Highest averages method

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The highest averages, divisor, or divide-and-round methods [1] are a family of apportionment algorithms that aim to fairly divide a legislature between several groups, such as political parties or states. [1] [2] More generally, divisor methods can be used to round shares of a total, e.g. percentage points (which must add up to 100). [2]

Contents

The methods aim to treat voters equally by ensuring legislators represent an equal number of voters by ensuring every party has the same seats-to-votes ratio (or divisor). [3] :30 Such methods divide the number of votes, by the number of votes-per-seat, then round the total to get the final apportionment. In doing so, the method approximately maintains proportional representation, so that a party with e.g. twice as many votes as another should win twice as many seats. [3] :30

The divisor methods are generally preferred by social choice theorists to the largest remainder methods, as they produce more-proportional results by most metrics and are less susceptible to apportionment paradoxes. [4] [5] [6] In particular, divisor methods satisfy vote-ratio monotonicity and participation, i.e. voting for a party can never cause it to lose seats, unlike in the largest remainders methods; in addition, they are not sensitive to spoiler effects. [5]

History

Divisor methods were first invented by Thomas Jefferson to comply with the constitutional requirement that states have at most one representative per 30,000 people. His solution was to divide each state's population by 30,000 before rounding down. [6] :20

Apportionment would become a major topic of debate in Congress, especially after the discovery of pathologies in many superficially-reasonable rounding rules. [6] :20 Similar debates would appear in Europe after the adoption of proportional representation, typically as a result of large parties attempting to introduce thresholds and other barriers to entry for small parties. [7] Such apportionments often have substantial consequences, as in the 1870 reapportionment, when Congress used an ad-hoc apportionment to favor Republican states. [8] Had each state's electoral vote total been exactly equal to its entitlement, or had Congress used Webster or Hamilton's method (as it had since 1840), the 1876 election would have gone to Tilden instead of Hayes. [8] [9] [6] :3, 37

Definitions

The two names for these methods—highest averages and divisors—reflect two different ways of thinking about them, and their two independent inventions. However, both procedures are equivalent and give the same answer. [10]

Divisor methods are based on rounding rules, defined using a signpost sequence post(k), where k ≤ post(k) ≤ k+1. Each signpost marks the boundary between natural numbers, with numbers being rounded down if and only if they are less than the signpost. [11]

Divisor procedure

The divisor procedure apportions seats by searching for a divisor or electoral quota . This divisor can be thought of as the number of votes a party needs to earn one additional seat in the legislature, the ideal population of a congressional district, or the number of voters represented by each legislator. [12]

If each legislator represented an equal number of voters, the number of seats for each state could be found by dividing the population by the divisor. [12] However, seat allocations must be whole numbers, so to find the apportionment for a given state we must round (using the signpost sequence) after dividing. Thus, each party's apportionment is given by: [12]

Usually, the divisor is initially set to equal the Hare quota. However, this procedure may assign too many or too few seats. In this case the apportionments for each state will not add up to the total legislature size. A feasible divisor can be found by trial and error. [13]

Highest averages procedure

With the highest averages algorithm, every party begins with 0 seats. Then, at each iteration, we allocate a seat to the party with the highest vote average, i.e. the party with the most votes per seat . This method proceeds until all seats are allocated. [12]

However, it is unclear whether it is better to look at the vote average before assigning the seat, what the average will be after assigning the seat, or if we should compromise with a continuity correction. These approaches each give slightly different apportionments. [12] In general, we can define the averages using the signpost sequence:

With the highest averages procedure, every party begins with 0 seats. Then, at each iteration, we allocate a seat to the party with the highest vote average, i.e. the party with the most votes per seat. This method proceeds until all seats are allocated. [12]

Specific methods

While all divisor methods share the same general procedure, they differ in the choice of signpost sequence and therefore rounding rule. Note that for methods where the first signpost is zero, every party with at least one vote will receive a seat before any party receives a second seat; in practice, this typically means that every party must receive at least one seat, unless disqualified by some electoral threshold. [14]

