Contingent vote

Last updated October 22, 2024

The contingent vote is an electoral system used to elect a single representative in which a candidate requires a majority of votes to win. It is a form of preferential voting. The voter ranks the candidates in order of preference, and when the votes are counted, the first preference votes only are counted. If no candidate has a majority (more than half) of the votes cast, then all but the two leading candidates are eliminated and the votes received by the eliminated candidates are distributed among the two remaining candidates according to voters' preferences.

The contingent vote can be considered a compressed or "instant" form of the two-round system (runoff system), in which both "rounds" occur without the need for voters to go to the polls twice. For this reason, the term instant-runoff voting has also been used for this method,^{[ citation needed ]} though this conflicts with the more common meaning.

It also has similarities to other ranked-choice systems. Unlike the contingent vote, systems like instant-runoff voting (IRV), Coombs' method, and Baldwin's method allow for many rounds of counting, eliminating only one weakest candidate each round. IRV allows a candidate other than the top two in the first count to win.

Usage

A variant of the contingent vote has been used to elect the president of Sri Lanka since 1978.^[1]

The supplementary vote was used to pick directly elected mayors and police and crime commissioners in England prior to 2022.^[1]

In the past, the ordinary form of the contingent vote was used to elect the Legislative Assembly of Queensland from 1892 to 1942. To date, this has been the longest continuous use of the system anywhere in the world.^[1]

Contingent voting was used for Democratic party primaries in the US state of Alabama from 1915 to 1931.^[1]

Voting and counting

In an election held using the contingent vote, the voters rank the list of candidates in order of preference. Under the most common ballot layout, they place a '1' beside their most preferred candidate, a '2' beside their second most preferred, and so on. In this respect the contingent vote is the same as other ranked ballot methods.

There are then a maximum of two rounds of counting. In the first round only first preferences are counted. Candidates receiving an absolute majority of first preferences (i.e. more than half) are immediately declared the winner. However, if no candidate has an absolute majority, then all but the two candidates with the most first preferences are eliminated, and there is a second round. In the second round, the votes of the voters whose first preference had been eliminated are transferred to whichever of the two remaining candidates they ranked the highest. The votes are then counted, and whichever candidate has an absolute majority is declared elected.

Variants

The supplementary vote and the Sri Lankan contingent vote are two implementation variations, in which voters cannot rank all of the candidates but rather are only permitted to express two or three preferences, respectively.

This means that if a voter's marked preferences do not include either of the candidates who survive to the second round, then it will be impossible to transfer the vote, which is therefore declared "wasted" or "exhausted".

Sri Lankan contingent vote

In Sri Lanka, since the 1982 presidential election, a variant of the contingent vote electoral system is used to elect the country's president. As under the conventional contingent vote, in an election held using the Sri Lankan form of the contingent vote each voter ranks the candidates in order of preference, and if no candidate receives an overall majority of first preference votes on the first count then all but the two leading candidates are eliminated and their votes redistributed to help determine a winner in a second and final round. However, whereas under the ordinary form of the contingent vote voters can rank all of the candidates in order of preference, under Sri Lankan contingent voting the voter can only express their top three preferences (which can lead to exhausted ballots). Each direct presidential election going back to the first in 1981 has seen a candidate from one of the two major parties or alliances at the time winning in the first count so never has the second round of vote counting ever been conducted.^[2]

Supplementary vote

Example ballot designs
Two column	Single column
Each voter ranks at least one and no more than two candidates by placing an 'X' in one column to indicate their first choice of candidate and another 'X' in a second column to indicate their second choice of candidate.	A less common form is to print a single column on the ballot paper and require voters to write '1' next to their first preference and '2' next to their second.^{[lower-alpha 1]}

The supplementary vote (SV) is a variation of the contingent vote in which the voter ranks only two of the candidates in order of preference. If a voter's first-choice candidate is eliminated but their second choice is one of the two remaining candidates, their vote is transferred to the second-choice candidate. This means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two, although not necessarily a majority of votes cast in the first count.

The supplementary vote was used in all elections for directly elected mayors in England, including the Mayor of London, and in elections for police and crime commissioners, until 2022, when it was replaced by first-past-the-post voting (FPTP).

