Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018

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Nominee Charlie Baker Jay Gonzalez Party Republican Democratic Running mate Karyn Polito Quentin Palfrey Popular vote 1,781,341 885,770 Percentage 66.6% 33.1%

Unofficial municipal results

Governor before election Charlie Baker Republican Elected Governor Charlie Baker Republican

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v t e

The 2018 Massachusetts gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito sought reelection to a second term in office, facing Democratic challengers Jay Gonzalez and Quentin Palfrey, respectively. Candidates were selected in the primary election held on September 4, 2018.

Shortly after polls closed at 8 p.m. local time, the Associated Press declared the race in favor of incumbents Baker and Polito. ^[1] Shortly after 9 p.m. location time, Gonzalez conceded the election. ^[2]

Baker was reelected with the highest vote total in the history of Massachusetts gubernatorial elections and by the widest margin since Bill Weld was reelected governor in 1994.

Background

Charlie Baker was elected in 2014 by a slim margin over then-Attorney General Martha Coakley, however he has consistently rated as one of the most popular governors in the country. ^[3] Some Democrats, including Congressman Mike Capuano and Speaker of the House Bob DeLeo publicly speculated they may vote for Baker over the eventual Democratic nominee. ^[4] Speculated candidates such as Attorney General Maura Healey, Congressman Joe Kennedy, former State Senator Dan Wolf, and Boston Mayor Marty Walsh all declined to be candidates, leaving no prominent Democrats to challenge Baker, which was seen as a necessary prerequiste to mount a formidable challenge to him.

Because Evan Falchuk received more than 3% of the vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election, the United Independent Party gained official status. ^[5] Falchuck had stated that he would "certainly" run for office in 2018. ^[6] In 2016 however, the UIP lost its official party status after it failed to register 1% of Massachusetts voters as members. ^[7] Evan Falchuk later left the UIP and registered as a Democrat in early 2017. ^{[8] [9]}

Republican primary

Some conservative members of the Republican Party have stated that the Governor could face a Republican challenger in 2018 if he is too moderate. GOP state committeeman Robert Cappucci told the Boston Herald that if Baker "shuns conservatives [...] there will be 100 percent an effort to try to find a conservative, viable candidate to challenge him in 2018 for governor". David Kopacz, the president of the Massachusetts Republican Assembly, has also stated that Baker may face a conservative challenger in 2018. ^[10]

Following his 2016 election, Barnstable County Commissioner Ron Beaty, who once was tried and convicted for threatening the life of President George H. W. Bush, ^[11] has been making local and state headlines. He's proposed a "shark mitigation strategy" to combat the growing presence of sharks near Cape Cod beaches by baiting and shooting them, which was rejected for consideration by the commission chairman. He has also mulled a primary run against his State Representative Randy Hunt, after Hunt parked in his Barnstable County Courthouse parking spot. In September, 2017 he announced he was in the process of changing the purpose of his campaign committee from a county to a statewide office. He cites the Governor's criticisms of President Donald Trump and his willingness to work with Democrats as his inspiration to run. ^[12] On December 8, 2017 Scott Lively announced his campaign. ^[13]

As of December 13, 2017 Beaty has stated he is no longer considering a run against Baker. ^[14] Scott Lively, an evangelical pastor, has challenged Baker and received more than the 15% of delegate votes necessary at the state convention to qualify for ballot access. Baker won the endorsement of the party by an overwhelming margin. ^[15]

Baker ultimately won the nomination, but not without Lively securing over a third of the primary vote, leading to speculation that Baker's more moderate disposition and opposition to President Trump may damage his general election chances with Republican base voters. ^[16]

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Charlie Baker, incumbent Governor ^[17]
• Scott Lively, pastor and independent candidate for Governor in 2014 ^[18]

Declined

• Ron Beaty, Barnstable County Commissioner (running for State Representative, endorsed Lively) ^[12]

Endorsements

Charlie Baker
Local officials Sefatia Romeo Theken, Mayor of Gloucester [19] Organizations Massachusetts Republican Party Newspapers Boston Herald [20] The Boston Globe [21]