Divisor formulas
MethodSignpostsRounding
of Seats
Approx. first values
Adamsk Up 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00
Dean2÷(1k + 1k+1) Harmonic 0.00 1.33 2.40 3.43
Huntington–Hill Geometric 0.00 1.41 2.45 3.46
Stationary
(e.g. r = 13)
k + r Weighted 0.33 1.33 2.33 3.33
Webster/Sainte-Laguë k + 12 Arithmetic 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50
Power mean
(e.g. p = 2)
Power mean 0.71 1.58 2.55 3.54
Jefferson/D'Hondt k + 1 Down 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

Jefferson (D'Hondt) method

Thomas Jefferson proposed the first divisor method in 1792. [12] It assigns the representative to the state that would be most underrepresented at the end of the round. [12] It remains the most-common method for proportional representation to this day. [12]

Jefferson's method uses the sequence , i.e. (1, 2, 3, ...), [15] which means it will always round a party's apportionment down. [12]

Apportionment never falls below the lower end of the ideal frame, and it minimizes the worst-case overrepresentation in the legislature. [12] However, Jefferson's method performs poorly when judged by most metrics of proportionality. [16] The rule typically gives large parties an excessive number of seats, with their seat share generally exceeding the ideal share rounded up. [6] :81

This pathology led to widespread mockery of Jefferson's method when it was realized it would "round" New York's apportionment of 40.5 up to 42, with Senator Mahlon Dickerson saying the extra seat must come from the "ghosts of departed representatives". [6] :34

Adams' (Cambridge) method

Adams' method was conceived of by John Quincy Adams after noticing Jefferson's method allocated too few seats to smaller states. [17] It can be described as the inverse of Jefferson's method; it awards a seat to the party that has the most votes per seat before the new seat is added. The divisor function is post(k) = k, which is equivalent to always rounding up. [16]

Adams' apportionment never exceeds the upper end of the ideal frame, and minimizes the worst-case underrepresentation. [12] However, violations of the lower seat quota are common. [18] Like Jefferson, Adams' method performs poorly according to most metrics of proportionality. [16]

Adams' method was suggested as part of the Cambridge compromise for apportionment of European parliament seats to member states, with the aim of satisfying degressive proportionality. [19]

Webster's (Sainte-Laguë) method

Daniel Webster's method uses the fencepost sequence post(k) = k+.5 (i.e. 0.5, 1.5, 2.5); this corresponds to the standard rounding rule. Equivalently, the odd integers (1, 3, 5…) can be used to calculate the averages instead. [12] [20]

Webster's method produces more proportional apportionments than D'Hondt's by almost every metric of misrepresentation. [21] As such, it is typically preferred to D'Hondt by political scientists and mathematicians, at least in situations where manipulation is difficult or unlikely (as in large parliaments). [22] It is also notable for minimizing seat bias even when dealing with parties that win very small numbers of seats. [23] Webster's method can theoretically violate the ideal share rule, although this is extremely rare for even moderately-large parliaments; it has never been observed to violate quota in any United States congressional apportionment. [22]

In small districts with no threshold, parties can manipulate Webster by splitting into many lists, each of which wins a full seat with less than a Hare quota's worth of votes. This is often addressed by modifying the first divisor to be slightly larger (often a value of 0.7 or 1), which creates an implicit threshold. [24]

Hill's (Huntington–Hill) method

In the Huntington–Hill method, the signpost sequence is post(k) = k (k+1), the geometric mean of the neighboring numbers. Conceptually, this method rounds to the integer that has the smallest relative (percent) difference. For example, the difference between 2.47 and 3 is about 19%, while the difference from 2 is about 21%, so 2.47 is rounded up. This method is used for allotting seats in the US House of Representatives among the states. [12]

Hill's method tends to produce very similar results to Webster's method; when first used for congressional apportionment, the two methods differed only in whether they assigned a single seat to Michigan or Arkansas. [6] :58

Comparison of properties

Zero-seat apportionments

Huntington-Hill, Dean, and Adams' method all have a value of 0 for the first fencepost, giving an average of ∞. Thus, without a threshold, all parties that have received at least one vote will also receive at least one seat. [12] This property can be desirable (as when apportioning seats to states) or undesirable, in which case the first divisor may be adjusted to create a natural threshold. [25]