History and use

In the early 1990s, the Plant Commission was established by the Labour Party to recommend a new voting system for the Parliament of the United Kingdom. When the Commission reported in 1993, instead of suggesting an already existing system, it recommended the supplementary vote system, which it said had never been used anywhere. In actuality, contingent voting had been in use in Australia as early as 1892.^[1]

Although some commentators credit the head of the commission, Raymond Plant, with the invention of SV, according to others, it was the brainchild of a Labour member of Parliament (MP) at the time, Dale Campbell-Savours and academic Patrick Dunleavy, who outlined and advocated for it in an article for the New Statesman magazine that was published September 29, 1989.^[3]

In 2000, several districts in England introduced directly elected mayors. It was decided to use the supplementary vote for the election of these new mayors, including the Mayor of London, and for the election of police and crime commissioners across much of England and Wales.^[4] The supplementary vote was used for these offices from 2000 to 2022.

In the 2021 London election, a record 5 percent of ballots were wholly rejected, and no candidate achieved a majority of the vote.^[5] The government responded by ending the use of the supplementary vote in 2022,^[6] citing voter confusion with a complex system. However, critics, including the Labour and Green parties, argued that the wasted votes were due to ballot layout and that the change was aimed at benefitting Conservative Party candidates.^[7]^[8]^[9] They also claimed that the supplementary vote was effective in increasing multi-party participation and was popular among voters.^[10]

The histories of two-round voting and other forms of instant run-off voting may be seen as part of the history of SV due to their similarities.

Impact on factions and candidates

The supplementary vote is said to encourage candidates to seek support beyond their core base of supporters in order to secure the second preferences of the supporters of other candidates, and so to create a more conciliatory campaigning style among candidates with similar policy platforms. SV is also likely to improve the chances of "third party" candidates by encouraging voters, who wish to do so, to vote sincerely for such candidates for whom, under systems such as first-past-the-post, they would be discouraged from doing so for tactical reasons.

These positive effects are moderated by the incentives SV creates for voting, in some circumstances, for only candidates from among the leading three.

Political scientists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher noted two flaws of SV:^[11]

First, since the automatic dual-ballot nature of SV dispenses with any need for a runoff two weeks later – as often happens for, say, the election of the president of France – voters cast their second preferences without being certain of which candidates will make the runoff. Consequently, some second preferences will be declared invalid because they bear only preferences marked for eliminated candidates.
Second, it is possible for the victor to fail to achieve an absolute majority overall, for it is not an obligation for a voter to cast a second preference, and even when a second preference is marked, the vote will be ineffective if it is cast for a candidate who does not make it into the top two, when the first preference is marked also for a candidate who does not make it into the second round.

Similar systems

Two-round system

Under the two-round system (also known as runoff voting and the second ballot) voters vote for only a single candidate, rather than ranking candidates in order of preference. As under the contingent vote, if no candidate has an absolute majority in the first round, all but the top two are eliminated and there is a second round. However, in the two round system, voters are asked to return and vote a second time. Because of the similarities between them, the contingent vote and the two-round system can usually be expected to elect the same winner. However, in the two-round system, the voter is permitted to change one's mind from one round to another, even if their favourite candidate in the first round has not been eliminated. It also guarantees that every voter has a chance to express a preference between the top two, unlike the limited forms of contingent vote. Voter turnout may also be higher in the second vote.

Nonpartisan blanket primary

The nonpartisan blanket primary is a variation of the two-round system except the first round does not pick a winner, but instead picks the two highest candidates who will compete in the general election. Because the first round does not pick a winner, there will tend to be higher voter turnout in the second election.

The contingent vote will generally pick the same winner as a blanket primary, except fewer voters in the primary round may lead to a different top-two candidates than if the whole electorate voted in both rounds.

Top-four primary

The top-four primary is a variant of the nonpartisan blanket primary which advances the top four candidates from a single primary, regardless of party, and uses instant-runoff voting in the general election to pick a majority winner.

Instant-runoff voting

As noted above, the instant-runoff voting (or alternative vote) differs from the contingent vote in that it permits several rounds rather than just two. Under the alternative vote only candidate(s) for whom it is mathematically impossible to win are eliminated after each round, and as many rounds occur as are necessary to give one candidate an absolute majority. These differences mean that the contingent vote and alternative vote can produce different results. Because, under the contingent vote, all but two candidates are eliminated in the first round, it is possible for a candidate to be eliminated who would have gone on to win had they been allowed to receive transfers in later rounds.

Notes

↑ This form was used to elect the Mayor of Newham in the 2006 election.

