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The Dry Corridor or Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a tropical dry forest region on the Pacific Coast of Central America. [1] This area, which extends from southern Mexico to Panama, is extremely vulnerable to climate change due to much of the population living in rural areas and in poverty, and thus dependent on grain crops for their livelihood. [2]
Particularly vulnerable to climate change are the areas of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. [3] [4] Since 2001, these areas have suffered from irregular drought patterns due to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). [5] [6] During an El Niño event in 2009 (the year the term “Dry Corridor” was penned), it is estimated that 50-100% of crops in these regions were affected by the water deficit, and between 2014 and 2016, millions of people in the dry corridor needed food aid due to drought during this period, which resulted in losses of the corn crop. [7] [8] By 2018, it was estimated that at least 25% of households in the region experienced food insecurity. [9] As a result, relief agencies have been advised to take a “Food first” response when addressing this crisis, focusing initially on areas at highest risk of food insecurity. [10]
Drought impact has been especially severe in Honduras [11] and Guatemala. [12]
2019 was the fifth straight year of drought, [13] and the "second consecutive year of failed yields for subsistence farmers." [14] The climate has been becoming hotter and drier, agricultural pests are increasing, spring rains are decreasing or absent, and floods have become heavier. [13] [15] [16]
Approximately 8% of families in the region report that they plan to migrate in an attempt to improve their situations, with the increase in emigration of “500% between 2010 and 2015.” [17] [18] Up to 4 million climate change migrants from Central America and Mexico are projected by 2050, according to a World Bank report, if measures are not taken to prevent climate change and adapt agricultural practices. [13] Migrants typically first travel to nearby urban areas, with fewer continuing north to Mexico, and fewer still traveling all the way to the USA border. [19]
Climate migration such as that seen in the Dry Corridor is one of the sources of conflict at the US-Mexico border. In the US, Donald Trump has described migrations as “‘invasions’ of ‘gang members and very bad people,’” despite the US commissioner of the US Customs and border protection citing “crop failure” as a main driver. [15] Complicating this strained relationship is the fact that the “US has done more than any other country to cause global warming,” and thus are at least somewhat responsible for the conditions of these migrants. [15]
Improvement in the region will need to be addressed from multiple angles, including providing short-term food security and assistance, addressing climate change on a global scale, and sustainable development initiatives to promote robust crop production in these areas facing new climates. [20]
The economy of Guatemala is a considered a developing economy, highly dependent on agriculture, particularly on traditional crops such as coffee, sugar, and bananas. Guatemala's GDP per capita is roughly one-third of Brazil's. The Guatemalan economy is the largest in Central America. It grew 3.3 percent on average from 2015 to 2018. However, Guatemala remains one of the poorest countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, having highly unequal incomes and chronically malnourished children. The country is beset by political insecurity, and lacks skilled workers and infrastructure. It depends on remittances for nearly one-tenth of the GDP.
Honduras is a country in Central America. Honduras borders the Caribbean Sea and the North Pacific Ocean. Guatemala lies to the west, Nicaragua south east and El Salvador to the south west. Honduras is the second largest Central American republic, with a total area of 112,777 square kilometres (43,543 sq mi).
A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions. A drought can last for days, months or years. Drought often has large impacts on the ecosystems and agriculture of affected regions, and causes harm to the local economy. Annual dry seasons in the tropics significantly increase the chances of a drought developing, with subsequent increased wildfire risks. Heat waves can significantly worsen drought conditions by increasing evapotranspiration. This dries out forests and other vegetation, and increases the amount of fuel for wildfires.
Guatemala is mountainous, except for the south coastal area and the vast northern lowlands of Petén department. The country is located in Central America and bounded to the north and west by Mexico, to the east by Belize and by the Gulf of Honduras, to the east by Honduras, to the southeast by El Salvador, and to the south by the Pacific Ocean. Two mountain chains enter Guatemala from west to east, dividing the country into three major regions: the highlands, where the mountains are located; the Pacific coast, south of the mountains; and the limestone plateau of the Petén region, north of the mountains. These areas vary in climate, elevation, and landscape, providing dramatic contrasts between hot and humid tropical lowlands and highland peaks and valleys.
El Rosario is a town and a municipality in the west of the Honduran department of Olancho.
Worldwide more human beings gain their livelihood from agriculture than any other endeavor; the majority are self-employed subsistence farmers living in the tropics. While growing food for local consumption is the core of tropical agriculture, cash crops are also included in the definition.
Soconusco is a region in the southwest corner of the state of Chiapas in Mexico along its border with Guatemala. It is a narrow strip of land wedged between the Sierra Madre de Chiapas mountains and the Pacific Ocean. It is the southernmost part of the Chiapas coast extending south from the Ulapa River to the Suchiate River, distinguished by its history and economic production. Abundant moisture and volcanic soil has always made it rich for agriculture, contributing to the flowering of the Mokaya and Olmec cultures, which were based on Theobroma cacao and rubber of Castilla elastica.
Drought in Australia is defined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as rainfall over period greater than three-months being in the lowest decile of what has been recorded for that region in the past. This definition takes into account that drought is a relative term and rainfall deficiencies need to be compared to typical rainfall patterns including seasonal variations. Specifically, drought in Australia is defined in relation to a rainfall deficiency of pastoral leases and is determined by decile analysis applied to a certain area. Note that this definition uses rainfall only because long-term records are widely available across most of Australia. However, it does not take into account other variables that might be important for establishing surface water balance, such as evaporation and condensation.