Bias

There are many metrics of seat bias. While Webster's method is sometimes described as "uniquely" unbiased, [22] this uniqueness property relies on a technical definition of bias as the expected difference between a state's number of seats and its ideal share. In other words, a method is called unbiased if the number of seats a state receives is, on average across many elections, equal to its ideal share. [22]

By this definition, Webster's method is the least-biased apportionment method, [23] while Huntington-Hill exhibits a mild bias towards smaller states. [22] However, other researchers have noted that slightly different definitions of bias, generally based on percent errors, find the opposite result (Hill's method is unbiased, while Webster's method is slightly biased towards large states). [23] [26]

In practice, the difference between these definitions is small when handling parties or states with more than one seat. [23] Thus, both Huntington-Hill and Webster's method can be considered unbiased or low-bias methods (unlike Jefferson or Adams' methods). [23] [26] A 1929 report to Congress by the National Academy of Sciences recommended Hill's method, [27] while the Supreme Court has ruled the choice to be a matter of opinion. [26]

Comparison and examples

Example: Jefferson

The following example shows how Jefferson's method can differ substantially from less-biased methods such as Webster's. In this election, the largest party wins 46% of the vote, but takes 52.5% of the seats, enough to win a majority outright against a coalition of all other parties (which together reach 54% of the vote). Moreover, it does this in violation of quota: the largest party is entitled only to 9.7 seats, but it wins 11 regardless. The largest congressional district is nearly twice the size of the smallest district. Webster's method shows none of these properties, with a maximum error of 22.6%.

Jefferson's methodWebster's method
PartyYellowWhiteRedGreenPurpleTotalPartyYellowWhiteRedGreenPurpleTotal
Votes46,00025,10012,2108,3508,340100,000Votes46,00025,10012,2108,3508,340100,000
Seats11621121Seats9532221
Ideal9.6605.2712.5641.7541.75121Ideal9.6605.2712.5641.7541.75121
Votes/Seat418241836105835083404762Votes/Seat511150204070417541704762
% Error13.0%13.0%-24.8%-56.2%-56.0%(100.%)(% Range)-7.1%-5.3%15.7%13.2%13.3%(22.6%)
SeatsAveragesSignpostsSeatsAveragesSignposts
146,00025,10012,2108,3508,3401.00192,00150,20124,42016,70016,6800.50
223,00012,5506,1054,1754,1702.00230,66716,7348,1405,5675,5601.50
315,3338,3674,0702,7832,7803.00318,40010,0404,8843,3403,3362.50
411,5006,2753,0532,0882,0854.00413,1437,1723,4892,3862,3833.50
59,2005,0202,4421,6701,6685.00510,2225,5782,7131,8561,8534.50
67,6674,1832,0351,3921,3906.0068,3644,5642,2201,5181,5165.50
76,5713,5861,7441,1931,1917.0077,0773,8621,8781,2851,2836.50
85,7503,1381,5261,0441,0438.0086,1333,3471,6281,1131,1127.50
95,1112,7891,3579289279.0095,4122,9531,4369829818.50
104,6002,5101,22183583410.00104,8422,6421,2858798789.50
114,1822,2821,11075975811.00114,3812,3911,16379579410.50

Example: Adams

The following example shows a case where Adams' method fails to give a majority to a party winning 55% of the vote, again in violation of their quota entitlement.

Adams' MethodWebster's Method
PartyYellowWhiteRedGreenPurpleTotalPartyYellowWhiteRedGreenPurpleTotal
Votes55,00017,29016,6005,5605,550100,000Votes55,00017,29016,6005,5605,550100,000
Seats10432221Seats11441121
Ideal11.5503.6313.4861.1681.16621Ideal11.5503.6313.4861.1681.16621
Votes/Seat550043235533278027754762Votes/Seat458343235533556055504762
 % Error-14.4%9.7%-15.0%53.8%54.0%(99.4%)(% Range)3.8%9.7%-15.0%-15.5%-15.3%(28.6%)
SeatsAveragesSignpostsSeatsAveragesSignposts
10.001110,00134,58033,20011,12011,1000.50
255,00117,29016,6005,5605,5501.00236,66711,52711,0673,7073,7001.50
327,5008,6458,3002,7802,7752.00322,0006,9166,6402,2242,2202.50
418,3345,7635,5331,8531,8503.00415,7144,9404,7431,5891,5863.50
513,7504,3234,1501,3901,3884.00512,2223,8423,6891,2361,2334.50
611,0003,4583,3201,1121,1105.00610,0003,1443,0181,0111,0095.50
79,1672,8822,7679279256.0078,4622,6602,5548558546.50
87,8572,4702,3717947937.0087,3332,3052,2137417407.50
96,8752,1612,0756956948.0096,4712,0341,9536546538.50
106,1111,9211,8446186179.00105,7901,8201,7475855849.50
115,5001,7291,66055655510.00115,2381,6471,58153052910.50
Seats104322Seats114411