Scott Lively
Local officials Ron Beaty, Barnstable County Commissioner and candidate for State Representative [12]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Charlie Baker	Scott Lively	Other	Undecided
MassINC	June 22–25, 2018	399	± 4.9%	70%	17%	2%	10%

Results

Convention

Republican convention vote, April 28 ^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Charlie Baker (incumbent)	1,577	69.8%
	Republican	Scott Lively	626	27.7%
	Republican	Other	57	2.5%
Total votes			2,260	100.0%

Primary

Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality

Republican gubernatorial primary results by county:

  Baker—60–70%

  Baker—50–60%

Republican primary, September 4 ^[22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Charlie Baker (incumbent)	174,126	63.78%
	Republican	Scott Lively	98,421	36.05%
	n/a	All others	464	0.17%
Total votes			273,011	100.00%

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Karyn Polito, incumbent Lieutenant Governor ^[17]

Results

Republican lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:

  Polito—>90%

Republican primary results ^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Karyn Polito (incumbent)	204,914	98.8
	n/a	All others	2,571	1.2
Total votes			207,485	100.0

Democratic primary

In November 2014, after interviewing over a dozen Democratic operatives, strategists, and activists, Joshua Miller of The Boston Globe wrote that the party would be looking for a young, fresh candidate who can appeal to the party's progressive base. He identified Attorney General Maura Healey as being "the first name on many Democratic lists". ^[24] Samantha Lachman of The Huffington Post also identified Healey as a potential candidate for Governor in 2018 or in a future United States Senate race. ^[25]

As of July 2017, the declared candidates are relatively unknown to the state's voters. ^[26] Their identification by Democratic voters was bolstered by addressing the 2017 state Democratic Convention, which saw its largest attendance of around 3,000 delegates in years. ^[27]

On April 26, 2018 Setti Warren announced via Facebook that he was withdrawing from the race due to financial concerns. He stated he would not endorse either of his former opponents until the nomination is won. ^[28]

At the Massachusetts Democratic Convention in June, party delegates endorsed Gonzalez and Palfrey, but Bob Massie and Jimmy Tingle also surpassed the 15% threshold for ballot access by comfortable margins. ^[29] A poll from late June conducted by WBUR and MassInc. indicated that the contest for the Democratic nomination in the gubernatorial race is a toss-up, with Massie and Gonzalez being separated by a percentage smaller than the margin of error.

Gonzalez and Palfrey went on to win their respective nominations generously (winning almost every municipality in the state) and are headed into the general election to face their Republican counterparts.

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Jay Gonzalez, private health insurance executive, corporate lawyer, former State Secretary of Administration and Finance ^[30]
• Bob Massie, co-founder of the Global Reporting Initiative, former executive director of Ceres, former president of the New Economy Coalition, ordained Episcopal minister, nominee for lieutenant governor in 1994, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 ^{[31] [32]}

Withdrew

• Setti Warren, former Mayor of Newton and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 ^{[33] [28]}

Declined

• Joe Avellone, businessman, former chairman of the Wellesley Board of selectmen and candidate for governor in 2014 ^[34]
• Jeff Bussgang, venture capitalist and lecturer at Harvard Business School ^{[24] [35]}
• Katherine Clark, U.S. Representative (running for reelection) ^[36]
• Evan Falchuk, founder and former chair of the United Independent Party and United Independent nominee for Governor in 2014 ^[37]
• Maura Healey, Massachusetts Attorney General (running for reelection) ^{[24] [25] [38] [39]}
• John Kerry, former United States Secretary of State, former U.S. Senator, former lieutenant governor of Massachusetts and nominee for president in 2004 ^{[40] [41]}
• Paul Mark, State Representative ^[42] (endorsed Jay Gonzalez)
• Marty Meehan, President of the University of Massachusetts System and former U.S. Representative ^[43]
• Seth Moulton, U.S. Representative (running for reelection) ^[44]
• Dan Wolf, businessman and former State Senator ^{[45] [46]}