Related Research Articles

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The single transferable vote (STV), a type of proportional ranked choice voting, is a multi-winner electoral system in which each voter casts a single vote in the form of a ranked-choice ballot. Voters have the option to rank candidates, and their vote may be transferred according to alternative preferences if their preferred candidate is eliminated or elected with surplus votes, so that their vote is used to elect someone they prefer over others in the running. STV aims to approach proportional representation based on votes cast in the district where it is used, so that each vote is worth about the same as another.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voting</span> Method to make collective decisions

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coombs' method</span> Single-winner ranked-choice electoral system

Coombs' method is a ranked voting system. Like instant-runoff (IRV-RCV), Coombs' method is a sequential-loser method, where the last-place finisher according to one method is eliminated in each round. However, unlike in instant-runoff, each round has electors voting against their least-favorite candidate; the candidate ranked last by the most voters is eliminated.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nanson's method</span> Single-winner electoral system

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Best-is-worst paradox</span> Same candidate placing first and last in a race

In social choice theory, the best-is-worst paradox occurs when a voting rule declares the same candidate to be both the best and worst possible winner. The worst candidate can be identified by reversing each voter's ballot, then applying the voting rule to the reversed ballots find a new "anti-winner".

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) is a ranked voting method used in single-winner elections. IRV is also known outside the US as the alternative vote (AV). Today it is in use at a national level to elect the Australian House of Representatives, the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea, the President of Ireland and President of India. In Australia it is also used for elections to the legislative assemblies of all states and territories except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, and for the Tasmanian Legislative Council.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exhaustive ballot</span> Voting method

The exhaustive ballot is a voting system used to elect a single winner. Under the exhaustive ballot the elector casts a single vote for his or her chosen candidate. However, if no candidate is supported by an overall majority of votes then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and a further round of voting occurs. This process is repeated for as many rounds as necessary until one candidate has a majority.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Instant-runoff voting</span> Single-winner ranked-choice electoral system

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) is a winner-takes-all multi-round elimination voting system that uses ranked voting to simulate a series of runoff elections, where the last-place finisher according to a plurality vote is eliminated in each round and the votes supporting the eliminated choice are transferred to their next available preference until one of the options reaches a majority of the remaining votes. Its purpose is to elect the candidate in single-member districts with majority support even when there are more than two candidates. IRV is most closely related to two-round runoff election.

The 2009 Burlington mayoral election was the second mayoral election since the city's 2005 change to instant-runoff voting (IRV), also known as ranked-choice voting (RCV), after the 2006 mayoral election. In the 2009 election, incumbent Burlington mayor won reelection as a member of the Vermont Progressive Party, defeating Kurt Wright in the final round with 48% of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral system</span> Method by which voters make a choice between options

An electoral or voting system is a set of rules used to determine the results of an election. Electoral systems are used in politics to elect governments, while non-political elections may take place in business, non-profit organisations and informal organisations. These rules govern all aspects of the voting process: when elections occur, who is allowed to vote, who can stand as a candidate, how ballots are marked and cast, how the ballots are counted, how votes translate into the election outcome, limits on campaign spending, and other factors that can affect the result. Political electoral systems are defined by constitutions and electoral laws, are typically conducted by election commissions, and can use multiple types of elections for different offices.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ranked voting</span> Voting systems that use ranked ballots

Ranked voting is any voting system that uses voters' rankings of candidates to choose a single winner or multiple winners. More formally, a ranked system is one that depends only on which of two candidates is preferred by a voter, and as such does not incorporate any information about intensity of preferences. Ranked voting systems vary dramatically in how preferences are tabulated and counted, which gives them very different properties.

The inaugural Greater Manchester mayoral election was held on 4 May 2017 to elect the Mayor of Greater Manchester. The next successive election was due to be held on 7 May 2020, but due to that year's outbreak of the novel Coronavirus, the election was postponed until May 2021. Subsequent elections are legislatively required to be held every four years thereafter. The electoral system used for the election is the supplementary vote (SV).

The inaugural Sheffield City Region mayoral election was held on 3 May 2018 to elect the mayor of the Sheffield City Region. The mayor will lead the Sheffield City Region Combined Authority. Voting is restricted to the four councils which are constituent members of the combined authority: Barnsley, Doncaster, Rotherham and Sheffield. Together these councils make up South Yorkshire.