Example: All systems

The following shows a worked-out example for all voting systems. Notice how Huntington-Hill and Adams' methods give every party one seat before assigning any more, unlike Webster's or Jefferson's.

Jefferson methodWebster methodHuntington–Hill methodAdams method
partyYellowWhiteRedGreenBluePinkYellowWhiteRedGreenBluePinkYellowWhiteRedGreenBluePinkYellowWhiteRedGreenBluePink
votes47,00016,00015,90012,0006,0003,10047,00016,00015,90012,0006,0003,10047,00016,00015,90012,0006,0003,10047,00016,00015,90012,0006,0003,100
seats522100422110421111322111
votes/seat9,4008,0007,95012,00011,7508,0007,95012,0006,00011,7508,00015,90012,0006,0003,10015,6678,0007,95012,0006,0003,100
seatseat allocationseat allocationseat allocationseat allocation
147,00047,000
223,50016,000
316,00015,900
415,90015,667
515,66712,000
612,0009,400
711,7506,71433,23447,000
89,4006,00019,18723,500
98,0005,33313,56716,000
107,9505,30011,31415,900

Properties

Monotonicity

Divisor methods are generally preferred by mathematicians to largest remainder methods [28] because they are less susceptible to apportionment paradoxes. [29] In particular, divisor methods satisfy population monotonicity, i.e. voting for a party can never cause it to lose seats. [29] Such population paradoxes occur by increasing the electoral quota, which can cause different states' remainders to respond erratically. [6] :Tbl.A7.2 Divisor methods also satisfy resource or house monotonicity, which says that increasing the number of seats in a legislature should not cause a state to lose a seat. [29] [6] :Cor.4.3.1

Min-Max inequality

Every divisor method can be defined using the min-max inequality. Letting brackets denote array indexing, an allocation is valid if-and-only-if: [12] :78–81

max votes[party]/ post(seats[party]) ≤ min votes[party]/ post(seats[party]+1)

In other words, it is impossible to lower the highest vote average by reassigning a seat from one party to another. Every number in this range is a possible divisor. If the inequality is strict, the solution is unique; otherwise, there is an exactly tied vote in the final apportionment stage. [12] :83

Method families

The divisor methods described above can be generalized into families.

Generalized average

In general, it is possible to construct an apportionment method from any generalized average function, by defining the signpost function as post(k) = avg(k, k+1). [12]

Stationary family

A divisor method is called stationary [30] :68 if for some real number , its signposts are of the form . The Adams, Webster, and Jefferson methods are stationary, while Dean and Huntington-Hill are not. A stationary method corresponds to rounding numbers up if they exceed the weighted arithmetic mean of k and k+1. [12] Smaller values of r are friendlier to smaller parties. [23]

Danish elections allocate leveling seats at the province level using-member constituencies. It divides the number of votes received by a party in a multi-member constituency by 0.33, 1.33, 2.33, 3.33 etc. The fencepost sequence is given by post(k) = k+13; this aims to allocate seats closer to equally, rather than exactly proportionally. [31]

Power mean family

The power mean family of divisor methods includes the Adams, Huntington-Hill, Webster, Dean, and Jefferson methods (either directly or as limits). For a given constant p, the power mean method has signpost function post(k) = pkp + (k+1)p. The Huntington-Hill method corresponds to the limit as p tends to 0, while Adams and Jefferson represent the limits as p tends to negative or positive infinity. [12]

The family also includes the less-common Dean's method for p=-1, which corresponds to the harmonic mean. Dean's method is equivalent to rounding to the nearest average—every state has its seat count rounded in a way that minimizes the difference between the average district size and the ideal district size. For example: [32] :29

The 1830 representative population of Massachusetts was 610,408: if it received 12 seats its average constituency size would be 50,867; if it received 13 it would be 46,954. So, if the divisor were 47,700 as Polk proposed, Massachusetts should receive 13 seats because 46,954 is closer to 47,700 than is 50,867.