Endorsements

Jay Gonzalez

State-Wide Elected Officials Suzanne Bump, Auditor of Massachusetts Steve Grossman, former Treasurer and Receiver-General of Massachusetts and former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee [47] State legislators Harriette Chandler, State Senate President emerita [48] Barbara L'Italien, State Senator [49] Jamie Eldridge, State Senator [50] Julian Cyr, State Senator [51] Eric Lesser, State Senator [52] William Brownsberger, State Senator [53] Michael O. Moore, State Senator [48] Anne Gobi, State Senator [48] John Scibak, State Representative [54] Paul Tucker, State Representative Sean Garballey, State Representative Tricia Farley-Bouvier, State Representative [55] Sarah Peake, State Representative [51] Dylan Fernandes, State Representative [51] Mary Keefe, State Representative [56] Paul Mark, State Representative [56] James O'Day, State Representative [48] John Mahoney, State Representative [48] Daniel Donahue, State Representative [48] Mary Keefe, State Representative [48] Natalie Higgins, State Representative [48] Local elected officials Michelle Wu, At-Large Boston City Councilor, former Boston City Council President [57] Candy F. Mero-Carlson, Worchester City Councilor [48] Khrystian King, Worcester City Councilor [48] Sean Rose, Worchester City Councilor [48] Molly McCullough, Worcester School Committee Member [48] Dante Comparetto, Worcester School Committee Member [48] Individuals Kate Donaghue, DNC and Massachusetts DSC Member [58] Labor unions National Association of Government Employees [59] Organizations Progressive Democrats of Massachusetts [60] Massachusetts Democratic Party [61] Newspapers Boston Globe [62]

Setti Warren (withdrew)
Officials Michael Dukakis, former Governor of Massachusetts and Democratic nominee for President in 1988 [63] David Narkewicz, Mayor of Northampton [64] Solomon Goldstein-Rose, State Representative [65] Organizations Democracy for America [66]

Bob Massie

State legislators Michelle DuBois, State Representative Michael Moran, State Representative Dave Rogers, State Representative Matt Patrick, former State Representative Local elected officals Barbara Brousal-Glaser, Newton City Councilor Jesse Clingan, Somerville Alderman Matthew Cubetus, Vice Chair of the Sandwich Planning Board and candidate for the Barnstable County Assembly of Delegates Joseph Curtatone, Mayor of Somerville Jan Devereux, Vice Mayor of Cambridge Ben Ewen-Campen, Somerville Alderman Andre Green, Somerville School Committeeman Stephanie Hirsch, Somerville Alderman Gary Mannion Jr., Greater Lawrence Technical School Committee member and Lawrence Democratic City Committee Chair Nadeem Mazen, former Cambridge City Councillor Alison Leary, Newton City Councilor Wilfred Mbah, Somerville Alderman John Michitson, Haverhill City Council President Quinton Zondervan, Cambridge City Councillor Party officials Jim Sperelakis, West Newbury Democratic Town Committee Chair Solomon Steen, Young Democrats of Massachusetts Public Policy Director Parwez Wahid, Massachusetts DSC member Individuals Chuck Collins, senior scholar at the Institute for Policy Studies Frances Crowe, activist Todd Gitlin, professor of journalism and sociology at Columbia University and former president of Students for a Democratic Society Gabe Itoka, entrepreneur Bill McKibben, author, educator, environmentalist, and Co-founder of 350.org Juliet Schor, professor of sociology at Boston College Reverend Leslie Sterling, of St. Bartholomew's Episcopal Church Laurence Tribe, professor of constitutional law at Harvard Law School Joe Uehlein, former AFL–CIO Director of Strategic Campaigns Julie Wormser, former Boston Harbor Association Executive Director Labor unions United Auto Workers Region 9A Organizations 350 Action [67] Our Revolution Our Revolution Massachusetts (ORMA) [68] Massachusetts Peace Action [69] Newspapers Boston Herald [20] Blue Mass Group

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Gonzalez	Bob Massie	Other	Undecided
MassINC	June 22–25, 2018	418	± 4.9%	21%	15%	7%	52%

Results

Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality

Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county:

  Gonzalez—70–80%

  Gonzalez—60–70%

  Gonzalez—50–60%

Democratic primary results ^[70]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Gonzalez	348,434	63.17
	Democratic	Bob Massie	192,404	34.88
	n/a	All others	10,742	1.95
Total votes			551,580	100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Quentin Palfrey, former senior advisor to the president for jobs & competitiveness ^[71]
• Jimmy Tingle, humorist and activist ^[72]