Drought has resulted in millions of deaths in India over the years. Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on the country's climate: a favorable monsoon is critical to securing water for irrigating India's crops. In parts of India, failure of the monsoons causes water shortages, resulting in poor yields. This is particularly true of major drought-prone regions southeastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Telangana, and Rajasthan.
Water resources management in El Salvador is characterized by difficulties in addressing severe water pollution throughout much of the country's surface waters due to untreated discharges of agricultural, domestic and industrial run off. The river that drains the capital city of San Salvador is considered to be polluted beyond the capability of most treatment procedures.
Climate change in Mexico is expected to have widespread impacts: with significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperatures. This will put pressure on the economy, people and the biodiversity of many parts of the country, which have largely arid or hot climates. Already climate change has impacted agriculture, biodiversity, farmer livelihoods, and migration, as well as water, health, air pollution, traffic disruption from floods, and housing vulnerability to landslides.
Guatemalan migrants are the 10th largest migrant group in the United States of America., and the 3rd largest immigrant group from Central America. The 2015 American Community Survey estimates the Guatemalan American migrant population at 1,300,000, which is roughly 3% of the US foreign born population, and 0.4% of the total population of the United States. Of this group, the majority live in California, New York, Florida, and Texas. Roughly one quarter of Guatemalan Migrants reside in Anaheim County, California alone. A majority of these migrants are men; according to 2015 American Community Survey, roughly 57% of all Guatemalan Migrants are male. They also tend to be younger, with 86% falling between the ages of 18 and 65. In comparison, approximately 60% of the native born population and 80% of the foreign born population are in the same age range. Of the 650,000 (62.5%) Guatemalan migrants in the labor market, approximately one third are employed in the service sector.
Central American migrant caravans, also known as the Viacrucis del migrante, are migrant caravans that travel from Central America to the Mexico–United States border to demand asylum in the United States. The largest and best known of these were organized by Pueblo Sin Fronteras that set off during Holy Week in early 2017 and 2018 from the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA), but such caravans of migrants began arriving several years earlier, and other unrelated caravans continued to arrive into late 2018.
The Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA) is a term used in the United States to refer collectively to the three Central American countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. The term is used with respect to the countries' economic integration, and their shared challenges, including widespread poverty, violence, and corruption, which have prompted many to become refugees fleeing the three nations.
The 2018–2021 Southern Africa drought was a period of drought that took place in Southern Africa. The drought began in late October 2018, and negatively affected food security in the region. In mid-August 2019, the drought was classified as a level 2 Red-Class event by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. The alert level was reduced to the Orange-1.7 by 12 December 2019, as the new wet season had started. In September 2020, the drought was classified as a level 2 Red-Class event. The drought continued into early 2021. Beginning in October 2021, South Africa experienced above average rainfall and reservoirs refilled by early 2022.
Climate change in Guatemala is a serious issue as Guatemala is considered one of 10 nations most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In 2010, Guatemala "ranked second in the world on the Global Climate Risk Index, which indicates the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events." Both commercial agricultural production and subsistence farming have declined, and thus subsistence farmers find it more difficult to find work as day laborers when their own harvests fail. About 300,000 subsistence farmers reported crop loss due to drought in 2018. About half of Guatemala's workforce is in the agricultural sector. Poor crop yields due to climate change have been identified as a factor in migration to the United States.
Climate change in Honduras is a major challenge for Honduras as it is one of the countries which is most at risk from climate change. The frequency of natural disasters in Honduras, such as floods, mudslides, tropical storms and hurricanes, is expected to increase as climate change intensifies. Over 40 percent of Hondurans work in the agricultural sector, which is impacted by increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall. However, agriculture could be dramatically impacted, which can hurt certain households in Honduras. Sanitation and food access is a major issue that is increasing due to climate change, as well as the loss of habitats for several endangered organisms.
Climate migration is a subset of climate-related mobility that refers to movement driven by the impact of sudden or gradual climate-exacerbated disasters, such as "abnormally heavy rainfalls, prolonged droughts, desertification, environmental degradation, or sea-level rise and cyclones". Gradual shifts in the environment tend to impact more people than sudden disasters. The majority of climate migrants move internally within their own countries, though a smaller number of climate-displaced people also move across national borders.
The Partnership for Central America (PCA) is a public–private partnership focused on economic development in the Northern Triangle of Central America to address the economic roots of migration with job creation and social programs. The Partnership is a registered 501(c)3 non-profit organization that was launched in May 2021 with Vice President Kamala Harris in support of the White House Call to Action to the Private Sector to Deepen Investment in the Northern Triangle.
Climate change in Africa is reducing its food security. Climate change at the global, continental, and sub-continental levels has been observed to include an increase in air and ocean temperatures, sea-level rise, a decrease in snow and ice extent, an increase and decrease in precipitation, changes in terrestrial and marine biological systems, and ocean acidification. The agricultural industry is responsible for more than 60% of full time employment in Africa. Millions of people in Africa depend on the agricultural industry for their economic well-being and means of subsistence. A variety of climate change-related factors such as worsening pests and diseases that damage agriculture and livestock, altered rainfall patterns, rising temperatures, droughts, and floods are having a negative impact on the agricultural industry in Africa. Many African populations access to food is being impacted by these climate change effects on the agricultural industry, which result in a trend of decreasing crop yields, animal losses, and rising food prices.