Rounding to the vote average with the smallest relative error once again yields the Huntington-Hill method because |log(xy)| = |log(yx)|, i.e. relative differences are reversible. This fact was central to Edward V. Huntington's use of relative (instead of absolute) errors in measuring misrepresentation, and to his advocacy for the Huntington-Hill technique: [33] Huntington argued the choice of apportionment method should not depend on how the equation for equal representation is rearranged, and only relative errors (i.e. the Huntington-Hill technique) satisfy this property. [32] :53

Stolarsky mean family

Similarly, the Stolarsky mean can be used to define a family of divisor methods that minimizes the generalized entropy index of misrepresentation. [34] This family includes the logarithmic mean, the geometric mean, the identric mean and the arithmetic mean. The Stolarsky means can be justified as minimizing these misrepresentation metrics, which are of major importance in the study of information theory. [35]

Modifications

Thresholds

Many countries have electoral thresholds for representation, where parties must win a specified fraction of the vote in order to be represented; parties with fewer votes than the threshold requires for representation are eliminated. [24] Other countries modify the first divisor to introduce a natural threshold; when using Webster's method, the first divisor is often set to 0.7 or 1.0 (the latter being called the full-seat modification). [24]

Majority-preservation clause

A majority-preservation clause guarantees any party winning a majority of the vote will receive at least half the seats in a legislature. [24] Without such a clause, it is possible for a party with slightly more than half the vote to receive just barely less than half the seats (if using a method other than D'Hondt). [24] This is typically accomplished by adding seats to the legislature until an apportionment that preserves the majority for a parliament is found. [24]

Quota-capped divisor method

A quota-capped divisor method is an apportionment method where we begin by assigning every state its lower quota of seats. Then, we add seats one-by-one to the state with the highest votes-per-seat average, so long as adding an additional seat does not result in the state exceeding its upper quota. [36] However, quota-capped divisor methods violate the participation criterion (also called population monotonicity)—it is possible for a party to lose a seat as a result of winning more votes. [37] :Tbl.A7.2

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Party-list proportional representation</span> Family of voting systems

Party-list proportional representation (list-PR) is a system of proportional representation based on preregistered political parties, with each party being allocated a certain number of seats roughly proportional to their share of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Droop quota</span> Quantity of votes in election studies

In the study of electoral systems, the Droop quota is the minimum number of supporters a party or candidate needs to receive in a district to guarantee they will win at least one seat in a legislature.

The D'Hondt method, also called the Jefferson method or the greatest divisors method, is an apportionment method for allocating seats in parliaments among federal states, or in proportional representation among political parties. It belongs to the class of highest-averages methods. Compared to ideal proportional representation, the D'Hondt method reduces somewhat the political fragmentation for smaller electoral district sizes, where it favors larger political parties over small parties.

The Webster method, also called the Sainte-Laguë method, is a highest averages apportionment method for allocating seats in a parliament among federal states, or among parties in a party-list proportional representation system. The Sainte-Laguë method shows a more equal seats-to-votes ratio for different sized parties among apportionment methods.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Victor D'Hondt</span> Belgian lawyer and jurist (1841–1901)

Victor Joseph Auguste D'Hondt was a Belgian lawyer and jurist of civil law at Ghent University. He devised a procedure, the D'Hondt method, which he first described in 1878, for allocating seats to candidates in party-list proportional representation elections. The method has been adopted by a number of countries, including Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Fiji, Finland, Israel, Japan, North Macedonia, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovenia, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Iceland, Uruguay and Wales. A modified D'Hondt system is used for elections to the London Assembly and the Scottish Parliament.