Declined

• Paul Mark, State Representative ^[42]
• Patrick McDermott, Norfolk County Register of Probate ^[73]
• Jon Mitchell, Mayor of New Bedford ^[73]
• Matt O'Malley, Boston City Councilor ^[73]
• Ayanna Pressley, Boston City Councilor (running for MA-7)

Endorsements

Quentin Palfrey

National figures Gary Locke, former U.S. Ambassador to China and former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ken Salazar, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior State legislators Will Brownsberger, State Senator Cynthia Creem, State Senate Majority Leader Bill Driscoll, State Representative Jamie Eldridge, State Senator Tricia Farley-Bouvier, State Representative Dylan Fernandes, State Representative Cindy Friedman, State Senator Anne Gobi, State Senator Jon Hecht, State Representative Natalie Higgins, State Representative Adam Hinds, State Senator Russell Holmes, State Representative Eric Lesser, State Senator Jack Patrick Lewis, State Representative Paul Tucker, State Representative Local elected officials Matthew Cubetus, Vice Chair of the Sandwich Planning Board and candidate for the Barnstable County Assembly of Delegates Sabrina Heisey, candidate for State Representative in the 36th Middlesex District Steve Kerrigan, Massachusetts DSC member and 2014 nominee for Lieutenant Governor David Narkewicz, Mayor of Northampton Organizations Ashby Democratic Town Committee Boston Ward 5 Democratic Committee Indivisible Acton Indivisible Northampton Massachusetts Democratic Party Progressive Democrats of Massachusetts Progressive Massachusetts Unions American Federation of Teachers-Massachusetts National Association of Social Workers-Massachusetts (NASW-MA PACE)

Jimmy Tingle
Federal legislators Barney Frank, former U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 4th congressional district Jim McGovern, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district State legislators Sarah Peake, state representative Mike Connolly, state representative

Results

Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial primary results by county:

  Palfrey—70–80%

  Palfrey—60–70%

  Palfrey—50–60%

  Tingle—40–50%

Democratic primary results ^[74]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Quentin Palfrey	307,240	58.5
	Democratic	Jimmy Tingle	214,204	40.8
	n/a	All others	3,757	0.4
Total votes			525,201	100.0

General election

Debates

• Complete video of first debate, October 9, 2018
• Complete video of second debate, October 17, 2018
• Complete video of third debate, November 1, 2018

Endorsements

All individuals belong to the nominee's party unless otherwise specificed.

Charlie Baker

State legislators Christopher Markey, State Representative (D) [75] David Nangle, State Representative (D) [76] Local officials Brian Arrigo, Mayor of Revere (D) [77] Bill Carpenter, Mayor of Brockton (I) [77] Jasiel Correia, Mayor of Fall River (D) [77] Stephen DiNatale, Mayor of Fitchburg (D) [77] Scott Galvin, Mayor of Woburn (D) [77] Ken Gray, Mayor of Amesbury [77] Mark Hawke, Mayor of Gardner [77] Donna Holaday, Mayor of Newburyport (D) [77] Bob Hedlund, Mayor of Weymouth [77] Tom Koch, Mayor of Quincy (I) [77] Richard Kos, Mayor of Chicopee [77] William Martin, Mayor of Greenfield (I) [77] Dean Mazzarella, Mayor of Leominster (I) [77] Will Reichelt, Mayor of West Springfield (I) [77] Daniel Rivera, Mayor of Lawrence (D) [77] Will Samaras, Mayor of Lowell (D) [77] William Sapelli, Mayor of Agawam (I) [77] Domenic Sarno, Mayor of Springfield (D) [77] Brian Sullivan, Mayor of Westfield (D) [77] Joe Sullivan, Mayor of Braintree (D) [77] Sefatia Romeo Theken, Mayor of Gloucester (I) [19] Arthur Vigeant, Mayor of Marlborough [77] Dave Conway, Lowell City Councilor [76] John Leahy, Lowell City Councilor [76] Rita Mercier, Lowell City Councilor [76] Organizations Everytown for Gun Safety [78] Newspapers The Boston Globe [79] Boston Herald [80] The Sun [81] Sentinel & Enterprise [81] The Chelsea Record [82] Cape Cod Times [83] The Republican [84] Telegram & Gazette [85] The Eagle-Tribune [86] The Salem News [86] The Daily News of Newburyport [86] Gloucester Daily Times [86] The Berkshire Eagle [87]

