from August 25 to 30 across the Eastern United States. Hurricane Katrina preliminary tornado reports.png
A map of preliminary tornado reports from August 25 to 30 across the Eastern United States.

Throughout Katrina's progression across the United States, it produced a significant tornado outbreak with 57 tornadoes touching down across 8 states from August 26 to 31. The strongest of these were rated F2 on the Fujita scale: one on August 26 and five on August 29. [65] Most of the tornadoes occurred in the hurricane's right-front quadrant, where strong low-level wind shear, high moisture content, and low convective available potential energy combined to produce locally favorable tornadic conditions. [66] The most prolific activity occurred on August 29 with 39 confirmed tornadoes; 18 of these were in Georgia, a daily record in the state for the month of August. [67] A study published in 2008 documented 23  supercells in the six hours leading up to Katrina's landfall in Louisiana. [66] Localized winds within mesovortices may have reached Category 4 hurricane-equivalent intensity. Contrary to previous studies, the majority of these remained over water. [64]

Once onshore, Katrina rapidly weakened as it traversed Mississippi. Its winds subsided below hurricane-force by 00:00 UTC on August 30 as its center passed northwest of Meridian. [68] Interaction with an upstream trough caused Katrina to turn northeast across the Tennessee Valley and Ohio River Valley on August 30. [3] [68] The storm degraded to a tropical depression by 12:00 UTC. [68] Strong westerly shear produced by the trough caused Katrina's upper-level anticyclone to break east away from the low-level circulation on August 30. This led to the separation of the storm's low-level warm core which continued northeast and almost instantaneously transitioned into an extratropical cyclone that day as colder air wrapped in from the northwest. [69] The NHC assessed Katrina's dissipation as a distinct entity by 12:00 UTC on August 31 as it was absorbed into the aforementioned trough over central Ohio. [1] The remnants of Katrina continued across Pennsylvania and New York, eventually crossing the St. Lawrence River into southeastern Canada on September 1. [3] A stationary low over James Bay caused ex-Katrina to turn north and meander over Quebec for several days. [3] [69] The storm deepened slightly during this time, with its central pressure falling by 10 mbar (hPa; 0.29 inHg), though its winds did not increase. [69] By September 3, the system acquired a more northeasterly to easterly heading, crossing over Newfoundland and Labrador and then emerging over the Labrador Sea on September 4. [70] The degrading system continued east and ultimately dissipated off the southern tip of Greenland on September 7. [3]

The anticyclone that separated from Katrina on August 30 in conjunction with the frontal boundary that the hurricane merged with had expansive impacts on weather across the Northern Hemisphere over the next two weeks. [71] The interaction of those systems created an upper-level pool of warm air that traveled east-northeast from the Southeastern United States on September 2, to the Azores on September 6, to northern Europe on September 9, and finally to the Tibetan Plateau on September 12 where it dissipated. [72] Northerly flow of tropical moisture and vorticity related to this system influenced the development of Hurricane Nate and the intensification of Hurricane Maria over the Central Atlantic. [73]

Notes

  1. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Cyclone Report and HURDAT listing from 2005 and 2006, respectively, for Hurricane Katrina list its dissipation date as August 31. [1] [2] However, a subsequent paper published in the Monthly Weather Review in 2007 states that Katrina's remnants persisted until September 7. [3]
  2. The National Hurricane Center has specific rules regarding the reformation of tropical cyclones. When a former tropical cyclone reorganizes sufficiently to be reclassified as a tropical cyclone and is still within its basin of origin, its original number and name are kept upon the re-issuance of advisories. This occurred with Hurricane Ivan in 2004 which maintained a distinct low-level circulation after becoming extratropical and later regenerating into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico. [7] [8] If a system crosses out of its basin of origin or is significantly influenced by other systems, it is reclassified as a separate cyclone. This is the case with Tropical Depression Ten and Hurricane Katrina. [6] [8] [7]
  3. According to Shay et al. (2000), OHC values of 50 kJ cm–2 or greater support the intensificaton of hurricanes. [13]
  4. The Saffir–Simpson scale as used in 2005 consisted of sustained winds, central pressures, and expected storm surge values. This scale was modified in 2010 to only encompass winds, now being called the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. [21]
  5. Katrina's minimum pressure was only surpassed by Gilbert in 1988 (888 mbar (hPa; 26.22 inHg)), the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (892 mbar (hPa; 26.34 inHg)), Allen in 1980 (899 mbar (hPa; 26.55 inHg)), and Camille in 1969 (900 mbar (hPa; 26.58 inHg)). [2] [39] In the Gulf of Mexico specifically, only Camille was stronger. [2] Katrina was soon surpassed the same year by Rita the following month (895 mbar (hPa; 26.43 inHg)) [42] —Rita became the strongest storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico—and Wilma in October (882 mbar (hPa; 26.04 inHg)). [39]
  6. Katrina's pressure was later eclipsed by Hurricane Michael in 2018 which made landfall near Panama City, Florida, with a central pressure of 919 mbar (hPa; 27.14 inHg). [48]
  7. The map of preliminary reports does not take into account storm surveys and possible duplicate reports. The totals listed on the map differ from the final tally accordingly. The red shaded region on the map indicates locations that likely experienced wind gusts of 113 mph (182 km/h) or higher; [63] the scale of hurricane-related damage in these areas may have led to tornadoes being missed in post-storm surveys. [64]

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Meteorological history of Hurricane Iota</span>

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Sources

Further reading

Hurricane Katrina
Katrina 2005 path.png
Track of Hurricane Katrina