The quota methods are a family of apportionment rules, i.e. algorithms for distributing the seats in a legislative body among a number of administrative divisions. The quota methods are based on calculating a fixed electoral quota, i.e. a given number of votes needed to win a seat. This is used to calculate each party's seat entitlement. Every party is assigned the integer portion of this entitlement, and any seats left over are distributed according to a specified rule.

The Imperiali quota or pseudoquota is an inadmissible electoral quota named after Belgian senator Pierre Imperiali. Some election laws have mandated it as the number of votes needed to earn a seat in single transferable vote or largest remainder elections.

In the study of apportionment, the Harequota is the number of voters represented by each legislator under an idealized system of proportional representation, where every legislator represents an equal number of voters. The Hare quota is the total number of votes divided by the number of seats to be filled. The Hare quota was used in the original proposal for a single transferable vote system, and is still occasionally used, although it has since been largely supplanted by the Droop quota.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Huntington–Hill method</span> Proportional electoral system

The Huntington–Hill method, sometimes called method of equal proportions, is a highest averages method for assigning seats in a legislature to political parties or states. Since 1941, this method has been used to apportion the 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives following the completion of each decennial census.

In proportional representation systems, an electoral quota is the number of votes a candidate needs to be guaranteed election.

Biproportional apportionment is a proportional representation method to allocate seats in proportion to two separate characteristics. That is, for two different partitions each part receives the proportional number of seats within the total number of seats. For instance, this method could give proportional results by party and by region, or by party and by gender/ethnicity, or by any other pair of characteristics.

  1. Example: proportional by party and by region
  2. Then, as nearly as possible given the totals for each region and each party:

In mathematics and social choice, apportionment problems are a class of fair division problems where the goal is to divide (apportion) a whole number of identical goods fairly between multiple groups with different entitlements. The original example of an apportionment problem involves distributing seats in a legislature between different federal states or political parties. However, apportionment methods can be applied to other situations as well, including bankruptcy problems, inheritance law, manpower planning, and rounding percentages.

House monotonicity is a property of apportionment methods. These are methods for allocating seats in a parliament among federal states. The property says that, if the number of seats in the "house" increases, and the method is re-activated, then no state should have fewer seats than it previously had. A method that fails to satisfy house-monotonicity is said to have the Alabama paradox.

In social choice theory, a function satisfies voter anonymity, neutrality, or symmetry if the rule does not discriminate between different voters ahead of time; in other words, it does not matter who casts which vote. Formally, this is defined as saying the rule returns the same outcome if the vector of votes is permuted arbitrarily.

Seat bias is a property describing methods of apportionment. These are methods used to allocate seats in a parliament among federal states or among political parties. A method is biased if it systematically favors small parties over large parties, or vice versa. There are several mathematical measures of bias, which can disagree slightly, but all measures broadly agree that rules based on Droop's quota or Jefferson's method are strongly biased in favor of large parties, while rules based on Webster's method, Hill's method, or Hare's quota are effectively unbiased.

Coherence, also called uniformity or consistency, is a criterion for evaluating rules for fair division. Coherence requires that the outcome of a fairness rule is fair not only for the overall problem, but also for each sub-problem. Every part of a fair division should be fair.

Vote-ratio, weight-ratio, or population-ratio monotonicity is a property of some apportionment methods. It says that if the entitlement for grows at a faster rate than , should not lose a seat to . More formally, if the ratio of votes or populations increases, then should not lose a seat while gains a seat. Apportionments violating this rule are called population paradoxes.

Balance or balancedness is a property of apportionment methods, which are methods of allocating identical items between among agens, such as dividing seats in a parliament among political parties or federal states. The property says that, if two agents have exactly the same entitlements, then the number of items they receive should differ by at most one. So if two parties win the same number of votes, or two states have the same populations, then the number of seats they receive should differ by at most one.

Static population-monotonicity, also called concordance, says that a party with more votes should not receive a smaller apportionment of seats. Failures of concordance are often called electoral inversions or majority reversals.

In mathematics and apportionment theory, a signpost sequence is a sequence of real numbers, called signposts, used in defining generalized rounding rules. A signpost sequence defines a set of signposts that mark the boundaries between neighboring whole numbers: a real number less than the signpost is rounded down, while numbers greater than the signpost are rounded up.

References

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