Jay Gonzalez

Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States [88] State-Wide Elected Officials Suzanne Bump, Auditor of Massachusetts Steve Grossman, former Treasurer and Receiver-General of Massachusetts and former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee [47] State legislators Harriette Chandler, State Senate President emerita [48] Barbara L'Italien, State Senator [49] Jamie Eldridge, State Senator [50] Julian Cyr, State Senator [51] Eric Lesser, State Senator [52] William Brownsberger, State Senator [53] Michael O. Moore, State Senator [48] Anne Gobi, State Senator [48] John Scibak, State Representative [54] Paul Tucker, State Representative Sean Garballey, State Representative Tricia Farley-Bouvier, State Representative [55] Sarah Peake, State Representative [51] Dylan Fernandes, State Representative [51] Mary Keefe, State Representative [56] Paul Mark, State Representative [56] James O'Day, State Representative [48] John Mahoney, State Representative [48] Daniel Donahue, State Representative [48] Mary Keefe, State Representative [48] Natalie Higgins, State Representative [48] Local elected officals Michelle Wu, At-Large Boston City Councilor, former Boston City Council President [57] Candy F. Mero-Carlson, Worchester City Councilor [48] Khrystian King, Worcester City Councilor [48] Sean Rose, Worchester City Councilor [48] Molly McCullough, Worcester School Committee Member [48] Dante Comparetto, Worcester School Committee Member [48] Helen Moon, Pittsfield City Council Member John Krol, Pittsfield City Council Member. Individuals Kate Donaghue, DNC and Massachusetts DSC Member [58] Bob Massie, Gonzalez's opponent in the Democratic primary for Governor Labor unions National Association of Government Employees [59] Organizations Progressive Democrats of Massachusetts [60] Massachusetts Democratic Party [61]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [89]	Solid R	September 14, 2018
The Washington Post [90]	Likely R	October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [91]	Solid R	October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [92]	Solid R	September 14, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93]	Safe R	September 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [94]	Safe R	October 9, 2018
Daily Kos [95]	Safe R	September 5, 2018
Fox News [96] [lower-alpha 1]	Likely R	October 9, 2018
Politico [97]	Solid R	October 9, 2018
Governing [98]	Safe R	October 2, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Charlie Baker (R)	Jay Gonzalez (D)	Other	Undecided
MassINC	October 25–28, 2018	502	± 4.4%	68%	25%	2%	2%
Suffolk University	October 24–28, 2018	500	± 4.4%	65%	26%	–	8%
Western New England University	October 10–27, 2018	402 LV	± 5.0%	65%	27%	–	7%
		485 RV	± 4.0%	64%	25%	–	10%
UMass Lowell	October 1–7, 2018	485 LV	± 5.6%	66%	27%	5%	3%
		791 RV	± 4.4%	65%	26%	6%	2%
MassINC	September 17–21, 2018	506	± 4.4%	68%	24%	1%	6%
Suffolk University	September 13–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	55%	28%	–	17%
Suffolk University	June 8–12, 2018	500	± 4.4%	52%	22%	–	25%
MassINC	May 22–26, 2018	501	± 4.4%	60%	20%	1%	19%
MassINC	March 16–18, 2018	504	± 4.4%	60%	21%	2%	15%
MassINC	November 9–12, 2017	503	± 4.4%	59%	19%	3%	18%
MassINC	June 19–22, 2017	504	± 4.4%	55%	22%	1%	20%

Results

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018 ^[99]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Republican	Charlie Baker / Karyn Polito (incumbent)	1,781,341	66.60%	+18.20%
	Democratic	Jay Gonzalez / Quentin Palfrey	885,770	33.12%	-13.42%
	n/a	Write-ins	7,504	0.28%	+0.19%
Total votes			2,674,615	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

References

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External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates

• Charlie Baker (R) for Governor
• Jay Gonzalez (D) for Governor

Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates

• Quentin Palfrey (D) for Lieutenant Governor