The 2014 Oakland mayoral election was held on November 4, 2014 to elect the mayor of Oakland, California. It saw the election of Libby Schaaf, who unseated incumbent mayor Jean Quan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Oakland mayoral election</span>

The 2010 Oakland mayoral election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the mayor of Oakland, California, electing Jean Quan to be their mayor. In early August 2010, incumbent mayor Ron Dellums announced that he would not be seeking reelection to a second term. In November 2010, Oakland also instant-runoff voting to elect its mayor, three city council races and four other local offices, with the elections for the mayor and Oakland council district four requiring multiple rounds of counting. Oakland used instant-runoff voting in the city's remaining elected offices in 2012. IRV was again used in 2014 and 2016, including in the 2014 mayoral election in which incumbent Jean Quan was defeated by Libby Schaaf.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Spare vote</span> Ranked electoral system

The spare vote is a version of single transferable voting applied to the ranking of parties, first proposed for elections in Germany in 2013. This preferential party system is a ranked proportional representation electoral system applying to political parties instead of individual candidates. The spare vote refers to a secondary vote (preference) of the voter, which only comes into play if the first preference for the political party preferred by the voter, is below the electoral threshold. In Germany, there were draft laws for the spare vote system in Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg federal states, but they were not implemented.

References

1 2 3 4 5 Bowler, Shaun; Grofman, Bernard Norman (2000). "The Single Transferable Vote and the Alternative Vote Compared". Elections in Australia, Ireland, and Malta under the Single Transferable Vote: Reflections on an Embedded Institution. University of Michigan Press. p. 40. doi:10.3998/mpub.16507. ISBN 978-0-472-02681-4. The contingent vote ... was used in Queensland from 1892 to 1942 and for Democratic primary elections in the U.S. state of Alabama between 1915 and 1931. It has been used for presidential elections in Sri Lanka since 1978 and in 1996 ... the United Kingdom ... called it the "supplementary vote."
↑ Gajanayake, Manjula; Siriwardana, Thusitha; Isuranga, Hirantha; Jayasinghe, Pasan (2019). "2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election: Election Observation Report" (PDF). Centre for Monitoring Election Violence. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
↑ "Supplementary fudge | Fabian Society". March 21, 2024.
↑ "Supplementary Voting".
↑ "London elections 2021: Record number of mayoral votes rejected". May 10, 2021.
↑ "First Past the Post to be introduced for all local mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections".
↑ "London mayoral election to be changed to First Past the Post system under Government plans". March 17, 2021.
↑ "'Make Every Vote Matter' Says Green Party". June 19, 2021.
↑ "A big change is coming to how we vote for the next Mayor of London". April 7, 2022.
↑ "Priti Patel under fire over plan to change voting system for London mayor". Independent.co.uk . March 16, 2021.
↑ Rallings, Colin; Thrasher, Michael; Cowling, David (2002). "Mayoral Referendums and Elections". Local Government Studies. 28 (4): 67–90. doi:10.1080/714004163. S2CID 155007579.

^ See Electoral Reform Society press release on Torbay election

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[3] This form was used to elect the Mayor of Newham in the 2006 election.

[:0-1] 1 2 3 4 5 Bowler, Shaun; Grofman, Bernard Norman (2000). "The Single Transferable Vote and the Alternative Vote Compared". Elections in Australia, Ireland, and Malta under the Single Transferable Vote: Reflections on an Embedded Institution. University of Michigan Press. p. 40. doi:10.3998/mpub.16507. ISBN 978-0-472-02681-4. The contingent vote ... was used in Queensland from 1892 to 1942 and for Democratic primary elections in the U.S. state of Alabama between 1915 and 1931. It has been used for presidential elections in Sri Lanka since 1978 and in 1996 ... the United Kingdom ... called it the "supplementary vote."

[2] Gajanayake, Manjula; Siriwardana, Thusitha; Isuranga, Hirantha; Jayasinghe, Pasan (2019). "2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election: Election Observation Report" (PDF). Centre for Monitoring Election Violence. Retrieved July 21, 2022.

[4] "Supplementary fudge | Fabian Society". March 21, 2024.

[5] "Supplementary Voting".

[6] "London elections 2021: Record number of mayoral votes rejected". May 10, 2021.

[7] "First Past the Post to be introduced for all local mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections".

[8] "London mayoral election to be changed to First Past the Post system under Government plans". March 17, 2021.

[9] "'Make Every Vote Matter' Says Green Party". June 19, 2021.

[10] "A big change is coming to how we vote for the next Mayor of London". April 7, 2022.

[11] "Priti Patel under fire over plan to change voting system for London mayor". Independent.co.uk . March 16, 2021.

[rallings-12] Rallings, Colin; Thrasher, Michael; Cowling, David (2002). "Mayoral Referendums and Elections". Local Government Studies. 28 (4): 67–90. doi:10.1080/714004163. S2CID 155007579.

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